Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins Picks and Predictions August 14th 2024

Marlins shoot for sweep of two-game series with Phillies

The Phillies head into Wednesday’s matchup vs. the Marlins looking to snap a four-game losing streak. However, they are heavy favorites on the money line at -191. On the other side, the Marlins have won two straight and are +160 on the money line. Edward Cabrera is starting for Miami, while Tyler Phillips is going for the Phillies.

First pitch from Citizen Bank Park is set for 6:40 PM ET. NSPPH is carrying this one on TV. The over/under line is at 9 runs, and the Marlins are currently 5th in the NL East with a record of 45-75. The Phillies are 1st in the NL East with a record of 69-50.

Miami vs. Philadelphia Key Information

• Teams: Marlins at Phillies
• Where: Citizens Bank Park Philadelphia
• Date: Wednesday, August 14th
• Betting Odds PHI -191 | MIA +160 O/U 9

The Marlins Can Win If…

Miami is sending right-hander Edward Cabrera to the mound today vs. the Phillies. He has made 12 starts this season and has a record of 2-3 with an ERA of 5.21. Opponents have hit .218 off Cabrera this season, and his WHIP is 1.43. Cabrera has made two quality starts this year and is averaging 11.06 strikeouts per nine innings. In his last outing, he didn’t give up a run in seven innings of work, finishing with a no-decision. Before that, he had given up at least two earned runs in three straight outings.

Over the past 10 games, Jake Burger has been on a tear for the Marlins, going 14/41 with seven home runs and 10 RBIs. This has helped him move into the team lead in RBIs for the season, and his 23 homers are 13th in the league. Jesús Sánchez is also having a solid season for the Marlins, as he is 2nd on the team with 15 homers and is batting .240.

As a team, the Marlins are 29th in the league in runs per game at just 3.7. This is due to their lack of plate discipline, as they are the worst team in the league in terms of walks. However, they have been swinging the bats better of late, with Sánchez, Josh Bell, Jake Burger, and Bryan De La Cruz all currently on hitting streaks.

• The Marlins are 5-5 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Marlins are 3-2 vs. the run line.
• Miami has an over/under record of 6-4 in their last ten games.
• The Marlins have an average of 5.2 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten road games, the Marlins are 6-4
• Looking back across the Marlins last five games as the favorite, they are 4-1
• Miami has gone 2-1 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Marlins have averaged 4.5 runs per game on offense

The Phillies Can Win If…

Tyler Phillips gets the start for the Phillies today and is coming off a rough outing against the Dodgers. In that game, he gave up four earned runs in 5 innings of work. Looking back further, Phillips has been pitching well, as he had a shutout and a complete game in two of his previous three outings. Overall, he has a record of 4-1 and an ERA of 4.83. Opposing batters are hitting .233 off Phillips this season. His ERA on the road is 13.16 compared to 3.0 at home.

Heading into today’s game, the Phillies are averaging 4.8 runs per game, which is 8th in the league. They have been even better at home, putting up 5.2 runs per game. Overall, they are the league’s 8th best home run-hitting team and have the 6th best team batting average in the MLB. Over the team’s last nine games, Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber have been swinging the bat well. Harper has gone 13/36 in that stretch, while Schwarber has five homers in his last nine games.

Both Schwarber and Harper have been big run producers for the Phillies this season, with Schwarber’s 74 RBIs being the 2nd most in the league and Harper’s 72 RBIs being the 3rd most in the league. Alec Bohm has also been a key run producer for the Phillies, as his 80 RBIs leads the team and is the 10th most in the league. He is also batting .295 for the season.

• The Phillies are 4-6 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Phillies are 1-4 vs. the run line.
• Philadelphia has an over/under record of 5-4-1 in their last ten games.
• The Phillies have an average of 2.8 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten home games, the Phillies are 4-6
• Looking back across the Phillies last five games as the favorite, they are 1-4
• Philadelphia has gone 2-1 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Phillies have averaged 4.5 runs per game on offense

The Lean

Today’s matchup between the Marlins and Phillies has the 2nd highest combined runs projection and 2nd highest total hits projection. We are leaning towards the Marlins to pick up the win, and for an over/under pick, we are leaning towards the over. Looking at today’s starters, we have Edward Cabrera as our 3rd highest projected strikeout pitcher compared to Tyler Phillips who has the 6th lowest projection.

The Miami Marlins will look to complete a two-game series sweep against the Philadelphia Phillies on Wednesday, riding high on the power surges of Jake Burger and Jesús Sánchez. The Marlins, currently at the bottom of the National League East, are seeking to capitalize on the Phillies’ recent struggles to gain momentum in the season.

Marlins Riding Hot Streaks

Jake Burger has been on a tear, homering in four consecutive games, including a solo shot that helped lead the Marlins to a 5-0 victory in the series opener on Tuesday. This marked his 23rd home run of the season and his 13th since the All-Star break. Burger’s recent form has been instrumental, as he boasts a .330 batting average with 19 RBIs in 24 games since the break.

Jesús Sánchez has also found his power stroke, hitting home runs in back-to-back games. These contributions have helped the Marlins level their season series with the Phillies at four wins apiece, adding excitement to what has been a tough season for Miami.

Xavier Edwards is another Marlins player making an impact, going 2-for-5 with a run in Tuesday’s game. He has been red-hot since the All-Star break, batting .363 with 10 RBIs over 24 games. These performances highlight the potential in Miami’s lineup as they seek to finish the season strong.

Phillies Struggle to Find Form

The Philadelphia Phillies, who lead the NL East, have hit a rough patch, losing four straight games and 11 of their last 15. The shutout loss on Tuesday marked their first at home in exactly a year, much to the dismay of the Citizens Bank Park crowd.

Phillies manager Rob Thomson acknowledged the team’s frustration but remained optimistic about their mindset. “Is it time to do [a team meeting]? It depends on a lot of things… I think overall they’re very solid right now. Frustrated because they know we’re better than that,” Thomson said.

Kyle Schwarber echoed his manager’s sentiments, emphasizing that the team is more frustrated than worried. “It’s not worry. Frustration… If you’re worried about where you’re at, it’s not a good thing to be,” Schwarber noted. Despite a lackluster four-hit performance in the series opener, the Phillies are focused on turning things around quickly.

Pitching Matchup: Cabrera vs. Phillips

The Marlins will send right-hander Edward Cabrera (2-3, 5.20 ERA) to the mound as they aim for the sweep. Cabrera has been in excellent form, pitching 12 consecutive scoreless innings over his last two starts. In his most recent outing, he scattered four hits over seven shutout innings in a no-decision against the San Diego Padres. Cabrera’s recent success is a testament to his potential, as Marlins manager Skip Schumaker emphasized, “It’s never physical with him… this just proves that he’s good enough to do that.”

Cabrera, 26, has a solid track record against the Phillies, holding a 2.84 ERA in four career starts.

The Phillies will counter with right-hander Tyler Phillips (4-1, 4.83 ERA), who is looking to stabilize the team’s pitching after a mixed performance in his last outing. Phillips allowed four runs on six hits over five innings but still managed to secure the win against the Los Angeles Dodgers. Wednesday’s start will be his first career appearance against the Marlins, presenting a fresh challenge as the Phillies aim to avoid the sweep.

What to Expect

As the Marlins look to capitalize on their recent surge and the Phillies attempt to halt their skid, Wednesday’s game promises to be a compelling matchup. With Jake Burger and Jesús Sánchez swinging hot bats, and Edward Cabrera in top form, Miami has the momentum. However, Philadelphia’s desire to break their losing streak and maintain their divisional lead adds a layer of intensity to the contest.

Whether the Marlins can pull off the sweep or the Phillies can reverse their fortunes, this game is crucial for both teams as they approach the latter stages of the season.

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