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The money line odds have the Astros at -216, while the Pirates are +181. This interleague matchup is set for 8:10 PM ET from Minute Maid Park in Houston, and the Astros will be looking to snap a three-game losing streak.
MLBN is carrying Wednesday’s TV coverage, and Framber Valdez and the Astros are facing the Pirates, who are 55-52 and on a three-game winning streak. Jake Woodford is starting for the Pirates. Houston is 2nd in the AL West, while the Pirates are 3rd in the NL Central.
Pittsburgh vs. Houston Key Information
- Teams: Pirates at Astros
- Where: Minute Maid Park Houston
- Date: Wednesday, July 31st
- Betting Odds HOU -216 | PIT +181 O/U 8
The Pirates Can Win If…
Jake Woodford is getting the start for the Pirates on the road against the Astros. Woodford has started two games this season, and both have been at home. In his first start, he went 4 innings and took the loss against the Blue Jays, and then he took another loss in his last start, going 4 innings and giving up 7 runs to the Red Sox.
Heading into today’s game, the Pirates are averaging 4.2 runs per game, which is 21st in the league. They have been a better offensive team on the road this season, averaging 4.4 runs per game. As a team, the Pirates are batting just .232 and are 20th in the league in home runs. However, they do have the 13th fewest strikeouts in the league and are 18th in walks.
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Bryan Reynolds comes into the game with a team-high 18 homers and is batting .287 overall. He also leads the Pirates with 61 RBIs. Reynolds is currently on a four-game hitting streak. Oneil Cruz is 2nd on the team with 17 homers but has a batting average of just .249 this season. Cruz has gone 3/13 in his last 10 games.
- The Pirates are 6-4 in their last ten games.
- Over their last five games, the Pirates are 3-2 vs. the run line.
- Pittsburgh has an over/under record of 3-7 in their last ten games.
- The Pirates have an average of 5.0 runs per game over their last five games.
- Across their last ten road games, the Pirates are 7-3
- Looking back across the Pirates last five games as the favorite, they are 4-1
- Pittsburgh has gone 1-2 in their last three games as the underdog
- In their ten most recent road games, the Pirates have averaged 4.5 runs per game on offense
The Astros Can Win If…
Framber Valdez gets the start for the Astros today and is coming off a strong outing vs. the Dodgers. In that July 26th start, he went 6 1/3 innings, picking up the win and not allowing a run. Looking back further, he has given up two earned runs in three straight starts. Valdez’s record for the season is 9-5, and he has an ERA of 3.43. Opposing batters are hitting .248 off the left-hander this season. Valdez has made 18 starts, and opponents have hit nine homers off him this year.
Yordan Alvarez has been a big power threat for the Astros this season, as his 20 homers are the best mark on the team and 11th in the league. He is also hitting .299 for the season. Yainer Diaz has been swinging a hot bat of late, going 13/32 in his last eight games, including two homers and six RBIs. Diaz is also the Astros’ current leader in RBIs for the season. Jose Altuve is also on a six-game hitting streak.
As a team, the Astros are 2nd in batting average and are averaging 4.6 runs per game. They have been even better at home, putting up 5 runs per contest. Houston is also one of the league’s best power-hitting teams, sitting 11th in homers and have the 9th best slugging percentage in the league.
- The Astros are 4-6 in their last ten games.
- Over their last five games, the Astros are 1-4 vs. the run line.
- Houston has an over/under record of 5-5 in their last ten games.
- The Astros have an average of 3.8 runs per game over their last five games.
- Across their last ten home games, the Astros are 5-5
- Looking back across the Astros last five games as the favorite, they are 3-2
- Houston has gone 1-2 in their last three games as the underdog
- In their ten most recent road games, the Astros have averaged 4.4 runs per game on offense
The Lean
As the Astros host the Pirates, we are leaning towards the Astros coming out on top, and we also like the over in this one. The Astros have our highest team hits projection and are 5th in home runs. Framber Valdez isn’t projected to work too deep into the game, but the Astros offense has our highest team runs scored projection. Jake Woodford is 6th among today’s starters in projected strikeouts.
Astros Turn to Hunter Brown in Rematch vs. Pirates
The Astros’ 5-3 misfortune to the Pittsburgh Pirates in the opener of a three-game interleague series on Monday took a back seat to the four-player trade that landed Houston Astros veteran left-hander Yusei Kikuchi from Toronto.
High Stakes Trade for Houston
The expense of carrying on with work was high for the Astros, who presently have five starting pitchers on the harmed list: Justin Verlander, Cristian Javier, Jose Urquidy, Lance McCullers Jr., and Luis Garcia. Houston traded new kid on the block right-hander Jake Bloss, freshman outfielder Joey Loperfido, and small time infielder Will Wagner to Toronto in exchange for Kikuchi.
Kikuchi (4-9, 4.75 ERA with 130 strikeouts in 115 2/3 innings) could join the Astros as early as Tuesday. He was planned to start for the Blue Jays on Wednesday, a trip that could instead come for Houston in the series finale against the Pirates. The Astros desire to open unrivaled outcomes from Kikuchi once he works with their coaching staff. Kikuchi is 0-4 with a 7.75 ERA over his last eight starts.
“To get a major league starter with that sort of arm, you must surrender a few very great players that hurt,” Astros general manager Dana Brown said. “It’s quite challenging to surrender youthful talent, however at the day’s end, we’re attempting to really stabilize our rotation so we can return to the postseason and potentially get profound into the postseason.”
Hunter Brown’s Crucial Role
Right-hander Hunter Brown (9-6, 4.00 ERA) is scheduled to start for the Astros on Tuesday. Brown recorded his team-leading 12th quality start on Wednesday after allowing one run on eight hits and one walk with eight strikeouts over six innings in an 8-1 victory over the Oakland Athletics. He has logged six-plus innings in 12 consecutive starts, the second-longest streak in the majors this season. Brown is 8-2 with a 2.10 ERA and a .590 OPS allowed during that stretch.
Brown will make his first career start against the Pirates. He is 4-6 with a 4.45 ERA in 15 career appearances (11 starts) against the National League.
Pirates’ Pitching Challenges
Left-hander Bailey Falter (4-7, 4.08 ERA) will take the hill for the Pirates. Falter was reinstated from the harmed list on Monday after missing 17 games with left rear arm muscles tendonitis. Falter worked just two innings in his last start before his IL spell, allowing three sudden spikes in demand for five hits and two walks with two strikeouts in a 5-2 misfortune to the New York Mets on July 6. That marked his fifth misfortune in six choices after Falter went 1-4 with a 5.63 ERA in June.
Falter is 0-1 with a 6.75 ERA in two career starts against the Astros. He allowed four runs on eight hits and three walks with three strikeouts over 4 1/3 innings in a 4-3 loss to Houston on April 30, 2023, while pitching for the Philadelphia Phillies.
Injury Concerns for the Pirates
The Pirates’ comeback win on Monday came with a measure of concern as both right fielder Joshua Palacios (left hamstring) and center fielder Ji Hwan Bae (left knee) departed due to injury.
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Palacios was removed in the bottom of the fifth inning and replaced in the lineup by Michael A. Taylor, who clubbed the game-winning, three-run home run in the top of the ninth. Bae initially shifted from center to right to replace Palacios, but he sustained an injury trying to avoid the tag of Astros first baseman Jon Singleton following his leadoff bunt in the sixth inning.
“I think we’ll do a better job of getting evaluated,” Pirates manager Derek Shelton said. “Ji just landed funny and it scared him as much as anything because of the way he dove away to get away from Singleton. Overall, we’ll know more (Tuesday morning).”
Recap of Monday’s Game
Michael A. Taylor hit a tiebreaking three-run homerun with two outs in the 10th inning to help the meeting Pittsburgh Pirates earn a 5-3 triumph over the Houston Astros on Monday. After Oneil Cruz conveyed a game-tying RBI twofold off Astros reliever Ryan Pressly in the highest point of the eighth, Taylor followed walks by Ke’Bryan Hayes and Jared Triolo with a 421-foot blast to left-focus field off Astros closer Josh Hader.
Pirates nearer David Bednar gave a bases-loaded walk to Yordan Alvarez with two outs in the 10th however scored his nineteenth save by resigning Yainer Diaz on an infield popup.
Astros’ Warm up area Performance
Astros right-hander Kaleb Ort, recalled from Triple-A Sugar Land earlier Monday, resigned the initial eight batters he faced prior to surrendering a performance homer to Yasmani Grandal, the main hit of the game for the Pirates. This diminished Pittsburgh’s shortfall to 2-1.
With significant changes to their rotation and warm up area, the Astros hope to stabilize their contributing and quickly return the series against the Pirates. The result will rely heavily on how well Tracker Brown performs and whether the Astros’ warm up area can hold up under tension.
