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To complement your NFL spread, moneyline bets, and totals betting this season, it’s a good idea to find quality props bets that can help you make the most of your bankroll. One of the categories that can help is WR receptions props.
Here, bettors will bet whether or not a wide receiver will go Over or Under a certain number of receptions. The key thing to keep in mind when betting this prop in 2021 is the change in the NFL season.
Remember, the NFL voted to expand the regular season by one game. Teams will now play a total of 17 games as compared to 16 in year’s past. The addition of that one game will have an effect on players’ statistics and receptions is one of them.
With that in mind, here’s a look at the five best bets in this category.
Tyreek Hill Under 89.5 Receptions(-120)
Kansas City Chiefs Team Preview 2021
Hill is an outstanding receiver for the Chiefs, but he is just one cog in the Kansas City machine. QB Patrick Mahomes goes more to TE Travis Kelce, who had over 100 receptions last season. Hill will still get his share of catchers, but for his career he has only averaged 4.97 receptions per game.
If his career number holds true in 2021, that totals 84 catches in 17 games. Now, one thing to consider is that Hill has only played a full season (16 games) once in his career. Even if he doesn’t miss time with an injury, it’s likely he won’t play in the final week of the season. The Chiefs, have been to the past two Super Bowls and have won their division in each of the last five seasons.
If the Chiefs have a playoff spot wrapped up and potentially a No. 1 seed, it’s likely that Hill sits in Week 18. He did last year in Week 17. Take away one game and Hill would need an average of 5.29 catches per game. Hill did average 5.8 per game last year, but that’s the only year he’s averaged more than 5.4. The most receptions Hill has had in a season is 87, which he has done twice. It’s unlikely he plays a full 17 games which is why the Under is the better play here.
Keenan Allen Over 98.5 Receptions (-115)
Los Angeles Chargers Team Preview 2021
Allen was on track to shatter his previous reception high of 104 last season before getting hurt. He had 100 in 14 games. Allen has had three seasons of 100 or more receptions in the past four years. As long as he plays in at least 15 games, hitting Over 98.5 will not be a problem for Allen.
Calvin Ridley Over 98.5 Receptions (-115)
Atlanta Falcons Team Preview 2021
With Julio Jones now in Tennessee, Ridley becomes Matt Ryan’s go-to receiver in Atlanta. Ridley had 64 catches in his first NFL season and 63 last year, but those numbers are going to increase dramatically as Ridley becomes Atlanta’s WR No. 1.
Ridley is averaging around five catches per game, which would put him at 85 in a 17-game season. With his usage rate going up, expect Ridley to easily go Over 98.5 catches in 2021.
Julio Jones Over 77.5 Receptions (-120)
Tennessee Titans Team Preview 2021
Speaking of Jones, he is likely to go Over his total of 77.5 receptions this season. The Titans offense was one of the most prolific in the NFL last season and QB Ryan Tannehill can now spread the ball around to Jones too.
A.J. Brown had 70 catches last year to lead the Titans, but the next two on the list – Corey Davis (65) and TE Jonnu Smith (41) – are both gone and playing elsewhere in 2021.
Since 2014, Jones has had fewer than 83 catches just once. That was last season when he got hurt and played in only nine games. For his career, Jones has averaged 6.28 catches per game. He only needs to average 4.875 catches a game if he plays in just 16 games this season. That will happen, which is why the Over is in play.
Diontae Johnson Under 83.5 Receptions (-115)
Pittsburgh Steelers Team Preview 2021
Johnson somehow managed to catch 88 passes in 2020 for Pittsburgh. He is not QB Ben Roethlisberger’s first option most of the time. It’s either JuJu Smith-Schuster or Chase Claypool that gets the call more often, but Johnson is a decent third receiver…when he catches the ball.
Johnson’s biggest issue is that he drops too many balls. He’s dropped way too many balls in each of his first two seasons in Pittsburgh. He does have outstanding speed, which is why he is still on the roster. Now, in his two NFL seasons thus far, Johnson has averaged 4.74 catches per game. That would put him well below 83.5 receptions in 2021 even if he played all 17 games. Johnson did, however, have 88 last season, an average of 5.86 in 15 games.
With Johnson not Roethlisberger’s top target, look for his catch count to decrease and take the Under here.
