2024 Nobel Prize Odds and Predictions

One of the best entertainment betting markets deals with the Nobel Prize awards, seeing as nobody really has much of a clue who will win each year.

This isn’t exactly the Oscars, so while there are viable favorites, pretty much anyone is fair game. I’d still adhere to the latest Nobel Prize odds at the top online betting sites, but there is definitely some room for targeting added value for wagers such as these.

You’re here for some Nobel Prize predictions, though, so let’s get right to it. Below I’ll go over the latest odds to win both the 2024 Literature Prize, as well as the Nobel Peace Prize.

Nobel Prize Award Odds

2024 Nobel Literature Prize Prediction

• Can Xue +400
• Gerald Murnane +500
• Anne Carson +800
• Lyudmila Ulitskaya +800
• Mircea Cartarescu +800
• Thomas Pynchon +800
• Haruki Murakami +800

These odds are pulled from BetOnline, where there are even more candidates to win the 2024 Literature Prize.

Before you bet on who will win the Literature Prize in 2024, I suggest doing a little research. If you’re not familiar with the award, read up on what it is and who typically wins it. A brief look over recent winner history (below) couldn’t hurt, either.

For 2024, the tentative betting favorite is Can Xue. The 71-year old China native has a story to root for, and has been praised for her avant-garde writing style. She’s been recognized at a high level in the past, with her book “The Last Lover” winning the Best Translated Book Award for fiction in 2015.

In addition, she is a two-time International Booker Prize long-listed writer (2021, 2019). Xue was a top contender last year, so it’s possible she gets the nod after being passed over.

Gerald Murnane has the second best odds (+500), so in what feels like a wide open and relatively unpredictable betting market, he needs to be considered.

Murnane has been writing since the 70s and time may be running out for the 85-year old Aussie to be honored in such regard while he’s still around. He has 13 published books to his name and earned the Prime Minister’s Literary Award in 2018. 

Of course, my favorite pick provides a bit more value. That’s none other than Lyudmila Ulitskaya, who offers a far better price tag than the top favorites at +800. The 81-year old Russian won the Austrian State Prize for European Literature in 2014. 

More recently, she won the 2022 Prix Formentor and the 2020 Siegfried Lenz Prize. She also has a compelling stance on the war between Russia and Ukraine.

One big reason I like Lyudmila Ulitskaya to win is she was the consensus betting favorite when the 2024 Literature Prize odds first dropped earlier this year. Her content has also promoted religious and racial tolerance, as well as explored female roles in society.

There might not be a better voice to praise in this current cultural climate, to be honest.

Something to keep in mind is that someone from a different country seems to win every year. In the last decade, just one winner came from the United States. It was actually none other than famous singer-songwriter Bob Dylan, so you really never know what to expect when it comes to this award.

I think any of the listed options are viable, but if I am betting on who will win the 2024 Literature Prize, I am going after some value. That brings me to previous favorite, Lyudmila Ulitskaya.

Bet: Lyudmila Ulitskaya +800

Most Recent Literature Prize Winners

2024 Nobel Peace Prize Predictions

• Alexei Navalny -200
• Volodymyr Zelensky +800
• Ilham Tohti +1200
• Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya +1200
• International Court of Justice +1200
• Greta Thunberg +1200
• World Health Organization +1200
• European Court for Human Rights +1400

Now that you have my Literature Prize prediction, it’s onto the more prestigious Nobel Prize award. That’d be the Nobel Peace Prize, which is technically intended to go to the person who has done the most work to promote peace between nations.

It’s arguable that hasn’t always been the case when looking back at past Nobel Prize winners, but that debate is for another day. For this post, I am really just concerned with highlighting the most logical bets to win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2024.

Right now the top favorite is Alexei Navalny at -200. His fight against Russia to stop corruption led to his imprisonment and eventual death. 

He survived previous assassination attempts but continued his fight to uncover the corruption at the highest level in Russia.

This would be a posthumous award and somewhat controversial, but no more controversial than his actual death. 

His -200 odds indicate he’s a pretty strong favorite, but there’s always reason to seek out more betting value.

The next closest Nobel Prize candidate is Ukraine leader Volodymyr Zelensky with +800 odds. That is a significant price gap, which may tell us all that we need to know about this particular betting market.

Few have been more impactful in the fight for world peace than Zelensky, who has publicly declined international offers to rescue him from the invasion from Russia. He’s already been honored for his role in attempting to preserve Ukraine and deescalate the current invasion, being named the Time Person of the Year in 2022.

Considering Zelensky’s efforts have already been recognized at a high level, it might make sense to consider someone like Gret Thunberg or an organization such as the International Court of Justice.

Thunberg, the famous climate control activist, pieced together 2022’s The Climate Book and has attended numerous events such as the Glastonbury Festival in an effort to raise awareness. Her commitment to her cause – one that stretches beyond a handful of nations – makes her +1200 betting odds look quite appealing.

Organizations have won the Nobel Peace Prize, too, so betting on the International Court of Justice is also in play.

That said, the odds are speaking to me pretty loudly here. You never know for sure who will win the Nobel Peace Prize, but Alexei Navalny feels like a borderline lock.

He only passed this past February, so the iron is still hot in terms of his lasting impact, the sting of his death, and exactly what he meant to everyone fighting Russia’s corruption.

Bet: Alexei Navalny -200

Most Recent Nobel Peace Prize Winners