2024-25 NFL AFC Championship Odds and Predictions

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As we inch closer to Thanksgiving and the calendar changing from November to December, the AFC Conference odds were shaken up following a few key Week 11 conference games. We’ll break down these matchups in more details below.

With that said, the AFC Conference’s #1 seed has now become a three-team race and it could go down to the final week of the season before we know which team will have home field advantage throughout the Playoffs. And, as we all know, home field advantage gives that team the inside track to making Super Bowl 59.

Unlike the NFC Conference, which appears to be the Detroit Lions running away with the Conference’s top spot, the AFC Conference will be a thrilling race down to the wire.  

Let’s take a look at the latest AFC Championship odds, courtesy of the top sports betting sites, and make our 2024-25 AFC Championship predictions. 

AFC Championship Odds

The Kansas City Chiefs, Buffalo Bills, and Baltimore Ravens are still the top three teams favored to win the AFC Championship. However, the Cincinnati Bengals have seen the biggest drop from +700 to +4000. The Pittsburgh Steelers have seen the biggest jump from +2500 to +800. Let’s break down these teams below.

AFC Championship Contenders

The following NFL teams are considered the odds-on favorites to win the 2024-25 AFC Championship:

Kansas City Chiefs  

The Kansas City Chiefs remain the favorites to win the AFC Championship despite losing to the Buffalo Bills in Week 11. Their quest to three-peat is still intact despite the loss. However, that defeat did close the gap between the Bills and Chiefs.

Unfortunately for the Chiefs, they have been battling injuries on the offensive side of the ball as Isaiah Pacheco has missed most of the season as of this writing. Yet, he will return shortly and give this team a 1-2 punch with Hunt in the backfield.

Perhaps, the biggest loss for the Chiefs has been receivers Marquise Brown and Rashee Rice. Both are out for the season with significant injuries. Rookie Xavier Worthy has been a solid pick for the Chiefs. They also traded for Deandre Hopkins who has flashed his old self at times for the Chiefs.

Yet, this team is struggling to protect the league’s top player in QB Patrick Mahomes who is having the worst statistical season of his career.

No matter how this team spins the loss against Buffalo, they have been exposed and the rest of the conference’s contenders smell blood in the water. Does this mean the Chiefs won’t win the AFC Championship?

Buffalo Bills

Buffalo’s Week 11 win over the Chiefs was a statement to the rest of the league that they’re still a contender despite what critics said of them during the offseason.

Us Bills fans laughed at the so-called NFL pundits questioning whether or not Buffalo can win the AFC East this year. Many were taking the Jets and Dolphins to upend Buffalo. Well, that couldn’t be further from the truth. In fact, Buffalo is on the verge of becoming the first team to win their division in the NFL.

As of this writing, and heading into their Bye Week, the Buffalo Bills are up five games on second-place Miami in the win column. And, let’s not forget that Buffalo has already swept the Dolphins this season.

What made Buffalo’s win over the Chiefs so impressive is that they did it without two of their top passing weapons and one of their best offensive linemen as Dalton Kincaid, Keon Coleman and Spencer Brown were all out.

All three should be back by Week 13. Additionally, what’s being overlooked by most of the so-called national media is the fact that linebacker Matt Milano will return to the field probably in Week 13 or 14 at the latest. This is big news! When healthy, Milano is one of the best three-down linebackers in the league.

So, not only will the Bills get healthier on offense, they will improve their Top 10 defense as well. With that said, Buffalo fans and bettors need to pump the brakes on saying they will win the conference at this point in time.

Let’s not overlook that Buffalo still has to play the 49ers, Rams and Lions following their Bye Week. This will be a tough stretch. That Lions game could be the best matchup of the season. And, it could also be a Super Bowl preview if the Bills can win the AFC.

Baltimore Ravens

As alluded to in the opening of this article, there were a few big Week 11 games that had a big impact on the AFC landscape. In addition to the Bills vs. Chiefs, the Steelers vs. Ravens also sent shockwaves throughout the conference.

Pittsburgh once again beat the Baltimore Ravens proving that the Steelers are this team’s kryptonite. Yet, it wasn’t that they won the game as much as it was how they won. In other words, the Ravens looked mediocre in this matchup as they didn’t score a TD until the final two minutes of the game.

As of this writing, Baltimore has four losses and is sitting sixth in the conference. They have a big game against the Los Angeles Chargers on Monday Night Football in Week 12 that could drop them further in the standings if they lose.

The Ravens have a powerful offense. In fact, it’s one of the best in the NFL. Yet, the Steelers made them look awful. Baltimore also lost to the Chiefs in Week 1. However, they did demolish the Bills.

Yet, Baltimore has also lost to the Browns and Raiders proving that they’re not as elite as we thought they would be coming into the season. Let’s not overlook that they have the worst pass defense in the league and continuously give up big yards and points to inferior opponents.

Pittsburgh shared the blue print for the rest of the league to follow when playing the Ravens. Baltimore needs to get its act together or they could end up missing the Playoffs entirely.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Speaking of the Steelers, this team looks like a true contender in the AFC. Prior to the season, Pittsburgh wasn’t even looked at as an AFC North contender, let alone a Conference favorite. However, their AFC Championship odds went from +2500 to +800 following the Week 11 victory over the Ravens.

The Steelers look like a balanced offense with Russell Wilson at QB. With their strong rushing attack and defense, Pittsburgh is built for the Playoffs. The only question mark coming into the season was their quarterback play. Wilson has answered those questions and has this team looking elite.

A Christmas Day matchup with the Chiefs could decide which team ends up as the #1 seed in the AFC. You can bet the Buffalo Bills will also be interested in that game especially if they can get past the Lions a few weeks prior.

However, Pittsburgh will need to get by the Eagles and the Ravens before playing the Chiefs on Christmas. So, there’s still plenty of work left for the black and yellow in order to get to the top spot in the AFC.

Houston Texans

The Houston Texans have also suffered some key injuries on offense including losing Stefon Diggs for the year with a torn ACL. They got Nico Collins back, but not before he missed five games.

With that said, the Texans sit on top of their division with a two-game lead over the Colts. Houston is expected to run away with the division and be one of the Top 4 teams in the AFC come Playoff time. They do have a win over the Bills just like the Ravens do.

Speaking of Baltimore, they will play the Texans on Christmas Day following the Chiefs vs. Steelers. Prior to the Ravens, Houston will play the Dolphins and the Chiefs as well.

The Texans have showed improvement on both sides of the ball from last year. They actually have a running game with Joe Mixon leading the charge. Additionally, that defense gets after opposing QBs and that has been the Chiefs’ biggest weakness this year. Could we see Houston sneak into the conversation as the #1 seed in the AFC by time Christmas is all said and done?

Los Angeles Chargers

The biggest surprise this year has been the Los Angeles Chargers. After losing key players on offense like Keenan Allen and Austin Ekeler, along with bringing in a new coach and offense, this team wasn’t expected to contend in the AFC West or even make the Playoffs.

However, as of this writing, the Chargers are actually the 5^th seed in the AFC. They’re one spot ahead of the Ravens who they play in Week 12.

Additionally, the Chargers are only two games back of the Chiefs in the AFC West and they will play KC in three weeks. If the Chargers can win that game, they have a very favorable final month of the season with games against the Buccaneers, Broncos, Patriots and Raiders.

Los Angeles features one of the best defenses in the league. They also have a solid rushing attack that led the team over the first half of the season. Justin Herbert and the LA passing attack has really come on as of late and this team looks like it’s finally clicking on all cylinders.

That’s scary for the rest of the division and anyone chasing after the Chargers in the Playoff standings like the Ravens, Broncos, Colts and Bengals.

Could we actually see the Chargers contend for the AFC West and shock the football world?

Cincinnati Bengals

The Chargers are the biggest positive surprise of the season. And, that makes the Cincinnati Bengals the biggest disappointment of the season. Well, they’re actually tied with the New York Jets as the biggest disappointments.

The Bengals just dropped another one-score game to the Chargers in Week 11. That knocked them two games back of the final Wild Card spot. Not to mention, the Colts and Dolphins sit ahead of the Bengals in the standings as all three teams are chasing the Denver Broncos.

Cincy is just 1-6 in one-score games this season. They would need to win the rest of the games in order to have a real shot at the Playoffs. Although it’s highly unlikely; it’s not impossible.

The Bengals play the Cowboys, Titans, Browns and Broncos. However, they also still have two games against the Steelers. In other words, Cincy will need to sweep Pittsburgh in their quest to fight for the final Wild Card spot. I don’t see it happening.

Cincy’s offensive injuries cost them a few games as did the refs in that TNF matchup versus the Ravens. Additionally, the Bengals were foolish for ditching Joe Mixon who has made the Texans a true Playoff contender. Cincy’s ground game is one of the worst in the league and their offensive line is average at best.

The Bengals put themselves in an unfavorable position with their roster makeup and it has led to a team that looks like it will miss the Playoffs for a second straight season.

AFC Championship Predictions: Who Wins The AFC?

As much as I love my Buffalo Bills, and as impressive as the Steelers have looked, until a team knocks off the back-to-back Super Bowl champs, you have to take the Chiefs to win the AFC when it comes to putting money on it.

The Bills and Steelers are certainly capable of beating the Chiefs. I wouldn’t be surprised if Houston beats KC in December. Yet, there’s a difference between regular season wins and postseason wins. Right now, nobody has proven that they can beat the Chiefs in the AFC Playoffs over the last few years.

Bet: Kansas City Chiefs (+225) 

Which Team Will Finish as the AFC #1 Seed?

Currently, the Chiefs lead the Bills and Steelers by one game for the top seed in the AFC. As mentioned, the Chiefs and Steelers play against each other on Christmas Day. Additionally, the Chiefs still play the Texans as well. And, we can’t forget how KC also has two games against the Chargers and Broncos left.

Bottom line, what looked like a cake walk of a division in the preseason is now a tough task for the two-time defending Super Bowl champs.

With that said, you have two options here with this NFL prop bet. You can either stick with the Chiefs to capture the #1 seed in the AFC or you can go with a team that offers better value.

Both the Ravens and Texans each sit with four losses on the season and could easily drop another. They’re far too risky to pick either for this wager. So, the safest approach is choosing between the Chiefs, Bills and Steelers.

Of those three, the Steelers have the best value at +700 odds. Yet, they still have two games versus the Bengals, one more against Baltimore and a Christmas game against the Chiefs. The Bills still have the 49ers, Rams and Lions on the docket.

None of the top teams have an easy remaining schedule. If Buffalo or Pittsburgh lose one more game, then they need KC to lose two more in order to finish in a tie. Do you see KC getting tripped up two more times in their final seven games? That’s the question you must ask yourself.

As of now, I do not see that happening. I think KC could possibly lose to Pittsburgh but still finish a game ahead of the Steelers and Bills to clinch the top seed. And, I’m not sold on the Chargers or Broncos beating the Chiefs either.

Bet: Kansas City Chiefs (-200) 

Previous AFC Championship Prop Bets

In addition to the two prop bets above, NFL betting sites had a few more props that we examined in the preseason. Although there are no odds currently available for these props, that doesn’t mean that the sportsbooks won’t have odds for them in the future.

If the betting sites doe release odds for these prop bets, our minds have changed some since then. Instead of taking the Chiefs and Ravens for the title game, we like the Bills and Chiefs this time around. However, taking the AFC West as the division to win the Conference is still the smart choice.

To Reach 2024-25 AFC Championship Game 

I think it’s smart to automatically pencil the Chiefs into the AFC Championship game. They have played in six straight AFC Championship contests and have gone 4-2 over that span. The only question is which team will meet KC in the title game.  

Over the last four AFC Championship games, the Chiefs have played against the Bills, Bengals twice, and the Ravens last year. KC split with the Bengals in their two AFC Championship games. Those three teams are right behind the Chiefs as the odds-on favorites to make the game.  

Of the Ravens, Bengals and Bills, it’s Baltimore that has the best chance to meet the Chiefs in the AFC Championship game for the second straight year. The Ravens have made some solid moves to improve their team, while the Bills and Bengals have questions to answer before we can put our full confidence in them.  

Houston is one team to watch out for. They could easily beat out the Bengals, Ravens or Bills to meet the Chiefs in the AFC Championship game. However, we need to see more from them to ensure they’re going to be a real contender. It’s easy to hunt the favorites as they did last year. It’s a lot harder when you become the hunted.  

As we sit in the summer months before the season even begins, the safest approach to this prop bet is taking the Chiefs and the Ravens based on their Playoff experience and roster additions.  

Bet: Kansas City Chiefs (+105), Baltimore Ravens (+190) 

Which AFC Division Wins The 2024-25 AFC Championship? 

• AFC North (+140) 

• AFC West (+230) 

• AFC East (+300) 

• AFC South (+425) 

The AFC North is the toughest division in the conference. In fact, it should be the best division in the NFL with four teams that should all have winning records. Let’s not forget that three of the four teams made the Playoffs last year. With a returning Joe Burrow, we could easily see three teams from this division in the Playoffs this year.  

The AFC South is the Texans to lose. The AFC East will be a battle between the Bills, Dolphins and Jets. However, it’s the AFC West that has the defending Super Bowl champ and the AFC team to beat this year. Kansas City got better, while the rest of the teams in the West got worse. I expect the Chiefs to run away with the AFC West, take the top seed in the AFC, and represent the conference in the Super Bowl for the third straight year.  

Bet: AFC West (+230)