Seattle Mariners vs Tampa Bay Rays Picks and Predictions August 26th 2024

Mariners embracing small-ball tactics ahead of opener vs. Rays

From T-Mobile Park in Seattle, we have the Rays and Mariners facing off in an AL matchup. This one gets started at 9:40 PM ET and is being televised by BSSUN. The money line odds have the Mariners at -123 compared to the Rays at +104. The over/under line is sitting at 7 runs.

Seattle comes in with a record of 66-65, while the Rays are 65-65. Ryan Pepiot is starting for the Rays, and he will be facing off against Bryce Miller. The Mariners are 2nd in the AL West, while the Rays are 4th in the AL East.

Tampa Bay vs. Seattle Key Information

• Teams: Rays at Mariners
• Where: T-Mobile Park Seattle
• Date: Monday, August 26th
• Betting Odds SEA -123 | TB +104 O/U 7

The Rays Can Win If…

Ryan Pepiot will be looking to build off his last outing, where he faced the Athletics and picked up the win. In that outing, he went 6 innings and gave up 2 earned runs on 3 hits. Looking at his overall numbers, Pepiot has made 19 starts and has a record of 7-5. His ERA for the season is 3.65, along with a WHIP of 1.06. Opposing batters are hitting .197 off Pepiot this season. The right-hander has made seven appearances on the road, going 4-2 with a 3.86 ERA.

So far this season, the Rays are averaging just 3.9 runs per game, which is the worst mark in the league. They have been slightly better on the road (4.1 RPG) than at home (3.7 RPG). As a team, they are batting just .231, and their collective on-base percentage of .307 is also below the league average.

Yandy Diaz comes into the game with a team-high 56 RBIs and is batting .273 for the season. Christopher Morel has struggled with a batting average of just .196, but he does have 21 home runs, which is 14th in the MLB. Morel also has the 2nd most RBIs on the team, with 55. Jose Siri and Brandon Lowe are also near the top of the Rays’ home run leaderboard, but both players have struggled to hit for average this season.

• The Rays are 6-4 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Rays are 2-3 vs. the run line.
• Tampa Bay has an over/under record of 4-5-1 in their last ten games.
• The Rays have an average of 3.6 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten road games, the Rays are 4-6
• Looking back across the Rays last five games as the favorite, they are 2-3
• Tampa Bay has gone 1-2 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Rays have averaged 3.0 runs per game on offense

The Mariners Can Win If…

Seattle is sending right-hander Bryce Miller to the mound today vs. the Rays. He has made 25 starts this season and has a record of 9-7 with an ERA of 3.32. Miller’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.02. In his 25 starts, he has turned in 13 quality starts and is averaging 8.33 strikeouts per nine innings. Miller most recently faced the Dodgers, where he finished with a no-decision, giving up two earned runs in four innings of work. Before that outing, he had won two straight starts.

Over the past nine games, Leo Rivas has gone 10/27 for the Mariners, and Luke Raley has also been swinging a hot bat, going 7/23 with two homers in that stretch. Raley’s two homers are tied with Randy Arozarena and Luke Raley for the 2nd most on the team, with Cal Raleigh leading the way with 27 homers and 79 RBIs, which is the top mark in the league.

As a team, the Mariners are batting just .216, which is the worst mark in the league. They are also near the bottom of the league in runs per game, on-base percentage, and slugging. Overall, they are 14th in home runs but are averaging just 3.9 runs per contest.

• The Mariners are 3-7 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Mariners are 1-4 vs. the run line.
• Seattle has an over/under record of 6-2-2 in their last ten games.
• The Mariners have an average of 4.0 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten home games, the Mariners are 1-9
• Looking back across the Mariners last five games as the favorite, they are 3-2
• Seattle has gone 0-3 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Mariners have averaged 2.8 runs per game on offense

The Lean

Look for the Mariners to come out on top as they host the Rays today, and we are leaning towards taking them on the money line. We have this as the 6th highest-scoring game of the day, and our lean would be towards the over. Today, we have Bryce Miller as the 5th best strikeout option compared to Ryan Pepiot (6th).

The Seattle Mariners have ushered in a new era under the leadership of recently appointed manager Dan Wilson, who has already made a noticeable impact on the team’s strategy. Gone are the days of waiting for a three-run homer to turn the tide; instead, the Mariners are now leaning into small-ball tactics—a strategic approach that emphasizes manufacturing runs through bunts, stolen bases, and advancing runners rather than relying solely on power hitting.

A Winning Formula: Mariners’ Success with Small-Ball

In Wilson’s first series in charge, the Mariners showcased the effectiveness of this new approach by defeating the visiting San Francisco Giants 4-3 on Sunday, taking two of the three games in the interleague series. The Mariners’ commitment to small-ball was evident as they stole five bases and executed a sacrifice bunt, key moves that contributed to their victory.

“We did what we had to do today and grinded out a ‘W,’ and that’s big,” said Wilson, reflecting on the game. The Mariners’ record improved to an impressive 53-11 when scoring at least four runs, a testament to the potential of their new strategy.

Team Buy-In: Players Embrace the New Approach

Even power hitters like catcher Cal Raleigh, who leads the team with 27 home runs and 79 RBIs, have embraced Wilson’s small-ball tactics. Raleigh praised the strategy, emphasizing that creating offense isn’t limited to home runs and doubles but includes bunting, base running, and putting pressure on the opposing defense.

“It’s little things like that that win games,” Raleigh said. “Whether it’s bunting, base running … it’s always good when you’re creating offense, and it’s not always necessarily home runs or doubles in the gap. That is offense as well, and it puts pressure on the defense, and it worked out for us on Sunday.”

The shift in strategy also saw Dylan Moore moved into the leadoff spot after Luke Raley was scratched due to flu-like symptoms. Moore excelled in his new role, contributing with a hit, a run, two walks, and three stolen bases. His performance set the tone early in the game, showcasing the advantages of being aggressive on the bases.

“It sets the tone early in a game, and we’re able to swipe a couple of bags, get ourselves out of a double play and into scoring position,” Wilson commented. “I thought it made a statement early. These guys were aggressive, and I loved it.”

Pitching Prowess: Bryan Woo’s Strong Outing

In addition to the offensive shift, the Mariners benefitted from a solid pitching performance by right-hander Bryan Woo, who allowed only two runs over seven innings. Woo, who grew up rooting for the Giants in the Bay Area, delivered a clutch performance against his childhood team, earning the victory and demonstrating his potential to be a key player in the Mariners’ rotation.

“He’s got all the talent in the world; (he’s) really, really special,” Raleigh said of Woo, who improved to 6-2 on the season.

Upcoming Challenge: Mariners Set to Face the Rays

The Mariners now turn their attention to a critical three-game series against the Tampa Bay Rays, starting Monday night in Seattle. The series opener is slated to feature a pitching duel between two right-handers: Bryce Miller for the Mariners and Ryan Pepiot for the Rays.

Miller, who has been unbeaten over his last eight starts, holds a 9-7 record with a 3.32 ERA. However, he has struggled in his previous encounters with the Rays, going 0-1 with a 7.56 ERA in two career starts against them. Despite this, his recent form suggests he could be a key factor in the Mariners’ success in the series.

On the other side, Pepiot has been solid for the Rays, boasting a 7-5 record with a 3.65 ERA. He is 3-0 over his past four starts and had a strong outing against the Mariners in June, allowing just one run on one hit over 5 1/3 innings while striking out eight.

Rays’ Recent Performance: A Formidable Foe

The Rays, despite losing 3-1 to the Los Angeles Dodgers on Sunday, remain a formidable opponent. In that game, lefty Jacob Lopez, called up from Triple-A Durham, delivered a strong performance, allowing just two hits and one run over five innings. Rays manager Kevin Cash praised Lopez’s outing, noting his confidence and rhythm on the mound.

“He was outstanding. I was happy for him,” Cash said. “He got in a good spot, had a good rhythm and pitched with confidence.”

As the Mariners prepare to face the Rays, they will need to continue their aggressive, small-ball approach while relying on solid pitching performances to secure victories against a tough opponent.

Conclusion: Mariners’ New Strategy Offers Hope

The Seattle Mariners’ embrace of small-ball tactics under Dan Wilson’s leadership represents a significant shift in strategy that has already shown positive results. With key players buying into the new approach and solid pitching performances backing them up, the Mariners are poised to make a strong push as they face off against the Tampa Bay Rays in a pivotal series. As the season progresses, this blend of strategic innovation and player adaptability could be the key to the Mariners’ success.

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