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Expert Betting Guide for the NHL
In this NHL betting guide, we’ll provide you a comprehensive look at the types of wagers you can place on ice hockey, how to find value, and some key tips for intermediate bettors. Plus, we’ll give you a look at some of the best NHL bets today from some of our most skilled handicappers.
If you’ve ever wanted to bet on the NHL, now is the time! Use this guide to learn the basics and take your skills to the next level.
Best NHL Bets Today
Understanding NHL Betting
The nature of hockey means that NHL betting offers a unique and exciting challenge for sports bettors. Unlike some other sports, hockey games can be influenced by a large number of factors. This includes everything from the speed and skill of players to the strategies used by the coaches. Understanding these nuances is critical in order to understand how sportsbooks create their odds and how to make the most informed bets possible.
NHL betting requires a keen awareness of advanced statistics and public perception. Popular teams that have large fan bases will typically have inflated betting lines due to the large volume of bets being placed on them. This means that bettors can find value in less popular teams that are undervalued by the market. Using unique approaches combined with statistical analysis can yield significant returns over time.
Overall, betting on the NHL is similar to betting on other sports – the biggest difference is that hockey has many more advanced statistics that can be used to analyze matchups. Leveraging these stats can give you an edge over the sportsbooks as well as other bettors.
Types of NHL Bets
When you’re betting on ice hockey, you’ll find many of the same wagers that other sports have, such as the moneyline, over/unders, and props. However, the NHL is unique because it has things like puck line, alternate puck line, and the Grand Salami. Here’s a look at the most common wagers for the NHL:
Moneyline Bets
The moneyline in NHL betting is the most straightforward way to wager on a game. You’re essentially betting on which team will win the game outright, in regulation or overtime. There are no considerations for point spreads or goal margins.
- Example: Pittsburgh Penguins -120 vs Toronto Maple Leafs +135
In the above example, the Penguins are the favorites, as indicated by the negative odds. This means you need to wager more than you could potentially win. You would need to bet $120 on the Penguins to win $100.
On the opposite end, the Maple Leafs are the underdogs, as indicated by their positive odds. This means a smaller wager could yield a higher return. For example, a $100 bet on a +135 underdog would return a profit of $135 if they win, on top of getting your original $100 wager back.
3 Way Bet
The three-way bet, also sometimes referred to as the 60-minute line, allows you to wager on the outcome of a game after regulation time, but not including overtime or a shootout. Here’s how it works:
- Home Team Win: You win your bet if the home team wins the game at the end of regulation.
- Away Team Win: You win your bet if the visiting team wins the game at the end of regulation.
- Draw (X): You win your bet if the game is tied after regulation. Overtime or a shootout doesn’t affect this wager.
Each of the three outcomes will have its own odds, with the favorite to win (usually the home team) having lower odds and the draw having the highest odds, since it’s the least likely outcome.
The main difference between a three-way bet and a regular moneyline is that the three-way bet does not include overtime or a shootout. So, if you bet on the home team on a three-way line and the game goes to overtime, and they win, your bet would be a loss.
Totals & Over/Unders
In NHL over/under betting, you’re wagering on the total number of goals scored, penalty minutes assigned, etc. The sportsbook sets a number representing the predicted total goals scored in the game. This number typically falls between 5.5 and 6.5 goals, though it can vary depending on the offensive and defensive capabilities of the teams playing.
When you bet over, you win if the combined score of both teams at the end of the game (including overtime) is higher than the total set by the sportsbook.
- Example: The total is set at 5.5 goals. If the final score is 4-3 (combined score of 7 goals), your over bet wins.
When you bet under, you win if the combined score of both teams at the end of the game (including overtime) is lower than the total set by the sportsbook.
- Example: The total is set at 5.5 goals. If the final score is 2-1 (combined score of 3 goals), your under bet wins.
The format for many other bets relies on the over/under principle, such as the Puck Line and props. As we mentioned, for total wagers, you can bet on many factors, not just the total points.
Puck Line
The puck line, similar to the point spread in basketball, is a wager in NHL betting where you bet on the margin of victory, not just the winner.
The puck line spread is almost always set at 1.5 goals. This is denoted with a minus sign (-) for the favorite and a plus sign (+) for the underdog.
- Example: Tampa Bay Lightning -1.5 vs. Detroit Red Wings +1.5
The favorite here is Tampa Bay. To win your bet on the Lightning, they must win the game by two or more goals. If they win by one goal or lose the game, your bet loses.
On the other end, the Red Wings are the underdogs. For your bet on the Red Wings to win, they can either win the game outright or lose by one goal. Even a tie counts as a win for your underdog bet.
The odds for the puck line will be different from the moneyline odds (betting on the outright winner). The favorite will have lower odds (less payout) due to the higher bar they need to clear (win by 2+ goals). The underdog will have higher odds (potentially bigger payout) since they have more ways to win (win outright or lose by 1).
Alternate Puck Line
While uncommon, some sportsbooks might offer alternate puck lines with a different spread (e.g., -2.5 for the favorite). These will come with adjusted odds reflecting the higher or lower win margin needed.
These alternate puck lines are typical for matchups that are heavily weighted against one team. For example, if a team has a 0-4 record for the season so far, and they’re playing a 4-0 team, the puck line will be inflated to reflect the 4-0 team’s advantage.
Grand Salami
The Grand Salami is a unique wager that takes the total score aspect of the puck line and applies it across all the games on a given day.
Instead of focusing on a single game’s total, the Grand Salami presents a single over/under number for the combined total goals scored in all the NHL games on that particular day (or night). You have to choose whether the total number of goals scored across all the games will be over or under the number set by the sportsbook.
- Example: Let’s say there are 8 NHL games on a Tuesday. The sportsbook sets the Grand Salami total at 52.5 goals.
If you bet on the over, you win your bet if the total number of goals scored in all 8 games combined is 53 or more. (for instance, if all games are high scoring and end up with a combined score of 55 goals)
If you bet on the under, you win your bet if the total number of goals scored in all 8 games combined is 52 or fewer. (for instance, if many games are close and low-scoring, resulting in a combined total of 48 goals)
Props & Futures
NHL props and futures offer a way to wager on individual player performance or season-long outcomes rather than the result of a single game. Here’s a breakdown of the two categories:
Player Props: These bets center on what a specific player will do in a game, or sometimes across a season.
- Goal props: Will a player score a goal (yes/no) or over/under a certain number of goals scored.
- Assist props: Over/under on the number of assists a player will record.
- Shots on Goal: Over/under on the number of shots a player will take on net.
- Penalty Minutes: Over/under on a player’s penalty minutes accrued in a game.
Season-Long Futures: These bets look beyond individual games and focus on what will happen throughout the NHL season.
- Stanley Cup Winner: Wager on which team will win the championship.
- Conference Champions: Picking the winner of the Eastern or Western Conference.
- Division Winners: Betting on the team that will win each division.
- Individual Player Awards: Who will win the Hart Trophy (MVP), Vezina Trophy (Best Goalie), Norris Trophy (Best Defenseman), or Calder Trophy (Best Rookie).
- Team Point Totals: Will a specific team go over or under a set point total for the entire season.
Futures wagers are considered to be risky wagers because a lot can happen during a season. However, if you place a futures bet early and it hits at the end of the season, you’re in for a big payday since these wagers have great odds.
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How to Find NHL Betting Value
Now that you know about the core wager types for the NHL, it’s time to talk about how to find value. Typically, amateurs will look at a list of bets, choose one that seems likely, and watch the game with bated breath.
However, to take your betting game to the next level, it’s important to put more logic and reasoning behind your wagers. Here are a few core practices you should employ if you’re serious about betting on the NHL:
Analyze Game and Player Data
The best way to make informed wagers and find betting value is to keep on top of team and player statistics. Watching post-game coverage and reading professional opinions is a good way to get the bird’s-eye view, but do some extra digging.
The NHL website has a wealth of player stats you can use, and sites like ESPN keep an updated roster of data on teams and individual games.
Shop for Lines at Multiple Sportsbooks
Not all sportsbooks price their NHL lines the same. While some high-profile games might have fairly similar wagers (within 5-10 points of one another), other wagers might have a higher degree of variance.
If you’re serious about finding the best value, check at multiple sportsbooks for the best price on a wager you’re looking at. If you’re confident in the wager, why not make some extra money from it?
Read NHL Public Betting Trends
NHL public betting trends can offer some insight into the games, but it’s important to use this information strategically, not blindly follow the crowd. If a large percentage of bets (money and number of tickets) are on one team, particularly a favorite, it could be overvalued. The line might be inflated due to public perception rather than a true reflection of the teams’ strengths. Look for an upset opportunity with the underdog.
However, the public isn’t always wrong. NHL public betting trends platforms often display historic data, so you can look at the number of people who wagered on a game and the result. Use this information to decide whether you’re comfortable betting against the grain in a similar scenario.
Use a Handicapping Service
There are many people who have dedicated their careers to sniffing out the best wagers for every NHL game during the season. Fortunately for you, many of these handicappers make their picks public, so you can benefit from their expertise.
Follow a few handicappers on social media or subscribe to their newsletter. Even if you do your own research, it’s valuable to see what pro bettors are doing that you aren’t. Most handicapping services will offer probability estimates for bet success, so you can wager on only the most likely wagers.
NHL Events to Wager On
Of course, betting on NHL during the regular season is fun, but there are also a few key events you should watch out for. Things like the Draft or playoffs allow bettors to expand their sphere and find value when sportsbooks offer a wide range of options.
NHL Winter Classic (Early January)
An exciting outdoor game played on New Year’s Day or thereabouts, featuring two traditional rival teams. The location and venue change every year, adding to the spectacle. While traditional bets like moneyline and over/under are available, the Winter Classic can present unique props like which team will score the first goal or the color of the Gatorade shower for the winning team’s coach.
NHL All-Star Game (February)
A showcase of the league’s top talent, featuring a skills competition and a 3-on-3 All-Star Game between the Eastern and Western Conferences. The All-Star Game is more for entertainment than anything, but it’s a neat opportunity to see the best players on the ice together. Betting moneylines on the winner is popular, and with some research you can make an informed bet.
Stanley Cup Playoffs (April – June)
This is the culmination of the NHL season, a grueling best-of-seven series matchup between the top teams from each conference to determine the Stanley Cup Champion. The intensity and drama of the playoffs attract a lot of attention, which can sometimes lead to slightly inflated lines (especially for heavily favored teams). Savvy bettors can potentially find value by shopping around for lines and exploiting inefficiencies.
NHL Entry Draft (Late June)
This is where future NHL stars are selected by the league’s teams. The draft order is determined by the previous season’s standings (with some lottery picks for lower-performing teams).
With careful prospect research and analysis of team needs, bettors can find value on potential draft steals or surprise picks.
Advanced Statistics to Consider When Betting
One of the best ways to get an advantage over other bettors by making more informed decisions is to analyze advanced statistics. These are detailed breakdowns of specific aspects of a team or player’s performance. They can be difficult to analyze alone, but there are many handicapping services that can do this work for you.
Five of the most important NHL advanced statistics to know include:
- Corsi (CF%)
- Expected Goals (xG)
- PDO
- Goals saved above average (GSAA)
- High-Danger Scoring Chances (HDSC)
Corsi (CF%)
Corsi is a measurement of all shot attempts that a team generates versus those it allows while at even strength. This includes shots on goal, missed shots, and blocked shots. The Corsi for Percentage (CF%) is the exact ratio of a team’s attempted shots to the total number of shot attempts in a game.
Application for betting: Teams that have a higher CS% are typically more efficient with in possession of the puck. Consistently high Corsi ratings indicate a specific team’s ability to dominate play and sustain consistent offensive success. This makes them more likely to win over the long run.
Expected Goals (xG)
The expected goals metric calculates the probability that a shot will result in a goal based on several factors, such as shot location, type, and the context of the shot (such as with rebounds and rushes).
Application for betting: Quality is often better than quantity, and the expected goals metric gives you a measurement of how often teams are generating high-quality scoring opportunities, but may be underperforming due to external factors or bad luck. This can be used to identify undervalued teams that are poised for positive regression.
PDO
The PDO is the sum of a team’s shooting and save percentage. 100 is the league average, which indicated balanced luck.
Application for betting: Teams with a PDO that falls well above or below 100 are often enduring unsustainable luck. As a bettor, you can exploit this by predicting regression. Find opportunities to bet against high PDO teams and for low PDO teams.
Goals Saved Above Average (GSAA)
The GSAA is a measurement of the goaltender’s performance compared to the league average. In other words, this indicates where a goalie ranks in comparison to other goalies. This is measured by referencing how many goals a goalie has saved above the expected number of saves based on the quality and quantity of shots they faced.
Application for betting: A high GSAA indicates that a goalkeeper is playing exceptionally well. This can be crucial in tight matchups. Knowing and understanding a team’s GSAA rating can help you gauge the likelihood of the team’s defensive resilience.
High-Danger Scoring Chances (HDSC)
The HDSC is a measurement of the number of shot attempts that are made from the most dangerous areas of the ice. This typically includes the slot and immediately in front of the net.
Application for betting: Teams that are consistently generating more high-danger chances are more likely to score and win games. On the flip side, teams that allow many high-danger chances are putting themselves at risk defensively. Use this data to predict game outcomes by focusing on the quality of scoring opportunities rather than just the quantity.
NHL Hockey Betting Tips
While some of these tips might be a refresher for you, remember that they’re tried and true, and you should always employ some kind of strategy for your wagering habits.
Exploit Market Inefficiencies
The home-ice advantage is sometimes overvalued. Typically, home teams have a slight edge because they practice on the same ice, and their fans cheer them on. But not all home games are won by home teams. Research teams that travel well and target them as underdogs on the road, especially against a team that might be overlooking them.
Similarly, puck lines can offer value. A favorite winning by one goal is as common as two or three. If the odds on the favorite’s puck line are high, it might be better than the straight money line.
Bet Against Public Perception
Recent player performances and star players are often overvalued by the betting public when considering a matchup. As a result, sportsbooks are adjusting the lines to make popular opinions the most likely scenario. Find the best opportunities to bet against the popular teams or high-profile players when their odds do not reflect their actual performance expectations.
Monitor Injuries and Depth Analysis
Injuries to key players can significantly impact a team’s performance. However, the impact of injuries goes beyond star players; depth players and minor injuries can affect team chemistry and performance. Monitor injury reports and assess a team’s depth to understand the broader implications.
Consider Scheduling and Travel Fatigue
Consider the impact of back-to-back games, long road trips, and travel across time zones. Teams often perform worse in the second game of a back-to-back or after extensive travel. Analyzing schedule spots can give you an edge in predicting fatigue-related performance dips.
Make Better NHL Wagers, Make More Money
Out of all the sports to bet on, the NHL has some of the most interesting wagers. From the puck line to the Grand Salami, there’s no shortage of value for opportunists.
As you’re betting, remember to read up on stats and data, shop for lines at different sportsbooks to find the best odds, and consider using a professional handicapping service to get an edge.
Scores and Stats has a team of handicappers working around the clock during the NHL season to provide valuable insights for serious bettors. Join our premium subscription to get full access to their picks and betting data so you can start making more money with your NHL wagers.
