2024 MLB Cy Young Odds and Predictions

Sports betting sites are constantly updating their MLB Cy Young odds as the season progresses. The pool of candidates in each league seems to be thinning as we near the halfway point of the 2024 campaign. Betting on the Cy Young Award can be a profitable endeavor if you know where to find an edge in the odds.

Here, I’ll take a deep dive into the current odds for the AL and NL Cy Young Awards and provide my predictions for who will take home the hardware. I’ll kick it off with the American League and then move on to the National League by breaking down the strengths and recent performances of the top candidates.

2024 AL Cy Young Odds

It’s early, but the AL Cy Young race looks a little top-heavy. Tarik Skubal and Corbin Burnes seem to have separated themselves from the field, while no other player has better than +900 odds to win the trophy. Garrett Crochet – who checks in with the third-best odds – may not even be in the AL if the White Sox opt to trade him before next month’s deadline.

Here are the latest odds via BetOnline:

Tarik Skubal (+170)

Tarik Skubal has emerged as the frontrunner for the AL Cy Young Award. With an impressive combination of velocity, control, and a deep arsenal of pitches, Skubal has been arguably the best pitcher in the sport all year. His 29.1% strikeout rate is among the best in the league, and his ability to limit walks and home runs has solidified his status as the leading candidate.

Skubal’s consistency and ability to pitch effectively against both left-handed and right-handed hitters give him a significant advantage. The Tigers aren’t likely to punch a ticket to the postseason in October, but Cy Young voters typically don’t take team success into account the same way they do with MVP voting. So, I wouldn’t expect Skubal to be punished if Detroit falls short of qualifying for the playoffs.

In terms of wins above replacement (WAR), Skubal hasn’t been the best pitcher in the league, however. He’s 24th among all players with an fWAR of 2.8, which is the fourth-highest mark of AL hurlers.

Corbin Burnes (+250)

Corbin Burnes – a former NL Cy Young winner with Milwaukee – is in the midst of a stellar first season in Baltimore. Known for his exceptional command and devastating cutter, Burnes has been among the game’s elite pitchers for the last handful of years. His ability to miss bats and generate weak contact makes him a formidable foe, though his K-rate isn’t quite as high this season (23.9%) as it was earlier in his career.

Burnes’ proven track record and ability to perform under pressure make him a compelling bet at the current +250 AL Cy Young odds. Baltimore has been among the AL’s best teams all season, so it would make sense for voters to want to reward some of their top performers accordingly.

All things considered, though, Skubal is simply having a better season. Burnes’ 2.2 WAR is the highest mark on the Baltimore staff, but he’s well behind a few other contenders in that regard.

Garrett Crochet (+900)

Garrett Crochet has come out of nowhere to emerge as one of the best pitchers in the game. Crochet was a former top prospect for the White Sox, but injuries have derailed him in recent seasons. This is actually Crochet’s first season as a starter at the MLB level. He has made a seamless transition from the bullpen, however, and owns the highest strikeout rate among starters in all of baseball (34.9%). His raw talent and potential make him an intriguing pick for bettors looking for value at his +900 AL Cy Young odds.

Crochet’s ability to overpower hitters and elite strikeout stuff make him a valuable candidate. His youth and potential for growth add an exciting dimension to his Cy Young bid. However, there’s a chance the White Sox will move him for a decent haul before the trade deadline in July. If he finished his season in the National League, he’s not going to be winning AL Cy Young honors, of course.

Crochet’s 3.2 fWAR on the year is the second-highest mark among AL pitchers.

Tanner Houck (+900)

Tanner Houck has quietly put together a stellar season, and he’s become the ace of an otherwise mediocre Boston rotation. Houck’s unique delivery and effective mix of pitches have kept hitters off balance. I could’ve given you 10 guesses as to which pitcher leads the league in fWAR, and I can’t imagine you would’ve come up with Houck’s name. At 3.6 fWAR, he’s trailing only Gunnar Henderson, Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, Shohei Ohtani, Bryce Harper, and Bobby Witt Jr. among all players.

The 27-year-old is 7-5 on the year with a tidy 2.18 ERA. His 3.03 SIERA suggests some regression could be on the way, but a 3.03 SIERA is still among the best in the league, too. It’s also worth remembering that Houck pitches half of his games in Fenway Park, one of the league’s most hitter-friendly environments.

His mix of strikeouts (24.3%) and ground balls (55.9%) make him a tough customer, and he’s been particularly deadly against right-handed hitters.

Logan Gilbert (+1300)

The Mariners have arguably the best starting rotation in baseball, yet Logan Gilbert has been the standout. The right-hander is only 5-4 through 16 starts, but his 2.71 ERA ranks among the league leaders. It’s also a marked improvement on the 3.73 mark he posted a season ago.

As is the case with Houck, Gilbert’s 3.46 SIERA looks a little more pedestrian, however. Gilbert is only around average in terms of Ks (24.6%), but he would presumably start Game 1 for Seattle in a hypothetical playoff series. In a rotation that also features Luis Castillo, George Kirby, and Bryce Miller, that’s no small feat.

Gilbert’s +1300 Cy Young odds are admittedly alluring, but the overall numbers put him well behind some of the other leading contenders.

Who Will Win AL Cy Young?

Predicting the winner of the AL Cy Young Award is always challenging due to the depth of talent in the league. However, based on current performances and trends, Skubal has the edge. His combination of strikeout ability, control, and durability sets him apart from the competition.

Skubal’s numbers are better than Burnes’ across the board, and his breakout has generated plenty of headlines. While Burnes has the experience and track record, Skubal’s breakthrough season might be enough to sway the voters in his favor. If Skubal can continue his dominant form through the second half of the season, he is likely to take home the award.

AL Cy Young Bet: Tarik Skubal (+170)

2024 NL Cy Young Odds

The National League Cy Young race is a bit more competitive, with 3 players having +350 odds or better to win the award. The NL side also features a fun mix of established stars and rising young talents.

Below are the latest odds for the top contenders:

Zack Wheeler (+300)

The Phillies’ ace, Zack Wheeler, has been a dominant force in the National League. Wheeler is 9-4 with a 2.73 ERA for the NL’s best team, and he continues to defy expectations as a late-bloomer. Wheeler was a fairly average pitcher earlier in his career with the Mets, but he’s transformed into a legitimate workhorse since inking a big-money contract to play for the Phillies prior to the 2020 campaign.

Wheeler has been among the league’s best pitchers ever since, yet his next Cy Young Award will be the first of his career. He finished sixth in the voting last season, well behind the winner, Blake Snell. I mentioned that voters don’t necessarily reward the best pitcher on the best team with Cy Young honors, but Wheeler could be an exception.

The +300 odds are alluring for a favorite, especially compared to the +170 number we have on Skubal on the AL side.

Tyler Glasnow (+310)

Tyler Glasnow’s resurgence this season has been remarkable. Known for his overpowering fastball and sharp breaking ball, Glasnow has been nearly unhittable since donning Dodger blue for the first time on Opening Day. The LA native came home in an offseason trade from Tampa Bay, and he’s been the anchor of an injury-riddled staff all year long.

Glasnow has battled countless injuries in his career, but he’s completely unhittable now that he’s operating at full strength. Glasnow is 8-5 with a 2.88 ERA, while his 35.2% strikeout rate is among the best in baseball for a starting pitcher. Opposing hitters have hit just .173 against him, and his 2.50 SIERA makes that incredibly low ERA look like the real deal.

It’s worth wondering whether the Dodgers would even be leading the NL West without him. With Clayton Kershaw, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Dustin May, Tony Gonsolin, and Walker Buehler all currently on the injured list, Glasnow has absolutely carried a makeshift staff to this point. At +310, Glasnow is my top bet to win the award among the favorites.

Ranger Suarez (+350)

Ranger Suarez has been one of the league’s biggest surprises of the season. His transition to a full-time starting role has been seamless, and everything has come together for him this term. Suarez’s ability to induce ground balls and limit home runs has been particularly impressive. He’s known primarily for his groundball ability (53%), but Suarez is also sporting a solid 26% strikeout rate.

Suarez is among the league leaders in ERA (2.01), and he’s only allowed 6 home runs across his first 16 games. Whether he can maintain that level of production is another story. Suarez is hardly a household name compared to established aces like Wheeler and Glasnow, so it’s worth wondering whether the regression monster will be coming for him at some point.

Chris Sale (+800)

Chris Sale’s return to form has been a major storyline this season and a bright spot in an otherwise middling season in Atlanta. After battling injuries in recent years, Sale has regained his dominant stuff and command. If he can find a way to stay healthy, there’s no reason to believe Sale won’t be in the running for NL Cy Young this fall.

That the former World Series champion is having this kind of bounce-back season at age 35 is no small feat. Sale is another pitcher racking up the Ks in bunches (31.4%) along with one of the lowest walk rates (4.7%) in the sport. Sale’s 2.91 ERA is actually higher than his 2.61 SIERA, which is a true rarity for a guy with a sub-3.00 ERA.

Max Fried (+900)

Sale’s teammate, Max Fried, has consistently been among the NL’s best pitchers. He won’t overpower hitters with massive strikeout numbers like some of the other top contenders, but his steady greatness shouldn’t go overlooked.

Fried has pitched to a 3.00 ERA on the year after a fairly rough start in April. His 3.44 SIERA is in line with that ERA, while his 60.6% groundball rate is the second-highest in the league among starters. Only Houston’s Framber Valdez (62.3%) has managed to keep the ball on the ground at a better clip.

Who Will Win NL Cy Young?

The NL Cy Young race is incredibly close, with several pitchers making strong cases for the award. Wheeler is a worthy favorite at the moment, but we’ve got a long way to go with the season not coming to a close until the beginning of October.

I’m happy to fade Suarez at his current +350 NL Cy Young odds. Without a proven track record, I’m skeptical of his chances of keeping it going. Given the slight discrepancy at the top, I’m thrilled to nab the extra upside that comes with Glasnow at +310 compared to Wheeler at +300.

NL Cy Young Bet: Tyler Glasnow (+310)