2024 Paris Olympics Men’s Surfing Odds and Predictions

Surfing is a fledgling sport when looking at its impact in the Summer Olympics. In fact, the 2024 Paris Olympics will mark just the second time it’s a featured sport at this level.

Despite it only being around for one installment, Paris will already name a new gold medal winner, with Tokyo’s champion – Italo Ferreira – failing to qualify for this summer’s games.

That could make for a wide open field, which is music to the ears of many sports betting handicappers. If you need a little help deciding which way to lean, join me as I break down the latest 2024 Paris Olympics men’s surfing odds and work my way to a winner prediction.

Odds to Win Gold in Men’s Surfing at the Paris Olympics

As noted, the only man to win gold in men’s surfing at the Olympics won’t be competing in 2024. 

That has the top sports betting sites a bit unsure how to price this event, and it also naturally gives bettors a considerable amount of value.

Just check out the most recent men’s Olympic surfing odds to assess the competition.

Gabriel Medina takes over for Italo Ferreira, who won the first ever Olympics men’s surfing gold medal in Tokyo four years ago. 

Inconsistency and his overall rankings kept a repeat bid from happening, but fellow Brazilian Medina will look to carry on for him and their country.

Medina is one of three Brazil representatives in the men’s Olympic surfing competition, but he has the best odds by a wide margin.

Right behind him, though, is American John John Florence at +300, while five surfers in all have odds of +800 or better. 

Brazil looks to lead the way as the main threat, but this competition does seem to be anyone’s for the taking – especially with the most recent winner not here to defend their gold medal.

Why is Gabriel Medina the 2024 Men’s Surfing Favorite?

Medina has a lot going for him, and the fact that he made the cut over the last guy to win gold in this event tells you a lot.

There is a lot to like when thinking about betting on Medina to win the men’s surfing gold medal with his 2024 ISA Surfing Games title at the forefront.

This isn’t the first time the 30-year-old has impressed, as he’s a three-time world champion, including wins at the Tahiti stages and the WSL Championship Tour. He’s also had his eye on becoming an Olympic gold medalist, and he remains in his physical prime.

It also doesn’t hurt that he came very close to winning a medal four years ago. He was narrowly edged out by Kanoa Igarashi for a shot at the gold medal, and then missed out on the bronze medal by .20 points.

His vast experience, numerous big wins, and recent 2024 title combine to make him a compelling bet to win at the 2024 Paris Olympics.

To be frank, his +200 odds are plenty alluring for a betting favorite. The only real detractors are that there are several viable threats and he hasn’t won at this level before.

Top 2024 Men’s Surfing Contenders for Paris

Medina looks like a viable bet to win at the 2024 Summer Games, but he’s far from a lock. 

There are actually quite a few alternatives to consider before placing your 2024 Paris Olympics bets. Here are the three most appealing men’s Olympic surfing contenders right now.

John John Florence +300

Team USA is projected to win the most gold medals, so if you’re interested in betting on the Over, perhaps you’ll feel inclined to back someone like John John Florence.

He’s exactly the type of Olympic athlete that could sway the total gold medals bet, as he enters the men’s surfing competition with the second best odds.

The 31-year old could be looking at his last crack at a gold medal already, although he did get his feet wet four years ago in Tokyo.

Florence couldn’t get it done then, but he has loads of experience, having collected nine WSL Championship Tour wins, as well as two World Championships.

His most recent accomplishment arrived following Tokyo, when he won his fifth Triple Crown of Surfing title.

Florence’s career has been a long one – he was the youngest competitor in the Vans Triple Crown of Surfing at just 13 – and it’d make for a strong narrative to wrap it up with Olympic gold.

Jack Robinson +600

Instead of some of these long-in-the-tooth surfing champions, bettors might want to go a bit younger with someone like Jack Robinson.

A younger surfer could offer superior athleticism, endurance, and stamina, while also possessing potential that to this point has been untapped.

It’d be easy to fall in love with that narrative when considering Robinson, as the 26-year old has seven WSL Championship Tour wins under his belt and has twice won Surfer of the Year.

Robinson earned his Olympic qualification thanks to the 2023 World Surf League, where he got the nod after making the top-22 in the Tour’s 2022 rankings.

There is no Olympics history to work off with Robinson, but the talent is there for him to make a run at the gold.

Kauli Vaast +700

There are more men’s Olympic surfing contenders out there, but I’ll stop my breakdown at Vaast.

His +700 odds are quite good for a borderline favorite, especially when you realize the guys ahead of him aren’t exactly sure things.

You can’t say that about Vaast, either, but the 22-year-old has the whole world ahead of him and could end up making a huge splash at the 2024 Paris Games.

He obviously has to prove himself in a more experienced and uber competitive field, but Vaast has dominated the youngsters to the tune of three WSL European Junior titles.

Already ranked #6 in the World Surf League, Vaast has six heat wins and took first place at the Rip Curl Pro Search Taghazout Bay. 

The youngster is a tough sell due to a clear lack of experience, but when looking at athleticism and potential on the water, few can rival what Vaast has to offer.

Best 2024 Paris Olympics Men’s Surfing Betting Value 

There is not a better men’s surfing Olympics betting value than Kanoa Igarashi. He comes in at +3300 odds, which is fairly obscene considering that he won the silver medal in Tokyo.

Okay, so he wasn’t actually that close, getting edged out by Italo Ferreira 15.14 to 6.60 in the final, but getting to the gold medal match isn’t nothing.

En route to his silver medal, Igarashi edged out this year’s gold medal favorite, and got past two other USA surfers in Kolohe Andino and John John Florence.

The 26-year old Igarashi has numerous accolades to his name. In addition to securing that silver medal at the Tokyo Games, the Japan representative has two US Open of Surfing titles, one WSL Championship Tour win, and won the 2022 ISA World Surfing Games in 2022.

Despite his relatively young age, Igarashi actually has loads of experience, and just as important as that, he’s specifically edged out his top competition going into the 2024 Paris Games.

He’s not just an amazing betting value, but I’d argue he should have far greater odds to work his way back to the final.

2024 Men’s Surfing Gold Medal Winner Prediction

Betting on the 2024 Paris Olympics is a lot harder than it seems, particularly when you start digging into cluttered events like men’s surfing.

You have a clear favorite in Gabriel Medina, but then you have a slew of viable contenders with appealing prices.

I think you can talk yourself into a number of different bets this year, but I’d start and end every conversation with Medina.

Medina came painfully close to the Olympic gold he’s been dreaming of. He almost got an epic face-off with Brazil teammate Italo Ferreira, and then even in the bronze medal match, he missed out by the smallest of margins.

I expect him to return to the Olympics as focused as ever. There’s still risk in a betting market like this, but at +200 betting odds, he’s a gamble worth taking.

Bet: Gabriel Medina +200