Week 12 Thursday Night Football Odds: Steelers vs. Browns

In Week 11, the Pittsburgh Steelers flexed their muscles by defeating the Baltimore Ravens in an AFC North grudge match.

The victory put the Steelers firmly into first place in the division and in the driver’s seat to win the AFC North title. It also kept Pittsburgh in the hunt for the AFC’s #1 seed after the Kansas City Chiefs lost to the Buffalo Bills last weekend.

The Cleveland Browns dropped their second game in a row after getting crushed in New Orleans. The Saints won 35-14 and further kicked the Cleveland franchise while they’re down.

Now, the Browns have to return home and play on a short week against one of their most hated rivals in the Steelers. Thursday’s game marks the 146^th time that these two teams have played against each other. Currently, the Steelers hold a commanding lead with an 81-63-1 series record.

With that said, the Cleveland Browns have won their last two games at home versus the Steelers. However, those Cleveland football teams were much better than what we’re seeing this season.

Can the Browns dig deep within themselves to contend on Thursday night or will the Steelers steamroll the Browns and win their sixth game in a row?

Let’s dive deeper into the latest NFL odds, courtesy of the top sports betting sites, and make our Week 12 NFL Predictions for the Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cleveland Browns.

What Channel Is Thursday Night Football On?

• Thursday Night Football Channel: Amazon Prime Video
• Thursday Night Football Time: 8:15 p.m. EST
• Thursday Night Football Announcers: Al Michaels and Kirk Herbstreit 

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Thursday Night Football Betting 

Keep an eye on the latest NFL odds for TNF and monitor how the lines change throughout the week.

When the odds were first released, the Steelers were a +120 underdog and the Browns were a -142 betting favorite. Those odds began to change once we got into October as it was clear that the Browns weren’t as good as many pundits thought in the preseason.

Additionally, by late-October, Pittsburgh made their QB change and the team looked far more balanced on offense. Combine that newfound success with a strong defense and the Steelers became a large betting favorite before the calendars turned to November.

Over that span, the Steelers’ odds were as high as -238 and the Browns were as big as +195 odds. Currently, the Steelers are at a range of -195 to -205 and the Browns are +165 to +175.

The spread opened with the Browns being favored by three points. Of course, that number moved just like the moneylines did. The Steelers are now favored by 3.5 points, but that line went as high as -5.5 points. With that said, I wouldn’t be surprised if we see this number grow by Thursday night.

The Over/Under opened at 43.5 points but has slowly come down to the current Total of 36 points.

Last week, we correctly called the Eagles to win the game outright, but the Commanders let us down by not covering the 3.5 points or helping with the Total of 49 points.

Thursday Night Football Odds

The following Thursday Night Football odds are courtesy of ScoresandStats:

As mentioned above, these two longtime rivals have played each other 145 times including three times in the Playoffs. The Pittsburgh Steelers hold a large lead in this rivalry with an 81-63-1 record. Pittsburgh has also gone 4-2 in the last six head-to-head meetings.

The Cleveland Browns hold a 41-29-1 all-time record in home games against the Steelers and have gone 4-1 in the last five years. They won last year’s home game over the Steelers by the score of 13-10. Pittsburgh last won in Cleveland three years ago by the score of 15-10.

These two teams will play again in Week 14, which is just two weeks away. That game will be in Pittsburgh where the Steelers are 52-22 all-time and have gone 19-1 in their last 20 home games against the Browns. Pittsburgh has won three in a row at home versus Cleveland.

Thursday Night Football Betting Trends

Check out the following Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cleveland Browns betting trends:

Steelers vs. Browns Betting Trends

• Steelers are 6-4 SU in last 10 meetings
• Steelers are 7-3 ATS in last 10 matchups
• Over/Under is 5-5 in last 10 contests
• Steelers are 13-5-1 SU in last 19 games
• Browns are 4-1 SU in last five home contests

Pittsburgh Steelers Betting Trends

• 5-0 SU in last five games
• 8-1 SU in last nine AFC North games
• 4-1 ATS in last five Road games
• 5-1 ATS in last six AFC games
• Over is 4-1 in last five games
• Under is 4-2 in last six November games

Cleveland Browns Betting Trends

• 1-7 SU in last eight games
• 6-0 SU in last six Thursday games
• 3-9 ATS in last 12 games
• 1-4 ATS in last five Home games
• 4-8 ATS in last 12 November games
• Under is 4-1 in last five AFC games
• Over is 10-4 in last 14 Week 12 games

Thursday Night Football Predictions

Let’s take a closer look at some of the key matchups for this game as we make our Thursday Night Football NFL picks. NFL stats are courtesy of TeamRankings and Pro Football Reference.

Steelers Offense vs. Browns Defense

Last year, the Cleveland Browns had a strong defense. Unfortunately, the leftovers from that unit have passed their expiration date and have become spoiled because this defensive unit is in the bottom third of the league. In fact, this unit has become the exact opposite of what they were last year.

Currently, the Browns allow 24.8 ppg (24^th), 3.0 TDs per game (25^th), allow a 63.33% red zone TD conversion (24^th), 70% fourth down conversion (26^th), and 131.7 rushing yards per game (24^th).

However, these numbers have been skewed a bit because this team has given up 86 points in the last three games. In fact, they were blown out the last two games by the combined score of 62 to 24.

The Steelers offense hasn’t been elite, but they’ve been winning and things have definitely turned around since Russell Wilson became the starting QB a few weeks ago.

Pittsburgh has won four consecutive games with Wilson at QB. They blew out the Jets and Giants then beat the Commanders and Ravens over that stretch.

The Steelers feature a Top 10 rushing offense that averages 136.7 yards per game on 34.3 rushes per game. Their passing attack has improved significantly with Wilson at the helm and that should bode well this weekend as the Browns do give up plenty of passing yards.

Speaking of giving up, it feels like the Browns have already given up on the season. They might show some heart in this rivalry game, but I doubt it will last for all four quarters. Once the Steelers are able to get ahead by a touchdown or more, Cleveland will pack it in defensively.

The Steelers have the clear advantage in this matchup and I expect them to put up a solid outing like they have the last five weeks.

Browns Offense vs. Steelers Defense

Once again, the Steelers also have the advantage with their defense versus the Browns offense. In fact, this is where the game will be won.

The Steelers have an elite defense that will shut down Cleveland’s inconsistent offense on Thursday night. Pittsburgh is 2^nd in points allowed at 16.2 ppg. They’re also 8^th in yards allowed at 305.3 yards per game, third fewest TDs allowed at 1.7 TD per game, and 4^th against the rush at 90.8 yards per game.

The Browns have the 4^th worst rushing attack in the league at 88.5 ypg and this includes the return of Nick Chubb. Jameis Winston has brought some juice to the offense but it’s not enough against this Pittsburgh defense.

Cleveland allows the second most sacks per game, which is music to the ears of TJ Watt and his pass rushing cohorts. The Browns also have an abysmal passing average of 5.9 yards per pass, which means they dink and dunk down the field. They’re not capable of consistently throwing longer passes due to a poor offensive line and receivers not getting enough separation.

Sure, lightning could strike and the Browns could pull a rabbit out of the proverbial hat to shock the Steelers. However, I highly doubt that will happen. The black and yellow will sweep over this Browns offense like a tidal wave.

Who Wins TNF: Steelers or Browns?

The Steelers are 4-1 on the road this season with their only loss coming to the Colts. However, that was when Justin Fields was still the QB. I think this version of the Steelers would win that game nine times out of 10.

The Browns are 1-4 in home games this season with that victory coming against the Ravens just three games ago. Baltimore beat themselves that week with numerous self-inflicted mistakes. Yet, Pittsburgh must be aware that they can’t follow Baltimore’s script. They need to take care of the ball and be disciplined.

Take the Steelers to win this game. And, without any hesitation. They’re far better than the Browns and have owned Cleveland in this rivalry. Pittsburgh is 8-1 in their last nine divisional matchups. Additionally, they’re 13-5-1 in their last 19 games versus the Browns. Cleveland is 1-7 in their last eight overall games.

I also like Pittsburgh to easily cover the spread. In fact, I would take this spread all the way up to 6.5 points. The Steelers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 meetings versus the Browns. Additionally, they’re 4-1 ATS in their last five road games and 5-1 ATS in their last six AFC contests.

Cleveland has been a dud against the spread over the past season. They’re currently 3-9 ATS in their last 12 overall games, 1-4 ATS in their last five games at home, and 4-8 ATS in their last 12 November contests. In other words, I don’t see the Browns covering a spread up to a touchdown.

As for the Total, I would avoid it this week. Pittsburgh could give up garbage points after getting out to a big lead, which would put it over 36 points. They could also hold the Browns to single digits.

I’m taking the Steelers to win 26 to 10 on Thursday Night Football.

Bet: Pittsburgh Steelers (-200), Steelers -3.5 (-110)

Thursday Night Football Prop Bets

Check out our picks for the best Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cleveland Browns Game and Player Prop bets:

Russell Wilson Passing Yards

• Over 177.5 yards (-110)
• Under 177.5 yards (-110)

I must admit that I was pleasantly surprised at the Over/Under for this prop bet. It’s my favorite prop bet along with the Chris Boswell scoring player prop.

I think the handicappers are giving the Browns too much credit here. For starters, this team allows 214.5 passing yards per game, which is 37 yards more than this Wilson player prop.

Second, Wilson has thrown for 942 yards in four games, which breaks down to 235.5 passing yards per game. In all four games, Wilson has gone over 178 passing yards. His lowest total was 195 yards against the Commanders who have a far better pass defense than the Browns do.

Last week, Wilson put up 205 yards on the Ravens as the ground game did a lot of the work. In his first two games, he averaged 271 yards per game versus the Jets and Giants.

I see Wilson surpassing 200 passing yards against the Browns. Pittsburgh will pull away from Cleveland through the passing game and cement the victory with their powerful rushing attack.

Bet: Over 177.5 passing yards (-110)

Jaylen Warren Receiving Yards

• Over 13.5 yards (-110)
• Under 13.5 yards (-110)

Jaylen Warren has been overlooked this season due to a lack of usage at times and his injuries. Nevertheless, he’s healthy again and is looking like he did last year when he challenged Harris for the starting spot.

In eight games, Warren has 18 receptions for 123 yards, which breaks down to 15.4 receiving yards per game. Since Wilson has taken over, Warren has 13 or more receiving yards in all four games. In fact, he’s had 13 or more receiving yards in six of the eight games that he’s played.

In his last two contests, Warren has averaged 28 receiving yards. I see Warren getting at least 14 receiving yards this week versus the Browns on TNF.

Bet: Over 13.5 yards (-110)

Jaylen Warren Rushing Yards

• Over 36.5 yards (-110)
• Under 36.5 yards (-110)

In our second of three Warren player prop bets, I also like Warren to go over 36.5 rushing yards this week. Despite Cleveland’s solid numbers against the run, they were just gashed by the Saints for over 200 rushing yards. This shows me that this team has quite on the season at least defensively.

Warren has an average of 32.3 rushing yards per game for the season. However, he’s tallied 41 or more rushing yards in four consecutive games, which corresponds with Wilson taking over at quarterback.

I like for this trend to continue as Warren surpasses the 40-yard mark for a fifth consecutive game.

Bet: Over 36.5 yards (-110)

Jaylen Warren Total Yards

• Over 54.5 yards (-110)
• Under 54.5 yards (-110)

Yes, there’s a theme for this game. And, that theme is for Warren to have a solid outing. Since I picked him to go over 13.5 receiving yards and 36.5 rushing yards, then that naturally means I like for him to go over 54.5 total yards.

Warren has eclipsed that total in four consecutive games. In fact, he’s gone for 59 or more total yards in each game over that span. I like for that streak to hit five games as Warren eclipses 60 total yards versus the Browns on Thursday Night Football.

Bet: Over 54.5 yards (-110)

Najee Harris Rushing Yards

• Over 62.5 yards (-110)
• Under 62.5 yards (-110)

Not only do I like for Warren to have a solid game, I also like for his running mate Najee Harris to do so as well. For the season. Harris is averaging 70.8 rushing yards per game over 10 contests. Over his last five games, Harris has gone over 62 yards in four of them. In fact, he’s gone over 100 rushing yards in three of those games.

I think we see Harris pick up most of his yards in the second half as the Steelers wear down this Browns defense and Najee piles up the yardage. I feel more confident in Warren than Harris, but I think they both will hit their Overs.

Bet: Over 62.5 yards (-110)

Chris Boswell Points

• Over 6.5 points (-110)
• Under 6.5 points (-110)

Over the last few weeks, we’ve been killing it on Kickers hitting their Overs on points scored prop bets. And, I believe we will do it again this week.

In 10 games, Boswell has 107 total points which is an average of 10.7 points per game. Last week, Boswell kicked six field goals and led the Steelers in a victory over the Ravens. That’s the second time this year that Boswell has kicked six field goals.

Over the last five weeks, Boswell has scored 13 or more points in four of those games. I fully expect Boswell to score at least seven points in this matchup. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if Boswell eclipsed the 10-point mark for a fifth time in the last six games.

And, yes, for those wondering, I have Boswell as my kicker in fantasy football and I easily won last week because of his 24 fantasy points. And, yes, I am laughing out loud as I type this.

Bet: Over 6.5 points (-110)

Best Bets For Thursday Night Football

The Best Bets for Thursday Night Football are as follows:

• Pittsburgh Steelers -200
• Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 points (-110)
• Chris Boswell over 6.5 points (-110)
• Russell Wilson over 177.5 passing yards (-110)

I’m all in on the Steelers winning this TNF game. They’re 4-1 on the road and the Browns are 1-4 at home. Furthermore, the Steelers have won 13 of their last 19 meetings versus the Browns, who have gone 1-7 in their last eight games. Additionally, Pittsburgh has won eight of their last nine divisional games.

This also means that I’m jumping on the spread and actually think the Steelers are a lock to cover at least a touchdown. Pittsburgh is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games versus Cleveland. They’ve gone 4-1 ATS in their last five away games and 5-1 ATS in their last six conference matchups. The Browns are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games and 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.

If you scroll up a little bit, you will see why I love Boswell this week. Not only is it due to the fact that he’s my fantasy football kicker, but it’s also because he’s averaging 10.7 points per game. He’s scored six or more points in eight of his 10 games. He’s gone over 10 points in half of the games this year including four of his last five outings.

Lastly, as much as I like the Boswell prop bet, I also like for Russell Wilson to go over 177.5 passing yards. In four starts, Wilson is averaging 235.5 passing yards per game. He’s gone for 195 yards or more in all four of those matchups. I see a 200-yard outing in Cleveland on Thursday night.

Thursday Night Football Schedule

Check out the complete Thursday Night Football schedule along with our predictions for each week: