2024 Senate Odds and Predictions

The presidential election may generate the most headlines, but that’s hardly the only major political storyline we’ll be following in the United States this fall. Let’s not forget about those down-ballot races that will ultimately determine whether the Republicans or Democrats control the major houses of Congress.

Heading into the 2024 election, Republicans hold an incredibly narrow edge in the House of Representatives. Democrats, meanwhile, hold the majority in the US Senate. While there are officially 49 Republican to 47 Democratic sitting Senators, the 4 Independents all caucus with the Dems. That gives the Democrats a slight 51-49 lead heading into November.

The balance of power may change this fall. There are a whopping 34 Senate seats up for grabs in this election, though the vast majority of the races aren’t expected to be competitive. 19 sitting Democratic Senators along with the 4 Independents are on the ballot this year, while 11 sitting Republicans will be fighting for re-election, as well.

While anything can happen on Election Day, just 7 of the 34 races are expected to be close. 5 of the close races happen to be taking place in swing states that could ultimately decide the presidential election. The other 2 feature sitting Democratic Senators occupying seats in red states, Montana and Ohio. You can bet on the outcomes in each state at a variety of online sportsbooks. Let’s pick a winner in each, shall we?

2024 Senate Odds

U.S. Senate Predictions

Check out our predictions for the following U.S. Senate races:

Michigan: Elissa Slotkin (D) vs. Mike Rogers (R)

• Elissa Slotkin (D) -500
• Mike Rogers (R) +300

The Michigan Senate race pits Democrat Elissa Slotkin, a moderate representative with a national security background, against Republican Mike Rogers, a former Congressman and former chairman of the House Intelligence Committee. Both are vying for the seat held by Democrat Debbie Stabenow, who is not seeking re-election.

Slotkin’s national security expertise is particularly appealing to a state with a strong manufacturing base that is sensitive to issues of international trade and security. Slotkin has earned bipartisan respect during her time in Congress, particularly for her pragmatic approach to healthcare, defense, and the economy. Her political brand is designed to appeal to Michigan’s suburban voters, especially in areas that have swung between parties in recent elections. Slotkin’s status as a significant favorite at -500 reflects her strength as a candidate in a state that has leaned Democratic in recent cycles, including in the 2020 presidential election.

Mike Rogers looks like a compelling Republican alternative. Rogers has a recognizable name in Michigan, stemming from his time in Congress and more recently as a political commentator. His experience in national security could help him attract voters who feel the economy and global threats are top issues. The +300 odds for Rogers reflect the challenge he faces in a state that has trended toward Democrats in recent national elections. However, with the right campaign focusing on economic issues, particularly inflation and manufacturing job losses, Rogers could narrow the gap.

From a betting perspective, Slotkin’s -500 odds indicate that she is expected to win handily, but betting on such heavy favorites offers little reward. The value bet is on Rogers at +300. Michigan remains a battleground state, and a strong Republican turnout could shift the race. Let’s not forget that Donald Trump flipped Michigan to beat Hillary Clinton in the 2016 election, so a Republican winning here is hardly unprecedented. However, the last Republican to win a Senate race in Michigan was Spencer Abraham, who held a seat from 1995 until his loss to Stabenow 2001.

Rogers has the potential to capture enough centrist and conservative votes to create an upset. If Michigan’s economy struggles in the lead-up to the election or if national political winds shift, Rogers could capitalize and make this a much closer race than the odds suggest.

Bet: Elissa Slotkin (D) -500

Ohio: Sherrod Brown (D) vs. Bernie Moreno (R)

• Sherrod Brown (D) -190
• Bernie Moreno (R) +140

Sherrod Brown, the Democratic incumbent, is one of the most recognizable names currently in the Senate.

Brown has won 3 Senate elections in Ohio, a state that has turned increasingly red in recent elections, including Donald Trump’s victories in 2016 and 2020. Brown’s political success comes from his populist, worker-focused approach, which resonates deeply in Ohio’s industrial and rural communities. He has built a reputation as a defender of the working class, often diverging from more progressive members of his party on issues like trade and economic policy. His appeal across party lines has allowed him to survive in a state that has otherwise drifted rightward.

Bernie Moreno, a wealthy businessman with no prior political experience, won the Republican primary back in March. Moreno was endorsed by Trump, which helped to boost his stock among GOP voters.

Moreno’s outsider status and business background make him an appealing candidate to conservative voters looking for change and fresh leadership. Moreno’s campaign is focused on deregulation, lowering taxes, and combating what he frames as the overreach of the federal government. Moreno’s +140 Senate odds reflect his uphill battle against Brown’s established presence, but in a state that elected Trump by significant margins in two elections, Moreno looks like an intriguing underdog bet.

In betting terms, Brown’s -190 odds suggest that oddsmakers still view him as the favorite despite Ohio’s shift to the right. This is due to his unique political appeal and established record in the state. Moreno’s +140 odds offer decent value for a Republican candidate in a red-trending state. A Moreno victory would not be shocking if national or local conditions turn further against Democrats, particularly on economic or social issues. For value bettors, Moreno is a worthwhile underdog to consider, especially in a state where Republicans have momentum.

Moreno’s candidacy could also get a boost with Trump atop the ticket this fall. If Ohio stays red in the presidential race, there’s a decent chance for Moreno to pull the upset. After all, split-ticket voting is increasingly rare in this age of division in American politics.

Bet: Bernie Moreno (R) +140

Pennsylvania: Bob Casey (D) vs. David McCormick (R)

• Bob Casey: -800
• Dave McCormick: +425

In Pennsylvania, incumbent Democrat Bob Casey, a Senator since 2007, is facing off against Republican Dave McCormick, a hedge fund CEO who nearly won the GOP primary for Senate in 2022. McCormick was edged by Dr. Mehmet Oz in that race before Oz went on to lose in the general election to Democrat John Fetterman.

Senator Casey has deep political roots in Pennsylvania, being the son of a former governor, and he is well-regarded across the state, especially in its heavily unionized regions. Casey has consistently run as a moderate Democrat, focusing on economic issues, healthcare, and labor rights, which has helped him retain support even as Pennsylvania has become more politically competitive.

McCormick brings significant financial resources and business acumen to the race. His experience as a former CEO of Bridgewater Associates and his service as a combat veteran gives him a strong platform on which to run. McCormick has built a broader political profile in the state since his aforementioned loss to Oz in the ’22 primary. Despite his strengths, McCormick faces a difficult race against Casey, who remains very popular across the Keystone State and has a significant lead in the polls.

At -800, Casey is a substantial favorite, and the odds reflect the strong likelihood that he will retain his seat. However, McCormick’s +425 odds could attract value bettors who believe the national political environment could shift in the GOP’s favor in 2024. Pennsylvania remains a battleground state, and any significant political or economic changes could provide McCormick with an opportunity to gain ground. While Casey’s win seems more likely, those looking for a high-reward bet may consider McCormick as a longshot option with significant upside if conditions change.

Bet: Bob Casey (D) -800

Wisconsin: Tammy Baldwin (D) vs. Eric Hovde (R)

• Tammy Baldwin: -800
• Eric Hovde: +425

Wisconsin’s Senate race features incumbent Democrat Tammy Baldwin, a progressive champion who has represented the state in the Senate since 2013, against Republican Eric Hovde, a businessman and former Senate candidate. Baldwin is known for her progressive stances on healthcare, LGBTQ+ rights, and labor, which have helped her secure a base of support in Wisconsin’s more liberal urban areas, particularly Madison and Milwaukee. Baldwin has also worked to bridge the gap with rural voters, focusing on economic policies that benefit the working class.

Hovde, who previously ran for Senate in 2012, is a wealthy businessman with strong connections to Wisconsin’s conservative base. He’s battle-tested after defeating an old 1840s-style prospector in the GOP primary on August 13th. Hovde’s campaign is focused on fiscal conservatism, deregulation, and reducing government interference in business.

While Baldwin is the favorite, Hovde’s financial resources and ability to appeal to rural and suburban voters in Wisconsin make him a formidable opponent. The +425 odds suggest that he has an outside shot, but Baldwin’s entrenched support base and popularity in key regions of the state make her the clear front-runner.

Baldwin’s -800 odds indicate that she is expected to win comfortably, reflecting both her strong political position and Wisconsin’s history of electing Democrats to statewide offices. However, for those willing to take a risk, Hovde’s +425 odds could present an opportunity if the political winds shift in favor of Republicans. The GOP did hold its convention in Milwaukee earlier this summer in an attempt to flip the state after Biden toppled Trump there in 2020.

Wisconsin is a notoriously unpredictable state, and any significant developments leading up to the election could make this race more competitive.

Bet: Tammy Baldwin (D) -800

Arizona: Ruben Gallego (D) vs. Kari Lake (R)

• Ruben Gallego: -500
• Kari Lake: +300

In Arizona, Democrat Ruben Gallego is running against Kari Lake, the former TV anchor who became a Republican firebrand after her 2022 gubernatorial loss to Katie Hobbs.

Gallego is a progressive congressman representing the state’s 3rd district. He’s also an Iraq War veteran who has built a reputation as a strong advocate for veterans’ rights and immigration reform. That’s no small thing in a hotly-contested border state. He has consistently focused on working-class issues and has the support of Arizona’s growing Latino population, which will be key to his success in the race.

Lake is a well-known figure both in Arizona an nationwide. She initially drew national headlines ahead of her defeat in the 2022 governor’s race. Lake’s candidacy appeals strongly to the MAGA base, and her refusal to concede the 2022 election has only solidified her standing among Trump supporters. Of course, that stubbornness will do her no favors with the moderate swing voters she’ll need to court in order to actually win a statewide race.

Lake’s persistent media presence and ability to connect with conservative voters give her a solid foundation in this race, though her more extreme positions could alienate moderate voters in Arizona’s suburban areas. This will be particularly impactful in the Phoenix suburbs, which have swung Democratic in recent elections. Over 4.5 million of the 7 million Arizona residents live in Maricopa County, which includes Phoenix and its suburbs.

Gallego’s odds of -500 reflect his advantage in a state that has been trending blue in recent elections, thanks in part to the state’s demographic changes. However, Lake’s +300 odds suggest that she is a dangerous opponent, particularly if national Republicans rally behind her campaign.

The key for Lake will be expanding her base beyond Trump loyalists to win over the moderates and independents who decided the 2020 and 2022 races in Arizona. For bettors, Gallego is the safer bet, but Lake offers strong value at +300, especially if she can moderate her image and appeal to a broader electorate.

Bet: Ruben Gallego (D) -500

Montana: Jon Tester (D) vs. Tom Sheehy (R)

• Jon Tester: +200
• Tom Sheehy: -300

Jon Tester, the incumbent Democratic senator from Montana, is running for re-election in what is expected to be one of the most competitive Senate races in 2024. Tester is known for his moderate stances and has successfully won three Senate elections in a deep-red state by focusing on issues that matter to Montanans, such as agricultural policy, veterans’ affairs, and healthcare. Tester has consistently outperformed his party’s presidential nominees in the state, winning re-election in 2018 despite Montana voting for Donald Trump in both 2016 and 2020 by a significant margin. Montana hasn’t been a blue state in a presidential election since Bill Clinton’s first successful run in 1992.

Tom Sheehy, a political newcomer with deep roots in Montana’s business and ranching community, is a tough challenger to Tester’s incumbency. Sheehy’s campaign is focused on traditional conservative values, such as lower taxes, deregulation, and protecting Second Amendment rights.

With the Senate odds heavily favoring Sheehy at -300, he is expected to win a state that has been trending Republican at the national level for the last 3 decades. Tester’s odds of +200 reflect the challenge he faces running as a Democrat in a state that has overwhelmingly supported Republicans in recent elections. Recent polls show Sheehy consistently running ahead of Tester as the election draws nearer.

However, Tester’s personal popularity and track record of winning tough races in Montana make him a compelling value bet. For those looking for a higher payout, backing Tester could be a smart play, especially if he can continue to distance himself from the national Democratic Party and appeal to independent voters.

Bet: Tom Sheehy (R) -300

Nevada: Jacky Rosen (D) vs. Sam Brown (R)

• Jacky Rosen: -400
• Sam Brown: +250

The Nevada Senate race features incumbent Democrat Jacky Rosen facing off against Republican Sam Brown, a retired Army captain and political newcomer who gained attention during his 2022 Senate primary bid. Rosen, first elected in 2018, has worked hard to maintain her moderate image in a state that has become increasingly competitive in recent years. She has focused on healthcare, job creation, and protecting Nevada’s key tourism and gaming industries, which have been crucial to her maintaining support in Las Vegas and Reno.

Nevada appears to be Trump’s strongest swing state. The former president has routinely led Kamala Harris in polls despite his lead shrinking since she entered the race. Interestingly, though, Rosen is actually running well ahead of Brown in Senate polls.

Sam Brown is an interesting candidate for the GOP, bringing a compelling personal story as a war veteran who was severely injured in Afghanistan. His outsider status and focus on conservative issues like reducing government spending and protecting Second Amendment rights have made him popular with the Republican base.

Nevada, however, remains a swing state with a significant Latino population that has historically leaned Democratic. The state has voted in favor of Democrats in each of the last 4 presidential elections dating back to 2008.

Rosen’s -400 odds suggest she’s a heavy favorite to retain her spot in the Senate, but Nevada’s competitive nature makes this race far from a sure thing. She did successfully unseat 2-term Republican Dean Heller in 2019, and she’s proven to be a popular choice.

Brown’s +250 odds present a value opportunity for bettors who believe the potential for Trump to flip the state could help the GOP Senate candidate do the same. The state’s razor-thin margins in both the 2020 presidential race and the 2022 gubernatorial race suggest that this contest could be closer than the odds suggest, making Brown a potentially profitable underdog pick.

Bet: Sam Brown (R) +250

Betting on the Senate Races

While several of these Senate races have lopsided odds as of now, a lot can change in a short span of time in this wild era of American politics. As a result, taking a stab at some of the plus-money underdogs isn’t a bad idea with so much time left until Election Day in November.

While the minus-money favorites are expected to win, underdogs like Mike Rogers in Michigan, Bernie Moreno in Ohio, and Sam Brown in Nevada offer higher payouts for bettors willing to take on more risk. Carefully monitoring shifts in polling, national trends, and key issues will be important as we get closer to election day.