Houston Astros vs Pittsburgh Pirates Picks and Predictions July 31st 2024

New-look Pirates vie for series sweep of Astros

The money line odds have the Astros at -216, while the Pirates are +181. This interleague matchup is set for 8:10 PM ET from Minute Maid Park in Houston, and the Astros will be looking to snap a three-game losing streak.

MLBN is carrying Wednesday’s TV coverage, and Framber Valdez and the Astros are facing the Pirates, who are 55-52 and on a three-game winning streak. Jake Woodford is starting for the Pirates. Houston is 2nd in the AL West, while the Pirates are 3rd in the NL Central.

Pittsburgh vs. Houston Key Information

• Teams: Pirates at Astros
• Where: Minute Maid Park Houston
• Date: Wednesday, July 31st
• Betting Odds HOU -216 | PIT +181 O/U 8

The Pirates Can Win If…

Jake Woodford is getting the start for the Pirates on the road against the Astros. Woodford has started two games this season, and both have been at home. In his first start, he went 4 innings and took the loss against the Blue Jays, and then he took another loss in his last start, going 4 innings and giving up 7 runs to the Red Sox.

Heading into today’s game, the Pirates are averaging 4.2 runs per game, which is 21st in the league. They have been a better offensive team on the road this season, averaging 4.4 runs per game. As a team, the Pirates are batting just .232 and are 20th in the league in home runs. However, they do have the 13th fewest strikeouts in the league and are 18th in walks.

Bryan Reynolds comes into the game with a team-high 18 homers and is batting .287 overall. He also leads the Pirates with 61 RBIs. Reynolds is currently on a four-game hitting streak. Oneil Cruz is 2nd on the team with 17 homers but has a batting average of just .249 this season. Cruz has gone 3/13 in his last 10 games.

• The Pirates are 6-4 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Pirates are 3-2 vs. the run line.
• Pittsburgh has an over/under record of 3-7 in their last ten games.
• The Pirates have an average of 5.0 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten road games, the Pirates are 7-3
• Looking back across the Pirates last five games as the favorite, they are 4-1
• Pittsburgh has gone 1-2 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Pirates have averaged 4.5 runs per game on offense

The Astros Can Win If…

Framber Valdez gets the start for the Astros today and is coming off a strong outing vs. the Dodgers. In that July 26th start, he went 6 1/3 innings, picking up the win and not allowing a run. Looking back further, he has given up two earned runs in three straight starts. Valdez’s record for the season is 9-5, and he has an ERA of 3.43. Opposing batters are hitting .248 off the left-hander this season. Valdez has made 18 starts, and opponents have hit nine homers off him this year.

Yordan Alvarez has been a big power threat for the Astros this season, as his 20 homers are the best mark on the team and 11th in the league. He is also hitting .299 for the season. Yainer Diaz has been swinging a hot bat of late, going 13/32 in his last eight games, including two homers and six RBIs. Diaz is also the Astros’ current leader in RBIs for the season. Jose Altuve is also on a six-game hitting streak.

As a team, the Astros are 2nd in batting average and are averaging 4.6 runs per game. They have been even better at home, putting up 5 runs per contest. Houston is also one of the league’s best power-hitting teams, sitting 11th in homers and have the 9th best slugging percentage in the league.

• The Astros are 4-6 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Astros are 1-4 vs. the run line.
• Houston has an over/under record of 5-5 in their last ten games.
• The Astros have an average of 3.8 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten home games, the Astros are 5-5
• Looking back across the Astros last five games as the favorite, they are 3-2
• Houston has gone 1-2 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Astros have averaged 4.4 runs per game on offense

The Lean

As the Astros host the Pirates, we are leaning towards the Astros coming out on top, and we also like the over in this one. The Astros have our highest team hits projection and are 5th in home runs. Framber Valdez isn’t projected to work too deep into the game, but the Astros offense has our highest team runs scored projection. Jake Woodford is 6th among today’s starters in projected strikeouts.

The Pittsburgh Pirates have made significant roster changes to boost their postseason chances. Their recent 6-2 win against the Houston Astros showcases their strengthened lineup and pitching staff. With new additions like Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Bryan De La Cruz, the Pirates are geared up for a potential series sweep.

Pirates’ Recent Trades and Their Impact

Fortifying the Roster: The Pirates have been proactive in the trade market, acquiring several players to enhance their playoff push. These strategic moves are a clear indication of their commitment to making a deep postseason run.

Key Acquisitions:

• Josh Walker and Jalen Beeks: These left-handed relievers add depth to the Pirates’ bullpen, providing crucial support in high-leverage situations.
• Isiah Kiner-Falefa: Known for his versatility, Kiner-Falefa brings defensive prowess and a solid bat to the Pirates. His ability to play multiple positions makes him an invaluable asset.
• Bryan De La Cruz: With a respectable slash line and notable power, De La Cruz strengthens the outfield and adds much-needed power to the lineup.

Player Profiles and Manager’s Insights

Isiah Kiner-Falefa: Kiner-Falefa’s defensive versatility and offensive contributions make him a key player. Manager Derek Shelton praised his teamwork and adaptability, highlighting his Gold Glove-winning capability.

Bryan De La Cruz: De La Cruz offers power and consistency. His performance with the Marlins (.245/.289/.417) underscores his potential to contribute significantly to the Pirates’ offensive strategy.

Pitching Reinforcements and Strategy

Josh Walker and Jalen Beeks: Adding these left-handed relievers enhances the Pirates’ bullpen, providing more options and flexibility for late-game scenarios. Their experience and skill sets are expected to play crucial roles in tight games.

Game Performance and Statistics

Jake Woodford’s Role: Woodford, newly promoted from Triple-A Indianapolis, will start the series finale. Despite a rocky start to the season, his experience and recent performance offer a glimmer of hope for stabilizing the rotation.

Framber Valdez’s Challenge: Valdez, a formidable pitcher for the Astros, presents a tough challenge. His recent success and historical performance against the Pirates set the stage for a compelling matchup.

Astros’ Struggles and Manager’s Perspective

Astros’ Recent Form: The Astros have hit a rough patch, marked by errors and a loss of form. Their recent defeat and subsequent fall from the top of the AL West reflect their current struggles.

Joe Espada’s Focus: Astros manager Joe Espada emphasizes the need to move past the loss and focus on the upcoming game. Maintaining composure and readiness is crucial as the team aims to end their losing streak.

Conclusion

The Pittsburgh Pirates, bolstered by recent trades, are poised for a series sweep against the Houston Astros. Their strategic acquisitions and pitching reinforcements underline their determination to secure a postseason berth. As they prepare for the series finale, all eyes will be on how these new additions perform under pressure.

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