2024 AEW Forbidden Door Odds and Predictions 

On Sunday, June 30, AEW will be live from the UBS Arena in Long Island, New York, for their annual Forbidden Door PPV. This is the third installment of an exciting pay per view franchise that features wrestlers from AEW, NJPW, CMLL, Stardom and more.  

An AEW Forbidden Door Preshow will begin at 7pm ET. The PPV action is set to begin at 8pm ET for a $49.99 price tag. The featured bout of the night is an exciting matchup as AEW World Champion Swerve Strickland defends his title against the International Champion Will Ospreay. However, the International title will not be on the line.  

Currently, AEW is still adding to the Forbidden Door lineup. So, we’ll examine the latest AEW odds for the confirmed matches, courtesy of the top sports betting sites, and make our Forbidden Door predictions.  

AEW Forbidden Door Card 

The following matches have been confirmed as of this writing: 

AEW Forbidden Door Predictions 

The following AEW predictions are for the confirmed Forbidden Door matches. Not all matches have available odds as of this writing.   

AEW Women’s Tag-Team Match 

• Kris Statlander & Momo Watanabe (NA) 

• Willow Nightingale & Tam Nakano (NA) 

This AEW Women’s tag-team match has been booked for the Forbidden Door Preshow. I wouldn’t be surprised if AEW adds another match to this hour of Preshow action in a last-minute effort to fill out the show.  

Kris Statlander and Willow Nightingale are embroiled in a heated rivalry that has been ongoing since the former turned on the latter after Double or Nothing. Statlander has found ways to continue to harass Nightingale over the last month including taking shots at her former friend Orange Cassidy.  

AEW has found a way to keep this feud going by adding Momo Watanabe and Tam Nakano to the match not only for some international flavor, but to also keep from Statlander or Nightingale taking any losses right now.  

You can safely bet on Watanabe or Nakano taking the pinfall in this matchup. Will AEW give Nightingale some momentum with a tag-team victory or keep Statlander looking strong and heelish? I vote for the latter. A heel Statlander with a lot of momentum and fan equity will make for a bigger storyline when she loses than having her suffer any defeats along the way, even in a tag-team match.  

Go with Team Statlander to cheat and score the victory as Nakano eats the pinfall for Team Nightingale. This rivalry should continue to All-In Wembley where Willow can finally get her revenge.  

AEW Bet: Kris Statlander & Momo Watanabe (NA) 

AEW Trios Match 

• The Learning Tree (NA) 

• Samoa Joe, Hook, Shibata (NA) 

As much as people like to complain about Chris Jericho overstaying his welcome and sucking the life out of television time, the man just keeps on reinventing himself and finding ways to stay relevant. Even if that relevancy is beyond annoying.  

The latest incarnation of Jericho is a Learning Tree gimmick where he comes off as overzealous motivational speaker and teacher. It’s all a veiled attempt to insult others and annoy the fans. Yet, in some cities, Jericho is actually drawing a loud pop. “Hi Guys!” 

With this new faction, “the Ocho” has taken Big Bill and Byran Keith under his wing and calls them his branches. I’m not sure anyone will ever be able to get Big Bill “over” the way Enzo Amore did in WWE. Nevertheless, at least he’s getting ring time, air time, and trending in a direction of relevance. The addition of Keith to this growing stable was rather surprising.  

The Learning Tree will take on Hook, Samoa Joe and Katsuyori Shibata in a trios match. This feud has grown out of a rivalry between Jericho and Hook over the FTW title, which Jericho beat Hook for and rebranded it. Now, Jericho is called the “For The World” champion.  

Heading into the June 26^th episode of Dynamite, The Learning Tree was looking for a third partner as Keith suffered an arm injury at the feet of Shibata. Jericho came out and revealed a video of their third partner for Forbidden Door. The legendary Minoru Suzuki appeared on the screen. Unfortunately, it wasn’t to team with Jericho, but to challenge him to a match for the FTW title.  

After things blow up in face of Jericho, Samoa Joe, Hook and Shibata come to the ring to rub Jericho’s nose in his embarrassing moment. Eventually, The Learning Tree get beat up and leave the ring.  

Spoiler Alert!  

On the June 29^th episode of Collision, The Learning Tree are once again outnumbered by Samoa Joe, Hook and Shibata. However, this time, Jeff Cobb comes down to the ring to make the save. He will be the third member of The Learning Tree for the Forbidden Door PPV.  

Adding Cobb to the match was an excellent choice. Furthermore, having him associated with The Learning Tree on any AEW television will help get him over more. However, don’t call him a branch. Cobb is more of a stump.  

For this trios match, it makes little sense to have The Learning Tree lose a PPV bout so soon. With the amount of television time that Jericho and his posse are getting, a PPV loss makes zero sense. If anything, cheating to win, or a new member joining The Learning Tree and interfering, makes the most sense. Plus, adding Cobb to this trios bout gives it even more of a buzz than before, which only adds to my point of The Learning Tree needing the victory.  

With that said, Shibata is eating the pin in this match. Samoa Joe and Hook are getting a nice push, but Shibata is often viewed as a forgettable on-air personality. I mean, without a phone translating his comments, we wouldn’t even know what he’s saying. AEW dropped the ball with Shibata and that trend continues this weekend as he takes the pinfall loss. 

AEW Bet: The Learning Tree (NA) 

AEW TNT Championship Ladder Match 

• Konosuke Takeshita 

• Mark Briscoe 

• Jack Perry 

• Dante Martin 

• Lio Rush 

• El Phantasm 

Last month, at the Double or Nothing PPV, Adam Copeland defeated Alistair Black in a steel cage match to retain his TNT title. Unfortunately, Copeland suffered a broken leg in a spot where he jumped off the top of the cage. This injury forced Copeland to relinquish the belt.  

The Young Bucks tried to just hand over the title to their Elite teammate Jack Perry. However, AEW owner Tony Kahn stopped that and made a TNT title match at the PPV instead. The ante was upped even higher when it was announced that the PPV bout would be a ladder match.  

For the last few weeks, AEW has held qualifying bouts where the winners would earn a spot in this TNT Championship ladder match. One by one, we eventually filled out the participants:  

• Konosuke Takeshita beat Penta El Zero Miedo 

• Mark Briscoe defeated Brian Cage 

• Jack Perry beat Dustin Rhodes 

• Dante Martin defeated Lee Moriarty  

• Lio Rush beat Action Andretti  

• El Phantasmo defeated AR Fox 

With that said, I have to question the logic behind some of these choices. Sure, wrestlers like Dante Martin and Lio Rush will have some nice spots and high-flying moves. Their fast pace will definitely keep the match entertaining along with Mark Biscoe’s craziness. 

Yet, I could think of several wrestlers that should’ve been in this match ahead of these men. Kyle O’Reilly, Roderick Strong, Ricky Starks, Brian Cage, Rey Fenix, and Juice Robinson are all guys getting plenty of air time who have value with the fans, are former champs or have recently fought for titles. Additionally, they would add more credibility to this match that feels like it’s missing star power. But I digress. 

From this group of participants, there really is only one choice to win the TNT Championship – Jack Perry. Not only will it continue his ascension, but it will also give The Elite more gold and more power. Considering they’re being positioned as the top heel faction in the promotion, any additional storylines added to their group is a good thing. The more layers, titles and feuds, the better it is for the heels and AEW as a whole.  

On a side note, when is AEW going to actually put a title around the waist of Takeshita? The 29-year-old wrestler is a star. They had a strong foundation with his success over Kenny Omega, but have yet to boost him to the next level. This weekend, he will participate in a title match, but still come away with a loss. Takeshita is a great example of AEW’s inconsistent booking.  

AEW Bet: Jack Perry (NA) 

AEW Singles Match 

• Orange Cassidy (+275)  

• Zack Sabre Jr. (-450)  

On the surface, this match appears to be a clash of styles. However, Orange Cassidy can actually wrestle a technical style and that will be on display this weekend despite Cassidy’s Dynamite commentary where he acted like he’s never seen these grappling moves before.  

We all know that Zack Sabre Jr. can stretch just about anyone. And, we all know that Orange Cassidy can entertain and provide fantastic PPV matches.  

Sabre Jr. and Cassidy competed in a four-way match at the 2023 Forbidden Door PPV. Orange Cassidy won the match when he pinned Daniel Garcia and retained the International Title. A few weeks ago, on the June 8^th episode of Collision, Sabre Jr. challenged Cassidy to a match saying that they had unfinished business as a result of last year’s encounter.  

I must admit that I’m very surprised with these odds by BetOnline. Cassidy as a large underdog is either a great way to make some money, or this sportsbook knows something that we don’t. And, after the June 26^th episode of Dynamite, the odds have gone up. Orange Cassidy went from +250 to +275 and Sabre Jr. went from a -400 favorite to -450 odds.  

Speaking of that Dynamite episode, Sabre Jr. and Kyle O’Reilly put on a great technical match with Cassidy doing an amusing job on commentary. Sabre Jr. got the win, to the detriment of O’Reilly, but wasn’t done after the match. In fact, the shenanigans that took place after the match was a jumbled mess and another example of AEW trying to do too much.  

After O’Reilly lost, Orange Cassidy came down to the ring to check on him. Yet, Roderick Strong jumped into the ring and pushed Cassidy out of the way to help O’Reilly. Then, Sabre’s TDMK teammates came out and the three of them appeared ready to attack Cassidy. Tomohiro Ishii came out to save Cassidy and stand beside him. Meanwhile, Gabe Kidd is standing on the apron screaming at everyone.  

Nothing in this segment made sense and the crowd expressed their confusion with silence. Sure, it set up a tag-team match with Cassidy and Ishii defeating TDMK’s Robbie Eagles and Shane Haste on Collision, but that really didn’t move the needle. Ok, on to the PPV bout.  

Unless they have Trent Baretta interfere and cost Cassidy the match, I’m having a hard time seeing any logical outcome that has Orange losing. This man needs some direction and momentum after the destruction of The Best Friends group. He’s also been taking beatings on a regular basis from Baretta and the Don Callis Family.  

Our lovable jean jacket, sunglasses wearing, slow motion striker needs a big win and I believe he gets it on Sunday. Take the underdog to win the match. 

AEW Bet: Orange Cassidy (+275) 

2024 Owen Hart Foundation Tournament Match 

• Bryan Danielson (-1500) 

• Shingo Takagi (+600)  

This year’s edition of the Owen Hart Foundation tournament is stacked with stars like Pac, Claudio Castagnoli, Bryan Danielson, Rey Fenix, and Jay White. Pac already defeated Claudio in a Quarterfinals matchup. He will face the winner of Danielson and Takagi. Jay White defeated Fenix on Dynamite and will face the winner of Jeff Jarrett versus the Wild Card entrant.  

The opening match on this week’s Dynamite saw Danielson’s Blackpool Combat Club teammates battle Los Ingobernables de Japon, which includes Takagi. Like with the ZSJ-O’Reilly match, the post-fight action was filled with chaos. However, this chaos actually made sense and worked not only with advance storylines but also with the live crowd.  

After the BCC picked up the victory, Tetsuya Naito came out and brawled with Jon Moxley. That left Takagi attacking Wheeler Yuta in the ring. Danielson ran down from the commentary table and had a face-to-face confrontation with his opponent on Sunday. It actually gave fans a reason to care more about this PPV bout.  

It was smart booking for AEW to have one of their most popular wrestlers not only in the Owen Hart Cup, but to also have him fighting a top-tier Japanese wrestler in Shingo Takagi at Forbidden Door. However, the match needed this encounter on Dynamite to get fans more invested. These two wrestlers should put on a hard-hitting affair that will entertain all fans in attendance and at home.  

There is no question as to who will win this Sunday. Danielson is on a quest to get back to the top of the AEW mountain and earn a world title shot at All-In. It’s safe to say that he will advance in the tournament. A Semifinals match against Pac is going to be intense, exciting and a must-see encounter. If they give it away for free on Dynamite, that should boost the episode’s ratings.  

AEW Bet: Bryan Danielson (-1500) 

AEW Singles Match 

• MJF (-5000)  

• Hechicero (+1200) 

If I had to guess which match opens up the PPV, it would be this one. Long Island’s own, MJF, will get the crowd on its feet and red hot for the opener. It’s up to the rest of the card to continue that momentum.  

I’m surprised that AEW chose to have MJF take on an international star in Hechicero. Not only is their wrestling styles vastly different, but it feels like an inferior match and opponent for MJF in his hometown.  

Originally, most fans and pundits thought that MJF and Rush would be fighting at Forbidden Door. AEW threw us all a curveball when they decided to book that match on the June 19^th episode of Dynamite. It was a hard-hitting war that entertained fans for roughly 30 minutes. MJF ended up winning, but something tells me that this story isn’t over yet.  

In fact, it looks like Rush could be joining the Don Callis family, which would be good for him since Callis is hated and can work a mic.  

As for this PPV bout, MJF is the largest betting favorite for the entire Forbidden Door card. So, there’s no reason to think he will lose. One can hope for a nice surprise ending, but take MJF to pick up the win and send his Long Island fans into a frenzy.  

AEW Bet: MJF (-5000) 

AEW Women’s World Title Match 

• Toni Storm (-700)  

• Mina Shirakawa (+400)  

Toni Storm has been the face of the women’s division this entire year so far. In fact, ever since she transformed into her “Timeless’’ character, Storm has been one of the best wrestlers in all of AEW. Her post-event press appearances have been even greater than her in-ring performances, which is saying a lot.  

AEW has done a great job keeping Storm involved in meaningful feuds. But this one tops the rest as it’s been a multi-layered story spanning two wrestling promotions and years of wrestling history.  

Mariah May has been Storm’s understudy and even adopted some of Storm’s characteristics and traits. However, prior to coming to AEW, May was in a group with Mina Shirakawa in Stardom called Club Venus. Storm also performed in Stardom from 2016 to 2019.  

So, Storm’s recent appearances with the Stardom promotion not only were a throwback to her past tenure there, but it also expanded on the storyline with May and Shirakawa.  

If you recall, Shirakawa saved May from a post-match beating on the April 10^th episode of Dynamite. Also, we can’t forget all the times these two ladies professed their love and admiration for each other as they celebrated victories with kisses and glasses of champagne. So, not only are Storm and Shirakawa fighting over the AEW Women’s World Title, but they’re also fighting over Mariah May.  

The last seven-plus months have been great for Storm and the AEW women’s division. However, they need to keep the timeless one in the spotlight even longer. To do that, a Mariah May turn on Storm would be the best outcome. Not only would it give Shirakawa a surprising run with the AEW Title, but it adds a built-in feud between May and Storm.  

The betrayal could be played up over several Storm vignettes. This could really keep things interesting in the women’s division as a foundational storyline. Shirakawa could have other feuds in the meantime and be a transitional champ if AEW desires.  

With that said, AEW doesn’t appear to be bold enough to make a move like this and take the belt off of their most popular female star. In fact, pro wrestling betting sites have increased Storm’s odds of winning as she’s gone from -700 to -1500 following this week’s Dynamite.  

In that episode, Storm, Shirakawa and May took on The Outcasts. It was a fun women’s trios match that saw Team Storm pick up the win. After the match, Shirakawa went to smash a bottle of champagne over Storm’s head but the champ ducked and May took the shot. Shirakawa and Storm almost came to blows before referees broke it up.  

Shirakawa’s odds have moved from +400 to +600, which doesn’t bode well for my desire to see the Japanese star pull off the upset. I can envision May betraying Storm and AEW coming up with months of entertaining television until an All-In encounter.  

If you are brave enough to place a small flier on Shirakawa then I commend you. But as Storm’s odds have doubled, and AEW hasn’t convinced me of being brave enough to play the May betrayal card yet, I’m going to take Storm to retain despite my objections.  

AEW Bet: Toni Storm (-1500) 

IWGP World Title Match  

• Tetsuya Naito (-300)  

• Jon Moxley (+300)  

• Draw (+290) 

Here’s a match that will certainly get attention around the globe. Jon Moxley puts his IWGP world championship on the line against Tetsuya Naito in a rematch from their April bout where Moxley won the title. Naito held the belt for three months before dropping it at Windy City Riot in Chicago.  

There’s a growing buzz that Mox could lose the title at the PPV. The oddsmakers certainly believe in this buzz as well, considering Naito is the betting favorite and his odds have doubled this week from -150 to -300. However, some of this buzz is based on rumors and fantasy booking that we could see a Blackpool Combat Club implosion with Claudio costing Moxley the title.  

It would be great to see those two guys feud over the summer, but I don’t think AEW is going to breakup the BCC faction at this point in time. Additionally, I’m struggling to believe that Moxley is going to lose the belt at this PPV. It would make more sense to have him drop the title in Japan than in the States and in an AEW ring.  

I think the odds should be closer to even instead of Naito being the notable favorite. With that said, I’m taking Moxley to retain the belt and set up a future title match in Japan later this summer.  

AEW Bet: Jon Moxley (+300) 

AEW Trios Match 

• The Elite (NA) 

• The Acclaimed & Hiroshi Tanahashi (NA) 

On Wednesday’s Dynamite episode, we saw EVPs Matt and Nick Jackson (The Young Bucks) announced that The Acclaimed will take on The Elite at Forbidden Door. However, The Acclaimed had a nice surprise for The Young Bucks as Billy Gunn pointed to the big screen above the entrance stage and said there’s a President that has different plans for this match at Forbidden Door.  

NJPW President Hiroshi Tanahashi, a long-time rival of The Elite’s Okada, announced that he would be The Acclaimed’s partner at Forbidden Door. How The Acclaimed and Tanahashi knew ahead of time that their would be a trios challenge is something we’re supposed to overlook. Yet, Scissor Ace will be there to even the score.  

If this was Tanahashi in his prime, then I would definitely say his team is winning. However, Tanahashi is past his prime and severely limited in the ring these days. I actually expect Ace to take the pinfall for his team on Sunday.  

With The Acclaimed already beating The Young Bucks on the June 19^th episode of Dynamite, and earning a tag-team title shot, I just don’t see the Bucks and Okada losing a second big match in a row. Perhaps, we get Hangman Page to show up at the PPV and help his Elite teammates get the victory.  

AEW Bet: The Elite (NA) 

AEW TBS Title vs. NJPW Strong Title Match 

• Mercedes Mone (-2000)  

• Stephanie Vaquer (+700)  

I’m looking forward to this match. I think these two women are going to put on a great bout. In fact, if Ospreay and Strickland don’t meet expectations, look for this title vs. title match to steal the show.  

Mercedes Mone might have been a disappointment up until her first match at Double or Nothing, but she has more than made up for that poor booking since then. Mone has put on some great matches in her short time with AEW. The match against Willow Nightingale was one of the best women’s wrestling matches of the year. She also had solid outings against other wrestlers like Sky Blue.  

Stephanie Vaquer is a talented champion. She’s risen to the top of three different promotions and will definitely give Mone a run for her money. Not only is Vaquer the NJPW Strong Women’s champ, but she’s also the CMLL World Women’s champion and CMLL Women’s tag-team champion. In other words, this lady is legit.  

These two wrestled in May 2023, with Mone winning the match. It’s hard to imagine that Vaquer will even the score this weekend. Regardless of the inevitable outcome, I still believe that these two talented workers will put on a great match.  

There’s no value with Mone and there’s no way she’s losing anytime soon in AEW. The “CEO” is going to walk out of Forbidden Door with two championship belts. In a dream scenario, we see Mone win a few more titles and then face Becky Lynch at Wembley Stadium on the All-In PPV.  

AEW Bet: Mercedes Mone (-2000) 

AEW World Title Match 

• Will Ospreay (+425)  

• Swerve Strickland (-800)  

Raise your hand if you are shocked that AEW decided to put Will Ospreay in a world title match so soon. The man has only been wrestling full-time for AEW over the last few months. Not to mention the fact that Swerve Strickland is still just getting going in his world title reign.  

When this match was first announced, I thought that AEW had made a big mistake. They can’t take the belt off of Strickland so soon, and they can’t give Ospreay a loss already. So, the only way to prevent either from losing would be a No Contest or a double count out.  

However, AEW has possibly dropped hints as to how they’re going to escape this predicament. Over the last few weeks, we’ve seen Ospreay distance himself from the Don Callis family. He’s even gone as far as to say that he doesn’t need the Don Callis family. After making that statement, AEW cut to the back where Callis and a few of his family members were watching on a monitor. None of them seemed happy about those comments.  

Most AEW fans have known it was only a matter of time before Ospreay left the Don Callis Family. What better way to have him leave the faction than by having the Don Callis Family cost him the AEW World Championship at Forbidden Door? 

This would protect Ospreay’s aura of invincibility, keep the title on Strickland, and set up a potential rematch at All-In Wembley. It would also give Ospreay a solid feud for the next month or two, while we could see Swerve entertain a returning Hangman Page. That rivalry is not over with and it would make sense to have them fight for the belt.  

Personally, I loved how this week’s Dynamite ended with Swerve Strickland standing over Ospreay’s body after nailing him with a Housecall. It made Strickland look like a beast. However, Ospreay gets his revenge as he nails Strickland with a Hidden Blade at the end of Saturday’s Collision episode.  

Strickland is the bet for this match even though there’s no value with his odds. Ospreay’s time as the AEW World Champ will come. Unfortunately, not this weekend. And, fortunately, not at the expense of Strickland having a short title reign.  

AEW Bet: Swerve Strickland (-800)