Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals Picks and Predictions August 13th 2024

Reds’ Hunter Greene aims for different outcome vs. Cardinals

The Reds and Cardinals face off in an NL Central matchup at 6:40 PM ET at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati. The forecast for Tuesday’s game calls for scattered clouds and temperatures in the mid to upper 80s. St. Louis is 60-59, while the Reds are 58-61. Hunter Greene will be on the mound for the Reds, and the Cardinals are starting Erick Fedde.

Cincinnati is currently favored on the money line, with their odds sitting at -134 compared to the Cardinals at +114. The over/under line is sitting at 9 runs, and the Reds will be looking to extend their two-game win streak. St. Louis has lost two straight and is 2nd in the NL Central.

St. Louis vs. Cincinnati Key Information

• Teams: Cardinals at Reds
• Where: Great American Ball Park Cincinnati
• Date: Tuesday, August 13th
• Betting Odds CIN -134 | STL +114 O/U 9

The Cardinals Can Win If…

Right-hander Erick Fedde gets the start for the Cardinals today as he faces the Reds on the road. He has made 23 starts this season and has a record of 8-5 with a 3.28 ERA. Fedde’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.15, and he has turned in 10 quality starts. In his last outing, Fedde picked up the win, going five innings and giving up just one earned run on six hits. Before that, he had taken the loss in two straight outings. Looking back further, he has lost three of his last five starts.

St. Louis comes into today’s game averaging 4.1 runs per game, which is 22nd in the league. They have been slightly better at home, averaging 4.3 runs per game. As a team, the Cardinals are batting .246, which is 11th in the league, and they are also 11th in the league in strikeouts. So far, they have been a below-average home run hitting team and are also near the bottom of the league in terms of team OPS.

Right fielder Alec Burleson has been a big power threat for the Cardinals this season, as his 20 homers are the best on the team and 13th in the league. He is also batting .277 for the season. Brendan Donovan has also been a key run producer for the Cardinals, as his 53 RBIs are 2nd on the team. Over his last six games, Nolan Arenado has gone 8/22, and Willson Contreras has gone 7/23.

• The Cardinals are 4-6 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Cardinals are 2-3 vs. the run line.
• St. Louis has an over/under record of 5-5 in their last ten games.
• The Cardinals have an average of 4.2 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten road games, the Cardinals are 3-7
• Looking back across the Cardinals last five games as the favorite, they are 3-2
• St. Louis has gone 1-2 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Cardinals have averaged 2.9 runs per game on offense

The Reds Can Win If…

Hunter Greene is looking to bounce back from his last outing, where he finished with a no-decision. Against the Marlins, he gave up three earned runs in six innings of work. Looking back further, Greene has been solid, as he hasn’t allowed more than three earned runs in an outing since June 26th. The right-hander has a record of 8-4, an ERA of 2.90, and a WHIP of 1.03. Greene’s ERA at home is 3.90, compared to 2.29 on the road. He has come through with 12 quality starts this year.

Elly De La Cruz has been on a tear of late for the Reds, going 14/38 in his last nine games with three homers and six RBIs. For the season, he is batting .266 with 21 homers and 51 RBIs. Spencer Steer has also been swinging a hot bat of late, going 8/28 in his last eight games with three homers and nine RBIs. Steer is 15th in the league with 74 RBIs.

As a team, the Reds are averaging 4.5 runs per game, which is 14th in the league. They are also 10th in the league in homers and have an isolated power figure of .168, which is 8th in the MLB. Overall, they are batting just .230 and have a collective on-base percentage of .303.

• The Reds are 6-4 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Reds are 4-1 vs. the run line.
• Cincinnati has an over/under record of 7-3 in their last ten games.
• The Reds have an average of 4.6 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten home games, the Reds are 5-5
• Looking back across the Reds last five games as the favorite, they are 4-1
• Cincinnati has gone 2-1 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Reds have averaged 4.3 runs per game on offense

The Lean

For an over/under pick, our lean is on the over, as this is projected to be the 10th highest-scoring game of the day. As for who is going to take this one straight-up, we have our lean on the Reds to pick up the win. Cincinnati starter Hunter Greene is our 3rd ranked starting pitcher of the day in terms of strikeouts, and he has the 2nd best hits allowed projection among today’s starters.

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As the Cincinnati Reds eye a series victory against the St. Louis Cardinals, all eyes will be on their ace, Hunter Greene. The right-hander, who has been in exceptional form and is garnering attention as a potential National League Cy Young Award candidate, will take the mound Tuesday night, hoping to continue his dominant streak.

Hunter Greene’s Form: A Cy Young Contender

Hunter Greene (8-4, 2.90 ERA) has been on a tear recently, posting a 3-0 record with a minuscule 0.92 ERA across six starts since June 30. His last defeat came at the hands of the Cardinals, when he was outdueled by Lance Lynn in a 2-0 loss, despite allowing just one run on four hits and striking out six in 4 2/3 innings.

Since that loss, Greene has delivered four scoreless outings in six starts, including a masterful performance against the San Francisco Giants on August 3, where he allowed just one hit and struck out 11 over six innings in a 6-4 Reds victory. His 24-inning scoreless streak, the longest by a Reds starter since Tom Browning’s 25-inning streak in 1989, underscores his dominance and resilience on the mound.

Greene’s streak ended in his last outing against the Miami Marlins, where he gave up three runs on six hits over six innings. However, the Reds still secured a 10-4 win, showcasing Greene’s ability to help his team even when not at his best.

“Honestly, I take a lot more pride in days like today when you don’t have your best stuff and you’re still able to go out and get a win,” Greene reflected postgame. “It’s a testament to your focus and making the best pitches you can without your best stuff.”

Greene’s Challenge: Overcoming Cardinals’ History

Despite his recent success, Greene has had mixed results against the Cardinals throughout his career. In eight starts against St. Louis, he holds a 1-4 record with a 3.57 ERA. This history adds an intriguing layer to the upcoming game, as Greene will need to overcome past struggles to secure another victory for Cincinnati.

Cardinals’ Counter: Erick Fedde on the Mound

The Cardinals will counter with right-hander Erick Fedde (8-5, 3.28 ERA), who is making his third start for St. Louis since being acquired at the trade deadline from the Chicago White Sox. Fedde has been inconsistent since the move, posting a 5.40 ERA in his first two starts with the Cardinals. He holds a 1-1 record but has struggled against the Reds in his career, with a 6.05 ERA over four starts.

In his latest outing, Fedde secured his first win with the Cardinals, allowing one run on four hits over five innings in a 5-2 victory against the Tampa Bay Rays. However, his high ERA against the Reds could signal a tough night ahead for St. Louis.

Reds Riding High: Momentum from Series Opener

Cincinnati enters the game with momentum on their side, following a commanding 6-1 victory in the series opener on Monday. Spencer Steer led the charge with two home runs and a career-high five RBIs, while Elly De La Cruz added a home run and a double. Andrew Abbott, another standout Reds pitcher, secured his 10th win of the season by holding the Cardinals to just one run over 6 2/3 innings.

The Cardinals had opportunities early in the game, loading the bases in the second inning, but were unable to capitalize, as Pedro Pages grounded into an inning-ending double play. The Reds then seized control with back-to-back home runs from Steer and De La Cruz in the third inning, and Steer added a three-run shot in the fifth to put the game out of reach.

Cardinals’ Struggles: Missed Opportunities

St. Louis manager Oliver Marmol lamented his team’s missed opportunities, particularly their inability to score with the bases loaded in consecutive innings. “It changes the overall vibe and momentum when you put yourself in a situation to score, you load the bases with one out and don’t score,” Marmol said. “During the stretch run, we’re going to play some good teams and we’re going to have to do a better job of executing with runners in scoring position.”

What’s at Stake?

For Greene and the Reds, a win on Tuesday would secure a series victory and keep them in strong contention for the playoffs. For the Cardinals, finding a way to break through against Greene could provide a much-needed boost as they fight to stay relevant in the postseason race.

With both teams having a lot to play for, Tuesday’s matchup promises to be a compelling contest, with Greene’s performance likely being the key to the outcome. As the Reds’ ace looks to continue his Cy Young-worthy season, the Cardinals will be aiming to turn the tide and even the series.