St. Louis Cardinals vs San Diego Padres Picks and Predictions August 28th 2024

Padres’ Joe Musgrove aims to continue sizzling run in clash vs. Cards

Joe Musgrove will start for the Padres on Wednesday, as they are on the road to face the Cardinals at Busch Stadium in St. Louis. The Cardinals will be looking to snap a two-game losing streak, but they are the slight underdog on the money line (+112). The over/under line is currently 8.5 runs.

San Diego is 76-58 overall and they have won three straight games. The Cardinals are 3rd in the NL Central with a record of 65-67. Andre Pallante is slated to start for St. Louis. BSMW is carrying this game on TV.

San Diego vs. St. Louis Key Information

• Teams: Padres at Cardinals
• Where: Busch Stadium St. Louis
• Date: Wednesday, August 28th
• Betting Odds SD -132 | STL +112 O/U 8.5

The Padres Can Win If…

Joe Musgrove will be looking to build off his last outing, where he didn’t give up a run and picked up the win. In that start vs. the Mets, he went seven innings and didn’t give up a walk. Looking at his overall numbers, Musgrove has made 13 starts, and his record for the season is 4-4. The right-hander’s ERA is 4.43, along with a WHIP of 1.26. For the year, he has allowed 10 home runs. Musgrove has made five quality starts this year and is averaging 8.31 strikeouts per nine innings.

San Diego has the MLB’s top batting average at .265 and are also the league’s top home run hitting team. So far, they are averaging 4.8 runs per game, which is 11th in the league. The Padres have been even better on the road, averaging 5.1 runs per contest. Collectively, they are the league’s top team in terms of fewest strikeouts per game.

Jurickson Profar has been the Padres’ top run producer this season, as his 80 RBIs are the best mark on the team. He also has 21 homers, which is 2nd on the team and 15th in the league. Manny Machado has gone 8/20 in his last five games, including two homers and five RBIs. His 22 homers is the best mark on the team and 14th in the MLB.

• The Padres are 6-4 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Padres are 3-2 vs. the run line.
• San Diego has an over/under record of 7-3 in their last ten games.
• The Padres have an average of 5.0 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten road games, the Padres are 7-3
• Looking back across the Padres last five games as the favorite, they are 3-2
• San Diego has gone 3-0 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Padres have averaged 6.4 runs per game on offense

The Cardinals Can Win If…

Right-hander Andre Pallante gets the start for the Cardinals today as he faces the Padres at home. Pallante has made 14 starts this season and has a record of 6-6 with a 3.84 ERA. Looking back at his last outing, Pallante picked up the win vs. the Twins, going seven innings and giving up just one earned run. He has actually won each of his last two starts, giving up a total of three earned runs in that span. Pallante has a WHIP of 1.29 this season and has issued 3.43 walks per nine innings compared to 6.75 strikeouts.

For the season, the Cardinals are averaging 4.1 runs per game, which is 24th in the league. One thing to keep an eye on is that they are just 26th in the league in runs per game on the road, but are 15th in the league in home games. As a team, they are batting .246, which is 10th in the MLB, and are also near the top of the league in terms of team on-base percentage and batting average on balls in play.

Over the team’s last nine games, Masyn Winn has gone 14/38, and Alec Burleson and Paul Goldschmidt have each gone deep once. Goldschmidt is just 7/26 in his last seven games and is batting just .231 for the season. However, he does have 20 homers, which is 2nd on the team.

• The Cardinals are 5-5 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Cardinals are 2-3 vs. the run line.
• St. Louis has an over/under record of 3-7 in their last ten games.
• The Cardinals have an average of 3.6 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten home games, the Cardinals are 4-6
• Looking back across the Cardinals last five games as the favorite, they are 1-4
• St. Louis has gone 1-2 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Cardinals have averaged 3.1 runs per game on offense

The Lean

For an over/under pick, our lean is on the over, as this is projected to be the 5th highest-scoring game of the day. As for who is going to take this one straight up, we have our lean on the Cardinals to pick up the win. St. Louis has the 5th best team ERA in the league, and Andre Pallante is our 3rd ranked starter of the day in terms of fewest earned runs allowed. Joe Musgrove is 18th in our projections in terms of strikeouts.

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San Diego Padres right-hander Joe Musgrove is set to take the mound on Wednesday night, looking to continue his impressive run of form as he faces the St. Louis Cardinals in the third game of a four-game series. Musgrove, who has recently returned from his second stint on the injured list due to bone spurs in his elbow, has been nothing short of stellar, anchoring the Padres’ pitching staff with remarkable consistency.

Musgrove’s Recent Dominance

Since his return, Musgrove has been lights out, posting a minuscule 0.57 ERA over his last three starts, spanning 15 2/3 innings. In that stretch, he has struck out 16 batters while issuing just three walks, a testament to his command and control. His latest outing was his most dominant of the season, as he threw seven innings of one-hit baseball against the New York Mets, leading the Padres to a 7-0 victory. Musgrove’s performance was not only efficient—requiring just 75 pitches—but also overpowering, as he fanned nine batters without allowing a single walk.

Padres manager Mike Shildt praised Musgrove’s outing, calling it “a masterpiece” and highlighting his ability to maintain control throughout the game. Musgrove’s success has been bolstered by the integration of a newly refined slider into his pitch mix, which already includes a curveball, cutter, and sweeper. This enhanced arsenal has made him particularly difficult for hitters to handle, as evidenced by his recent results.

“I know where the holes are,” Musgrove said, reflecting on his game plan against the Mets. “This lineup has a lot of dangerous hitters, but I feel like the plan was very clear, and it fit right into what I do really well.”

Head-to-Head: Musgrove vs. Cardinals

Musgrove’s history against the Cardinals is a mixed bag. Earlier this season, he delivered a strong performance against them, allowing just one run over six innings and striking out seven in a 3-2 victory. However, his overall record against St. Louis is less favorable. In 12 career starts against the Cardinals, Musgrove holds a 3-7 record with a 4.87 ERA, suggesting that while he has had moments of success, consistency has been elusive.

Despite this, Musgrove’s recent form and the Padres’ current momentum—having won three consecutive games and four of their last five—could give him the edge as he takes on the Cardinals once more.

Andre Pallante’s Steady Rise for the Cardinals

Opposing Musgrove will be Cardinals right-hander Andre Pallante, who has also been in solid form. Pallante has allowed just four earned runs over his last 19 2/3 innings, good for a 1.83 ERA over his last three starts. His ability to induce ground balls has been a key factor in his recent success, as he recorded 14 ground-ball outs in his last start, a 6-1 victory over the Minnesota Twins.

Pallante’s recent string of strong performances has bolstered his case to remain in the starting rotation, especially with veteran Lance Lynn expected to return from the injured list soon. Cardinals manager Oliver Marmol emphasized the importance of Pallante staying focused on the task at hand, noting that his mental approach will be crucial to maintaining his current level of performance.

“Andre’s doing a really nice job, and he needs to stay right where he’s at mentally,” Marmol said. “He doesn’t have to worry about anything but making his next start. Just stay present.”

Pallante has limited experience against the Padres this season, having pitched one scoreless inning of relief back in April. However, his overall success in relief appearances against San Diego—where he holds a 2-0 record with a 2.35 ERA—suggests that he can be effective against this lineup.

Key Factors and Team Dynamics

The Padres enter this game with significant momentum, having already secured wins in the first two games of this series. With Musgrove in peak form, they will look to extend their winning streak and solidify their position as a playoff contender.

On the other hand, the Cardinals will rely on Pallante’s steady hand to halt the Padres’ surge. The potential return of star third baseman Nolan Arenado to the lineup adds an extra layer of intrigue. Arenado, who was given a day off on Tuesday, is expected to be back in action, providing a critical boost to the Cardinals’ offense.

Meanwhile, the Cardinals have made roster adjustments to bolster their bullpen, designating Shawn Armstrong for assignment and promoting Riley O’Brien from Triple-A Memphis. O’Brien, who has been sidelined for much of the season with an arm injury, made his season debut on Tuesday night. His performance could be a wild card in the bullpen’s effectiveness going forward.

Game Outlook

The stage is set for a compelling matchup between two pitchers on strong runs of form. While Musgrove’s recent dominance gives the Padres a potential advantage, Pallante’s ability to induce ground balls and keep hitters off balance could make this a tight contest. The Padres’ offense, which has been clicking in recent games, will be tested by Pallante’s approach, while the Cardinals will look to Arenado and their lineup to break through against Musgrove.

With both teams vying for critical wins as the season progresses, this game could have significant implications for their playoff aspirations. Fans can expect a tightly contested battle, with the outcome likely hinging on which pitcher can maintain their current level of excellence on the mound.