2024 NASCAR The Great American Getaway 400 Odds and Predictions

On Sunday, July 14, NASCAR’s Cup Series returns to Pocono Raceway for The Great American Getaway 400 race. This weekend’s event marks the 21^st race of the 2024 Cup Series Season. Including this event, there are six races left before the Cup Series Playoffs begin and the 16 qualified drivers compete for the Cup Series Championship.

Denny Hamlin enters this weekend’s race as the sizable odds-on favorite, which comes as no surprise considering he has the most Pocono wins among active drivers. Rounding out the Top 5 favorites for Sunday’s event include Kyle Larson, Martin Truex Jr., Christopher Bell and Tyler Reddick. 

Last week, the Cup Series was in Chicago for the Grant Park 165. Rain hindered the Chicago Street Course race and forced a time-limit stoppage due to darkness. Unfortunately for the majority of bettors, Alex Bowman ended up being the benefactor of the stoppage. The race had close to 20 laps left at the time of stoppage. 

I aim to get back into the winner’s circle with this week’s NASCAR picks. So, let’s take a look at the latest NASCAR The Great American Getaway 400 odds and make our Cup Series predictions for this weekend’s Pocono Raceway event. 

The Great American Getaway 400 Race Profile

The Pocono Raceway has been home to annual Cup Series races since 1971. In fact, from 1982 until 2022, Pocono held two Cup Series races each year. Commonly referred to as “the Tricky Triangle,” this asphalt track has a lap distance of 2.5 miles and three turns with banking from 6 degrees to 14 degrees. 

Sunday’s The Great American Getaway 400 race breaks down as follows:

• Total Miles: 400 miles
• Total Laps: 160 laps
• Stage 1: 30 laps
• Stage 2: 65 laps
• Final Stage: 65 laps

The Great American Getaway 400 is set to begin at 2:30pm ET and will air live on USA.

Previous The Great American Getaway 400 Winners

Denny Hamlin is the reigning Pocono Raceway winner. He also holds the record for the most wins at this track with seven. Jeff Gordon is second with six victories. The following is a list of recent Pocono winners:

• 2023: Denny Hamlin
• 2022: Chase Elliott
• 2021: Kyle Busch, Alex Bowman
• 2020: Denny Hamlin, Kevin Harvick
• 2019: Denny Hamlin, Kyle Busch
• 2018: Kyle Busch, Martin Truex Jr.

NASCAR The Great American Getaway 400 Odds

The following NASCAR Cup Series The Great American Getaway 400 odds are courtesy of the top sports betting sites: 

NASCAR The Great American Getaway 400 Favorites

The following drivers are considered by oddsmakers to be the odds-on favorites to win The Great American Getaway 400:

Denny Hamlin (+350)

• Standings: 4^th  
• Win: 3
• Top 5: 7
• Top 10: 8

Denny Hamlin is the betting favorite this weekend due to his career success at Pocono. In 34 appearances at this track, Hamlin has seven wins, 15 Top 5s, and 22 Top 10s. He also has an 11.5 average finish, which is 5^th best among full-time Cup Series drivers. He not only has the most wins, but he also has the most Top 5s, Top 10s, and poles (tied with Kyle Busch) among active drivers. 

Over his last nine Pocono races, Hamlin has three wins, five Top 5s, and seven Top 10s. Two years ago, he was disqualified along with Kyle Busch. Hamlin has won two of the last five Cup Series events at Pocono Raceway. He also has four Top 2 finishes in the last seven races at this track. 

For Hamlin, The Great American Getaway 400 couldn’t come fast enough. The #11 car needs a track where he can rebound from some poor performances on the season. Hamlin is going through a rough patch to say the least. 

Over the last five races on the season, Hamlin has four finishes of 24^th or worse. His best result over that stretch was 12^th at Nashville. Because of this span of poor finishes, Hamlin has fallen from 1^st to 4^th in the driver standings. 

With that said, Hamlin is the driver to beat this weekend. Sure, there are other Cup Series drivers that have been racing better than the #11 car over the last six weeks on the year. However, Hamlin has proven over his career that Pocono Raceway is his home away from home. 

Look for Hamlin to be a contender for the checkered flag and the best car in The Great American Getaway 400 race on Sunday. 

Kyle Larson (+500)

• Standings: 1st 
• Win: 3
• Top 5: 8
• Top 10: 10

Typically, we’re confident in strong finishes for Kyle Larson on a weekly basis. Only a handful of tracks give us come concern. Fortunately, Pocono isn’t one of them. Although he has never won at Pocono Raceway, Larson does have five Top 5s, nine Top 10s and an 11.6 average finish in 16 career starts. 

Last year, the #5 car finished 20^th, which snapped a four-race streak of finishing 9^th or better. He’s also led laps in four of the last six Pocono races. 

Last week, Larson crashed out of the Chicago race on lap 33 and finished 39^th. It was his 3^rd DNF on the season, but he still sits first overall in the driver standings. With that said, Larson does have two finishes of 34^th or worse in the last four races on the year. 

With only six events left until the Playoffs, the #5 car is going to need to regain some momentum heading into the postseason. I like for Larson to be a Top 10 car on Sunday. However, a Top 5 finish might be his ceiling. 

Christopher Bell (+600)

• Standings: 8^th 
• Win: 3
• Top 5: 6
• Top 10: 11

Like with Larson, Christopher Bell needs to get back to his previous hot streak where he finished 9^th or better for five straight races including two victories. Since winning at New Hampshire three weeks ago, Bell has crashed out of the last two races. 

Those crashes resulted in a 36^th and 37^th finishes, while bumping his DNFs to a total of five. Bell is tied for the series lead in DNFs and has the most among Playoff eligible drivers. 

For Bell, he’s never won at Pocono Raceway in the Cup Series. In six appearances, Bell has two Top 5s, three Top 10s and a 17.0 average finish. Bell does have 1 DNF at this track, but has pulled off two Top 6 finishes over the last two races here. 

Bell’s success at this raceway is a mixed-bag. He’s only led 17 laps in six starts at Pocono, but does have a 50% Top 10 finishing rate. However, with the way things have been going for the #20 car on the season, I think a Top 10 finish is his ceiling. I would hold off with betting on Bell to finish in the Top 5 or winning this event. 

Tyler Reddick (+700)

• Standings: 3^rd  
• Win: 1
• Top 5: 8
• Top 10: 13

Like Bell, Tyler Reddick also has just six career Cup Series starts at Pocono Raceway. He also has two Top 5s and three Top 10s at Pocono. However, Reddick has a better average finish of 14.8 compared to Bell’s 17.0. He also has three straight Top 9 finishes at Pocono including coming in as the runner-up in the last two events at this track. Over his last four Pocono races, Reddick has a 6.0 average finish. 

On the season, Reddick has been one of the most consistent drivers in the field. He’s moved up to third in the standings because of this consistency, which includes a series leading 13 Top 10 finishes and the second-best average finish at 12.0. Only Elliott’s 10.6 average finish is better. 

Over the last seven races on the season, the #45 car has six Top 8 finishes including three in a row. He finished second last weekend in Chicago and third at Nashville’s Ally 400 race two weeks ago. 

Compared to Bell and Larson, I like Reddick a lot more at Pocono this weekend. I think he can be one of the very few drivers to challenge Hamlin on Sunday. Look for Reddick to be a Top 5 car and a potential race winner. 

Martin Truex Jr. (+750)

• Standings: 5^th  
• Win: 0
• Top 5: 4
• Top 10: 8

Martin Truex Jr. has had a tale of two halves this season. The first half of the 2024 Cup Series season saw the #19 car positioned at the top of the standings. Unfortunately, the second half of the season has seen Truex fall down to 5^th. And, the soon-to-be retiree has yet to win a race on the year. 

Truex has only one Top 10 finish in the last eight races and that was a 9^th place result at New Hampshire three weeks ago. Last weekend, he finished 33^rd on the road course. His last Top 5 result was in Kansas over two months ago. 

Over the last 10 years, Truex has only had one winless season and that came in 2022. That year, he finished 17^th and didn’t even make the Playoffs. This year, Truex is hanging in there as he firmly sits above the cutoff line. But he’s in 13^th at +125 points above the cutoff line. So, there isn’t much wiggle room for the #19 car. There is a scenario where Truex could miss the postseason, but we’re hoping that’s not the case. 

Truex has 34 Pocono Raceway starts with two wins, seven Top 5s, 15 Top 10s and a 14.1 average finish. He was third at this track last year, but hasn’t won at Pocono since the spring of 2018. He does have five Top 10s in the last seven Pocono races. 

I like for Truex to continue his Top 10 run at Pocono with a Top 5 finish as his ceiling. He needs to put together some strong results to avoid missing the Playoffs. This weekend is the perfect launching pad for a strong finish to the summer. 

NASCAR The Great American Getaway 400 Betting Value

The following drivers are my picks for the best betting value in The Great American Getaway 400 based on their current season’s stats and their previous success at Pocono Raceway:

Chase Elliott (+1400)

• Standings: 2^nd  
• Win: 1
• Top 5: 7
• Top 10: 9

Chase Elliott sits second in the driver standings and fifth in the Playoff standings. He’s a lock for the postseason and for a Top 10 finish on Sunday. In fact, I really like the #9 car to run strong at Pocono this weekend. 

In 14 career starts at Pocono Raceway, Elliott has one win, four Top 5s, nine Top 10s, and a 13.8 average finish which is 8^th best among active drivers. He has two Top 10 results at this track over the last two races including a checkered flag at Pocono in 2022. 

Although his last seven appearances have been a roller coaster, Elliott has the potential to challenge both Reddick and Hamlin for the win this weekend. 

Like Larson and Bell, Elliott needs to bounce back from three weeks of 18^th or worse finishes on the season. He started on the pole in New Hampshire, but finished 18^th. He followed that up with an 18^th in Nashville and then a 21^st in Chicago, which was surprising considering that Elliott is the best road course driver in the field today. I picked him to win last weekend and he let me down. 

With that said, look for the #9 car to have a strong showing on Sunday and be one of the Top 5 drivers with a shot at the checkered flag. 

Brad Keselowski (+1600)

• Standings: 10^th 
• Win: 1
• Top 5: 7
• Top 10: 9

Brad Keselowski is 10^th in the driver standings and 8^th in the Playoff standings due to his victory at Darlington eight races ago. However, he’s also in the same boat as drivers like Elliott, Larson and Bell who have struggled as of late and need to turn things around. 

Keselowski has finished 18^th or worse over the last three weeks and has just one Top 10 result in the last five races on the season. This is surprising considering the #6 car is qualifying well with four straight Top 10 starting spots. 

Fortunately for Keselowski, Pocono Raceway is a track where he’s had success at in his lengthy career. In 26 starts, Keselowski has one win, 11 Top 5s, 15 Top 10s and a 10.9 average finish which is fourth best among the field. He only has 1 DNF at this track, which is pretty remarkable considering how many starts he has at Pocono. 

Keselowski has five Top 10 finishes over his last eight appearances at Pocono. I like for the #6 car to be a Top 10 driver most of the day and possibly crack the Top 5. If he gets a little luck this weekend, we could see Keselowski picking up his second career Pocono victory.

Kyle Busch (+1800)

• Standings: 17^th  
• Win: 0
• Top 5: 2
• Top 10: 6

It’s now or never for Kyle Busch if he wants to make the Playoffs. Not only is his streak of at least one win per season in danger of being snapped after 19 consecutive years, but he’s also in danger of missing the Playoffs for the first time since NASCAR changed their Cup Series postseason format. 

Currently, Busch sits 17^th in the driver standings and 19^th in the Playoff standings. He’s 98 points below the Playoff cutline and the 16^th place driver Chris Buescher. 

Last weekend, Busch finished 9^th in Chicago, which snapped a terrible streak of four DNFs in his previous five races including three in a row prior to Chi-Town. It was his first Top 10 finish in over two months. 

I like for Busch to continue his momentum from last weekend by scoring another Top 10 result as he has been the second-best driver at Pocono among the field. 

In 36 starts at this raceway, Busch has four wins, 11 Top 5s, 18 Top 10s and a 15.9 average finish. He last won at Pocono in 2021, but has three finishes of 21^st or worse in his last five appearances. In the spring 2021 race, Busch finished 2^nd. So, if he has a good car this weekend, and gets a little luck, we might just see the Kyle Busch of old as he contends with his former teammate Denny Hamlin for the checkered flag. 

The Top The Great American Getaway 400 Longshot

Let me start by saying that I don’t like any longshots beyond Kyle Busch at +1800 odds. With that said, some of you love the large odds and taking fliers. So, this week’s longshot choice is Erik Jones (+7500). Currently, he sits 28^th in the Driver standings and will almost certainly miss the Playoffs unless he picks up a win. 

With that said, Jones has the seventh best average finish at Pocono (13.5) among active drivers. He also has eight Top 10s and five Top 5s in 12 career starts at this track. Jones has two 9^th place finishes over the last two races here, and I like for that trend to continue this weekend. Jones’ Top 10 finish odds are +350, which could be worth a flier as well. 

The Best Top 5 Bet for The Great American Getaway 400

Although I would prefer better odds for a Top 5 finish than Denny Hamlin at -170, there really isn’t another driver that I feel as confident in to finish in the Top 5 and win the race. 

Hamlin’s success at this track is well-documented above. He has five Top 5 finishes and three wins over the last seven Pocono races. For his career, he has a 44.1% Top 5 finishing rate. 

Bet: Denny Hamlin (-170)

The Best Top 10 Bet for The Great American Getaway 400

The combination of his career success, desperation and his Top 10 odds (+100), has me picking Kyle Busch as my best Top 10 bet of the weekend. Sure, there are other drivers that have better chances of finishing in the Top 10, but none of their odds have this kind of value. 

Furthermore, Busch has a 50% Top 10 finishing rate, but hasn’t had a Top 10 finish since 2021. That year, he was second in the spring race and won the fall Pocono race. Over the last 13 appearances at this raceway, Busch has 10 Top 10 finishes. 

For a driver that desperately needs strong results over the next six weeks to make the Playoffs, this is as good of a chance as we’re going to get when it comes to backing Busch as a Top 10 driver. 

Bet: Kyle Busch (+100)

The Great American Getaway 400 Driver H2H Matchups

For these NASCAR bets, you must pick which driver will have the better The Great American Getaway 400 result in each head-to-head matchup:

Joey Logano (-125) vs. Alex Bowman (-105)

This is a battle of the two most recent Cup Series race winners. As mentioned at the beginning of this NASCAR betting preview, Bowman won the shortened Chicago road race last weekend. Logano won at Nashville two weeks ago.

The two are close in the driver standings as Bowman moved up to 11^th with his win last weekend and Logano is 14^th. They’re even closer in the Playoff standings with Bowman sitting 9^th and Logano 10^th.

At Pocono, Logano has 28 starts with one win, four Top 5s, 10 Top 10s, a 17.9 average finish and 2 DNFs. Bowman has one win, two Top 5s, four Top 10s, and an 18.4 average finish in 14 career starts at this track. 

On paper, Logano appears to be the better driver at Pocono Raceway. However, Bowman’s success has come over the last few years, while Logano’s recent stretch of Pocono races have been subpar for the two-time Cup Series Champion.

In the last five Pocono races, Bowman has a 10.4 average finish with three Top 10s and a win in 2021. Logano has two Top 10s, a 19.2 average finish and a DNF last year in this race. 

I’m taking the underdog Bowman in this matchup.

Bet: Alex Bowman (-105)

NASCAR The Great American Getaway 400 Predictions: Who Takes The Checkered Flag?

The Tricky Triangle is a tricky track to pick the winner, especially considering how inconsistent some of the favorites have been over the last month. 

With that said, I like Hamlin, Elliott, Reddick, Byron, and Larson, Keselowski or Truex to finish in the Top 5. Speaking of Byron, he leads the field with a 9.9 average finish. In 10 starts, his worst result was 18^th back in 2018. He started on the pole last year, led 160 laps, but finished 14^th. Don’t sleep on the #24 car this weekend, as he’s often overshadowed by his Hendrick Motorsports teammates Larson and Elliott. 

A fun stat for this weekend is that nine former Pocono winners are active in Sunday’s race. Of the 40 all-time Cup Series Pocono winners, only 24 have won multiple times at this raceway. Just three of those 24 are racing this weekend: Hamlin, Truex, and Kyle Busch. 

Of those three, I like Hamlin’s chances the best. Not only has he run better than Truex and Busch all year long, but he’s arguably the best Cup Series driver at Pocono Raceway since they started racing at this track over 50 years ago.

So, the question comes down to whether or not we think anyone else can beat Hamlin. The answer is yes. I like Reddick’s chances at upstaging Hamlin this weekend. Reddick has been the most consistent driver in the Cup Series this season and finished runner-up in this race over the last two years. If anyone can steal this race from Hamlin, it’s going to be Reddick. Additionally, I just can’t pick the odds-on favorite for the third time in the last five races.

My suggestion is, if you take Hamlin or Reddick to win, hedge your bet in the NASCAR prop bets below. 

Bet: Tyler Reddick (+700)

NASCAR The Great American Getaway 400 Prop Bets

The following NASCAR The Great American Getaway 400 prop bets are courtesy of Bet365:

Either To Win: Hamlin or Byron (+220)

I picked both Hamlin and Byron to finish in the Top 5 this weekend. Hamlin is clearly the driver to beat. And, though I picked Reddick to steal this race from Hamlin on Sunday, I still think that the latter has a better chance of winning. 

With that said, I’m hedging my Reddick race-winner bet by taking this prop to include Hamlin and Byron. The #11 car will be the driver to beat on Sunday, but the #24 car has the best average finish in the field. Additionally, Byron was on the pole last year and has never finished worse than 18^th at Pocono. 

Bet: Hamlin or Byron (+220)

Winning Manufacturer

• Toyota (-125)
• Chevrolet (+180)
• Ford (+475)

Ford has the longest odds to win Sunday’s race. However, they do have the second most all-time Pocono wins for manufacturers with 24. The last Ford driver to win this race was Kevin Harvick in June 2020. Currently, he’s retired from racing. In fact, it’s the only Ford win in the last 11 Pocono races. 

Chevrolet is the leader in Pocono wins with 34. The Hendrick Motorsports team of Elliott, Larson, Byron and Bowman are the cream of the crop for Chevy this weekend as two or more of these drivers will finish in the Top 5. I wouldn’t be surprised if all four finish in the Top 10; definitely the Top 15. 

With that said, Toyota is the betting favorite in this prop bet for a reason. They’ve won 12 times at Pocono, including eight of the last 11 races at this track. Hamlin and Reddick are my two favorites for this weekend and they both drive Toyota cars. 

Truex and Bell are also Toyota drivers and both could have solid Top 10 runs as well. Take Toyota to continue their dominant run at Pocono Raceway.

Bet: Toyota (-125)

Winning Car Number

• Over 14.5 (-110)
• Under 14.5 (-120)

I’ve spent the last few weeks taking the Under and losing badly. This weekend, I’m changing up my tactics. But before I explain why, let’s take a look at the top cars for the Over and the Under at Pocono Raceway:

The top Pocono contenders for Under 14.5 are: Larson (5), Elliott (9), Hamlin (11), 

The top Pocono contenders for Over 14.5 are: Truex (19), Bell (20), Byron (24), Reddick (45)

For The Great American Getaway 400, I’m going with the Over 14.5 despite recognizing that Hamlin is the car to beat. I picked Reddick to win the race, but I also really like Byron as a Top 5 driver as well. Not to mention, Truex and Bell are both Top 5 odds-on favorites to win this weekend. 

Bet: Over 14.5 (-110)

The Great American Getaway 400 Group Winner

• Joey Logano (+240)
• Bubba Wallace (+240)
• Chris Buescher (+260)
• Alex Bowman (+320)

I broke down Bowman and Logano’s chances this weekend in the head-to-head driver prop bet above. Chris Buescher (20.6) and Bubba Wallace (20.0) both have average finish worse than Logano (17.9) and Bowman (18.4). 

Of this group, Wallace is the only one without a win at Pocono. However, he does have three straight Top 11 finishes. Buescher hasn’t cracked the Top 10 in the last six races. In fact, his best finish was 18^th which came last year. 

Bowman won this race in 2021, and has a 10.4 average finish over the last five Pocono events. Logano scored a DNF last year and has a 19.5 average finish over that same span. Only Wallace comes close to Bowman over that span, with an 11.6 average finish.

Considering Bowman has the best average finish and a win over the last few years at this track, I like for the #48 car to score the best finish of this group.

Bet: Alex Bowman (+320)

Team of Race Winner 

• Joe Gibbs Racing (+100)
• Hendrick Motorsports (+200)
• 23XI Racing (+600)
• Team Penske (+1000)
• RFK Racing (+1100)
• Richard Childress Racing (+2000)
• Trackhouse Racing (+2000)
• Stewart-Haas Racing (+3300)

Hendrick Motorsports has the most all-time wins at this track with 19. Their last victory came in 2022, when Chase Elliott won. Joe Gibbs Racing is a close second with 17 wins including three in the last four years and four in the last five years. Hamlin won last year’s race for JGR. 23XI Racing has yet to win at Pocono, but they have a great chance this weekend with Reddick.

Since I picked Reddick to win, I’m going to take this opportunity to hedge my bets. For this NASCAR prop bet, I’m taking Hendrick Motorsports. Although I have repeatedly stated that Hamlin is the car to beat, I really like Hendrick’s drivers this weekend. Elliott, Larson, Bowman and Byron are all capable of winning. In fact, three of the four have already won at Pocono in their Cup Series careers.  

Bet: Hendrick Motorsports (+200)