2024 Mountain West Conference Football Odds and Predictions

The Mountain West Conference will undergo some changes in 2024. The league’s best team, Boise State, is back to defend its conference championship from a year ago. Six of the Mountain West’s 12 teams will have new head coaches in 2024. That includes Boise State, which had somewhat of a bizarre 2023 season.

After Andy Avalos was fired in November, Spencer Danielson was named the interim head coach. Danielson led the Broncos to two wins in their final two regular season games and then guide Boise State to a 44-20 win over UNLV in the Mountain West Conference championship game. The Broncos lost their bowl game and wound up 8-6 and Danielson ended up with a new job as head coach at Boise.

San Diego State, Nevada, Wyoming, New Mexico, and San Jose State are the other programs with new head coaches this season. With so much turnover, it will be tough for any Mountain West team to end up playing for an NCAA championship. Scores & Stats will have all of your college football coverage from the start of the season all the way through the Mountain West championship game and the College Football Playoff.

The Mountain West Conference regular season will start in mid- to late-September for most members. The regular season will end on Nov. 30 and the MWC championship game will be played on Friday, Dec. 6. Scores & Stats will have all of your NCAA football odds for that game as well as all the other games throughout this entire season. Our experts will offer analysis as well as the best college football picks in the industry.

Mountain West Conference Realignment

The Mountain West does not lose or gain any teams this season. The conference remains at 12 teams and it got rid of divisions after the 2022 season. The top two teams in winning percentage at the end of the regular season play each other for the Mountain West championship.

There is one big change though for Mountain West teams. With the Pac-12 falling apart, only Washington State and Oregon State remained. The Mountain West entered into a scheduling agreement with both schools. Both the Cougars and Beavers will play six Mountain West schools in 2024. The conference shifts to a seven-game schedule to accommodate those games.

2024 Mountain West Conference Odds

Check out the latest Mountain West conference odds, courtesy of the top sports betting sites:

Who Wins the 2024 Mountain West Football Championship?

This is Boise State’s conference title to lose. The Broncos are a huge -105 favorite to win a second consecutive conference championship. Danielson will return a total of 16 starters and while another Mountain West title is on the horizon, so to is a potential berth in the new 12-team College Football Playoff.

The Broncos biggest competition will come from last year’s MWC runner-up, UNLV, and from Fresno State. Both the Rebels and Bulldogs will return 14 starters from last year’s teams. Both schools also keep their head coaches as half of the league has new men running their programs.

Boise State -105

• Head coach: Spencer Danielson
• 2023 Record: 8-6 (6-2)

The Broncos return the MWC Offensive Player of the Year in RB Ashton Jeanty. He rushed for 1,347 yards and 14 touchdowns and caught 45 passes for 569 yards and five more scores. Four starters return on an offensive line that helped Boise State finish sixth in the nation in rushing (214.9 ypg) last season. Malachi Nelson, a former five-star prospect and USC transfer, takes over at quarterback.

The Boise State defense returns eight starters and should be improved under new defensive coordinator Erik Chinander. The Broncos play at Oregon on Sept. 7 and then close the season with Oregon State at home. Another Mountain West conference run will give the Broncos their sixth MWC title and the potential to crack the 12-team CFP.

Fresno State +350

• Head coach: Jeff Tedford
• 2023 Record: 9-4 (4-4)

Fresno State started last season 8-1. The only loss was an upset at the hands of Wyoming. Head coach Jeff Tedford returns eight starters from an offense that averaged 30.5 points per game. He might have the best quarterback in the league in Mikey Keene, an All-MWC selection, who threw for 2,976 yards and 24 touchdowns last season. Four starters are back on the offensive line as is RB Malik Sherrod, who just missed the 1,000-yard mark last year.

The defense will make the difference for the Bulldogs. Traditionally pretty stout, last season Fresno State allowed 23.5 points per game. The Bulldogs will have five returning starters, plus they get USC transfer Korey Foreman at one of the defensive ends. Fresno State will be tested early. They open the season on Aug. 31 at Michigan.

UNLV +600

• Head coach: Barry Odom
• 2023 Record: 9-5 (6-2)

UNLV was one of the nation’s top stories in 2023. They started the season 5-1 with the only loss coming at Michigan in Week 2. It was the first season for Odom and for the Go-Go offense of offensive coordinator Brennan Marion. The Rebels lost QB Jayden Maiava when he transferred to USC, but they replaced him with two former FCS standouts. Hajj-Malik Williams, formerly of Campbell, shined in the spring. Matthew Sluka, who had 1,723 passing yards and 1,243 rushing yards at Holy Cross last year, arrives in the fall.

The Rebels defense needs some work. UNLV allowed 28.6 points per game in 2023. Odom and defensive coordinator Mike Scherer added three FBS transfers in the portal. All three play in the secondary. With seven returning starters and plenty of depth, the Rebels should be right in the thick of the Mountain West Conference race from beginning to end in 2024.

2024 Mountain West Football Championship Prediction

There is a reason why Boise State is a -105 favorite to win the MWC. Danielson auditioned for and won the head coaching job with his performance down the stretch. The Broncos have the reigning MWC Offensive Player of the Year back – Ashton Jeanty. Four starters on the offensive line return. Nelson is a talent that can step right in and make some noise. Expect the Broncos to be better on defense where they have eight starters back.

Bet: Boise State -105

Will Any Mountain West Football Teams Make the Playoffs?

As mentioned, the Mountain West has a history of getting teams to New Year’s Six bowl games and even to the playoffs. Boise State, of course, is the favorite to win the conference title. With the title in hand, the Broncos could be one of the five highest-ranked conference champions at the end of the season. If that’s the case, the Mountain West will have an entrant in the postseason. The Broncos have the advantage of playing Oregon early in the season. That could give them an edge in rankings over an AAC champion.

Bet: Boise State to Make Playoffs +450

The Best Mountain West Football Teams Overs

Air Force must replace Zac Larrier at quarterback, but the good news is that junior John Busha got plenty of reps late last season. The Falcons were second in the nation in rushing last season (281.5 ypg) and their triple option offense gives teams fits. Head coach Troy Calhoun will have to replace the entire offensive line for the second time in five years, but consider this. Over the past five years, Air Force has finished either first or second nationally in rushing yards per game. With a favorable schedule, the Falcons get to at least seven wins once again.

Bet: Air Force Over 6.5 Wins

The resurrection of the Hawaii Warriors is underway under former star quarterback Timmy Chang. Hawaii won five games last year and the schedule gives them an opportunity to do the same in 2024. The Warriors have two games against FCS opponents and they get Nevada and New Mexico at home. Brayden Shrager (3,542 passing yds.) is back among six offensive starters. The Warriors should be able to pull an upset and get to that fifth win again.

Bet: Hawaii Over 4.5 Wins

The Best Mountain West Football Teams Unders

The offseason situation at Utah State threw this program for a loop. Unfortunately, it’s going to carry over to the season. Blake Anderson was fired over the summer and defensive coordinator Nate Dreiling takes over as interim head coach. The offense does have nine starters back, but not a quarterback. Former Iowa QB Spencer Petras should start. The defense returns just four starters from a unit that was one of the worst in the nation in 2023. Utah State allowed 34.7 points per game (120th) last season. The non-conference schedule includes USC, Utah, and Washington State.

Bet: Utah State Under 5.5 Wins

San Diego State is one of the six Mountain West programs with a new head coach. Sean Lewis takes over the Aztecs as they look to jump start an offense that scored just 20.5 points per game last season. The thing about Lewis is that his offense takes some time to get used to. It’s an up-tempo spread and the Aztecs defense, which ranked 97th in total defense last season, might suffer too. When Lewis took over at Kent State, his first head coaching job, the Golden Flashes went 2-10.

Bet: San Diego State Under 5.5 Wins

The Mountain West Football Team Sleeper

One might not think of them as a sleeper, but the Air Force Falcons lost a ton of talent from last year’s 9-4 team. They will have to replace a triple-option quarterback that was a Mountain West champion in track too. But, Troy Calhoun is one of the best coaches in the business. The Falcons have finished No. 1 or 2 in each of the last five years in rushing offense. When you can run the ball, good things happen.

Defensively, Air Force finished in the top-20 against the run, pass, total defense, and scoring last season. Only three starters return, but Calhoun has a knack for getting the best out of undersized athletes that are extremely disciplined. The Falcons play at Baylor on Sept. 14, but the Bears were a 3-9 team last season. Air Force doesn’t play Boise State or UNLV. That could give them the opportunity to play for a Mountain West championship at the end of the season.

Mountain West Heisman Watch

Like most Group of 5 conferences, getting players into the Heisman Trophy discussion isn’t easy. Typically, Heisman winners come from championship caliber teams. Boise State is the MWC favorite and the Broncos could find themselves in the playoff mix come season’s end. It’s also a known fact that quarterbacks win more Heismans than any other position. That’s why Boise State’s Malachi Nelson was listed at +50000 when the Heisman Trophy odds were first released and RB Ashton Jeanty was not.

If the Broncos are in the thick of the CFP race, it will likely be because of Nelson. It probably will also be due to another outstanding season by Jeanty. UNLV’s Ricky White III had 1,438 receiving yards last season and he’s a former transfer from Michigan State. The Mountain West will have some guys with numbers, but what the conference won’t have is a Heisman Trophy winner.