St. Louis Cardinals vs San Diego Padres Picks and Predictions August 26th 2024

Jackson Merrill, Padres look to pick up steam vs. Cards

At 7:45 PM ET, the Padres and Cardinals will face off in an NL matchup. This one is taking place at Busch Stadium in St. Louis, and the Cardinals are the slight favorite on the money line, with their odds sitting at -110 compared to the Padres at -109. The over/under line is currently 9.5 runs.

San Diego will be looking for a win to keep pace with the Giants and Dodgers in the NL West. They are currently 3rd in the division with a record of 74-58. As for the Cardinals, they are 2nd in the NL Central at 65-65. Monday’s forecast in St. Louis calls for broken clouds and temperatures near 100 degrees.

San Diego vs. St. Louis Key Information

• Teams: Padres at Cardinals
• Where: Busch Stadium St. Louis
• Date: Monday, August 26th
• Betting Odds STL -110 | SD -109 O/U 9.5

The Padres Can Win If…

Randy Vásquez gets the start for the Padres today as he faces the Cardinals on the road. So far this season, he has made 17 starts and has a record of 3-6 with an ERA of 4.63. Vásquez’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.51. In his 17 starts, he has turned in four quality starts and is averaging 5.84 strikeouts per nine innings. Vásquez most recently pitched on August 8th, where he finished with a no-decision, giving up three earned runs in 5 2/3 innings of work. He has not lost back-to-back starts since June.

So far this season, the Padres have been the league’s best hitting team, with a team batting average of .265. They are also the top home run hitting team in the league and have the best slugging percentage in the league. Overall, they are averaging 4.7 runs per game, which is 11th in the league. The Padres have been even better on the road, averaging 5 runs per contest.

Jurickson Profar has been a key part of the Padres offense this season, leading the team with 21 homers and 79 RBIs, while batting .291. Manny Machado is also a significant power threat, as he has 20 homers and 74 RBIs. Over the team’s last six games, Profar has gone 7/23 with two homers and six RBIs, while Jackson Merrill has also hit two homers in this stretch, going 6/23.

• The Padres are 5-5 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Padres are 1-4 vs. the run line.
• San Diego has an over/under record of 6-4 in their last ten games.
• The Padres have an average of 3.6 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten road games, the Padres are 6-4
• Looking back across the Padres last five games as the favorite, they are 2-3
• San Diego has gone 2-1 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Padres have averaged 6.2 runs per game on offense

The Cardinals Can Win If…

St. Louis is sending right-hander Kyle Gibson to the mound today vs. the Padres. He has made 24 starts this year and has a record of 7-5 with an ERA of 4.22. Looking at his overall numbers, Gibson has a WHIP of 1.36 and has issued 3.43 walks per nine innings compared to 8.32 strikeouts. Gibson has made 10 quality starts this year and is coming off an outing in which he finished with a no-decision. In that start vs. the Brewers, he went 5 1/3 innings, giving up two earned runs, and two homers. One of those homers came in the first inning. Before that outing, he had given up a homer in three straight starts.

Currently, the Cardinals are averaging 4.1 runs per game, which is 24th in the league. At home, they have been slightly better, averaging 4.3 runs per game. As a team, they are batting .245, which is 10th in the league, and have the 10th fewest strikeouts in the league. St. Louis has been good at putting the ball in play, as they have the 10th best BABIP in the MLB.

Right fielder Alec Burleson has been the Cardinals’ best power threat this season, as his 21 homers are the most on the team and 14th in the league. He is also the team’s leading run producer, with 70 RBIs. Nolan Arenado has been swinging a hot bat of late, going 11/33 in his last eight games, with two homers and six RBIs. For the season, he is batting .273 with 14 homers.

• The Cardinals are 5-5 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Cardinals are 4-1 vs. the run line.
• St. Louis has an over/under record of 3-7 in their last ten games.
• The Cardinals have an average of 4.4 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten home games, the Cardinals are 4-6
• Looking back across the Cardinals last five games as the favorite, they are 1-4
• St. Louis has gone 2-1 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Cardinals have averaged 3.1 runs per game on offense

The Lean

Today’s matchup between the Padres and Cardinals has the 2nd highest combined runs projection and 2nd highest total hits projection. Our lean would be to the over, and for a play on the money line, we would be leaning towards the Padres to pick up the win. Looking at today’s starters, Randy Vásquez has the 4th best odds to earn the win, while Kyle Gibson has the 2nd worst strikeout projection among today’s starters.

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Mike Shildt, in his first season as the San Diego Padres’ manager, returns to St. Louis at a pivotal time for both his current team and his former franchise. As the Padres battle for a National League playoff spot, the significance of Shildt’s return to Busch Stadium cannot be overstated.

The Padres, who currently hold the NL’s second wild-card position, are looking to solidify their playoff aspirations as they begin a four-game series against the St. Louis Cardinals on Monday night. Meanwhile, the Cardinals have been surging, winning consecutive series for the first time since early July, and are eager to continue their climb in the standings.

Padres Seek to Build Consistency

After reaching a season-high 16 games over .500 on August 14, the Padres have played .500 ball over their last ten games, going 5-5. They recently split a four-game series with the New York Mets, indicating both their potential and areas needing improvement as the season winds down.

Shildt’s squad will rely heavily on rising star Jackson Merrill, who delivered a walk-off homer in Sunday’s 3-2 win against the Mets. Merrill has been a clutch performer, hitting .583 in high-pressure ninth-inning situations this season. His ability to stay composed under pressure has been a cornerstone of the Padres’ success in tight games.

“He’s got this wonderful ability to slow the game down in bigger moments, allow his unbelievable ability to play,” Shildt remarked. “Jackson competes with a focused mindset, always looking to gain the upper hand.”

Cardinals Eyeing a Playoff Push

The Cardinals have also found their stride, winning four of their last five games, including a come-from-behind victory against the Minnesota Twins on Sunday. Lars Nootbaar’s decisive two-run single in the ninth inning sealed the win, showcasing the Cardinals’ resilience and determination as they fight to get back into the playoff race.

St. Louis has clawed back to a .500 record and is now within five games of the Atlanta Braves for the final NL wild-card spot. The Cardinals’ recent form, particularly on the road, has renewed hope in their postseason chances.

“We’re playing pretty good ball right now,” Nootbaar said to Bally Sports Midwest. “We have a tough stretch ahead, but it’s in our hands. If we can win games and series like this, it’ll be huge for us.”

With key players like catcher Willson Contreras sidelined by injury, the Cardinals will need continued contributions from players like Nootbaar and Pedro Pages, who has batted .320 since the All-Star break. Nolan Arenado has also been a steady presence, hitting .318 in August with an .845 OPS.

Key Pitching Matchup: Vasquez vs. Gibson

On the mound, Randy Vasquez (3-6, 4.63 ERA) will start for the Padres, replacing Matt Waldron, who was optioned to Triple-A after a tough outing. Vasquez, 25, is still in the early stages of his MLB career and will be facing the Cardinals for the first time. His ability to handle the pressure of a playoff race will be closely watched.

For the Cardinals, Kyle Gibson (7-5, 4.22 ERA) will get the start. Gibson has been solid, allowing just two runs on seven hits in his last outing against the Milwaukee Brewers. He also has a successful track record against the Padres, holding a 3-1 record with a 3.93 ERA in six career starts against them, including a strong performance in a 6-2 victory earlier this season.

Series Outlook

This four-game series carries significant weight for both teams. The Padres are looking to maintain their playoff positioning, while the Cardinals are fighting to keep their postseason hopes alive. The outcome of this series could have a lasting impact on the National League playoff race, making it a must-watch for baseball fans.

With Shildt’s return to St. Louis adding an extra layer of intrigue, all eyes will be on Busch Stadium as these two teams battle it out. The combination of young stars like Jackson Merrill and seasoned veterans like Nolan Arenado ensures that this series will be competitive and compelling.