Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox Picks and Predictions August 15th 2024

Thursday’s forecast in Baltimore calls for clear skies and temperatures in the mid to upper 80s. First pitch from Oriole Park at Camden Yards is set for 6:35 PM ET. MASN is carrying this game on TV.

The Orioles are favored on the money line, as they are at -144 compared to the Red Sox at +122. This AL East matchup features Nick Pivetta for the Red Sox and Zach Eflin for the Orioles. Boston is 63-56, while the Orioles are 71-50.

Boston vs. Baltimore Key Information

• Teams: Red Sox at Orioles
• Where: Oriole Park at Camden Yards Baltimore
• Date: Thursday, August 15th
• Betting Odds BAL -144 | BOS +122 O/U 8.5

Right-hander Nick Pivetta gets the start for the Red Sox today as he faces the Orioles on the road. This year, he has made 18 starts and has a record of 5-7 with an ERA of 4.44. Pivetta’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.14. In his 18 appearances, he has turned in seven quality starts and is averaging 11.05 strikeouts per nine innings. Pivetta most recently faced the Rangers, where he finished with a no-decision, giving up two earned runs in 4 2/3 innings of work. Before that, he had won two straight starts.

Heading into today’s game, the Red Sox are the 4th highest-scoring team in the league at 5 runs per game. They have been even better on the road, averaging 5.3 runs per contest. Overall, they are 2nd in team batting average at .261 and have the league’s 6th best home run total. As a team, they are 3rd in slugging, and 3rd in OPS.

Rafael Devers has been the Red Sox’s top power threat this season, as his 25 homers are good for 1st on the team and 11th in the league. He also leads the team with 72 RBIs and comes into the game batting .299. Jarren Duran is 3rd on the team with a batting average of .290 and has 14 homers.

• The Red Sox are 5-5 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Red Sox are 2-3 vs. the run line.
• Boston has an over/under record of 8-1-1 in their last ten games.
• The Red Sox have an average of 5.4 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten road games, the Red Sox are 5-5
• Looking back across the Red Sox last five games as the favorite, they are 2-3
• Boston has gone 0-3 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Red Sox have averaged 6.8 runs per game on offense

Zach Eflin has been pitching well for the Orioles, coming into this game with a record of 8-7 and an ERA of 3.83. So far, he has made 22 starts and has a WHIP of 1.15. Eflin has made nine quality starts this year and is averaging 7.24 strikeouts per nine innings. In his last outing, he didn’t give up a run, picking up the win after going seven innings vs. the Rays. Before that, he had given up at least two earned runs in three straight starts. Eflin has been much better at home, coming in with a 2.65 ERA compared to 4.84 on the road.

So far this season, the Orioles have been the best home run hitting team in the league and are also 3rd in runs per game at 5 runs per contest. As a team, they are batting .256, which is the 4th best mark in the league. Overall, their team OPS of .770 is the 2nd best in the MLB.

Anthony Santander is the league’s 3rd leading home run hitter and has driven in 80 runs this season, which is the best mark in the league. However, he has hit just .195 over his last 10 games. Gunnar Henderson has been hot of late, batting .317 in his last 10 games, and is batting .288 for the season with 30 homers.

• The Orioles are 6-4 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Orioles are 3-2 vs. the run line.
• Baltimore has an over/under record of 6-4 in their last ten games.
• The Orioles have an average of 3.8 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten home games, the Orioles are 5-5
• Looking back across the Orioles last five games as the favorite, they are 3-2
• Baltimore has gone 1-2 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Orioles have averaged 5.0 runs per game on offense

The Baltimore Orioles and Boston Red Sox are set to face off in a four-game series, and both teams are eager to gain some momentum as the season enters a critical phase. With ups and downs in recent games, these AL East rivals are focused on finding their groove and making a strong push toward the playoffs.

Orioles Looking for Consistency After Key Win

The Orioles broke out of a two-game slump with a much-needed 4-1 victory over the Washington Nationals on Wednesday. Since the All-Star break, Baltimore has had a tough time finding a steady rhythm, posting a 13-12 record that shows just how inconsistent they’ve been. Manager Brandon Hyde highlighted the importance of that win, saying the team finally played a “normal baseball game” with solid pitching and defense.

One bright spot for the Orioles was Gunnar Henderson, who smashed his 30th home run of the season. Rookie Coby Mayo also had a milestone moment, recording his first major league hit after a rough 0-for-16 start to his career. Henderson, who had been struggling at the plate, seems to be regaining his confidence.

Red Sox Looking to Bounce Back After Tough Loss

The Red Sox had a chance to sweep the Texas Rangers on Wednesday but let it slip away, losing 9-7 in 10 innings after blowing a three-run lead in the ninth. Boston has had its own struggles since the All-Star break, going 10-14, and giving up too many home runs has been a recurring problem. Manager Alex Cora acknowledged the team’s growing pains but stressed that they need to step up.

Despite their recent challenges, the Red Sox have won four of their last six road games. However, their overall road performance since the break has been shaky, with a 5-7 record.

Pitching Duel: Eflin vs. Pivetta

Thursday’s series opener will feature a matchup between Orioles right-hander Zach Eflin (8-7, 3.83 ERA) and Red Sox right-hander Nick Pivetta (5-7, 4.44 ERA). Eflin, who joined the Orioles from the Tampa Bay Rays, has been a solid addition, going 3-0 since the trade. In his last start, he shut down his former team, allowing just four hits over seven scoreless innings. Although he has a career ERA of 6.00 against Boston, he holds a 2-0 record in those starts.

Pivetta, on the other hand, has historically done well against the Orioles, boasting an 8-2 record and a 3.18 ERA in 12 career starts. However, he’s been inconsistent lately, struggling to make it through five innings in two of his last three outings. Pivetta will need to find his form again to give the Red Sox a strong start in this important series.

Series Outlook and Historical Context

The Orioles have had the upper hand against the Red Sox this season, winning five out of six games earlier in the year. However, the two teams haven’t faced each other since late May, and both have experienced significant changes in form since then.

As both teams aim to find stability, this series could be a turning point in their seasons. With both the Orioles and Red Sox needing to build momentum, fans can expect a highly competitive and drama-filled series.

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A Crucial Series for Both Teams

As the Orioles and Red Sox square off in this AL East clash, both teams are looking to build on recent positives and address their inconsistencies. With Zach Eflin and Nick Pivetta set to face off on the mound, the series opener is sure to set the tone for what could be a critical stretch for both teams. Every game in this series could have major implications for their postseason chances.

The Lean

For an over/under pick, our lean is on the over, as this is projected to be the 3rd highest-scoring game of today’s league slate. As for who is going to take this one straight up, we have our lean on the Orioles to pick up the win. The Red Sox offense has our 3rd highest team hits projection, and Nick Pivetta is 4th among today’s starters in projected strikeouts, but we still have the Orioles coming out on top. Zach Eflin is 9th in our projections in starting pitcher strikeouts.