2024 Paris Olympics Men’s Soccer Odds and Predictions

While the UEFA European Championships and CONMEBOL Copa America are still in full swing, those aren’t the only major soccer tournaments set to go down this summer. Shortly after both competitions end, we’ll have the 2024 Summer Olympic Games to look forward to. The Opening Ceremony is set for July 26. The men’s soccer tournament will begin on July 24 with the final set for August 9.

While the Olympic men’s soccer competition won’t feature quite as many world-class players or recognizable names as some of these other events, it should still be an exciting tournament. Powerhouse nations like France, Spain, and Argentina are ranked among the favorites. Noticeably absent from the 2024 field is the reigning gold medal winners, Brazil. A 1-0 defeat to Argentina this past February knocked Brazil out of contention this summer.

So, we’ll have a new winner this time around. Will France capitalize on their status as early favorites? Or will a dark horse emerge and prove to be a profitable underdog betting option? Sports betting sites already have odds posted ahead of the competition, so let’s dive right in.

With France leading the odds as favorites, the competition is expected to be fierce. Will France capitalize on their home advantage and claim the gold, or will an underdog emerge to steal the spotlight? Below, I’ll break down the Olympic odds for each team participating in the tournament and assess their chances of clinching the top spot on the podium.

Olympic Men’s Soccer Odds

France (+230)

France is the early favorite to win the gold medal at the 2024 Paris Olympics. However, their odds of +230 mean they’re hardly overwhelming frontrunners.

France have one of the richest soccer histories of any nation, of course. They’ve also been successful on the Olympic stage. France took home the gold for the first and only time back in 1984. Les Bleus have made 13 appearances at the Games overall, but they’ve hardly been regular qualifiers in recent years. France have made just 2 Olympic appearances in 9 tries since winning the gold, and this year they qualified as the host nation.

While stars like Kylian Mbappe and Antoine Griezmann won’t be taking the pitch, France does still have a nice collection of young talent. The rules say all but 3 players on each roster must be 23 years old or younger. That helps to even the playing field a bit, but France have such a collection of riches on the talent front that their super-young roster is still superior to most. France will compete in Group A, which also features the United States, New Zealand, and Guinea.

Qualifying from the group should be no issue, as New Zealand and Guinea are 2 of the least-talented teams in the field. France will be led by Bayern Munich’s Michael Olise, who recently completed a transfer to Germany after a stellar season in England with Crystal Palace. The French captain – ex-Arsenal striker Alexandre Lacazette – is another recognizable name.

The French team benefits from the home advantage, and their roster is filled with talented young players who have already made a mark in top European clubs. France’s depth and quality make them a formidable contender, and their recent performances in international tournaments further bolster their chances.

Argentina (+275)

Argentina comes in with odds of +275, making them strong contenders for the gold. Argentina has a terrific history in Olympic soccer, having won gold in both 2004 and 2008. The current squad boasts a blend of experienced players and young talents, making them a team to watch out for. If Argentina can maintain their form and leverage their attacking prowess, they stand a good chance of winning.

Argentina have appeared in 11 Olympic games, though their only 2 medals were those aforementioned golds in Athens and Beijing. Argentina were eliminated in the group stage in both 2016 (Rio de Janeiro) and 2020 (Tokyo).

Needless to say, Lionel Messi won’t be making an appearance in Paris on the heels of the ongoing Copa America. One recognizable name who will play in the Olympics is Manchester City forward Julian Alvarez, who’s been a featured player in the team’s Copa America run. Veteran 36-year-old defender Nicolas Otamendi is another of Argentina’s over-23 exceptions. Former defender Javier Mascherano will coach the Olympic side.

The Olympic team is a lot less proven than the one tipped to win Copa America, but a nation with this much footballing talent need not be taken lightly. At +275, Argentina make for an alluring option to win gold. In Group B, Argentina will square off against Morocco, Iraq, and Ukraine.

Spain (+260)

Spain, with odds of +260, is another top contender for the gold. Spain’s youth system has consistently produced world-class talents, and their team for the Olympics is no exception. With a tactical and disciplined approach, Spain has the potential to go all the way. Their recent success in youth tournaments indicates that they are well-prepared for the Olympic challenge.

16-year-old sensation Lamine Yamal would seem to be a natural fit for the Olympic squad thanks to the age restrictions, but he wasn’t named in La Roja’s preliminary squad. Nor was Nico Williams. The only players featuring for Luis de la Fuente’s Euro squad who will also play in Paris are Fermin Lopez and Alex Baena. Spain also won’t feature a single player from Real Madrid.

Spain’s over-23 selections for this tournament were defender Eric Garcia, fullback Juan Miranda, and winger Sergio Gomez. Garcia – who has appeared 19 times for Spain – is the only member of that trio to have appeared for the senior team.

Spain drew a spot in Group C alongside the Dominican Republic, Egypt, and Mali. Spain have medaled 4 times at the Olympics over the years, with their lone goal coming on home soil in Barcelona back in 1992. La Roja had to settle for the silver medal in Tokyo a few years ago after losing to Brazil in the final.

Morocco (+1100)

Morocco, with odds of +1100, presents an intriguing option for bettors. Morocco has shown significant improvement in recent years, and their young squad is brimming with potential. If they can perform consistently and pull off a few upsets, they might be in contention for a medal.

You may remember Morocco as one of the dark horses to have made an impressive run at the 2022 World Cup in Qatar. While Morocco have appeared at 8 Olympic Games all-time, they’ve never advanced beyond the 2nd round at any competition. This will mark their first Olympic appearance since 2012 when they were eliminated after an 0-2-1 showing in the group stage.

Stalwart midfielder Sofyan Amrabat won’t be representing Morocco in Paris, but star defender Achraf Hakimi will. The 25-year-old PSG man was named to the Olympic side, and he’ll be one of the most recognizable faces set to star in the competition.

While Morocco generally seems to be a team headed in the right direction, I’m not a huge fan of their +1600 Olympic soccer odds to take home the gold.

USA (+1600)

The USA men’s soccer team is listed at +1600, suggesting a challenging yet possible path to gold. A $100 bet on the USA would return $1,600 if they win. The USA has been investing heavily in their youth development programs, and this Olympic squad is a testament to that. While they might not be the favorites, their resilience and growing talent pool could see them make a deep run in the tournament.

The Americans are fresh off of an incredibly disappointing Copa America effort that saw them surprisingly eliminated in the group stage. While the senior team is generally young, this Olympic squad is even younger. This group will be coached by Marko Mitrovic, and absent will be star players like Christian Pulisic, Gio Reyna, and Weston McKennie. The USA has appeared at 4 Olympic Games since 1992, though they’re still in search of their first medal. Their closest finish was in 2000, when they took 4th place in Sydney.

USMNT fans will recognize names like Miles Robinson, Walker Zimmerman, and Gianluca Busio. All 3 players will play a part this summer, while Djordje Mihailovic joins Robinson and Zimmerman as the over-23 selections. While most of the side plays professionally in MLS, there are several more players plying their craft in Europe’s top leagues.

The United States’ +1600 gold medal odds indicate they have a chance to make an impressive run this summer. US soccer has seemingly been on the rise over the past decade, and this will be a great opportunity to make a statement on the heels of that dismal Copa America campaign.

Paraguay (+2000)

Paraguay, with odds of +2000, is considered an outsider for the gold medal. Paraguay’s strength lies in their defensive solidity and tactical discipline. They might not have the star power of other teams, but their cohesive unit could spring a surprise or two.

Panama qualified for the Games after holding off Venezuela in qualifying. Paraguay actually topped Argentina and Brazil in the Pre-Olympic Football Tournament, which was an impressive result for an otherwise middling soccer nation. This will be Paraguay’s first Olympic appearance since 1992 when they were ousted in the quarterfinals.

Paraguay will compete in Group D with Japan, Israel, and Mali.

Japan (+2500)

Japan’s odds are set at +2500, offering a potentially lucrative return for bettors. A $100 bet on Japan would yield a $2,500 profit. Japan has a reputation for their technical skills and fast-paced style of play. With the experience of hosting the previous Olympics in Tokyo, they will be looking to improve on their performance and challenge for a medal.

Japan is one of the more underrated soccer teams in the world, and we saw them make a solid run at the 2022 FIFA World Cup. Interestingly enough, Japan is one of the few teams in the competition that won’t be sending anybody over the age of 23. Japan declined to name any senior players despite rumors that Liverpool midfielder Wataru Endo was among the veterans garnering consideration. This is the first time since 2008 that Japan won’t send any senior players to the Games.

Japan will enter the Olympics in impressive form after winning the U-23 Asian Cup, though that tournament doesn’t necessarily feature the strongest competition. Japan toppled Uzbekistan – another Olympic qualifier – in the final of that event.

This team has never medaled at an Olympics, but they’ve come close. Japan lost a bronze playoff in both 2012 (vs. South Korea) and 2020 (vs. Mexico). They likely benefited from home-field advantage in Tokyo a few years ago, but this is a steadily-improving side that makes for an interesting option at +2500. They’re in a very winnable Group D next to Paraguay, Israel, and Mali.

Egypt (+2000)

Egypt, with odds of +2000, offers an interesting prospect for bettors. Egypt has a history of producing talented players, and their Olympic squad is no different. Their disciplined approach and attacking flair make them a dark horse in the tournament.

Egypt have long been one of the better teams out of the African federation, though their Olympic squad is awfully inexperienced. The best player in Egyptian history – Mohamed Salah – won’t be playing in Paris this summer. This will be the 13th Olympic outing for Egypt. They advanced as far as the quarterfinals in their 2 most recent showings (Tokyo 2020 and London 2012), but they’re still in search of their first finish on the medal stand.

Advancing beyond a group that also features Argentina and Ukraine won’t be easy, however.

Ukraine (+3000)

Ukraine’s odds of +3000 suggest a more uncertain path to gold. One of 2 war-torn nations in the event, Ukraine has a mix of experienced players and promising youngsters who have shown their capabilities in recent international competitions. They will need to perform exceptionally well to overcome the favorites.

Ukraine were eliminated in the group stage at the Euros earlier this month, and this will be the country’s first-ever Olympic appearance. Ukraine lost a friendly to Japan, 2-0, in a friendly back in March. They’ll open Olympic play with a group-stage matchup against Iraq before games against Morocco and Argentina thereafter.

LASK midfielder Maksym Talovyerov is one of the senior players on the squad. Qualifying for the Olympics out of Europe is no small feat, of course, with the incredibly talented federation sending just 4 total teams to the Games. The +3000 odds are a bit interesting, but they’ll face no shortage of hurdles in their first ever attempt at Olympic glory.

Mali (+4000)

Mali, with odds of +4000, offers a high-risk, high-reward betting option. Mali has shown promise in youth tournaments, and their Olympic squad will look to continue that trend. While they are long shots, their potential to surprise should not be underestimated.

Mali will appear in the Olympics for the first time in over 2 decades after winning a spot at the U-23 Africa Cup of Nations. The side features quite a few players playing for major European teams, including Schalke 04 defender Ibrahima Cissé. One of the more talented players in the Olympic squad is 22-year-old midfielder Boubacar Traoré, who plays professionally for Wolverhampton Wanderers in the Premier League.

This will be Mali’s 2nd trip to the Olympics and first since 2004. They finished 1-2-1 in group play and failed to advance that year.

Uzbekistan (+6500)

Uzbekistan, with odds of +6500, is another long-shot bet. Uzbekistan has been improving steadily in recent years, and their young team could pull off a few surprises. However, they will need to be at their absolute best to compete with the stronger teams. In this kind of tournament, they’ll be hard-pressed to get out of Group C with Egypt, Spain, and the Dominican Republic.

This will be Uzbekistan’s first Olympic soccer appearance. While the tournament as a whole is fairly wide open, I’ll have a hard time backing any team with odds as long as theirs.

New Zealand (+10000)

New Zealand, with odds of +10000, is considered an extreme long shot for the gold medal. New Zealand’s team is known for their physicality and teamwork, but they lack the star power of other nations. They will need to rely on their collective effort to make an impact.

Each of New Zealand’s 3 previous Olympic appearances have come since 2008. They failed to advance from group play in either of their first 2 attempts before falling in the quarterfinals at Tokyo 2020.

Guinea (+5000)

Guinea face the longest Olympic soccer odds of any African side at +5000 entering the tournament. Guinea has a history of producing talented players, and their Olympic squad will be looking to make a mark.

Guinea’s lone previous appearance in the Olympic soccer competition came way back in 1968, so it’s been quite a while since we’ve seen them on the big stage. This team will be captained by a recognizable face in Naby Keita, the oft-injured midfielder who previously set a transfer record when he moved to Liverpool back in 2018.

Israel (+6500)

Israel, with odds of +6500, is another underdog in the tournament. Israel’s team has been improving, and they have the potential to cause upsets. However, they will need to perform at their peak to compete with the top teams. Israel are grouped with Japan, Mali, and Paraguay in Group D.

Israel’s 2 previous Olympic outings occurred in 1968 and 1976. They advanced to the quarterfinals in both competitions. The vast majority of Israel’s players play professionally in the Israeli Premier League, which is hardly one of Europe’s top leagues.

Iraq (+12000)

Iraq face incredibly long +1200 odds to win gold this summer in Paris. Iraq has shown promise in youth tournaments, but they face a tough challenge in the Olympics.

While Iraq did impressively finish 4th back in the 2004 Olympics, they struggled to a 12th-place finish in Rio 8 years ago.

Dominican Republic (+15000)

The Dominican Republic, with odds of +15000, is the ultimate underdog in the tournament. While it’s tempting to plop $100 down on the Dominicans to win gold considering the gargantuan $15,000 payout, it’s likely just a waste of a Benjamin.

The Dominican Republic is relatively new to the international soccer scene, and their participation in the Olympics is an achievement in itself. This will be their first-ever appearance at the Games. Leeds United’s Junior Firpo is the most famous player in the side, but he and the rest of the side will have their work cut out for them.

Who Will Win the Gold Medal?

France are an understandable favorite given their depth, talent, and home advantage. However, the unpredictable nature of the tournament means that underdogs like Japan and the USA could spring surprises.

France may look like the safest bet, but nothing is certain in this tournament. Teams like Argentina and Spain offer more attractive odds for bettors looking for a higher payout. Ultimately, betting on the Olympics requires balancing the odds with the potential for an upset. The best approach is to consider both the favorites and the dark horses to find the right balance of risk and reward.

Considering both the odds and team potential, Argentina at +275 offers a good balance of risk and reward if you want to bet on the Olympics. While France remains the favorite, Argentina’s blend of experience and young talent makes them a strong contender for the gold medal. Argentina have every major tournament since the 2020 Copa America, and I don’t think they’ll stop this summer.

Olympics Bet: Argentina (+275)