2024 BMW Championship Odds and Predictions

The 2024 BMW Championship is shaping up to be one of the most exciting golf events of the year. The FedEx St. Jude Championship last week proved to be a thriller, as Hideki Matsuyama ultimately staved off challenges from Xander Schauffele and Viktor Hovland to win it.

The field has been whittled from 70 players to 50 this week ahead of the BMW Championship, which is the second leg of the FedEx Cup Playoffs. With a decorated field of elite players, bettors are already analyzing the odds to try and make the most informed picks. Why do the hard work yourself when you have us here to guide you to a profitable weekend of golf betting?

Below is a detailed breakdown of the odds, strategies, and best bets for the 2024 BMW Championship tournament.

Where is the BMW Championship?

The 2024 BMW Championship will take place at Castle Pines Golf Club in Castle Rock, Colorado, just outside of Denver. This prestigious private venue has a rich history in golf, though it’s been quite some time since it hosted a PGA event. The last time the PGA Tour swung through Castle Pines was back in 2006 at The International. The course originally hosted this tournament starting in 1986. Jason Day is the only player in the 2024 BMW Championship field who played in that 2006 tournament.

This course is located about 6,000 feet above sea level, which will affect play. The ball flies further at higher altitudes, which will be a fascinating additional element to consider when you place your bets. The course is carved through dense pine forests and features dramatic elevation changes, pristine fairways, and fast, undulating greens.

2024 BMW Championship Odds

The attached chart lists three types of odds for each player:

• Odds to Win: How much a bettor stands to gain if the player wins the tournament outright.
• Odds to Finish Top 5: The potential payout if the player finishes in the top five positions.
• Odds to Finish Top 10: The payout for placing in the top ten.

BMW Championship Favorites and Best Bets

The following golfers are considered the odds-on favorites to win the 2024 BMW Championship:

Scottie Scheffler

• Odds to Win: +330
• Odds to Finish Top 5: -165
• Odds to Finish Top 10: -400

As is the case every week these days, Scottie Scheffler is the heavy favorite to win the BMW Championship. His odds of +330 to win reflect his dominance on the tour over the last year. While betting on him to win outright could be lucrative, the real value lies in the more conservative bets. His odds of -165 to finish in the top 5 suggest oddsmakers expect him to be a lock for a high finish, so this may be the best balance of risk and reward.

Scheffler “only” finished fourth at last week’s FedEx St. Jude Championship with a score of 14-under. That put him 3 strokes behind Matsuyama, though he’s still dominating the field in terms of overall FedEx Cup standings. Scheffler’s 6,533 points this season put him a whopping 1,496 ahead of the second-place Schauffele.

Scheffler to finish in the top 5 at -165 offers good value for those looking for a safer bet with a decent chance of success.

Xander Schauffele

• Odds to Win: +550
• Odds to Finish Top 5: +110
• Odds to Finish Top 10: -225

Xander Schauffele enters the BMW Championship in terrific form after finishing tied for second last week and two strokes beyond Matsuyama. Like Scheffler, Schauffele is seemingly in the running to win just about every week, which naturally makes him a strong contender at the BMW Championship.

Schauffele’s +550 odds to win suggest he’s one of the favorites, but the better value may be in betting on him to finish in the top 5. At +110, Schauffele’s top 5 odds offer a positive return and are an attractive proposition given his consistency. Schauffele picked up the first two major victories of his career earlier this season when he won the PGA Championship in May and The Open Championship just last month.

Schauffele to wind up in the top 5 at +110 is a solid choice if you’re in the market for a middle-ground option between risk and reward.

Rory McIlroy

• Odds to Win: +1200
• Odds to Finish Top 5: +220
• Odds to Finish Top 10: -105

Rory McIlroy checks in with the third-best odds to win the BMW Championship at +1200.

McIlroy is one of the most consistent presences on the PGA Tour, and he’s arguably the most recognizable face in men’s golf outside of Tiger Woods. That said, it’s been quite a while since McIlroy tasted major glory. The Northern Ireland native last won a major back in 2014 at The Open Championship. He’s come close in the decade since, but another major title has proven to be elusive.

Rory’s +1200 odds to win outright could make him a tempting long shot, but the smart money may be on him placing in the top 10 at -105 or the top 5 at +220. McIlroy was third in the FedEx Cup standings entering last week’s event, but a calamitous 68th-place showing sent him tumbling to fifth in the season-long table.

McIlroy’s odds to bounce back with a victory this week are attractive for those willing to take on more risk, especially given his track record in big events. McIlroy to finish in the top 10 at -105 is my favorite bet on the board given the combination of risk with solid potential.

For bettors with a bit more risk tolerance, his top 5 odds at +220 are also appealing.

Collin Morikawa

• Odds to Win: +1400
• Odds to Finish Top 5: +250
• Odds to Finish Top 10: +105

Collin Morikawa is known for his ball-striking and has already proven himself on the biggest stages. His odds of +1400 to win outright are tempting for those looking for a player who can surprise the field. His more conservative odds to finish in the top 10 at +105 also offer positive value with less risk.

Morikawa is currently fourth in the FedEx Cup standings after a tie for 22nd last week at the St. Jude Championship. That was Morikawa’s worst PGA Tour finish since falling into a tie for 75th at the Valero Texas Open way back in April. Since then, Morikawa had carded 10 consecutive top-20 outings, including four finishes inside the top 10.

Given his remarkable consistency, it’s hard to imagine him finishing that poorly for a second straight week. I like him to bounce back in a big way. Morikawa to finish in the top 10 at +105 offers solid potential for a return with a higher chance of success.

Viktor Hovland

• Odds to Win: +1800
• Odds to Finish Top 5: +300
• Odds to Finish Top 10: +130

Viktor Hovland continues to rise in the ranks of golf’s elite, and his +1800 odds to win are enticing for bettors looking for a sleeper pick. However, his +130 odds to finish in the top 10 present a safer option with a decent payout. Hovland’s form has been improving, and he has the game to succeed at a tough course like the one at the BMW Championship.

As mentioned, Hovland took a second-place finish last week in the first leg of the FedEx Cup Playoffs. He’s only 16th in the FedEx Cup standings for the season, but the fact that he’s among the favorites to win this week shows he’s likely been underperforming for most of the campaign.

Hovland’s lack of consistency is a concern. While he finished an impressive third at the PGA Championship, the young Norway native managed to miss the cut at each of the season’s other three majors.

Hovland to finish in the top 10 at +130 offers a low-risk option with promising profit potential.

BMW Championship Long Shot Bets

The following golfers are worth fliers as longshots to win the 2024 BMW Championship:

Ludvig Aberg

• Odds to Win: +2000
• Odds to Finish Top 5: +350
• Odds to Finish Top 10: +140

Ludvig Aberg is another rising star on the PGA Tour. The Swede’s +2000 odds to win this week could deliver a huge payout if you believe enough in his ultimate potential. Aberg’s odds to finish in the top 5 and top 10 are more conservative, and with a solid performance, he could easily find himself near the top of the leaderboard.

Aberg is seventh in the FedEx Cup points standings for the season, which is a remarkable accomplishment for a player in just his second professional campaign. He finished 135th as a rookie last term. Aberg took a tie for 40th last week at the St. Jude Championship.

Betting on Aberg to finish in the top 10 at +140 offers a good mix of value and a reasonable chance of success.

Tony Finau

• Odds to Win: +3000
• Odds to Finish Top 5: +450
• Odds to Finish Top 10: +200

Tony Finau has shown flashes of brilliance throughout his career and has routinely been competitive in big tournaments. At +3000 to win this week, he looks like a great value as a long-shot pick. His top 10 odds at +200 also offer appealing upside.

Finau ranks 14th in FedEx Cup points on the year after a tie for 16th in last week’s event. Finau disappointingly missed the cut at The Open in July. If you exclude that weirdly poor showing, he’s finished inside the top 20 at each start since the Wells Fargo Championship way back in May. That includes a trio of top 10 finishes.

Taking a flier on Finau to finish in the top 10 at +200 provides a high-potential return with negligible risk.

Who Will Win the BMW Championship?

Betting on the winner of the BWM Championship offers the most upside, but you’re also less likely to hit with just one player ultimately taking home the title. On the flip side, there’s often more value in betting on top 5 and top 10 finishes, especially with elite players who consistently perform well.

For a safer play, Scottie Scheffler to finish in the top 5 at -165 offers a good likelihood of hitting. I also love the value in Xander Schauffele at +110 to finish in the top 5, or Rory McIlroy at -105 to finish in the top 10. These are all great bets, and I like the idea of combining them into some parlays in order to boost my potential payout. And for those willing to take on more risk for a larger payout, Viktor Hovland or Tony Finau in the top 10 are compelling choices.

I picked Schauffele to win last week and came up just short. This week, I’ll go back to the well with Scheffler to win it at +330.

Best Bet: Scottie Scheffler (+330)