Seattle Mariners vs Tampa Bay Rays Picks and Predictions August 27th 2024

Randy Arozarena, Mariners chase more success vs. Rays

At 9:40 PM ET, the Rays and Mariners square off in an AL matchup. This one is being played at T-Mobile Park in Seattle, and the Mariners are favored on the money line at -152. The money line odds for the Rays are sitting at +129, and they are 4th in the AL East compared to the Mariners, who are 2nd in the AL West.

Tampa Bay will be looking to end a two-game losing streak, as they are 65-66 overall, while the Mariners have won two straight and are 67-65. Tuesday’s over/under line is at 6.5 runs, and Logan Gilbert will start for the Mariners. The Rays are starting Jeffrey Springs.

Tampa Bay vs. Seattle Key Information

• Teams: Rays at Mariners
• Where: T-Mobile Park Seattle
• Date: Tuesday, August 27th
• Betting Odds SEA -152 | TB +129 O/U 6.5

The Rays Can Win If…

Jeffrey Springs will be on the mound for the Rays today as they take on the Mariners. Springs has started 4 games this season and has a 1-2 record. His last start was a loss to the Athletics, where he went 3 1/3 innings and gave up 3 earned runs.

So far this season, the Rays are averaging just 3.8 runs per game, which is 28th in the league. They have been even worse at home, averaging just 3.7 runs per contest. As a team, they are batting just .230, which is 22nd in the league, and are also near the bottom of the league in home runs and slugging percentage. One bright spot for the Rays is that they are 10th in the league in walks.

Yandy Diaz has been the Rays’ top run producer this season, as his 56 RBIs are the best on the team. He is also 2nd on the team with 10 home runs and is batting .273. Christopher Morel and Jose Siri are both batting under .200 this season, with Morel leading the team with 21 homers and Siri being 2nd on the team with 16 homers.

• The Rays are 5-5 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Rays are 1-4 vs. the run line.
• Tampa Bay has an over/under record of 3-6-1 in their last ten games.
• The Rays have an average of 3.0 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten road games, the Rays are 4-6
• Looking back across the Rays last five games as the favorite, they are 2-3
• Tampa Bay has gone 1-2 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Rays have averaged 2.8 runs per game on offense

The Mariners Can Win If…

Seattle is sending right-hander Logan Gilbert to the mound today vs. the Rays. Gilbert has made 26 starts this season and has a record of 7-10. His ERA is 3.21, along with a WHIP of .91. Gilbert has turned in 20 quality starts this year and is averaging 8.8 strikeouts per nine innings. In his last outing, he gave up six earned runs in 4 2/3 innings of work, taking the loss. Before that, he had won two straight starts. Gilbert has been much better at home, with an ERA of 2.68 compared to 5.41 on the road.

Cal Raleigh has been a bright spot for the Mariners this season, as he leads the team with 27 home runs and is 14th in the league with 79 RBIs. However, he is hitting just .211 for the season. Julio Rodriguez is batting .253 with 11 homers, and Randy Arozarena has 17 homers but is batting just .213. Arozarena is also on a three-game hitting streak.

Overall, the Mariners are 26th in the league at 3.9 runs per game, and they are also the league’s worst team in terms of batting average and have the most strikeouts in the league. As a team, they are batting just .216 and have an on-base percentage of only .303. Collectively, they have been struggling at the plate of late, as Arozarena has gone 4/24 in his last seven games, and Mitch Haniger is 3/17 in his last five games.

• The Mariners are 4-6 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Mariners are 2-3 vs. the run line.
• Seattle has an over/under record of 6-2-2 in their last ten games.
• The Mariners have an average of 4.4 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten home games, the Mariners are 1-9
• Looking back across the Mariners last five games as the favorite, they are 4-1
• Seattle has gone 0-3 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Mariners have averaged 2.8 runs per game on offense

The Lean

Our lean in this Rays vs. Mariners matchup is to take the Mariners to win straight-up. We are also leaning towards taking the over, as this is our 2nd lowest projected scoring game of the day, and this one has the 4th lowest total hits projection. Between the two starters, we have Logan Gilbert as the better strikeout option over Jeffrey Springs for the Rays.

Facing off against his former team, Randy Arozarena found the spark he needed to end his slump and lead the Seattle Mariners to a crucial 5-1 victory over the Tampa Bay Rays on Monday night at T-Mobile Park. This win, part of a three-game series, keeps the Mariners in close pursuit of the Houston Astros in the American League West.

Arozarena’s Redemption: A Timely Homer

Randy Arozarena, who was acquired by the Mariners from the Rays just before the trade deadline, had been struggling with a 3-for-38 slump. However, on Monday night, he delivered when it mattered most. In the bottom of the third inning, Arozarena smashed a tiebreaking three-run home run over the right-field wall, giving the Mariners a 4-1 lead. This blast marked Arozarena’s first home run at T-Mobile Park as a Mariner, and it couldn’t have come at a better time.

“Something I’m not going to ever do is lose my confidence, but when something like that happens, it just boosts your confidence a little more,” Arozarena shared through an interpreter after the game. “I know things are going to turn around. I’m not losing sleep over it. I just have to keep working.”

A Statement Against the Former Team

Arozarena’s performance was particularly poignant given that it came against the Rays, the team he played for before being traded to Seattle. When asked if he thought his former manager, Kevin Cash, would pitch around him, Arozarena confidently predicted, “He’s not going to want to give me anything, but I’m still going to try and hit a homer.”

True to his word, Arozarena capitalized on his opportunity, much to the dismay of his former teammates. Rays manager Kevin Cash wasn’t surprised by Arozarena’s big moment, stating, “I have so much respect for him. I know he’s pretty motivated to play against us.”

Mariners Riding High Under New Management

The Mariners, now 3-1 under new manager Dan Wilson, demonstrated resilience and precision on both sides of the ball. Arozarena’s homer wasn’t the only offensive highlight; Jorge Polanco also contributed with a solo home run. On the mound, Bryce Miller delivered a stellar performance, allowing just one run on two hits over seven innings, while tying his career high with ten strikeouts.

The win brought Seattle within 3 1/2 games of the division-leading Houston Astros, keeping their playoff hopes alive as they continue to chase success in a competitive AL West.

Costly Rays’ Error Sets the Stage

The Mariners capitalized on a rare defensive misstep by the Rays. With two outs in the bottom of the third inning, Mariners’ Julio Rodriguez hit a grounder that skipped under the glove of third baseman Jose Caballero, who had gone 77 games without an error. This mistake extended the inning, leading to a sequence where Cal Raleigh’s infield single set the stage for Arozarena’s three-run shot.

“(Caballero), the defensive run he’s been on is just amazing,” Cash commented. “It’s unfortunate in the moment. And then probably the wrong guy in Randy coming up.”

Rays Struggling to Find Form

The Rays, who have now lost four of their last five games, continue to struggle, dropping to a 65-66 record, just below .500. The team managed only two hits in the game, both from Josh Lowe, who opened the scoring with a solo homer deep to right-center in the second inning. However, they were unable to build on that early lead.

Looking Ahead: Springs vs. Gilbert

The series continues on Tuesday with a pitching duel that could shape the momentum for both teams. The Rays will send left-hander Jeffrey Springs (1-2, 4.50 ERA) to the mound, hoping to bounce back after his recent road loss to the Oakland A’s, where he allowed three runs on seven hits over 3 1/3 innings. Springs has a solid track record against the Mariners, with a 1-0 record and a 3.95 ERA in nine career appearances, mostly in relief.

The Mariners will counter with right-hander Logan Gilbert (7-10, 3.21 ERA), who is looking to rebound from a tough outing against the Los Angeles Dodgers, where he surrendered eight runs (six earned) in 4 2/3 innings. Gilbert’s career numbers against the Rays are mixed, with a 1-1 record and a 4.22 ERA in four starts.

Conclusion: Mariners Gaining Momentum

As the Mariners look to continue their upward trajectory under new management, Randy Arozarena’s breakout performance could signal a turning point for both him and the team. With the postseason race heating up, Seattle will need to maintain their momentum and capitalize on opportunities as they chase the Astros in the AL West. The next game in the series will be pivotal as both teams seek to gain an edge.

Take your MLB handicapping to the next level with our expert MLB handicappers