Miami Marlins vs Arizona Diamondbacks Picks and Predictions August 19th 2024

D-backs rookie Adrian Del Castillo back home to face Marlins

At 6:40 PM ET, the Diamondbacks and Marlins face off in an NL matchup. This one is taking place at loanDepot Park in Miami, and the Diamondbacks are the heavy favorites on the money line, with their line sitting at -159 compared to the Marlins at +133. The over/under line is currently 7.5 runs.

Edward Cabrera is starting for the Marlins, and he will be facing off against Eduardo Rodriguez. Arizona is currently 3rd in the NL West, and they have a record of 70-56, while the Marlins are 5th in the NL East with a record of 46-79.

Arizona vs. Miami Key Information

• Teams: Diamondbacks at Marlins
• Where: loanDepot Park Miami
• Date: Tuesday, August 20th
• Betting Odds ARI -159 | MIA +133 O/U 7.5

The Diamondbacks Can Win If…

Eduardo Rodriguez will be making his 3rd start of the season for the Diamondbacks, and he will be on the road against the Marlins. In his first start of the season, he picked up a win vs. the Guardians, going 5 2/3 innings and striking out 4. He didn’t factor into the decision in his last start, as he gave up 3 runs in 5 innings vs. the Rockies.

Arizona comes into the game as the top-scoring team in the league, averaging 5.3 runs per contest. They have been even better at home, putting up 5.5 runs per game. The Diamondbacks have been one of the league’s most patient teams at the plate, as they are 4th in walks and have the 2nd best on-base percentage in the league. Arizona’s offense has also been good at avoiding strikeouts, as they are 7th in the league in this category.

Christian Walker and Ketel Marte have been the team’s top power hitters this season, with Marte’s 30 homers leading the team and Walker sitting in 2nd with 23 homers. Walker is also 2nd on the team with 71 RBIs. Over his last six games, Jake McCarthy is hitting .348, and he has driven in five runs over that stretch. Adrian Del Castillo and Corbin Carroll have both struggled of late, with batting averages of .222 and .227, respectively.

• The Diamondbacks are 7-3 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Diamondbacks are 2-3 vs. the run line.
• Arizona has an over/under record of 6-2-2 in their last ten games.
• The Diamondbacks have an average of 6.4 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten road games, the Diamondbacks are 6-4
• Looking back across the Diamondbacks last five games as the favorite, they are 2-3
• Arizona has gone 3-0 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Diamondbacks have averaged 5.7 runs per game on offense

The Marlins Can Win If…

Edward Cabrera will be looking to bounce back from a rough outing as he gets the start for the Marlins today. Against the Phillies on August 14th, he got the start and took the loss, giving up six earned runs in four innings of work. Looking back over his last three outings, Cabrera has finished with a no-decision, a win, and a loss. His ERA for the season is 5.76, along with a record of 2-4. Opposing batters are hitting .227 off Cabrera this season. So far, he has made 13 appearances and two of them have been quality starts.

As a team, the Marlins are averaging just 3.7 runs per game, which is the worst mark in the league. They are also near the bottom of the league in most other offensive categories, including on-base percentage, slugging, and OPS. Miami’s team ISO of .128 is also 24th in the MLB. One thing that has gone well for the Marlins offense is that they are 10th in the league in batting average on balls in play.

Jake Burger has been swinging a hot bat for the Marlins, going 10/32 in his last eight games with four homers. For the season, he is hitting .248 with a team-high 55 RBIs and 24 homers. Jesús Sánchez is also near the top of the Marlins’ home run leaderboard, with 15 homers, but he is batting just .238 for the season.

• The Marlins are 3-7 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Marlins are 1-4 vs. the run line.
• Miami has an over/under record of 6-4 in their last ten games.
• The Marlins have an average of 3.4 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten home games, the Marlins are 5-5
• Looking back across the Marlins last five games as the favorite, they are 4-1
• Miami has gone 1-2 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Marlins have averaged 3.8 runs per game on offense

The Lean

Today’s Diamondbacks and Marlins game should feature plenty of offense, as this is projected to be the 9th highest-scoring game of today’s league slate. For an over/under pick, we would be leaning towards the over. As for who is going to take this one straight up, we like the Diamondbacks to come out on top. Arizona starter Eduardo Rodriguez is 7th among today’s starters in projected strikeouts.

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Adrian Del Castillo, a former standout at the University of Miami, will experience a homecoming on Monday as the Arizona Diamondbacks kick off a three-game series against the Miami Marlins. Del Castillo, who made his MLB debut on August 7, has quickly taken on the role of starting catcher for the Diamondbacks, stepping in after Gabriel Moreno was sidelined with a left groin injury.

Early Impact in the Majors

Del Castillo wasted no time making his mark in the big leagues. In his very first MLB at-bat, he hit an RBI double, setting the tone for what has been an impressive start. His second game was even more memorable, as he blasted a walk-off home run, becoming the first Diamondbacks player to hit a walk-off homer for his first major league home run.

Drafted in the second round by the Diamondbacks in 2021, Del Castillo’s rapid rise is no surprise. He dominated at Triple-A this year, posting a .319 batting average with 24 home runs, 86 runs, and 70 RBIs over 100 games. His seamless transition to the majors is evidenced by his stellar performance in his first three games with Arizona, going 7-for-12 with two doubles, one home run, and five RBIs.

Working with Familiar Faces

As he settles into his role with the Diamondbacks, Del Castillo finds himself working alongside a pitching staff that includes three former Marlins: starter Zac Gallen and relievers A.J. Puk and Dylan Floro. This connection adds an intriguing dynamic as Del Castillo returns to Miami, where he first made a name for himself as a college star.

Team Comparisons: D-Backs vs. Marlins

Heading into the series, both teams bring distinct strengths and weaknesses. The Diamondbacks’ pitching staff, while not among the elite, ranks 25th in the majors with a 4.46 ERA—slightly better than the Marlins, who sit at 28th with a 4.59 ERA. Miami’s bullpen, however, edges out Arizona’s, with a 3.92 ERA compared to the Diamondbacks’ 4.14.

Offensively, Arizona holds a significant advantage. The Diamondbacks have been one of the most potent offenses in the league, leading the majors with 656 runs scored. The Marlins, in stark contrast, have struggled mightily at the plate, ranking 29th with just 456 runs.

Marlins Riding High on Defense

The Marlins enter the series on a high note after a dramatic 3-2 win over the New York Mets on Sunday. Miami’s victory was highlighted by stellar defensive plays, including a rare double play that began with a catch in deep center field by Derek Hill and ended with a play at the plate, preventing the Mets from scoring a crucial run. This defensive prowess could prove crucial against a high-powered Diamondbacks lineup.

Diamondbacks Show Resilience Despite Setbacks

Despite dropping three straight games to the Tampa Bay Rays, including a 12-inning marathon on Sunday, the Diamondbacks have been in excellent form overall. Prior to the Rays series, Arizona had won nine consecutive series and posted a 30-10 record over their last 40 games. Even in defeat, the D-backs showed their fighting spirit, clawing back from a 6-0 deficit to tie the game in the ninth inning, thanks in part to a clutch three-run homer by Del Castillo.

What’s at Stake

For Adrian Del Castillo, the series against the Marlins is more than just another set of games—it’s an opportunity to shine in front of his hometown crowd and continue his impressive start in the majors. For the Diamondbacks, it’s a chance to get back on track after a tough series loss and maintain their momentum in a tightly contested playoff race.

As the Diamondbacks and Marlins prepare to face off, all eyes will be on Del Castillo, whose early success has made him a player to watch. With the emotional backdrop of his Miami homecoming and the high stakes of the series, Del Castillo’s performance could be pivotal in determining the outcome.

Conclusion

Adrian Del Castillo’s return to Miami is more than a homecoming—it’s a proving ground for the rookie who has quickly become a key figure for the Arizona Diamondbacks. As he steps onto the field in Miami, Del Castillo brings with him the momentum of his early successes and the support of a team that has shown resilience in the face of adversity. Whether it’s his continued offensive contributions or his work with a pitching staff full of familiar faces, Del Castillo is poised to make his mark once again, this time on the field where his journey first began.