Kansas City Royals vs Boston Red Sox Picks and Predictions August 7th 2024

Royals, desperate for bullpen turnaround, host Red Sox

Both the Red Sox and Royals will be looking to pick up a win and end their current losing streaks, as Boston has dropped three straight and Kansas City has lost two. The money line odds have the Red Sox at +123 compared to the Royals at -146. This game’s over/under line is at 8.5 runs.

First pitch from Kauffman Stadium is set for 8:10 PM ET, and the forecast for Wednesday’s matchup calls for clear skies and temperatures near 90 degrees. NESN will be televising this AL matchup, and the Red Sox are 3rd in the AL East, while the Royals are 3rd in the AL Central. Kutter Crawford is starting for the Red Sox, and he is facing off against Cole Ragans.

Boston vs. Kansas City Key Information

• Teams: Red Sox at Royals
• Where: Kauffman Stadium Kansas City
• Date: Wednesday, August 7th
• Betting Odds KC -146 | BOS +123 O/U 8.5

The Red Sox Can Win If…

Right-hander Kutter Crawford is getting the start for the Red Sox today as he faces the Royals on the road. He has made 22 starts this season and has a record of 7-8 with a 3.81 ERA. Crawford’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.09, and opponents are batting .224 off him this year. In his 22 starts, he has turned in 11 quality starts and is averaging 8.6 strikeouts per nine innings. Crawford’s most recent outing came against the Rangers, where he picked up the win, going 5 1/3 innings and giving up five earned runs. He has allowed at least one homer in each of his last three outings.

As a team, the Red Sox are the top OPS team in the league and are the 2nd best team in terms of batting average, hitting a combined .263. They are also near the top of the league in home runs and have the 4th best scoring offense in the league at 5 runs per game. Boston has been even better on the road, averaging 5.3 runs per contest.

Rafael Devers has been one of the league’s top power hitters this season, as his 25 home runs are the best mark on the team and 6th best in the league. He is also 12th in the league with 70 RBIs. Devers is batting .304 for the season. Jarren Duran has been hot of late, going 9/26 in his last eight games, and is currently on an eight-game hitting streak.

• The Red Sox are 6-4 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Red Sox are 4-1 vs. the run line.
• Boston has an over/under record of 9-1 in their last ten games.
• The Red Sox have an average of 7.4 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten road games, the Red Sox are 5-5
• Looking back across the Red Sox last five games as the favorite, they are 3-2
• Boston has gone 3-0 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Red Sox have averaged 7.0 runs per game on offense

The Royals Can Win If…

Cole Ragans gets the start for the Royals today as he faces off against the Red Sox at home. He has made 23 starts this season and has a record of 8-7 with a 3.36 ERA. So far, Ragans has turned in 15 quality starts and is coming off an outing in which he gave up just two earned runs in 5 2/3 innings of work. In that outing, he didn’t give up a homer. Looking back, he has given up a homer in three of his last four starts. Ragans’ ERA at home is 5.85 compared to 2.88 on the road.

So far this season, the Royals are averaging 4.7 runs per game, which is 10th in the league. They have been even better at home, putting up 5.2 runs per contest. Overall, the team is batting .253, which is 7th in the league, and they are also one of the best teams in terms of avoiding strikeouts. As a team, they are 2nd in the league in home runs and have three players with at least 19 homers.

Bobby Witt Jr. and Salvador Perez have been two of the league’s top power hitters this season, as they are tied for 11th in the league with 20 homers. Witt Jr. comes into the game batting .343, while Perez is hitting .279. Witt Jr. also has 80 RBIs, which is 6th in the league. Over his last eight games, Vinnie Pasquantino has gone 13/35 (.371) with five homers.

• The Royals are 6-4 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Royals are 1-4 vs. the run line.
• Kansas City has an over/under record of 7-3 in their last ten games.
• The Royals have an average of 5.4 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten home games, the Royals are 7-3
• Looking back across the Royals last five games as the favorite, they are 2-3
• Kansas City has gone 0-3 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Royals have averaged 5.6 runs per game on offense

The Lean

Today’s Red Sox and Royals matchup should feature plenty of offense, as this is projected to be the 7th highest-scoring game of today’s league slate. Our lean would be towards taking the over. As for who is going to take this one straight up, we have our lean on the Red Sox to pick up the win. Boston’s offense has our 8th highest home run projection, and Kutter Crawford has the 6th best chance to earn the win among today’s starters.

Facing the visiting Boston Red Sox on Wednesday night in the finale of a crucial three-game series, the Kansas City Royals’ bullpen remains under heightened scrutiny.

Since July 23, Kansas City has won seven of 14 games, primarily due to hot hitting and solid starting pitching. However, the bullpen has five blown saves in that span, with closer James McArthur suffering the most damage, allowing 11 runs—nine earned—in seven games. McArthur allowed multiple runs in three games, taking two blown saves for losses. Despite these struggles, Royals manager Matt Quatraro remains confident in his closer.

“If we’re going to win games, he’s going to be a big part of this,” Quatraro said. “He’s going to get outs, and we’re not running away from him.”

Bullpen Reinforcements

To address their bullpen weakness before the trade deadline, the Royals acquired right-handers Hunter Harvey and Lucas Erceg. Harvey has allowed runs in three of six appearances with Kansas City, including a pair of ninth-inning runs in a 6-5, extra-inning loss to the Detroit Tigers on Saturday. He rebounded for a save the next day.

“We’re going to take our chances every time we go to the ninth 3-1 with him on the mound,” Quatraro said.

Angel Zerpa also recently ran into trouble, allowing five hits while facing six batters in Monday’s 9-5 loss to Boston, allowing two inherited runners to score before surrendering four of his own.

Key Matchup: Cole Ragans vs. Kutter Crawford

Kansas City will send left-hander Cole Ragans (8-7, 3.36 ERA) to the mound in Wednesday’s series finale. In two career starts against the Red Sox, Ragans is 1-0 with a 1.32 ERA. He earned the win on July 12 in Boston, allowing a run on four hits in seven innings, striking out seven. Over his past four starts, he is 3-1 with a 3.70 ERA.

Looking for their first series sweep since July 2-4 at Miami, the Red Sox will counter with right-hander Kutter Crawford (7-8, 3.81 ERA), who has won four of his past five decisions despite surrendering 12 homers in his past three games. Crawford is 1-2 in three starts against the Royals, posting a 4.70 ERA, and earned the win on July 13 with seven innings of three-hit shutout pitching.

Red Sox’s Recent Performance

Trailing the Royals by a half-game in the chase for the final American League wild-card spot, the Red Sox have won four of five games against them this season. Masataka Yoshida led Boston to wins in the first two games, collecting six hits—three for extra bases—and homered in Tuesday’s 6-5 win.

“He’s the guy we envisioned when we signed him,” Red Sox manager Alex Cora said. “He was this guy in Japan. He was this guy early in the season until he was banged up, but right now he’s locked in.”

Monday’s win gave Cora 500 victories as manager, fourth-most in club history, trailing Joe Cronin (1,071), Terry Francona (744), and Pinky Higgins (560).

“It’s great, but it’s more an organizational thing than actually me,” Cora said. “I don’t make errors anymore. I don’t hit the ball out of the ballpark, although I didn’t do that much. It’s more about people that have worked with me and the players that have performed. Working with these guys on a daily basis is amazing. They still push me to be better. We have some great coaches, great leaders.”

Conclusion

The Kansas City Royals are in a critical period, striving to overcome their bullpen issues as they face a formidable opponent in the Boston Red Sox. With key acquisitions and strategic adjustments, the Royals hope to stabilize their bullpen and secure vital wins. Meanwhile, the Red Sox continue to leverage strong performances and tactical management as they push for a wild-card spot. This matchup not only highlights the immediate stakes but also underscores the broader strategies and resilience of both teams in the competitive landscape of Major League Baseball.

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