2024-25 NFL Defensive Points Allowed Odds and Predictions

Defense wins championships. Don’t believe me? The Kansas City Chiefs didn’t seem primed to win another title last year, but an elite defense kept them in play to do so.

Kansas City was a stout defensive unit all year, ranking second in points allowed with 294. That doesn’t always translate to a championship, but it’s a good place to start.

Sports bettors can consider that when betting on the latest Super Bowl 59 odds, but they can also simply profit from NFL defensive points allowed odds, too. And, on the flip side, NFL bettors can profit from the worst defenses in the league by wager on the NFL prop bet for which team gives up the most points this season.

The latest pricing is up at Bet365, so let’s see which teams are in contention and who is worth betting on in 2024.

2024-25 NFL Fewest Points Allowed Odds

The Baltimore Ravens had the fewest NFL defensive points allowed last season, and the top sports betting sites are pegging them as the favorite to get it done again in 2024.

Typically this is a category that sees some fluctuation, so it wouldn’t be shocking for Baltimore to take a step back, and someone else to rise up.

Before we decide how to bet on this wager, let’s see which NFL defenses have the best odds to give up the least points this year.

Baltimore leads the charge for this wager, and that shouldn’t shock anyone. However, repeating as the top scoring defense is easier said than done.

The Ravens can do it, but you may want to test your luck with another franchise.

Four teams in all have +650 odds or better in this market, while an additional five are priced at +1600 or better. Truth be told, even as the prices get out of control, there is still a lot of viable value to fall in love with.

I think there is merit in building a case for some sleeper picks to finish with the least NFL defensive points allowed, but the top contenders are priced as they are for a reason.

So, which defense can we trust? Let’s look at the top favorite and their biggest threats as I work my way to my favorite pick.

Why Are the Baltimore Ravens Favored to Allow the Fewest Points?

It’s easy to see why the Baltimore Ravens are the betting favorite to allow the least NFL points in 2024. They were the top scoring defense a season ago, and they’re consistently in the conversion to take the pole position.

The Ravens didn’t lead the league in defensive scoring the year prior, but they certainly were close. Baltimore finished third in points per game allowed (18.8), and two years before that they were the most suffocating unit on defense again.

Head coach John Harbaugh has consistently stingy defenses, while the Ravens have plenty of defensive talent. In addition, they run a ball control offense that helps out their defense.

Their philosophy only gets stronger going into this season, as the team invested in a running game upgrade via Derrick Henry.

On the defensive side of the ball, Baltimore brought in veteran safety Eddie Jackson and drafted promising defensive back Nate Wiggins out of Clemson.

While Baltimore may not always necessarily have the best overall defense, it’s usually among the league’s top units and their system as a whole allows them to excel.

The Ravens are a deserving favorite to lead the way in NFL defensive points allowed in 2024, and their +600 odds are pretty solid, all things considered.

Top Contenders to Allow the Fewest NFL Points This Year

Baltimore has been a mainstay atop the defensive ranks, so they’re absolutely in play for this betting market. However, they weren’t the top dog in 2022, and the year before that they weren’t remotely close.

The NFL fluctuates quite a bit, so even though the Ravens should remain a strong defensive squad, it might pay to look for suitable alternatives.

I’ve got three in mind that pass the eye test.

Cleveland Browns +650

There are several teams with similar NFL betting odds to the Ravens in this market, which tells us it’s a fairly wide open race.

The Cleveland Browns are one team we should take seriously, especially since it might be unfair to fully judge them on what we saw last year. Not having a steady situation under center couldn’t have helped them on defense, after all.

Still, this was the 13th best NFL defense in points allowed. Cleveland was especially nasty up front, as Myles Garrett led an aggressive unit that ranked 6th in sack percentage and 11th in sacks per game.

Garrett and co. are only talking about ways to get better, too.

Cleveland generated a consistently problematic pass rush, but they were also stout against the run. They ended the year ranked 10th in rushing yards allowed per game with 103.8.

Everything put together keeps the Browns in play here. Due to their less than reliable history, I do prefer the price to be a bit better. However, any contender priced at +650 is going to offer reasonable value.

New York Jets +650

I like the Browns, but the New York Jets might be my favorite contender. They are up there in terms of sheer price, but the impact head coach Robert Saleh has had on this franchise is clear.

Yes, the Jets have struggled to figure things out offensively. However, that has everything to do with Zach Wilson being a bust, and Aaron Rodgers succumbing to a torn Achilles last year.

The hope is that his return to an elite level will help this defense immensely.

New York flashed greatness on defense over the past two years, as their defensive talent and performance was one of the only reasons they were even in a majority of their games.

On the year, Gang Green only ranked 12th in points allowed, but their offensive ineptitude played a huge role in poorer than expected stats.

New York ranked 9th in opponent points per play and first in sack percentage, two solid indicators that they were a more efficient unit than the raw numbers would suggest.

The Jets are going to be live for this bet no matter what. With Aaron Rodgers likely elevating a dormant offense, though, the sky might be the limit for this group.

Kansas City Chiefs +650

While the Jets are my favorite contender to allow the fewest NFL points on defense, I can’t wrap this section up without profiling the Kansas City Chiefs.

This is the defending Super Bowl champion I’m talking about, with their defense being a huge reason why. 

Not only did the Chiefs end the regular season with the second fewest NFL defensive points allowed, but they also held a very good San Francisco 49ers offense in check when it mattered most.

KC is loaded with defensive talent at every level, so improving even further is not out of the question. Their defense is also coached by the legendary Steve Spagnuolo, who is notorious for generating pressure and curating elite defensive units.

Naturally, the Chiefs ranked third in sack percentage and third in sacks per game in 2023. They weren’t nearly as dominant against the run, but ranking fifth in total yards allowed per game illustrates how nasty their front line and secondary were in unison.

It’s always difficult to confide in a defending champion, of course. KC is gunning for the unlikely three-peat, and as time goes on, it’s more likely for the wheels to come off than for the car to stay ahead of the pack.

Best Value Bet to Allow the Least Points in the NFL

This is a pretty good betting market to consider one of two things; betting on a defense that wasn’t in contention a year ago, and/or choosing a team that offers solid value.

The top contenders to allow the fewest NFL points still look like the best options, but I can’t completely ignore teams like the Green Bay Packers (+5000) and Las Vegas Raiders (+5000).

Green Bay specifically is very appealing, as they already have a roster jam-packed with first round talent. To this point, they simply have lacked anything close to respectable coaching, but the hiring of a new defensive coordinator could rectify that.

The Packers have prioritized boosting their turnover numbers in training camp, and if everything else clicks, this could easily end up being a top tier defense immediately.

Las Vegas might already be there, of course.

Maxx Crosby anchors a mean defensive unit that had some insane performances last year en route to finishing 9th in points allowed. The Raiders were top-15 in total yards allowed per game and 10th in sack percentage, too.

Of course, a more reasonable bet might be the Dallas Cowboys.

Dallas offers very nice value at +1100, and they have a lot to get excited about. Not only do they get stud defensive back Trevon Diggs on the field again, but the team also brought in Mike Zimmer to coach the defense.

Former defensive coordinator Dan Quinn took over the show with the rival Washington Commanders, but the transition to Zimmer is far from a drop off. In fact, one could argue it’s a mild upgrade.

Zimmer’s defenses have typically been quite tough, and he inherits a well put together Dallas team that is bursting with talent. The Cowboys already ranked 5th in defensive points allowed last year, and we know they’re tough to handle in terms of pass rush and turnovers.

All of that comes together to make the Cowboys a very compelling value bet. The one hiccup? They don’t have much of a ground game to marry to this defense. If the offense takes a step back or is one-dimensional, leading the league in NFL defensive points allowed might be difficult.

Which NFL Team Will Lead the League in Defensive Scoring?

There are a lot of possible candidates to allow the fewest NFL points this year. It’s increasingly harder to vie for the top spot, of course, as the league has 17 games on the schedule and offenses are as dangerous as ever.

I think you’re in good hands with any of the teams discussed above, but my favorite bet remains the Jets.

New York is in a “Super Bowl or bust” year, and obviously last year was an epic disaster. However, their defense and coaching have continued to show out in the face of adversity.

This tells us that the foundation of New York’s team is quite strong. If the offense can be passable, they’ll be a serious playoff threat. If Aaron Rodgers can rediscover anything close to his MVP form, the Jets as a whole could be the best team in the league.

Of course, the biggest driving force behind bettors liking New York is this defense. It has the ability to dominate at every level, and an improved offense should make life a bit easier.

At +650 odds, you’re getting a similar price to the other top options, even though New York feels like the better bet.

Bet: New York Jets +650

2024-25 Most Points Allowed Odds

While it makes sense to care about the top NFL scoring defenses, you can profit from the bad ones, just as well.

Perhaps you’ll find it easier to just bet on which teams could be winless in 2024, but predicting the worst defense in terms of scoring is also on the table.

Just check out the latest odds on favorites to give up the most NFL points this season.

The Carolina Panthers make sense as the favorite to allow the most points in 2024. For one, they’re my pick to potentially go winless this year, but they also traded away one of their best defensive players.

I’d consider the Washington Commanders as much, as they gave up an insane 518 points in 2023 – good for most in the NFL. However, they brought in defensive guru Dan Quinn to right the ship, so some improvement should be expected.

Arizona should also be better in former defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon’s second season. That doesn’t mean you can’t bet on these teams, but they may not be the locks their most NFL points allowed odds might suggest.

Those are still admittedly the teams to start with, but the first squad that really stands out is the Denver Broncos. The Broncos offer really nice value with their +1000 odds, and they may actually only be getting worse.

Stud safety Justin Simmons left via free agency, while the team has major question marks on offense. This team allowed the sixth most points in the NFL in 2023, and if their offense can’t improve, it may be too much for their defense to overcome.

Of course, all roads probably still lead back to the Carolina Panthers.

The best recipe for NFL betting markets like this is to target the team with inexperience and a lack of talent. Carolina is bringing in a rookie head coach, their offense still isn’t reliable, and their defense may have gotten worse.

After finishing fourth in points given up, Carolina looks like a terrific bet.

Bet: Carolina Panthers +450

Fewest NFL Points Allowed in League History

It’s always wise to lean on historical data whenever possible. Sometimes a look at the record books can show us where we’re going, too, as well as where we’ve been.

NFL eras are different, to be fair. A lot of the top defenses came from the 1970s, but with more games, better athletes, and improved offenses, it’s tough to compare different decades.

Even so, records are records.

Before you bet on which team will allow the least NFL defensive points, take a look at the best performing defenses in league history.