2024 La Liga Odds and Predictions

August is soccer month. In addition to the final stages of the men’s and women’s Olympic soccer tournaments, most major domestic European leagues will also kick off their 2024-25 campaigns. The English Premier League will get underway on Friday, August 16th, while Spain’s La Liga starts a day earlier on the 15th.

While there is generally some parity in European soccer, that isn’t generally the case in La Liga. This league is typically dominated by a trio of powers – Real Madrid, Barcelona, and Atletico Madrid. Real have been the most successful of the 3 in recent years, and they’re currently favored to win the league title again in 2024-25, per online sportsbooks.

Is there betting on Real Madrid as odds-on La Liga favorites? Or are you better off taking a stab at a value option and hoping the Madridistas implode? Let’s dive right into the 2024 La Liga title odds.

2024-25 La Liga Title Odds

Real Madrid: -250

Real Madrid is the favorite to clinch the 2024-25 La Liga title, with odds set at -250. Madrid are the class of world soccer at the moment, and they’re showing no signs of slowing. Los Blancos won the league title a season ago for the 35th time. That’s easily the most titles any club has won in Spain’s top flight. It was also Madrid’s 3rd league title in the last 5 years. In the 2 seasons they failed to lift the trophy, they finished as runners-up.

Unfortunately for the rest of La Liga, the rich got richer this summer. Madrid secured the signature of France star man Kylian Mbappe, who’s been flirting with a move to Spain for the last handful of years. Not only is Mbappe widely considered to be the best attacker in the world right now, but he’s also still only 25 years old. Madrid will have France’s captain in the mix during the prime of his career.

Mbappe joins a stacked side that already features an impossible collection of attacking talent including Vinicius Junior, Jude Bellingham, Federico Valverde, and Rodrygo. Mbappe’s arrival has overshadowed that of Endrick, whom many believe to be one of the best young attacking talents on the planet.

Madrid are stacked in midfield. They’re loaded in defense. Goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois – who missed just about all of last season with a torn ACL – is back. Courtois may be the most dominant keeper in Europe. There are no weaknesses in this side, and expectations at the Santiago Bernabeu have never been higher.

If Real Madrid fail to win multiple trophies this season, it will be widely regarded as a failure of epic proportions. This squad is deeper and more talented than the one that won La Liga by a 10-point margin over Barcelona.

Barcelona: +350

Barcelona, with odds of +350, remains a strong contender for the title. While Barcelona’s history stacks up favorably next to that of their chief rivals from Madrid, the Blaugrana have fallen on relatively hard times of late. Financial woes have plagued the club, and it has hampered its ability to build a team as heavy on stars as that of Real Madrid.

That said, there’s still reason for optimism. Were they in just about any other major league in Europe, Barcelona would be likely title favorites. Barcelona features quite a bit of young and impressive home-grown talent. Pedri, Gavi, and Ronald Araujo played starring roles for their respective home nations in the Euros and Copa America this summer. That’s to say nothing of 17-year-old Lamine Yamal, who appears to be on the fast track to stardom. Yamal was a starter for Euro champions Spain this summer, and he’s only going to improve from here. Yamal contributed 5 goals and 5 assists as a 16-year-old playing in arguably the 2nd-best league in the world last season.

Barcelona have also fortified the squad with shrewd signings over the past couple of years, including Robert Lewandowski, Raphinha, and Ilkay Gundogan. Lewa has bagged a total of 42 goals with 16 assists in La Liga in the 2 years since coming to Spain, and it looks like the 35-year-old won’t be slowing down any time soon. Barca have also been linked to a move for Athletic Bilbao’s Nico Williams this summer, though no deal has been agreed upon as of yet. Williams, like Yamal, was instrumental in Spain’s Euro 2024 triumph.

While Madrid are obviously the better side, injuries are generally the great equalizer. They’re also unpredictable. If Madrid endure a few unexpected injury woes, Barcelona have enough talent to give the Madridistas a sweet atop the table. Barca’s +350 La Liga title odds are, at the very least, tantalizing.

Atletico Madrid: +1000

Atletico Madrid, traditionally known for their solid defense and tactical discipline under manager Diego Simeone, are listed at +1000 to win La Liga. Their chances of winning the title hinge on their ability to maintain defensive solidity while improving their goal-scoring capabilities. Players like João Félix and Antoine Griezmann will need to deliver consistently. Neither player fared all that well at Euro 2024, but Atleti are banking on both players returning to form in the league.

Madrid’s other club finished a disappointing 4th in the league standings a season ago. That was the first time Atleti failed to crack the top 3 since the 2011-12 season. As a result, they’re in the midst of an active summer. Atletico have reportedly secured the signatures of Manchester City’s Julian Alvarez, Chelsea’s Conor Gallagher, Real Sociedad’s Robin Le Normand, and Villarreal’s Alexander Sorloth. That’s more than €200 million in spending, which is rare for a club with a history of frugal spending on the transfer market. Atleti also sold striker Alvaro Morata to AC Milan after the Spanish captain contributed 16 goals in the league last term. Sorloth found the back of the net 23 times, by comparison.

Will it work? Obviously, time will tell. Simeone has a long history of getting the very most out of his team, even if his roster isn’t as laden with on-paper talent as Real Madrid’s or Barcelona’s. Atleti have qualified for the Champions League in each of the last 11 seasons, so the club is certainly rich enough to afford to splash some cash on new players.

If you want a long-shot with a realistic title-winning upside, look no further than Atleti at +1000.

Girona: +2500

Girona, with odds of +2500, is considered a dark horse this season. Girona was the talk of Spain for much of last season when the side essentially came out of nowhere to finish 3rd in the table and above Atleti. It was just Girona’s 4th-ever season in the Spanish top flight. Before last year, they’d never finished higher than 10th.

To say the rise was unexpected would be quite an understatement. Michel had Girona playing a fun, high-flying style that caught most of their opponents completely off guard.

Unfortunately, small clubs that vastly exceed expectations are typically raided by bigger-money foes in the following offseason. That was the case with Girona, who have lost Artem Dovbyk, Aleix Garcia, and Pau Victor since the end of last term. Savio, Yan Couto, and Eric Garcia will play with other clubs on loan, as well. That’s 5 key contributors from last season who won’t be in the mix for Michel this time around.

In addition to the departures, Girona will also have to contend with a more condensed schedule that features Champions League fixtures. While they were a remarkable success story in 2023-24, it’s impossible to expect them to back it up with a comparable showing this time around. I’m expecting Girona to fall out of the Champions League places by season’s end.

Real Betis: +4000

Real Betis, priced at +4000, has shown glimpses of potential in recent seasons. With a mix of experienced campaigners and emerging talents, they have the capacity to challenge for European spots. Nabil Fekir and Isco will be instrumental in their pursuit of success. Betis have secured European competition spots in each of the last 4 years, though last seasn’s 7th-place finish in La Liga was their worst since 2019-20.

Veteran manager Manuel Pellegrini is still patrolling the touchline, while Isco will look to build off of what was an impressive first season with Los Verdiblancos. Ayoze Perez fared well enough with Betis last year to earn a place with Spain’s Euro 2024 squad, though the defense could be a weak spot.

Betis have plenty of experience in the side, though this does look like one of the older sides expected to fight for a spot near the top of the table. 33-year-old striker Cedric Bakambu appears likely to begin the season as the first-choice striker, which may not cut it at this level.

There’s no real hope for this side to compete for a title barring a surprise of epic proportions.

Long Shots and Notable Mentions

• Real Sociedad (+2000): Fell from 4th to 6th last season, and they’re likely to lose Robin Le Normand, Mike Merino, and Martin Zubimendi this summer.
• Athletic Bilbao (+2500): Won Copa del Rey last season, but the potential departure of Nico Williams would put a dent in Bilbao’s attack.
• Valencia (+10000): Struggling with consistency, a mid-table finish is more realistic.
• Villarreal (+6500): Capable of pushing for European spots but lacking the depth for a title challenge.
• Sevilla (+10000): Similar to Villarreal, they have the quality but may fall short of a sustained title challenge.
• Celta Vigo (+20000), Valladolid (+100000), Osasuna (+100000), Las Palmas (+100000), Leganes (+100000): These teams are expected to focus on avoiding relegation and consolidating their positions in the league.

Who Will Win La Liga in 2024-25?

While Real Madrid are justifiable La Liga favorites at -250, you’re not getting much upside if you bet on those odds. You’d have to plop down $250 just to win $100 back, which isn’t worth the risk or the lackluster potential ROI.

If you want to bet on the La Liga odds, you’re better off placing a cheaper flier on either Barcelona (+350) or Atletico Madrid (+1000). I think there’s a real chance Atleti are being undervalued by oddsmakers, especially considering how active they’ve been on the transfer market. I trust Simeone to get the most out of the players at his disposal, and I don’t think anybody would be shocked to see them giving their intracity rivals a real run as a result.

Shoot for the moon with Atleti at +1000.

Best Bet: Atletico Madrid (+1000)