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On Friday, November 29, the NFL returns to the day after Thanksgiving for its second annual Black Friday Football game. Last year, it was the Miami Dolphins vs. New York Jets kicking off the inaugural Black Friday tradition. This year, we’ll see an AFC West rivalry game as the Kansas City Chiefs host the Las Vegas Raiders at Arrowhead Stadium.
Black Friday football is the NFL’s strategic effort to take over the entire Thanksgiving holiday weekend. The league begins the holiday weekend with three games on Thanksgiving and follows the Black Friday matchup with 11 games on Sunday and one game on Monday.
The Chiefs bounced back in Week 12 by defeating the Carolina Panthers on the road. However, it was a narrow 30 to 27 victory and not one that convinced even the die-hard fans that everything is alright with the team.
Kansas City lost to Buffalo in Week 11 and the expectations were that the team would crush Carolina in response to their first loss of the season. Unfortunately, that didn’t happen. In fact, it even sparked unfamiliar comments from Mahomes who stated he wants blowout victories.
The Raiders enter this matchup on a seven-game losing streak. It looks bleak in Vegas as this team is heading towards a dumpster fire at the end of the season. With that said, let’s not forget that the Raiders were in a similar position last year when they upset the Chiefs on Christmas Day.
Let’s dive deeper into the latest NFL odds, courtesy of the top sports betting sites, and make our Week 13 NFL Predictions for the Las Vegas Raiders vs. Kansas City Chiefs.
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What Channel is the Black Friday football game on?
- Black Friday Football Channel: Amazon Prime Video
- Black Friday Football Time: 3 p.m. EST
Just like with the regular Thursday Night Football games, the NFL Black Friday football game will stream live on Amazon Prime Video.
Black Friday Football Betting
Keep an eye on the latest NFL odds for Black Friday’s game and monitor how the lines change throughout the week.
The Kansas City Chiefs opened as -355 betting favorites and giving up 7.5 points. Since then, both numbers have nearly doubled. The Chiefs are now listed at -800 odds and giving up 13.5 points. The Raiders opened at +280 and can now be found at +550 or higher.
The Total opened at 45.5 points. It dropped as low as 42.5 points where it currently sits at. Some sportsbooks still have the Over/Under as high as 43 points.
Black Friday Football Odds
The following NFL odds are courtesy of ScoresandStats:
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Las Vegas Raiders | +550 | +13 (-110) | Over 42.5 (-110) |
| Kansas City Chiefs | -800 | -13 (-110) | Under 42.5 (-110) |
Since this is only the second time that the NFL has played on Black Friday, neither of these teams have appeared in a Black Friday football game before. However, both of these AFC West teams have played on Thanksgiving.
The Las Vegas Raiders have played eight times on Thanksgiving and hold a 4-4 record. They last appeared on Turkey Day in 2021, when they beat the Cowboys in OT by the score of 36-33.
The Kansas City Chiefs have played 10 times on Thanksgiving and boast of a 5-5 overall record. Their last appearance on Turkey Day was against the Denver Broncos in the inaugural primetime Thanksgiving game, which started in 2006.
These bitter rivals have played against each other 131 times since 1960. Their last meeting took place in Week 8 at Las Vegas. The Chiefs held on to win that game by the score of 27-20.
The Chiefs hold the series advantage with a 73-55-2 record. Kansas City has won 17 of the last 21 head-to-head meetings.
The Raiders won on Christmas Day last year, which snapped a six-game losing streak to the Chiefs. Kansas City is 38-26-1 in home games against Las Vegas, which includes going 9-2 in their last 11 meetings at Arrowhead Stadium.
Black Friday Football Betting Trends
Check out the following Las Vegas Raiders vs. Kansas City Chiefs betting trends:
Raiders vs. Chiefs Betting Trends
- Chiefs are 8-2 SU in last 10 meetings
- Chiefs are 9-2 in last 11 home games
- Chiefs are 5-5 ATS in last 10 matchups
- Over is 7-3 in last 10 contests
Las Vegas Raiders Betting Trends
- 0-7 SU in last seven games
- 1-6 SU in last seven road games
- 1-4 ATS in last five November games
- 2-5 ATS in last seven games
- Over is 6-1 in last seven games
Kansas City Chiefs Betting Trends
- 8-0 SU in last eight home games
- 16-1 SU in last 17 games
- 0-5 ATS in last five games
- 0-4-1 ATS in last five AFC games
- 1-5 ATS in last six November games
- Under is 8-2 in last 10 AFC West games
- Under is 4-1 in last five Week 13 games
- Over is 4-1 in last five games
Black Friday Predictions
Let’s take a closer look at some of the key matchups for this game as we make our Black Friday NFL picks. NFL stats are courtesy of TeamRankings and Pro Football Reference.
Raiders Offense vs. Chiefs Defense
It’s hard to even compare this Raiders offense to the Chiefs defense as it appears to be a complete mismatch on paper.
The Raiders average 18.7 ppg and the Chiefs give up 19.8 ppg. The Raiders put up 292.6 total yards per game (28th) and the Chiefs only allow 300.8 ypg, which is the 4th best in the league.
Furthermore, the Raiders average 74.6 rushing yards per game which is dead last in the league. The Chiefs only allow 85.3 ypg on the ground, which is the third best mark in the NFL.
Las Vegas does put up 218 passing ypg (16th) but that’s because they can’t run the ball, so they throw it more than any other team at 66.23% of the time. The Chiefs allow just 215.5 passing yards per game (18th).
Over the last two weeks, the Raiders could only muster up 19 points per game. In fact, over their seven game skid, the Raiders scored under 20 points in five of them. Now, in Week 8, the Raiders did put up 20 points against the Chiefs and lost by seven points.
Since then, they’ve lost by double digits in three consecutive games. It’s clear that the Chiefs’ defense will win this in-game matchup.
Chiefs Offense vs. Raiders Defense
This isn’t the same Chiefs offense that we’re used to seeing over the years. Even with the addition of Hopkins to the receiving group, this offense is still below expectations. It’s probably best for fans, bettors and pundits to lower those expectations because there’s very little here to suggest that KC is a Top 10 offense.
Other than scoring 24.5 ppg (10th), 3rd Down conversion of 52.7% (1st), 4th down conversion of 81.82% (3rd), and 2.7 TDs per game (9th), this team is failing to succeed on the ground or through the air like they used to. In other words, it’s been the defense that’s leading the charge.
Don’t believe me?
One stat proves it all. Patrick Mahomes has thrown 11 interceptions to 18 TDs on the season. Please tell me the last time Mahomes has played this poorly.
The only chance that the Raiders have, is to get after Mahomes and force turnovers or sacks. When it comes to yardage, Las Vegas has decent numbers as they allow 327.5 ypg (14th), 119.5 rushing yards per game (14th), and 208.1 passing yards per game (12th).
What gets the Raiders into trouble is the fact that they allow the 3rd most points in the league at 28.5 ppg. And they give up the 4th most touchdowns at 3.1 TDs per game. Las Vegas will have to play a near-perfect game on defense to give this team a shot at winning.
Who Wins The Black Friday Game: Raiders or Chiefs?
The Raiders and Chiefs had a tough matchup in Week 8 where Las Vegas was competitive for three quarters of the game. KC was up just 17 to 13 heading into the 4th quarter where they outscored Vegas 10 to 7.
The Chiefs were favored by nine points in that matchup. Needless to say, they didn’t cover the spread. In fact, the Chiefs haven’t covered in five straight games. They’re just 5-6 ATS this season, 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games against AFC teams, and 1-5 ATS in their last six November contests.
The Raiders haven’t been great against the spread this year either. However, the last time they covered was against the Chiefs. At nearly two touchdowns, I’m taking the Raiders to cover.
Unfortunately, I don’t see Las Vegas pulling off the shocking upset like they did on Christmas last year. I think the Chiefs will end up winning this game as they’re 9-2 against the Raiders in home games. Additionally, the Chiefs have won their last eight games at home spanning to last year.
As for the Total, I would avoid this wager. The Raiders are too inconsistent offensively. With that said, if you are determined to bet the Total, then take the Under as the Chiefs defense is elite and the Raiders offense is awful.
Bet: Kansas City Chiefs (-800), Las Vegas Raiders +13 (-110)
Black Friday Football Prop Bets
Check out our picks for the best Las Vegas Raiders vs. Kansas City Chiefs Game and Player Prop bets:
Patrick Mahomes Passing Touchdowns
- Over 1.5 TDs (-110)
- Under 1.5 TDs (-110)
On the season, Patrick Mahomes has just 18 TDs in 11 games, which is far less than two TDs per game. However, he has thrown for two or more touchdowns in four of his last five games including two in a row. In fact, Mahomes has six TD passes in the last two games.
Against the Raiders in Week 8, Mahomes threw two touchdown passes. Las Vegas allows 28.5 points per game which breaks down to 3.1 TDs per game. Yet, Vegas only gives up one rushing TD per game, which means they allow at least two passing touchdowns per game.
I like for Mahomes to hit the Over and I wouldn’t be surprised if the did it in the first half. This game should unfold like their first encounter did five weeks ago as the Chiefs pull away late to win by less than 10 points.
Bet: Over 1.5 TDs (-110)
Spencer Shrader Points
- Over 8.5 points (-110)
- Under 8.5 points (-110)
Spencer Shrader is filling in for Harrison Butker who is still on injured reserve for a few more weeks. In his first game, Shrader only scored three points versus the Bills.
In his second game, Shrader put up 12 points. He went 3-for-3 on field goals and 3-for-3 on extra points versus the Panthers.
In the Week 8 matchup, Butker scored nine points on two field goals and three extra points. I see something similar happening this week for Shrader.
Bet: Over 8.5 points (-110)
Both Teams To Score a TD Each Half
- Yes (+300)
- No (-400)
At first glance, I was going to jump on the No option. Yet, after looking things over, I think a small flier on the Yes option is worth it.
In their first game this season, the Raiders scored a TD in both halves. They scored in the first quarter and the fourth quarter.
I see Las Vegas getting a TD before the first half expires and then picking up another one in garbage time as the Chiefs have the game in hand. This also means that KC will easily score a touchdown in both halves.
Bet: Yes (+300)
Kansas City Chiefs Total TDs
- Over 3.5 (+140)
- Under 3.5 (-170)
Speaking of touchdowns, I see KC putting up three touchdowns in this Black Friday game just like they did in their Week 8 contest. That means, take the Under for this prop bet.
On the season, KC averages 24.5 ppg and only 2.7 TDs per game. Last week against the Panthers, the Chiefs only scored three touchdowns despite putting up 30 total points. They also scored three touchdowns or less against the Bills and Broncos, making it three straight games.
On the season, the Chiefs have scored three or less touchdowns in nine of their 11 games. And, one of the games where they put up four TDs was against the Buccaneers because the game went into OT.
Bet: Under 3.5 TDs (-170)
Best Bets For Black Friday Football
The best bets for Black Friday are as follows:
- Kansas City Chiefs (-800)
- Las Vegas Raiders +13 (-110)
- Patrick Mahomes over 1.5 TDs (-110)
- Kansas City Chiefs under 3.5 TDs (-110)
The Kansas City Chiefs have won eight of the last 10 head-to-head meetings versus the Raiders. In fact, they’ve taken nine of the last 11 home games versus Las Vegas. KC is 16-1 in their last 17 games and 8-0 in their last eight home games. I like for this team to win on Friday.
However, I don’t see the Chiefs covering the 13 points. I think the Raiders can sneak in on the backend of this game and get the spread below two touchdowns. They covered the spread in their Week 8 matchup. Additionally, the spread is 5-5 in the last 10 head-to-head meetings.
On the season, the Chiefs are 0-5 ATS in their last five games, 1-5 ATS in their last six November games, and 0-4-1 ATS in their last five AFC games.
I like for Mahomes to throw for two touchdowns this week just like he did in their first game. Mahomes has thrown for two or more TDs in four of the last five games. This team is willing to fire the ball into the endzone even if they’re near the goal line.
However, I don’t see KC scoring more than three touchdowns in this game. KC has only gone over that mark in just two of their 11 games this year. And, one of those games went into Overtime. The Chiefs scored three TDs or less in four of their last five games, which includes the October game versus the Raiders.
2023 Black Friday Football Result
The AFC East was in the spotlight on Black Friday as the New York Jets hosted their division rival the Miami Dolphins. Unfortunately, the Jets were mired in an awful season after losing starting QB Aaron Rodgers to a season-ending injury in Week 1.
The Dolphins rolled into MetLife Stadium and destroyed the Jets 34-13. The Jets rolled out a third QB of the year in this matchup, and it was a dreadful result. Although New York boasted of one of the best defenses in the league, they could not overcome a high-school caliber offense.
