Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals Picks and Predictions August 14th 2024

Reds target home sweep of Cardinals

At 6:40 PM ET, the Reds and Cardinals will face off in an NL Central matchup. This one is taking place at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, and the Reds are looking to extend their three-game winning streak. However, they are the slight money line underdog (-106).

As for the Cardinals, they are 60-60 this season and Kyle Gibson to the mound on Wednesday. They are currently on a three-game losing streak, and their money line odds are at -113. The over/under line is currently 9.5 runs, and BSOH is carrying this game on TV.

St. Louis vs. Cincinnati Key Information

• Teams: Cardinals at Reds
• Where: Great American Ball Park Cincinnati
• Date: Wednesday, August 14th
• Betting Odds STL -113 | CIN -106 O/U 9.5

The Cardinals Can Win If…

Right-hander Kyle Gibson gets the start for the Cardinals today as he faces the Reds on the road. He has made 22 starts this season and has a record of 7-4 with a 3.99 ERA. Looking at his overall numbers, Gibson has a WHIP of 1.32 and has turned in 10 quality starts. In his last outing, Gibson finished with a no-decision, giving up two earned runs in six innings of work. Before that, he had gone three straight starts without giving up a homer. Gibson has been much better on the road, coming in with a record of 5-1 and 3.53 ERA compared to 2-3 with a 4.83 ERA at home.

So far this season, the Cardinals offense is averaging 4.1 runs per game, which is 24th in the league. They have been a little better at home, averaging 4.3 runs per game. As a team, they are batting .245, which is 10th in the league, and have the 18th ranked slugging percentage in the league. Their team on-base percentage of .309 is 12th in the league.

Right fielder Alec Burleson has been the Cardinals top power threat this season, as his 20 home runs is the best mark on the team. He is also batting .275, and his 67 RBIs are also the best on the team. Nolan Arenado and Brendan Donovan have also been key run producers, as they are both tied for 2nd on the team with 53 RBIs. Arenado is batting .270 for the season and has gone 11/34 over his last nine games.

• The Cardinals are 4-6 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Cardinals are 1-4 vs. the run line.
• St. Louis has an over/under record of 4-6 in their last ten games.
• The Cardinals have an average of 3.4 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten road games, the Cardinals are 3-7
• Looking back across the Cardinals last five games as the favorite, they are 3-2
• St. Louis has gone 1-2 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Cardinals have averaged 2.9 runs per game on offense

The Reds Can Win If…

Emilio Pagán has made 23 appearances this season and has a record of 2-3 with an ERA of 4.22. Currently, he has a WHIP of 1.36 and batting average allowed of .247. Per nine innings, Pagán is averaging 10.97 strikeouts and 3.38 walks. Looking at his home/away splits, he has an ERA of 10.64 at home compared to 2.25 on the road. At home, he is 2-1 compared to 0-2 on the road. The right-hander most recently pitched on August 11th, where he didn’t allow a run in one inning of work. He has finished with a no-decision in each of his last three outings.

Spencer Steer has been on a tear of late for the Reds, going 9/19 in his last six games with three homers and nine RBIs. Steer’s 18 homers are 3rd on the team, and his 75 RBIs lead the club and are 14th in the league. Elly De La Cruz is hitting .264 this season and is 15th in the league with 21 homers. He is also 3rd on the team with 51 RBIs.

Overall, the Reds are averaging 4.4 runs per game, which is 14th in the league. They have been a good home run hitting team this season, but are batting just .230 as a team. Their team on-base percentage of .303 is also just 17th in the league.

• The Reds are 6-4 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Reds are 4-1 vs. the run line.
• Cincinnati has an over/under record of 6-4 in their last ten games.
• The Reds have an average of 3.4 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten home games, the Reds are 5-5
• Looking back across the Reds last five games as the favorite, they are 4-1
• Cincinnati has gone 2-1 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Reds have averaged 4.3 runs per game on offense

The Lean

Our lean for a money-line pick would be to take the Reds to come out on top at home. We are also leaning towards taking the under, as this is projected to be the 10th lowest-scoring game of the day. This one has the 2nd lowest combined hits projection, and the 8th lowest combined strikeouts projection. Looking at today’s starters, we have Emilio Pagán as our lowest projected starter in terms of strikeouts.

The Cincinnati Reds are aiming to sweep the St. Louis Cardinals in their three-game series at home, following dominant performances in the first two matchups. With the postseason on the horizon, every game counts, and the Reds are determined to continue their winning streak.

Pitching Power Propels Reds to Victory

Pitching has been the Reds’ greatest asset in this series. On Monday, left-hander Andrew Abbott set the tone, allowing just one run on five hits over 6 2/3 innings, leading to a 6-1 victory. Hunter Greene followed up on Tuesday with an even more impressive outing, surrendering just one run on four hits across seven innings in a 4-1 win.

The Reds will rely on a pitching duo in the series finale, starting with Emilio Pagan (2-3, 4.22 ERA), who is expected to open the game. Carson Spiers (4-4, 4.45 ERA) will then take over, aiming to bounce back from recent struggles, including his last start where he allowed eight runs over five innings against the Milwaukee Brewers. Spiers has a 3.75 ERA in three career appearances against St. Louis and will look to improve on that in this critical game.

Offensive Firepower from Candelario

Cincinnati’s offense has been sparked by first baseman Jeimer Candelario, who tied his career high with his 19th home run in Tuesday’s win. Candelario attributes his success to a simplified approach at the plate, focusing on making solid contact. “Just put myself in a great position to hit the ball hard and see what happens,” Candelario said. “When you look for your pitch and be simple, try to hit the ball on the barrel, a lot of good things will happen.”

Reds’ Playoff Hopes on the Rise

The Reds have now won three consecutive games and 12 of their last 20, keeping them firmly in the race for a National League wild-card spot. Team chemistry and consistent pitching have been the cornerstones of their recent success. “The guys have always come together as a team from the first game through nine innings,” Candelario added. “The pitchers are doing an amazing job — and that’s what it takes to have a W.”

Cardinals Facing Critical Game to Stop Skid

Meanwhile, the Cardinals are reeling from a three-game losing streak that has put their own wild-card hopes in jeopardy. Manager Oliver Marmol acknowledged the team’s struggles, emphasizing the need for improvement. “We just have to own it,” Marmol said. “At the end of the day, no one is going to feel sorry for us. We have to own the fact that we haven’t come through in certain situations. … Moving forward, we just have to be better.”

St. Louis will send veteran right-hander Kyle Gibson (7-4, 3.99 ERA) to the mound in the finale. Gibson has been reliable, but he hasn’t earned a win in over a month, despite some solid performances. In his last outing against the Tampa Bay Rays, Gibson allowed two runs over six innings but did not factor into the decision as the bullpen faltered late in a 6-4 loss. Gibson holds a 2-0 record with a 5.40 ERA in three career starts against the Reds.

High Stakes in the Series Finale

As the Reds look to complete the sweep, they are aware of the stakes. A victory would not only extend their winning streak but also strengthen their bid for a wild-card spot. For the Cardinals, this game represents a chance to halt their skid and keep their postseason dreams alive. With playoff implications on the line, expect both teams to leave it all on the field.

Conclusion

The Reds are poised to continue their surge toward the postseason, driven by strong pitching and timely hitting. The Cardinals, however, will be desperate to avoid a sweep and reinvigorate their own playoff hopes. As the series finale unfolds, the outcome could significantly impact the postseason landscape for both teams.

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