The Latest Donald Trump Odds and Prop Bets

For better or worse, Donald Trump is running for president yet again. The 45th POTUS breezed his way to the Republican Party’s presidential nomination earlier this year. As has always been the case with Trump, however, his rise has come with no shortage of controversy.

Back in May, Trump became the first ex-president ever convicted of a crime. A jury in Manhattan found him guilty on 34 different counts related to money he paid to adult film star Stormy Daniels in an attempt to hide their affair during the latter days of the 2016 election. He’ll be sentenced in July, just days before the Republican National Convention.

Could Trump actually serve jail time? If he does, will he be in prison before 2025 or 2026? BetOnline is offering a few Trump-specific props worthy of your attention. Let’s dive in, shall we?

Donald Trump Prop Bets

Trump is a polarizing figure, but you don’t have to have a firm stance on him either way in order to make money betting on him. In fact, it’s probably for the best if you can approach your bets from a neutral perspective. The last thing you want is for potential bias to cloud your mind before you put money on the line.

Will Donald Trump Serve Jail Time Before 2025 or 2026?

• Yes (+200)
• No (-300)

While 34 felony convictions is a lot, it’s still hard to fathom those crimes actually landing a former president in jail. Trump was consistently at odds with Judge Juan Merchan during the trial, however, and it is up to Merchan to impose a sentence. Perhaps Don should’ve thought that through a little bit before making an adversary of the man tasked with deciding whether he goes to prison.

The odds of +200 for Trump serving jail time indicate a relatively low probability, yet the potential payoff is significant enough to attract attention. A +200 bet means that for every $100 wagered, a bettor would win $200 if Trump does serve jail time. On the other hand, the -300 odds for him not serving jail time suggest a stronger likelihood of the ex-POTUS avoiding incarceration. A -300 bet means you would need to wager $300 to win $100. Not great!

Being a former president (and current GOP nominee) comes with its fair share of perks, however. Trump’s candidacy for the 2024 presidential election adds another layer of complexity. His political clout might shield him from certain legal repercussions, as the Justice Department often navigates the delicate balance between law enforcement and political ramifications. This influence is likely a major factor in the higher odds against him serving jail time.

We’re also swimming in uncharted waters. Comparing Trump’s situation to other historical figures who faced legal scrutiny while holding significant political power can be useful. Take ex-president Richard Nixon, who faced impeachment but avoided jail time. That shows how political and legal outcomes can diverge. Trump’s unique position and the polarized political climate make his case particularly complex, influencing both public opinion and the betting markets.

Trump has been indicted in 3 other cases, but none are likely to be adjudicated until 2025 at the earliest. If Trump beats Joe Biden in November, those cases will cease to exist. If you’re betting on Trump to see the inside of a prison cell before 2026, you’re essentially also betting against him to win the election this fall. If your betting site will allow you to, you might as well parlay the “yes” side at +200 with a wager on Biden’s election odds.

While anything is possible, I don’t think there is any chance Merchan will impose a prison sentence on Trump in July. There’s a better chance that some of his other future trials result in jailtime, though I highly doubt he’ll be going to prison at any point before 2026.

Donald Trump Bet: No (-300)

Will Donald Trump Serve House Arrest?

• Yes (+350)

The prospect of Donald Trump serving house arrest is another intriguing prop bet. The odds here are +350, suggesting a less likely, yet still plausible, outcome. Let’s discuss the factors that might lead to such a scenario.

At +350, the probability of Trump serving house arrest is perceived to be lower compared to other outcomes. A successful bet at these odds would yield a $350 return on a $100 wager. This indicates that while house arrest is not the most likely outcome, it remains within the realm of possibility, especially given the unpredictable nature of legal proceedings involving high-profile individuals.

House arrest has been used in cases involving white-collar crimes and individuals of advanced age or significant public standing. Frankly, it’s a way to punish a criminal without actually throwing them into jail. Considering Trump’s age (78) and status (rich, powerful), legal experts might advocate for house arrest over prison time. This precedent is relevant in evaluating the likelihood of this bet.

In high-profile legal cases, plea deals and negotiations often play a crucial role. If Trump’s legal team were to negotiate a deal to avoid the publicity and logistics of a jail sentence, house arrest could be a compromise. Such negotiations would take into account Trump’s public profile, potential security concerns, and the legal system’s capacity to handle a high-profile inmate.

The impact of Trump serving house arrest would be significant, both politically and socially. It could influence public opinion, voter sentiment, and the broader political landscape. For bettors, understanding how such an outcome might be perceived by the public and the media is crucial, as these perceptions can affect betting markets and the odds themselves.

I think it’s much more likely Judge Merchan will sentence Trump to some sort of house arrest than prison time, though I still don’t think either outcome is particularly likely. The +350 odds imply there’s a 22.2% chance Trump gets house arrest. In reality, I’d say the chances are significantly lower than that. Because there is no “no” option on this one, I’d pass on wagering on this prop entirely.

Donald Trump Bet: N/A

Donald Trump Odds Summary

In conclusion, Donald Trump prop bets provide a unique and fun way to engage with ongoing political and legal narratives. Trump is facing all sorts of legal issues, though none, as of now, are all that likely to land him in jail.

Keep an eye on the odds as the 2024 election draws nearer. These odds are likely to shift constantly between now and Election Day, which could present some unexpected betting value if you time your bets correctly.