2024 MTV Video Music Awards Odds and Predictions

The 2024 MTV Video Music Awards are almost here. The show goes live on September 11th at 8 pm ET and that’s potentially just the start of the party.

You could win big by betting on who wins, after all. That’s right, some online betting sites have offered 2024 MTV Video Music Awards odds for certain categories.

Think you know how it’ll all go down? Need some help getting nudged in the right direction? I’ll offer my personal MTV VMAs predictions and dissect the latest pricing for this huge event.

When Are the 2024 MTV Awards?

The 2024 MTV Video Music Awards fire off on Wednesday, September 11th, 2024 at 8 pm ET. If you want to bet on who will win the top awards, you’re obviously running out of time.

The awards will be by MTV, per usual. Fortunately, you do still have a little time to formulate your bets, and there are a few sites offering wagers.

2024 MTV VMAs Odds

2024 MTV VMAs Predictions

Ready to bet on the MTV Awards? I’ve got a prediction and breakdown for every single one.

Odds for 2024 Video of the Year

• Taylor Swift featuring Post Malone – Fortnight -250
• Ariana Grande – We Can’t Be Friends (Wait for Your Love) +200
• Eminem – Houdini +550
• Billie Eilish – Lunch +750
• Doja Cat – Paint the Town Red +1000
• SZA – Snooze +1400

Say what you will about Taylor Swift – and there’s a lot to say – but she makes good catchy, catchy music. Well, it’s certainly at least catchy.

But seriously, she made a pretty somber, relatable track, she got Post Malone to put his hands on it, and then she produced and directed a visually appealing music video.

Swift and Malone are the obvious favorites to win the MTV VMA award for Video of the Year, and I don’t think it’s all that close.

It’s a bit crazy to think Swift is about to three-peat this thing, but that’s the reality. She won in each of the past two years for Anti-Hero and All Too Well: The Short Film, and she also won in 2019 and 2015.

Swift’s popularity and artistry knows no bounds.

I do think there’s some value on the board to at least consider. Ariana Grande’s a huge name and We Can’t Be Friends was a catchy song, but the music video wasn’t quite up to par with Swift’s.

The same can be said for Eminem’s Houdini, while Billie Eilish did a whole lot of nothing in her music video for Lunch.

To be frank, the only video I’d bet on outside of Swift’s is Snooze by SZA. That video wasn’t groundbreaking, though, so that bet would be a pure price play.

All things told, Swift is set up to clean up at the 2024 MTV Awards. She feels like a lock to win Video of the Year, which arguably makes these -250 odds a considerable steal.

Bet: Taylor Swift featuring Post Malone - Fortnight -250

Odds for Who Will Win Artist of the Year

• Taylor Swift -300
• Sabrina Carpenter +300
• Ariana Grande +600
• Eminem +700
• SZA +800
• Bad Bunny +1000

I will try not to sound like a broken record moving forward, but Taylor Swift isn’t just in the running for a ton of MTV VMAs this year; she’s the clear favorite.

Make that heavy favorite to win Artist of the Year, an honor she’s weirdly only enjoyed once before. Swift finally took home the win in 2023, but she has a real shot at back-to-back wins in this category.

I do think this could be a spot where bettors seek out some value, though, simply because 1. The field is loaded with viable candidates and 2. We’ve never seen a repeat winner.

Not only has nobody won the MTV Artist of the Year award in consecutive years, but no performer has claimed it more than once – ever.

Swift would make sense as the one to buck the trend. However, Grande and Bad Bunny are former winners who are live to get that honor, too. If MTV wants to crown someone new, then we should pay serious mind to Sabrina Carpenter, Eminem, and SZA.

SZA is a blossoming star that we should pay attention to, Eminem is an aging star who could be looking at his swan song in real time, and then Carpenter is another ascending artist.

It goes against history, but Swift feels like the play here. She’s set to break Beyonce’s MTV VMAs wins record and this is probably going to be part of that.

Bet: Taylor Swift -300

Odds for Song of the Year at the 2024 MTV VMAs

• Taylor Swift featuring Post Malone – Fortnight +125
• Sabrina Carpenter – Espresso +150
• Beyonce – Texas Hold’Em +325
• Kendrick Lamar – Not Like Us +400
• Teddy Swims – Lose Control +600
• Jack Harlow – Lovin on Me +700

Taylor Swift is the easy call once again, especially when you can get her at plus money for mega hit, Fortnight. This +125 price is to die for, so the only real issue is making sure there isn’t a serious threat to it.

Considering the amount of categories Fortnight is live to contend (and likely win) in, it would be pretty shocking at this point if it didn’t take home Song of the Year.

The Song of the Year odds are not that straightforward, though. If they were, we’d see Swift and Post Malone favored at -200 or much better.

Due to that, bettors should at least give Espresso a look here. It’s important to remember that Song of the Year isn’t necessarily just about the best video, so Swift’s song is not technically a lock.

Billboard ranked Espresso #1 for 2024, after all.

You also have Beyonce, who has to always be taken seriously. Still, this feels like Swift’s year. She can’t possibly sweep this entire event clean, but I won’t be shocked if she comes awfully close.

Bet: Taylor Swift featuring Post Malone - Fortnight +125

Odds to Win Best New Artist

• Chappell Roan -125
• Benson Boone +220
• Tyla +450
• Gracie Abrams +600
• Teddy Swims +700
• Shaboozey +900

Finally, a betting market for the 2024 MTV VMAs where we can’t back Taylor Swift to win. It should be super obvious who to bet on, right?

Wrong.

While Chappell Roan is the current favorite and a deserving one, this field is actually pretty stacked. Roan is here thanks to YouTube to some degree, but she really blew up in 2024 after opening for Olivia Rodrigo’s Guts World Tour.

From there, Roan performed on late shows and even landed a spot at Coachella. Her song Red Wine Supernova is also nominated for Push Performance of the Year, and it’s undeniable how rapidly her star has risen.

She is a deserving favorite, but Benson Boone has also made serious waves and Teddy Swims was on Billboard’s Top 50 list. Shaboozey may be the most compelling bet, though, as he has crazy odds for someone who had a hit go #1 for seven weeks.

I think this is a good MTV VMAs betting market to sprinkle some extra bets – namely Shaboozey – but there is a force with Roan that can’t be denied.

Bet: Chappell Roan -125

Odds for Best Collaboration of the Year

• Taylor Swift featuring Post Malone – Fortnight -250
• Jung Kook featuring Latto – Seven +250
• Drake featuring Sexxy Red & SZA – Rich Baby Daddy +500
• Post Malone featuring Morgan Wallen – I Had Some Help +600
• GloRilla & Megan Thee Stallion – Wanna Be +900
• Jessie Murph featuring Jelly Roll – Wild Ones +1000

Two things can be true. First, this is an absurd list of elite songwriters and performers collaborating on some majestic tracks. Second, that Swift/Malone feel like a lock to win yet again.

I just don’t see a world where Fortnight gets all of this positive heat, only to fizzle out at the MTV Awards. If Fortnight is going to win everywhere else I am predicting it to, it feels weird for it to come up short in this category.

In the interest of playing devil’s advocate, a big reason Swift’s song did so well was the presence of Malone. He teamed up with Morgan Wallen to produce another massive hit and that song has a +600 price.

That said, Fortnight dominated this past year and it’s probably going to be the top song across the board at the Video Music Awards.

Bet: Taylor Swift featuring Post Malone - Fortnight -250

Betting Odds for Best Direction in 2024

• Taylor Swift featuring Post Malone – Fortnight -250
• Ariana Grande – We Can’t Be Friends (Wait for Your Love) +250
• Eminem – Houdini +400
• Sabrina Carpenter – Please Please Please +600
• Megan Thee Stallion – Boa +900
• Bleachers – Tiny Moves +1000

Best direction ties to Video of the Year, so I find it hard to break away from Fortnight here. I also keep wanting to write Fortnite, for what it’s worth.

Grande and Eminem are huge names that could always shock. They also offer solid betting value. However, if you want to cheer on an upset, I’d go after Sabrina Carpenter.

Please Please Please spent a week at number one on the Billboard Hot 100 chart and she’s one of the biggest young stars we have. I wasn’t a fan of the song itself, but it’s a well crafted music video that even borrows the acting talent of Irish actor Barry Keoghan.

Of course, if I am betting anything of substance, Fortnight is my pick, once again.

Bet: Taylor Swift featuring Post Malone - Fortnight -250

Odds for Best Alternative Song

• Benson Boone – Beautiful Things -275
• Hozier – Too Sweet +325
• Teddy Swims – Lose Control +550
• Imagine Dragons – Eyes Closed +700
• Linkin Park – Friendly Fire +700
• Bleachers – Tiny Movies

This is another MTV VMAs betting market where we can get away from the Taylor Swift adoration for a second. You can bet on the best Alternative song, with newcomer Benson Boone leading the way with Beautiful Things.

The 22-year old Boone broke out in 2021, but really surged to new heights with the release of Beautiful Things, which landed at #1 in the UK Singles Chart. That song also cracked the Billboard Hot 100 top five.

It’s a tough one to beat, but he’s a lesser known name going up against some heavy-hitters. The iconic Linkin Park has interesting odds, Imagine Dragons are seemingly always in play, and then Hozier looks like a strong contender at +325.

If someone is going to stop Boone’s rise, it would be Hozier. Too Sweet has the second best odds and it’s at least arguable that it’s the catchiest song on this list.

I also really enjoyed the Imagine Dragons song. It’s a lot like any of their past work, which of course could be used against them. That said, it offers supreme value with +700 odds and it’s arguably the catchiest song in this market.

Throwing some cash at Hozier is in play, but Beautiful Things is, well, a beautiful song. Poetic, relevant, and relatable, it also features powerhouse vocals and a rising superstar in Boone.

Bet: Benson Boone - Beautiful Things -275

Best Hip-Hop Odds for 2024

• Eminem – Houdini -250
• Megan Thee Stallion – Boa +275
• Travis Scott featuring Playboi Carti – FE!N +500
• Drake featuring Sexxy Red & SZA – Rich Baby Daddy +600
• GloRilla – Yeah Glo! +1000
• Gunna – Fukumean +1000

Eminem is still king of the rap game at age 51. He keeps coming back and blasting home runs out of the ballpark, and yet everyone continues to count him out.

It won’t be long before his hip-hop dominance dries up, but I don’t think that’s coming at the 2024 MTV Video Music Awards.

There’s a nice list of studs in this betting market, as Megan Thee Stallion is quite the contender with Boa, and you have some sick collabs here.

But we’re talking about Slim Shady. His return with smash hit Houdini is impossible to ignore, and what’s harder is trying to imagine MTV not giving him the respect he deserves.

More compelling than betting on the best hip-hop odds, of course, is whether this is Eminem’s final send-off.

Bet: Eminem - Houdini -250

Odds to Win Best R&B Song

• SZA – Snooze -250
• Victoria Monet – On My Mama +300
• Tyla – Water +400
• Muni Long – Made for Me +800
• Usher, Summer Walker & 21 Savage – Good Good +900
• Alicia Keys – Lifeline +1400

SZA has gotten passed over for some categories in my 2024 MTV Awards betting guide, and that’s got nothing to do with her actual talent.

Her song Snooze has a shot at making some serious noise at the VMAs, with the most likely scenario being a big win for best R&B track.

The legendary Alicia Keys is a fun flier bet at +1400 and Victoria Monet’s On My Mama is the top contender, but this one feels obvious.

Bet: SZA - Snooze -250

Best Pop Artist Odds for 2024

• Taylor Swift -250
• Sabrina Carpenter +225
• Olivia Rodrigo +600
• Dua Lipa +700
• Camila Cabello +1000
• Tate McRae +1200

The best pop artist odds suggest Taylor Swift is in for yet another win. That may very well end up being the case, but this is one category where I’d be willing to bet against Taylor’s stranglehold on the VMAs.

Why? Because she’s shown time and again that she isn’t just an ordinary pop star. Her work is a bit more nuanced and artistic to be seen only as pop music.

That, and this is a nice opportunity for the MTV Video Music Awards to highlight someone else. If Taylor Swift wins the other big awards I think she will, there’s room for her to not win this one.

Sabrina Carpenter is a worthy contender with +225 odds, and you could make a case for Rodrigo, Lipa, and Cabella. Of course when looking at the past year, it’s hard to build a strong case for anyone but Swift or Carpenter.

Swift could easily take this one, but Carpenter is deserving of coming out of this event with something. In the name of value and in the spirit of MTV honoring more than just one dominant superstar, I think she’s worth a bet.

Bet: Sabrina Carpenter +225

Odds for Best Rock Song

• Green Day – Dilemma +125
• Coldplay – Feelslikeimfallinginlove +200
• U2 – Atomic City +325
• Kings of Leon – Mustang +400
• Bon Jovi – Legendary +600
• Lenny Kravitz – Human +1000

Lastly, we come to the best rock song odds. The iconic Green Day leads the charge for Dilemma and their +125 odds offer solid value.

The question, of course, is what freaking year is this? In all seriousness, Green Day headlines a category that is a blast from the past with U2, Bon Jovi, and Lenny Kravitz all being in the running.

I have to say, these songs aren’t very good. They are watered down pop rock, and the only song that is remotely good is Mustang by Kings of Leon.

That said, it’s a long shot to win, so betting against Green Day is probably a mistake.

Bet: Green Day - Dilemma +125

Will Taylor Swift Win Both Artist & Song of the Year?

Yes +250

One more thing to bet on ahead of the 2024 MTV Awards is whether Taylor Swift will sweep the Song of the Year and Artist of the Year categories.

She’s nominated for a bunch of awards and is favored for several, so you could consider killing two birds with one stone and just betting on the sweep at +250.

That said, Song of the Year isn’t Video of the Year. And while most of Taylor’s nominations are attached to Fortnight, winning awards for that collaboration with Post Malone don’t guarantee her winning Artist of the Year.

I do think she wins both of these categories, but you’re basically parlaying them together. I like the +250 odds, but it’d be a bummer to pair them and watch one fall short.

Personally, I’d rather just go after these bets separately and see where the cards fall.