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There may be a nice opportunity this early in the year to take advantage of college game total bets, and one of the reasons is that the general public has a tendency to notice the personnel changes and / or improvements on offense a lot more than the ones on defense.
Best Bookies for College Football
That, and matchups of styles, are two of the factors that go into our look at totals on some of Saturday’s games.
College Football Game Totals Best Bets for Week 1
Army Cadets at Georgia State Panthers Preview
Time: Saturday, September 4th at Noon ET
Totals Odds: Over 49.5 points -110 / Under 49.5 points -110
The Play: UNDER 49.5
The option offense is nothing new for Georgia State to see; two seasons ago they beat Army by a touchdown, and nothing’s really changed about the Army’s system since. While Jeff Monken is one of the more solid coaches in the country, and his machine is generally well-oiled they were alternating among several quarterbacks in fall practice, which means they hadn’t really settled upon one that could take command of the offense.
There is some kind of potential advantage for a triple option like Army’s when the opposing team only has a week to prepare. But clearly that is not the case here. Also don’t lose sight of the fact that GSU faces Georgia Southern on a yearly basis, so there are no big shockers here.
Army held six of its 12 foes to single digits last season, holding them to 3.8 yards a carry, so with eight starters coming back on the stop unit, they’ll be more than capable. And take note that we’re not the only ones thinking “under,” as the number here opened at 53 and has been bet down.
Penn State Nittany Lions at Wisconsin Badgers Preview
Time: Saturday, September 4th at Noon ET
Totals Odds: Over 50 points -110 / Under 50 points -110
The Play: UNDER 50
During Penn State’s strange 2020 season, in which the Nittany Lions lost the first five and then won four in a row, they scored in the 30s only twice. Now they are going through the process of learning their third different offensive scheme in three seasons with the arrival of Mike Yurcich, who’s had recent experience at Texas, Ohio State and Oklahoma State.
Not that they’re going to be stumbling around; it’s just that we would not be surprised if they went run-heavy early with a deep running back pool. In only one out of the last six seasons has Wisconsin allowed its opposition to rush for more than three and a half yards per carry. Offensively, there are a lot of people back (nine, to be exact) and everyone seems to be expecting great things from quarterback Graham Mertz, but the fact is, Mertz does not carry a lot of momentum from the back end of last season, when his ratio of TD passes to INT’s in the last four games was one to five.
I wouldn’t be shocked if this one was played a little close to the vest.
UTSA Roadrunners at Illinois Fighting Illini Preview
Time: Saturday, September 4th at 7:30 PM ET
Totals Odds: Over 50 points -110 / Under 50 points -110
The Play: UNDER 50
If there is anything Bret Bielema demonstrated in his first game as head coach at Illinois, it’s that he is perfectly willing to do the ground-and-pound and play for ball control. Illinois took advantage of some Nebraska mistakes and got a pretty good “committee” effort out of its running backs, particularly Mike Epstein, and discovered that former QB Isaiah Williams can be a dangerous young man on the jet sweeps.
Quarterback Brandon Peters got injured early (and isn’t likely to play), so Artur Sitkowski came in and completed 13 of 15, with one long shot but most possession passes. They aren’t necessarily explosive, but ball control would seem the way they’d want to go.
For UTSA (please don’t call them Texas-San Antonio, as they’ll get angry), running the ball would seem a natural thing to do, since they have one of the nation’s top weapons in that capacity in Sincere McCormick, who had 1467 net yards and made second-team All-America. Bielema’s transfers are working out pretty well for the stop unit, and the Roadrunners are solid on that side of the ball, never really allowing things to get too far out of hand with any opponent.
BYU Cougars at Arizona Wildcats Preview
Time: Saturday, September 4th at 10:30 PM ET
Totals Odds: Over 54 points -110 / Under 54 points -110
The Play: UNDER 54
If there is anything that can be guaranteed about this college football weekend (Week 1, as opposed to Week Zero?), it’s that those remaining Arizona defenders who have some pride left will have a chip on their shoulders about last year’s season-closing 70-7 loss to hated rival Arizona State.
And one of those people who can help them channel that anger is Don Brown, who takes over as new D-coordinator on new head coach Jedd Fisch’s staff. Brown, who was on Jim Harbaugh’s staff at Michigan prior to this, is a no-nonsense guy who loves to put pressure on the quarterback, and in the last ten years he’s sent more than 30 defenders into the NFL.
To a certain degree, this may be an opportune time to face BYU, which brings in Jaren Hall to replace Zac Wilson (#2 overall pick to the Jets) at QB, and went through an entire schedule last season without facing a Power 5 conference team. By the way, Arizona (17.4 ppg in 2020) has a long way to go on offense.
Read our CFB week 1 ATS picks and CFB week 1 moneyline underdog picks.
