2024 Euro Golden Boot Odds and Predictions

The UEFA Euro 2024 tournament has officially reached the quarterfinal stage. We’ve seen no shortage of drama to this point, though most of the pre-tournament favorites are still alive. Reigning champions Italy bowed out in the round of 16, but there are lots of big-name sides still vying for glory as we enter the final rounds.

The race for the Euro Golden Boot hasn’t generated many headlines just yet, but soccer betting sites – like DraftKings Sportsbook – have been keeping tabs. These odds have shifted considerably since the competition got underway in the middle of June, and we have a new favorite entering the quarterfinal stage. In case you’re wondering, the Golden Boot is the trophy handed to the player who finishes the tournament with the most goals scored.

Which player is the best bet to win the Euro Golden Boot this summer?

Euro 2024 Top Goalscorer Odds

The competition is fierce, and several players stand out as top contenders. Some pre-tournament favorites have fallen by the wayside, clearing the way for a new set of contenders at the top of the odds board:

Cody Gakpo (+450)

Cody Gakpo is the new Euro Golden Boot frontrunner with odds of +450. Known for his speed, technical skills, and goal-scoring ability, Gakpo has been a standout performer for both club (Liverpool) and country (Netherlands). He was one of the breakout stars of the 2022 World Cup, and he’s picked up right where he left off so far at Euro 2024.

Gakpo is one of 4 players with 3 goals scored thus far in the competition. He added to his tally with an impressive inside-post effort in Tuesday’s 3-0 drubbing of Romania. Gakpo had another goal later in the game called off for offsides. One of the questions about Le Oranje heading into the competition was: who will score the goals? So far, Gakpo has answered it emphatically.

When betting on an award like this, you have to consider which players are likely to play the maximum number of games. Obviously, the players who play in more games have more scoring opportunities, which means a better chance to score the most goals.

Gakpo’s Dutch side will face off against Türkiye in the quarterfinals before a showdown with either England or Switzerland in the semis if they get past the Turks. This is undoubtedly the easier half of the bracket, as Spain, Germany, Portugal, and France are all on the opposite side.

The Netherlands haven’t looked perfect to this point, but they don’t have to be perfect to sneak all the way to the final. As of now, I’d say they’re as likely as anybody on their side of the bracket to get there. At +450 Golden Boot odds, Gakpo looks like an increasingly appealing value.

Jamal Musiala (+550)

Jamal Musiala follows closely with odds of +550. The young German sensation has been in remarkable form, showcasing his dribbling skills and clinical finishing. Musiala’s agility and vision make him a constant threat in the attacking third, and he’s showing why he’s earned a reputation as one of Europe’s brightest young talents.

Musiala has scored thrice for the hosts to this point, tying him with Gakpo and 2 others as the co-leaders in terms of goalscoring. Still only 21, the Bayern Munich star has delivered goals against Scotland, Hungary, and Denmark. His tally against the Danes made him the second-youngest player to ever find the back of the net 3 times in a single Euro competition, trailing only Wayne Rooney.

As mentioned, though, Germany will face a tougher path to the final in Berlin. Friday’s quarterfinal clash against Spain is a matchup between the 2 best teams at the tournament so far. It’s a showdown fit for the final. Unfortunately, one of these teams has to go out much earlier than they deserve.

Germany will be favored on home soil, but scoring against Spain in that one will be a tall order. La Roja have an xGC (expected goals conceded) of just 3.4 through their first 4 games of the tournament. Only France (3) and Musiala’s own German side (3.1) have been stingier defensively.

Harry Kane (+600)

Harry Kane, one of the most prolific strikers in the world, has Euro Golden Boot odds of +600. Kane’s experience and goal-scoring prowess are invaluable assets. His track record in international tournaments bolsters his chances, as well. Kane finished tied for 2nd with 4 goals during England’s run to the Euro 2020 final, and he’s bagged 2 thus far this time around.

Unfortunately, England have been far more toothless in attack than many expected coming into the competition. They were able to score 2 late goals to secure a spot in the quarterfinal round against Slovakia, which capped another otherwise unremarkable showing in front of goal. The Three Lions have as much attacking talent as any side in the world, which makes their struggles quite a surprise.

Kane’s goalscoring prowess is well known, but he’s also underrated in terms of creating chances for teammates. The 30-year-old scored 36 goals in his first season in Germany for Bayern Munich, but he also handed out 8 assists along the way. Assists are important in the Golden Boot race, as they serve as the first tiebreaker in the event that multiple players finish the tournament tied for the most goals. Back in Euro 2020, Cristiano Ronaldo took home the Golden Boot thanks to his assist total despite being tied on goals with Patrik Schick.

There’s still time, but Kane has yet to dish out an assist through 4 games at these Euros. England do find themselves on the more favorable side of the bracket, however, so there’s upside in the England captain’s current +600 odds.

Kai Havertz (+1100)

Kai Havertz, with odds of +1100, is another strong contender. Havertz’s versatility allows him to play in various attacking roles, making him a dynamic and unpredictable forward. So far at these Euros, he’s served as Germany’s first-choice striker.

Havertz has scored twice, though both of his goals have been penalties. Havertz converted a penalty in that one on the heels of a handball decision. That Havertz gets the nod as the team’s primary penalty-taker is noteworthy given all of the other options at Julien Naglesmann’s disposal. Obviously, you have a clearer path to the score sheet if you happen to take penalties.

While he does have a couple of goals to his name, Havertz hasn’t had the best tournament to this point, either. That he hasn’t yet scored a goal in open play makes you wonder whether his chances are completely reliant on whether the Germans can continue to draw penalties. Havertz should be confident from the spot considering he’s 2-for-2 on his penalty attempts, but Musiala has scored 3 goals without the benefit of a penalty opportunity.

Kylian Mbappe (+1200)

Kylian Mbappe, one of the brightest stars in world football, has odds of +1200. Mbappe’s blistering pace and exceptional dribbling skills can dismantle any defense. Mbappe opened as a co-favorite with Kane to win the Euro 2024 Golden Boot, but his odds have slipped considerably.

Like England, France have had a shockingly difficult time scoring goals despite boasting the most talented roster of any team in the world. France have mustered just 3 goals to this point. One was a penalty converted by Mbappe. The other 2 were own goals conceded by their opponents. However, Les Bleus have only allowed 1 goal, so they’ve managed to skate through to the quarters.

Mbappe missed the second game of the group stage after suffering a broken nose in the team’s opening win over Austria. He’s played all 90 minutes in each of the last 2 games with a mask on his face, and you have to wonder whether the injury is negatively impacting his play. France haven’t looked as nearly as dangerous as they have in each of their last 3 international appearances.

They’ll also face a stiff test in Friday’s match against Portugal. The winner of the Germany-Spain clash of the titans awaits France in the semis if they’re lucky enough to get past the Portuguese, as well. As a result, I’m quite skeptical that France will make an appearance in the final, which hurts Mbappe’s chances of scoring enough goals to take home the hardware.

Jude Bellingham (+1400)

Jude Bellingham, with odds of +1400, is a rising star known for his box-to-box capabilities. While primarily a midfielder, Bellingham’s knack for scoring crucial goals and his attacking prowess make him a dark horse in the race for top goalscorer. Bellingham has scored twice for England thus far, including a dramatic last-ditch tally in the 95th minute of the Three Lions’ eventual 2-1 triumph over Slovakia in the last round.

Bellingham is on the ball plenty as England’s primary central attacking midfielder, though it’s safe to assume Kane will be the one to take penalties if England ever draw one. That fact alone makes me feel more confident in Kane’s Golden Boot chances, especially considering they’re both tied with a couple of goals apiece thus far.

Because of England’s path to the final, though, I do think Bellingham is a much better value bet at +1400 than Mbappe is at +1200 if you’re in the market for a long shot.

Niclas Fullkrug (+1800)

Niclas Fullkrug has odds of +1800 to win the Euro 2024 Golden Boot. Fullkrug is an old-school striker known for his aerial ability and strength in the penalty area. His knack for scoring headers and his physical presence can be game-changers, especially in tightly contested matches.

Germany haven’t played many of those to this point, but it’s safe to assume they will on Friday against Spain. The Borussia Dortmund standout has scored twice in the Euros despite not having started a game for that loaded German side. If the team is in need of a late goal, you can bet Fullkrug will play a significant role in the latter stages coming off the bench moving forward.

It’s just hard to imagine a Golden Boot winner not playing as a full-time starter, though. Fullkrug is clinical enough to make the most of his opportunities, but those opportunities are few and far between compared to others in the running who typically log 90-plus minutes per game.

Fabian Ruiz (+2000)

Fabian Ruiz, with odds of +2000, brings creativity and precision to the table. Known for his long-range shooting and playmaking abilities, Ruiz can surprise many by finding the back of the net from midfield positions. The PSG man entered the tournament as a fairly unheralded member of Spain’s midfield, but he’s been one of the competition’s standout performers.

Ruiz has bagged a couple of goals through 3 appearances for La Roja, which makes him the team’s scoring leader. That’s no small feat for a team with a Euro-high 10 goals scored, though they’ve largely spread the wealth. Rodri, Dani Carvajal, Nico Williams, Alvaro Morata, Dani Olmo, and Ferran Torres have all scored once, and there are plenty of other players in this team capable of contributing to the score sheet, too.

Unlike most Golden Boot frontrunners, Ruiz isn’t much of a scorer. He mustered just a single goal in 14 Ligue 1 matches for PSG this past season, though he was hampered by injuries. Ruiz isn’t a player who spends most of his time lurking around the penalty area, so he’s not a likely candidate to poach goals the way more attacking-minded players might be.

Ruiz is tied with several players for the co-lead in assists with 2, which does keep him in the Golden Boot running. Unfortunately, I’ll be surprised if he manages to score again in this tournament.

Georges Mikautadze (+2200)

Georges Mikautadze, with odds of +2200, is an emerging talent with a sharp eye for goal. His agility and quick feet make him a constant threat inside the box. Mikautadze’s ability to exploit defensive lapses can yield significant returns.

Mikautadze is a current co-leader with 3 goals to his name at these Euros, though there’s a problem. Georgia were eliminated in the round of 16 with a resounding 4-1 loss to Spain. Unless he dons a fake mustache and shows up in another team’s jersey, he’s going to have a hard time scoring again in this tournament with his team having been ousted.

Donyell Malen (+2200)

Donyell Malen shares the same odds of +2200. Malen’s pace and technical skills make him a dangerous forward. His ability to link up play and finish off chances makes him a valuable asset in any attacking lineup.

Malen has only played in 3 of the Netherlands’ 4 games to this point, and he’s only started once. He was dropped to the bench for Tuesday’s game against Romania after starting Holland’s group stage finale vs. Austria. He proved to be quite the super sub, however, as he bagged a pair of goals off the bench after coming on at halftime in the round of 16.

As a result, it’ll be fascinating to see what Ronald Koeman chooses to do with Malen for the Dutch’s upcoming match against Türkiye. Does he swap Malen back into the starting XI in place of Steven Bergwijn? Or did Tuesday’s effort prove that Malen is more useful to the team as a pair of fresh legs off the bench?

With the Netherlands’ easier path to the final, I don’t mind a flier on Malen’s long +2200 Euro Golden Boot odds.

Memphis Depay (+2500)

Malen’s compatriot, Memphis Depay, checks in with +2500 Golden Boot odds. Depay’s ability to take on defenders and score from set pieces adds a unique dimension to his game.

Depay is one of the Netherlands’ all-time scoring leaders, but he’s only found the back of the net once at these Euros across 4 games. He is entrenched as Koeman’s first-choice striker, and I don’t expect that to change despite his relatively underwhelming production to this point.

Ivan Schranz (+3000)

Ivan Schranz (+3000 is a lesser-known but highly capable forward. Schranz’s positioning and finishing skills have been on display in this tournament, which has made him one of the Euros’ unexpected breakout stars.

Like Mikautadze, however, Schranz’ Slovakian side has already been eliminated from the competition. While he is one of the co-leaders with 3 goals, the best he can do is finish tied with several other players atop the leaderboard. The more likely scenario is for one of the still-active players to pass him before the end of the competition.

Cristiano Ronaldo (+4000)

Of the players with decent odds to win the Golden Boot, Cristiano Ronaldo is the only player without a goal to his name. That’s not for a lack of trying, however. Portugal’s legendary forward has been shooting with reckless abandon since the tournament started. He even started the third and final group stage match despite the fact that Portugal had already punched a ticket to the round of 16. The only reason for the 39-year-old to start an otherwise meaningless game was because he insisted on doing so in a desperate bid to open his Euro 2024 account.

Ronaldo even missed a penalty in the round-of-16 clash against Slovenia, which eventually brought him to tears. That he missed the kick was one of the more shocking things we’ve seen at this tournament, though it’s fair to say Cristiano isn’t what he once was as a player. While he’s still an imposing physical force despite his advanced age, Ronaldo’s finishing ability isn’t as clinical as it was when he was at the peak of his powers.

Ronaldo may score before the end of the Euros, but can he reel off at least 4 goals with a maximum of 3 games left? I wouldn’t put it past him given his incredible résumé, but it’s certainly not the most likely outcome.

Who Will Win the Euro Golden Boot?

The field is loaded with talent, and the Euro 2024 Golden Boot odds are still potentially profitable if you’re smart about the bets you place. Gakpo is a surprising-yet-worthy favorite at his +450 odds, though the Liverpool man is far from the only viable option with so many contenders still in the mix.

Gakpo is my favorite bet on the board at those odds, but I’m also keeping an eye on Kane at +600. I simply refuse to believe England will continue to play as poorly as they have moving forward, and Kane is the most likely to do damage if they do find a way to find their footing.

If you’re in the market for some value options, I’d start with Havertz (+1100), Bellingham (+1400), and Malen (+2200).

Euro 2024 Golden Boot Bet: Cody Gakpo (+450)