2024 Vuelta a Espana Odds, Predictions, Maillot Rojo Winner

On Saturday, August 17, the third and final Grand Tour of the year gets underway as the 2024 Vuelta a Espana makes its grand depart from Lisbon, Portugal. Riders will embark on a 21-stage journey across Spain before concluding their 3,265 km trek in Madrid on Sunday, September 8. 

All 18 UCI WorldTeams will participate in this race. Four UCI ProTeams were also added to bring the field to a total of 22 teams. Among these squads are some of the biggest names in the sport today. However, unlike the Giro d’Italia and the Tour de France, this year’s Vuelta a Espana will be much more unpredictable.

At the Giro and Tour, you had Tadej Pogacar aiming to win both. Spoiler alert, for those who didn’t watch those races, Pogacar dominated them. He, nor Jonas Vingegaard, will be racing in the Vuelta. Additionally, the Paris Olympics two-time gold medal winning Remco Evenepoel won’t be in this race. And, there’s a 50/50 chance that Primoz Roglic will not take the starting line in Lisbon. As of this writing, he’s uncertain due to the injuries sustained in a Tour de France crash. 

With that said, the defending champion Sepp Kuss is set to lead Visma-Lease a Bike after missing the Tour de France due to covid. Can he win the maillot rojo for a second straight year?

Let’s take a deeper dive into this year’s Vuelta a Espana field, examine the pre-race favorites, peruse the cycling odds, and make our 2024 Vuelta a Espana predictions. 

Recent Vuelta a Espana Red Jersey Winners

• 2023 Sepp Kuss
• 2022 Remco Evenepoel
• 2021 Primoz Roglic
• 2020 Primoz Roglic
• 2019 Primoz Roglic
• 2018 Simon Yates
• 2017 Chris Froome
• 2016 Nairo Quintana
• 2015 Fabio Aru
• 2014 Alberto Contador

The maillot rojo (red jersey), signifies the rider that’s in the overall lead of the Vuelta. However, it wasn’t until 2010, that the jersey was changed to a red color. Prior to that, the leader’s jersey was yellow from 1955 to 1998. From this point until 2010, the color was a gold hue. In the early years of the Vuelta, the race leader’s jersey was white, orange, and white with a horizontal red stripe. 

Robeto Heras holds the record for the most Vuelta wins with four. Delio Rodrguez holds the all-time mark with 38 stage wins. If Primoz Roglic enters this race, and wins, he can tie Heras for the most Vuelta victories. Currently, Roglic is tied with Tony Rominger and Alberto Contador with three victories. 

2024 Vuelta a Espana Odds

2024 Vuelta a Espana Favorites

The following cyclists are considered the pre-race favorites according to the top sports betting sites:

Primoz Roglic (+225)

As mentioned at the top of this article, Primoz Roglic’s status for the Vuelta is unknown with just a few days before the start of the race. He’s recovering from a bad crash in the Tour de France, which forced him to abandon the race after Stage 12. By this point of the Tour, Roglic had showed clear signs of being injured and in poor shape. I’ve never seen a GC rider have more bad luck at the TDF than Roglic. 

With that said, for all of his TDF bad luck, Roglic has had great success at the Vuelta. He’s won the Vuelta on three occasions: 2019, 2020 and 2021. Roglic did crash out of the 2022 race before returning to finish third last year. Ironically, he finished behind his teammates: Kuss and Vingegaard. It also marked the end of Roglic’s tenure with Visma as he left for Red Bull Bora Hansgrohe. 

Prior to entering the Tour, Roglic looked in great form after wining the Criterium du Dauphine. If he’s healthy, Roglic is the man to beat. If he shows up to the Vuelta in less than 100% condition, then he’s going to have a very difficult time. Monitor his status in the days leading up to the start of this race. 

Sepp Kuss (+450)

As mentioned, Sepp Kuss surprised the field, the sport, his team and all of his fans by winning the Vuelta a Espana last year. It was a very dramatic victory as well. There were a few points in the final stages where it looked like both Roglic and Vingegaard were going to put the hammer down to win the Vuelta. 

But common sense prevailed and they ended up riding for Kuss, who had supported both GC riders in numerous Grand Tours over the years. 

Kuss was sorely missed in the 2024 Tour de France. Visma, more specifically Vingegaard, didn’t have the top lieutenant for the mountain stages. That resulted in Pogacar’s UAE team smashing the peloton. 

On the year, Kuss has flashed his form. He won the mountains classification in the Tour of Basque Country. He was poised for a big showing in the Tour, but covid derailed those plans. 

However, Kuss demonstrated that he’s on great form heading into the Vuelta after a Vuelta a Burgos victory this past weekend. The reigning Vuelta champ is chomping at the bit to add another title to his mantle. With nine summit finishes and 13 medium to hard mountain stages, Kuss has a solid chance at finishing on the podium again. 

Adam Yates (+450)

Speaking of smashing the Tour de France peloton, Adam Yates was one of Pogacar’s key domestiques who helped to crush the rest of the field. Yates finished 6^th in the standings after doing a great amount of work in the mountains for Pogacar. 

Prior to the TDF, Yates won the Tour de Suisse. He also won the Tour of Oman earlier in the year. Yates has shown great form this season and I expect the co-leader of UAE to be a real contender in this race. The only question is who will have the best legs between Yates and his teammate Joao Almeida. 

This will be Yates’ 5^th appearance in the Vuelta. He last rode the Grand Tour in 2021 and finished 4^th. It was his best result for the Tour of Spain. 

Enric Mas (+500)

No team has more pressure on them to perform than Movistar. The Spanish team always wants to perform at a high level in the Vuelta. Unfortunately, that’s not always the case. 

Enric Mas will most likely be the team leader for Movistar. However, there’s no guarantee that everyone will support him. Without getting into recent team struggles over the last few years, Movistar needs a strong showing in this Grand Tour. They’ve been sorely outperformed by most of the major Grand Tour teams this year. 

Mas has zero wins on the season, but does have two Top 5 stage finishes in the Tour de France. Yet, he only finished 19^th overall in the GC standings. Mas is a solid rider, but should be a domestique and not a captain. 

This will be Mas’ 7^th appearance in the Vuelta. He’s finished runner-up on three occasions: 2018, 2021, 2022. Last year, Mas was 6^th. I can see a Top 5 result especially if Roglic isn’t there. 

Joao Almeida (+550)

Joao Almeida is from Portugal and will be greatly cheered for when the peloton starts in his native country for the first three stages. 

Almeida is coming off a strong showing at the Tour de France, where he finished 4^th overall. He, Yates and Pogacar claimed three of the Top 6 spots. 

Prior to the Tour, Almeida finished second in the Tour de Suisse. He was just behind his teammate Yates in the standings. The 26-year-old had one win in this race, which was the second victory for Almeida this season. His first win came in Paris-Nice. 

UAE’s captain on the road is going to be a fun subplot to watch in the Vuelta. Almeida and Yates are both worthy of this title. The ideal approach is for UAE to let the man with the best form lead the way. That probably won’t be decided until the second week when the climbs get harder. 

This will be Almeida’s third Vuelta appearance. He was 4^th in 2022 and 9^th last year. He’s yet to win a stage in the Vuelta. 

Best Vuelta a Espana Betting Value

The following riders offer betting value based on their current Vuelta odds, the 2024 season, and past Grand Tour experience:

Carlos Rodriguez (+1800)

There were some doubts that Carlos Rodriguez would participate in the Vuelta. As of this writing, he’s expected to race. That’s good news for INEOS, as they now have a legit contender for the podium. Egan Bernal’s days as a true contender are over. He’s not the same rider since his injuries.

I like Rodriguez and think he’s a talented, young rider. But he certainly frustrated me in this year’s Tour de France. I had the 23-year-old winning the White Jersey competition and contending for a podium spot.

Instead, he finished 7^th in the GC standings, which was two spots lower than his 2023 TDF result. He finished second in the white jersey, best young rider, competition behind Remco Evenepoel who was third overall in the GC.

Prior to the tour, Rodriguez was 4^th in the Criterium du Dauphine, won the Tour de Romandie, and 2^nd in Basque Country. If he’s recovered from the Tour de France then Rodriguez is going to be a contender.

With that said, there’s a reason why he’s +1600 and not up there with the favorites. He will have to prove that he’s worthy of the red jersey while on the roads of his native country. If that doesn’t get a rider fired up, then I don’t know what will.

Rodriguez has only competed in one Vuelta for his career. That appearance came in 2022 where he finished 6^th overall and 5^th in the youth competition.

Richard Carapaz (+2200)

It’s rather surprising to see Richard Carapaz (+2200) with odds this high considering he’s one of the best climbers in the sport. And, with so many mountain stages, how can you not think that Carapaz won’t be a factor? 

The Ecuadoran is coming into this Grand Tour very motivated. He was snubbed for the Olympics, despite being the defending gold medal winner in the Tokyo Olympics men’s road race. 

He would win the King of the Mountains competition in the Tour de France despite crashing and overcoming that setback. Carapaz also won a stage in the Tour. That was just one of a handful of wins for Carapaz this year as he also won the Tour Colombia. 

This will be his 6^th Vuelta appearance. His best finish was 2^nd in 2020. He was 13^th last year, but also won the Mountains competition. Carapaz is one of the only men taking the starting line in Lisbon with a Grand Tour win. At +2200 odds, he offers great value for a race that doesn’t have the Big 3 in it, and possibly not even the 4^th with Roglic recovering from injuries. 

Top Vuelta a Espana Longshot

The 20-year-old, Isaac Del Toro (+3300), is my longshot pick to win the Vuelta. Of course, there are riders with larger odds that could also be considered longshots, but they’re not as young as Del Toro and not on the best team like he is. 

Let’s also not overlook the fact that he’s put together a solid season as well. Del Toro was 3^rd in the Tour Down Under, 4^th at Tirreno-Adriatico, 7^th at Basque Country, and 13^th at the Tour de Suisse. He’s showed incredible climbing skills, which will come into play over the next three weeks at the Vuelta. 

In fact, UAE team coach team coach Giacomo Notari even compared Del Toro to the great Pogacar: 

The Mexican cyclist is making his Grand Tour debut at the Vuelta. So, it remains to be seen how he responds to a three-week, grueling race. With that said, he has the legs to climb and could be in a good position alongside teammates Yates and Almeida. 

Lastly, of those three UAE riders, Del Toro is the one that the peloton would let get away just like Kuss did last year, which led to his overall victory. At the very least, Del Toro provides another layer of excitement to this race and to UAE’s team. One could only imagine the drama if Del Toro ends up outperforming his teammates on the road and then both Yates and Almeida have to ride for the rising star. 

2024 Vuelta a Espana Predictions: Who Wins The Maillot Rojo?

As of this writing, Primoz Roglic has yet to declare his entry into the Grand Tour. So, we’re going to skip him for this prediction despite being a huge fan of his. If he was 100% healthy then I would definitely pick him to win. We saw how Vingegaard performed at the Tour de France when he wasn’t 100% healthy. So, even if Roglic does show up, it won’t be at his best.

Without The Big 4 in this race, assuming Roglic isn’t there, the Grand Tour will be wide open to a handful of riders like: Kuss, Mas, Carapaz, Rodriguez, Yates and Almeida. In other words, we are in for a thrilling three-week event.

I’m a huge fan of Sepp Kuss. Unfortunately, just like I predicted in the Tour de France, Visma-Leas a Bike doesn’t have the team to dominate this Vuelta a Espana. Last year, they were clearly the strongest team in the Vuelta. That’s not the case this year. I don’t think Kuss has enough support to win again.

For as consistent as Mas has been in the Vuelta, you would think that he has the chance to win this year without the best GC riders in this event. However, I don’t see it happening. Sure, he could definitely finish on the podium again, but I don’t believe Movistar has the team to contend.

In years past, INEOS was the best team. Sadly, their time at the top is over with. They need to retool this program and commit to building around young stars. I still have hope for Rodriguez to finish on the podium.

The best team in the Vuelta, is the same one from the Tour de France and the Giro, that’s UAE Team Emirates. Sure, those first two Grand Tours also had Pogacar leading the charge. Yet, if you look at what this team did in the Tour de Suisse, without The Big 4 GC riders, they dominated that race.

UAE has the best team for the Vuelta. In fact, it’s not even close. Joining Almeida, Yates and Del Toro are Marc Soler, Pavel Sivakov, Jay Vine and Brandon McNulty. This is a very impressive squad.

Last year, Jumbo Visma swept the Grand Tours with Roglic winning the Giro, Vingegaard winning the Tour de France, and Kuss winning the Vuelta. This year, I see UAE winning all three Grand Tours. Pojacar swept the first two and the Vuelta will come down to co-leaders Yates or Almeida. Let’s not overlook Del Toro or McNulty either, if something happens to the two co-leaders.

In the Tour de Suisse, Yates won the eight-stage race by 22 seconds over Almeida. However, he finished 2^nd to Almeida in the ITT on Stage 8. Guess what, the Vuelta opens and closes with ITT stages. At the Tour de France, Almeida easily beat Yates in both time trials. Almeida was 8^th and 5^th, while Yates was 23^rd and 10th.

With the Vuelta starting in Almeida’s home-country of Portugal, he being six years younger than Yates, and being the better time trialist, I’m giving the edge to Almeida to win the 2024 Vuelta a Espana over Yates. Feel free to wager on both UAE riders and still come out ahead.

As for the rest of the podium, the final two spots will come down to Carapaz, Yates, Rodriguez and Kuss.

Bet: Joao Almeida +600

2024 Vuelta a Espana Route

The 2024 Vuelta a Espana begins in Portugal’s capital of Lisbon, which is just the 5^th time that the Grand Tour has not started in Spain. Over the first three days, the race passes through Portugal before heading to the country that the race is named after. 

On paper, this year’s Vuelta a Espana route looks brutal. The 3,265-kilometer race will feature two Individual Time Trials that open and close the Grand Tour, five hilly stages, five medium-mountain stages, and eight high-mountain stages. In total, there are nine summit finishes with some climbs that take riders into the clouds. 

The following is a breakdown of the 21 stages in this year’s Vuelta:

Stage 1: Lisbon – Oeiras 

• Date: August 17
• Type: Individual Time Trial
• Distance: 12 km 

The Vuelta opens with a fast time trial that could put some of the GC riders on the backfoot to start the Grand Tour. 

Stage 2: Cascais – Ourem

• Date: August 18
• Type: Hilly
• Distance: 194 km

From the time trial to a hilly stage, riders will leave Portugal’s coastal region and tackle two climbs before what should be a bunch sprint at the end. The climbs are very manageable with the toughest being Alto de Batalha at 7.1 km at 3.3% gradient. 

Stage 3: Lousa – Castelo Branco

• Date: August 19
• Type: Hilly
• Distance: 191.2 km

Unlike the prior stage, Monday’s efforts will see more elevation gain. However, there’s only two real climbs that could pose any challenges. Of those two, the Alto de Teixeira is 17.5 km long at 3.2%. Neither climbs should shatter the field. Could be a great battle at the end of the stage with a bunch sprint or a group of Classics’ riders. This is also the last day in Portugal. 

Stage 4: Plasencia – Pico Villuercas

• Date: August 20
• Type: Mountain
• Distance: 170.4 km

This is the first real test for the peloton. As the Vuelta enters into Spain for the first time in the race, riders will face a handful of climbs including to Cat-1s. The end of the stage finishes on the Pico Villuercas which is a 14.6 km climb at 6.2%. However, the last few kilometers see a 12% gradient. This is a day for a breakaway or the top climbers. 

Stage 5: Fuente del Maestre – Seville

• Date: August 21
• Type: Flat
• Distance: 177 km

Although it’s considered a flat stage, this day does have some small changes in elevation for the first 150km. Only the last 25km are flat. With that said, the sprinters will mark this stage and we should see a bunch sprint at the end.  

Stage 6: Jerez de la Frontera – Yunquera

• Date: August 22
• Type: Mountain
• Distance: 185.5 km

Stage 6 looks like a classic breakaway stage as it’s not too hard for the field’s top climbers. However, it will be tough for the sprinters and non-climbers. There are four climbs in this stage with one Cat-1, which is the Puerto del Boyar at 14.7 km long and 5.5% gradient. This climb comes with 100km still to go. The peloton will finish on the Cat-3 Yunquera. 

Stage 7: Archidona – Cordoba

• Date: August 23
• Type: Hilly
• Distance: 180.2 km

From the mountains to the hills leading into Cordoba, there’s really only one climb that can do some damage. Otherwise, the field could be together for a sprint finish. The one climb comes after 154 km of racing. The Alto del 14% is 7.4 km long and 5.6% gradient. It could be a launching point for those looking for a stage win. 

Stage 8: Ubeda – Cazorla

• Date: August 24
• Type: Mountain
• Distance: 158.7 km

In traditional Vuelta fashion, this shorter mountain stage will finish on the Sierra de Cazorla. Although it’s a Cat-3 at 4.8 km in length, the climb is 7.1% gradient with sections as steep as 20%. This could be another breakaway stage, or where the GC contenders make their mark. 

Stage 9: Motril – Granada

• Date: August 25
• Type: Mountain
• Distance: 178 km

The peloton will be happy to see the first rest day on Tuesday, August 26, because Stage 9 is going to be the hardest day of the race so far. The first 100km will see some choppiness before the field faces three Cat-1 climbs. The Alto de Hazallanas will be climbed twice. After the second climb, which is 7.1 km and a 9.5% gradient, the riders will descend into the finish.

Stage 10: Ponteareas – Baiona

• Date: August 27
• Type: Mountain
• Distance: 159.6 km

After the first of two rest days in the Vuelta, the peloton will be treated to another mountain stage. Although not as hard as Stage 10, there’s still four climbs to complete. The toughest climb is the Alto de Bougas which is a Cat-1 with a length of 10km and a 6.0% gradient. It comes with about 20km left in the stage. 

Stage 11: Padron – Padron

• Date: August 28
• Type: Mountain
• Distance: 166.4 km

Today’s stage is considered a medium-mountain stage as it has two Cat-2 climbs and two Cat-3 climbs. On paper, it looks like a great day for the breakaway. There could be some tired legs after the previous tough stages. But, the peloton could allow the breakaway to succeed in order to preserve their energy for the challengin stages later in the week. 

Stage 12: Ourense Termal – Estacion de Montana de Manzaneda

• Date: August 29
• Type: Mountain
• Distance: 137.4 km

This could be another breakaway stage or a battle of GC riders. With some undulations and a sprint bonus along the way, Stage 12 finishes with a gut-punch. It’s a very short mountain stage that ends on the Montana de Manzaneda, which is a Cat-1 climb with 15.4 km at 4.7%. 

Stage 13: Lugo – Puerto de Ancares

• Date: August 30
• Type: Mountain
• Distance: 175.6 km

Stage 13 should shake up the General Classification with a tough finish up the Puerto de Ancares. This Cat-1 climb is 7.5 km in length with an average gradient of 9.3 percent. Most of the final portions of this climb are over 10% gradient. Even if a breakaway succeeds, the GC riders will race up to the summit and look to gain time in the overall standings. 

Stage 14: Villafranca del Bierzo – Villablino

• Date: August 31
• Type: Mountain
• Distance: 200 km 

Stage 14 is the longest stage of the Vuelta a Espana at 200km. It’s not common to see stages this long in this Grand Tour. There are a few climbs along the way, with the most notable being the Puerto de Leitariegos. This Cat-1 climb summits with about 15km left in the race. It’s roughly 23km long and a 4.5% gradient. The climbing won’t be too difficult for most of the field and it could lead to another breakaway succeeding. 

Stage 15: Infiesto – Valgrande-Pajares Cuitu Negru

• Date: September 1
• Type: Mountain
• Distance: 143 km

Riders will be grateful that the rest comes tomorrow. This difficult stage looks like the field is finishing on a mountain that stretches into the heavens. There are three climbs before the finish, which includes two Cat-1s and one Cat-3. Those three climbs are relatively tame compared to the finish. 

At the finish of Stage 15, riders will battle up the Ciutu Negru which is uncategorized and has a length of 18.9 km. The average gradient is 7.4% but it gets as high as 18 to 20% over the last few kilometers. The GC riders will have an epic fight up this torturous climb. 

Stage 16: Luanco – Lagos de Covadonga

• Date: September 3
• Type: Mountain
• Distance: 181.3 km

After the second and final rest day of the Grand Tour, riders will be treated with three more climbs including the Cat-1 Collada Llamena and the finale of the Lagos de Covadonga. The latter climb us uncategorized with a distance of 12.5 km and 6.9% gradient. Although not as shattering as the previous stage, this final climb will test the legs of the GC riders following the rest day. 

Stage 17: Arnuero – Santander

• Date: September 4
• Type: Mountain
• Distance: 141.5 km

This is another medium-mountain stage where the climbs are done by the halfway point of the stage. The final 50 kilometers are flat and a great chance for the sprinters to get a win, if they can get over the two Cat-2 climbs and chase down any breakways. 

Stage 18: Vitoria-Gasteiz – Maeztu

• Date: September 5
• Type: Mountain
• Distance: 179 km

After the brutal number of climbs that the riders have faced up to this point, today’s stage is going to be filled with fireworks as the peloton races in Basque Country. You can expect the Basque riders to animate the race with a Cat-2 and a Cat-1 climb to use as launching pads. 

Stage 19: Logrono – Alto de Moncavillo

• Date: September 6
• Type: Hilly
• Distance: 173.2 km

No rest for the weary as Stage 19 has another difficult finish as the peloton climbs up the Alto de Moncalvillo to the finish line. This Cat-1 climb is 8.6 km in length with an average gradient of 8.9%. It will be another day for the climbers and GC contenders to punctuate their chances of winning the red jersey. 

Stage 20: Villarcayo – Picon Blanco

• Date: September 7
• Type: Mountain
• Distance: 172 km

The second to last stage of the Vuelta, Stage 20 is going to be brutal. It might not have the steepest climbs, but there are seven climbs throughout the 172 kilometers. You can’t help but laugh at the sadistic planning from race organizers. The brutal stage ends on the Picon Blanco, which is a Cat-1 climb with a length of 7.9 km and a 9.1% average gradient. It’s the seventh and final climb of the day, and the third of three Cat-1 climbs. 

Stage 21: Madrid – Madrid

• Date: September 8
• Type: Individual Time Trial
• Distance: 24.6 km

The 2024 Vuelta a Espana begins and ends with an individual time trial. However, the final stage’s ITT is twice as long as the opening stage’s ITT. One has to wonder if this stage will have any impact on the overall standings by time we get to the final day of racing. 

With so many mountain stages, the final ITT could be for riders looking to get a stage win or crack the Top 10 in the standings. The red jersey competition should be wrapped up by the conclusion of Stage 20.