Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Diego Padres Picks and Predictions August 7th 2024

Surging Padres pursue series victory over Pirates

There appears to be a chance for light rain in Pittsburgh on Wednesday, where the forecasted temperature is 83 degrees. The Padres are on a three-game winning streak and are 62-52 overall, while the Pirates are 56-56 and will be looking to end a two-game losing streak.

San Diego is the money line favorite (-149), and the over/under line is sitting at 8 runs. This NL matchup is set for 6:40 PM ET from PNC Park in Pittsburgh, and the Pirates are starting Marco Gonzales. Michael King is slated to start for the Padres.

San Diego vs. Pittsburgh Key Information

• Teams: Padres at Pirates
• Where: PNC Park Pittsburgh
• Date: Wednesday, August 7th
• Betting Odds SD -149 | PIT +127 O/U 8

The Padres Can Win If…

Right-hander Michael King gets the start for the Padres today as he faces off against the Pirates on the road. He has made 21 starts this season and has a record of 9-6 with a 3.26 ERA. King has pitched well on the road, coming in with a record of 8-2 and an ERA of 3.14. In his last outing, he went 6 1/3 innings, giving up two earned runs on nine hits. King picked up the win in that outing. Before that, he had won two straight starts. One area to watch is his walk total, as he is averaging 3.26 walks per nine innings compared to 10.42 strikeouts.

The Padres come into today’s game with the best team batting average in the league at .265, and they are also the top team in the league at avoiding strikeouts. San Diego has been a good home run hitting team this season, and they are averaging 4.7 runs per game, which is 12th in the league. The Padres have been even better on the road, averaging 4.9 runs per contest.

Jurickson Profar has been a key power bat for the Padres this season, as his 19 home runs are the most on the team and 12th in the league. Profar is also 11th in the league with 71 RBIs. Over his last five games, he has gone 6/19 with a homer. Manny Machado has also been swinging a hot bat of late, going 7/20 in his last five games.

• The Padres are 8-2 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Padres are 3-2 vs. the run line.
• San Diego has an over/under record of 6-4 in their last ten games.
• The Padres have an average of 5.8 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten road games, the Padres are 8-2
• Looking back across the Padres last five games as the favorite, they are 4-1
• San Diego has gone 2-1 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Padres have averaged 5.5 runs per game on offense

The Pirates Can Win If…

Marco Gonzales gets the start for the Pirates today and will be looking to bounce back from a rough outing vs. the Diamondbacks. In that start, he went just 2 1/3 innings, giving up four earned runs, and taking the loss. Looking back further, Gonzales has made two straight starts where he has allowed a home run. Overall, he has made six starts, and opponents are batting .299 this season. Gonzales’ ERA is 3.72, and his WHIP is 1.52. So far, he has made two quality starts and has a record of 1-1.

Over the past 10 games, Joey Bart has been swinging a hot bat for the Pirates, going 12/34 (.353) with two homers and seven RBIs. Oneil Cruz has also been swinging the bat well, going 11/37 in his last nine games. Cruz also has two home runs during this stretch. However, Michael A. Taylor has also gone deep twice in his last nine games but is batting just .200.

For the season, Bryan Reynolds and Bryan De La Cruz have been the Pirates’ top power threats, as Reynolds has 19 homers and De La Cruz has 18. Reynolds is also batting .286 and has driven in 66 runs, which is 15th in the MLB. As a team, the Pirates are 20th in scoring at 4.2 runs per game and have a team batting average of just .233.

• The Pirates are 4-6 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Pirates are 3-2 vs. the run line.
• Pittsburgh has an over/under record of 6-4 in their last ten games.
• The Pirates have an average of 4.2 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten home games, the Pirates are 7-3
• Looking back across the Pirates last five games as the favorite, they are 3-2
• Pittsburgh has gone 1-2 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Pirates have averaged 4.9 runs per game on offense

The Lean

For an over/under pick, our lean is on the over, as this is projected to be the 5th highest-scoring game of the day. As for a straight-up pick, we are leaning toward the Pirates to come out on top. Looking at today’s starters, we have Marco Gonzales as the better strikeout option over Michael King for the Padres.

The San Diego Padres are making headlines with their post-All-Star break surge, winning 12 of their last 15 games. As they face off against the Pittsburgh Pirates in a crucial three-game series, the Padres aim to strengthen their playoff position and close the gap with the NL West leaders, the Los Angeles Dodgers. Let’s delve into the highlights and strategic elements that define this captivating series.

San Diego Padres’ Winning Streak

Since the All-Star break, the Padres have been a formidable force, showcasing resilience and focus. Their recent 6-0 victory over the Pirates in the series opener exemplified their ability to overcome challenges, including a 2-hour, 40-minute rain delay. This win not only placed them at the top of the National League wild-card standings but also brought them within four games of the Dodgers in the NL West.

Key Players Driving Success

• Bryan Hoeing: The San Diego reliever played a pivotal role in the victory, demonstrating exceptional focus and determination despite the lengthy delay. His performance earned him the win and highlighted the depth of the Padres’ bullpen.
• Donovan Solano: Solano’s impressive 4-for-5 performance with four RBIs against the Pirates continues his strong record in Pittsburgh, where he boasts a .533 batting average. His contributions have been instrumental in the Padres’ recent success.

Strategic Focus

San Diego’s strategy emphasizes taking one game at a time, a sentiment echoed by third baseman Manny Machado. The team is acutely aware of the challenge posed by the Dodgers but remains focused on maintaining their current momentum and securing every win possible.

Challenges Facing the Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pittsburgh Pirates are in a challenging position, having lost four of their last five games. Despite a brief winning streak, they remain four games behind the Atlanta Braves, who hold the final NL wild-card spot. The Pirates are grappling with several hurdles as they aim to turn their fortunes around.

Player Adjustments and Struggles

• Bryan De La Cruz: Acquired from the Miami Marlins, De La Cruz has struggled to find his rhythm with the Pirates. With a 1-for-18 record since joining the team, he is under pressure to adjust and deliver impactful performances.
• Managerial Insights: Pirates manager Derek Shelton is working closely with De La Cruz to help him acclimate to his new team. Shelton emphasized the importance of not trying to do too much too quickly, recognizing the need for a more measured approach.

Pitching Strategy and Bullpen Depth

• Marco Gonzales: The left-hander is set to start for the Pirates, aiming for a strong performance after a brief outing in his last game. With a career record of 1-0 and a 3.60 ERA against the Padres, Gonzales is expected to provide stability on the mound.
• Bullpen Considerations: The rain delay in the series opener forced the Pirates to rely heavily on their bullpen, a factor that could influence their pitching strategy in upcoming games. Manager Shelton is collaborating with pitching coach Oscar Marin to optimize bullpen usage.

Competitive Dynamics and Playoff Implications

The series between the Padres and Pirates underscores the competitive nature of the MLB, particularly in the National League. The Padres’ pursuit of the Dodgers and their quest for a playoff spot adds intensity to each game, while the Pirates strive to regain momentum and remain in contention for the postseason.

Padres’ Playoff Aspirations

The Padres are leveraging their recent successes to solidify their playoff position. With key players like Hoeing and Solano stepping up, they are poised to challenge the Dodgers for the NL West title and secure their spot in the postseason.

Pirates’ Path Forward

The Pirates face an uphill battle to stay competitive in the playoff race. With strategic adjustments and improved performances from new acquisitions like De La Cruz, they aim to overcome recent struggles and gain ground in the standings.

Conclusion

The San Diego Padres and Pittsburgh Pirates are at pivotal points in their MLB seasons, with the Padres riding a wave of success and the Pirates facing challenges as they strive for a series victory. This matchup highlights the dynamic nature of baseball, where momentum, strategy, and individual performances can shape the course of a team’s season. As the series unfolds, both teams will be tested, with playoff aspirations and competitive pride driving their efforts on the field.

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