Colorado Rockies vs Miami Marlins Picks and Predictions August 28th 2024

Rockies look to rebound from demoralizing loss in rematch vs. Marlins

Wednesday’s matchup between the Marlins and Rockies has a first pitch set for 8:40 PM ET from Coors Field in Denver. The Rockies are favored on the money line, with their odds sitting at -130, while the Marlins are at +111. The over/under line is sitting at 11 runs.

Max Meyer is starting for the Marlins, and he is facing off against Kyle Freeland for the Rockies. Both teams are 5th in their respective divisions, with the Marlins being 48-84 compared to the Rockies at 49-84.

Miami vs. Colorado Key Information

• Teams: Marlins at Rockies
• Where: Coors Field Denver
• Date: Wednesday, August 28th
• Betting Odds COL -130 | MIA +111 O/U 11

The Marlins Can Win If…

Miami is sending right-hander Max Meyer to the mound today as he faces the Rockies on the road. Meyer has made nine starts this season and has a record of 3-3 with an ERA of 5.44. Looking at his overall numbers, Meyer has a WHIP of 1.36 and has allowed a total of 11 home runs. In his most recent outing, Meyer finished with a no-decision, giving up three earned runs in six innings of work. Before that, he had won two straight starts. Meyer’s ERA at home is 5.76, compared to 6.11 on the road.

One of the Marlins’ biggest issues this season has been their lack of power, as they are just 23rd in home runs and are averaging only 3.7 runs per game. Jake Burger has been a bright spot in the lineup, as his 25 homers are 11th in the league, and he is also leading the team with 59 RBIs. Burger is batting .248 for the season, and Jesús Sánchez is right behind him with 17 homers and 56 RBIs.

Over his last eight games, Connor Norby is hitting .344 with two homers and 10 runs scored. Sánchez has also gone deep twice in this stretch and has eight RBIs. Sánchez is also on a three-game hitting streak, as are Jake Burger, Bryan De La Cruz, and Kyle Stowers.

• The Marlins are 3-7 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Marlins are 2-3 vs. the run line.
• Miami has an over/under record of 5-4-1 in their last ten games.
• The Marlins have an average of 4.6 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten road games, the Marlins are 5-5
• Looking back across the Marlins last five games as the favorite, they are 3-2
• Miami has gone 2-1 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Marlins have averaged 4.1 runs per game on offense

The Rockies Can Win If…

Kyle Freeland is looking to bounce back from a rough outing vs. the Yankees, where he gave up 2 earned runs and took the loss in 6 2/3 innings of work. In that outing, he gave up two homers. Looking back over his last three outings, Freeland has given up at least one homer in each. His ERA for the season is 5.70, along with a record of 3-6. Opposing batters are hitting .290 off Freeland this year. The left-hander has made seven quality starts this year, and his ERA at home is 4.29 compared to 10.94 on the road.

Colorado’s offense has been pretty average this season, as they are 19th in runs scored and have the 11th best batting average in the league. However, they have been striking out a lot and are near the bottom of the league in walks. The Rockies have been a good home run hitting team, but their collective slugging percentage is just 14th in the league.

Both Ezequiel Tovar and Brenton Doyle are batting over .269 for the Rockies this season, and they are tied for the team lead with 21 homers apiece. Tovar has gone 7/25 in his last six games, with two homers and four RBIs. Jake Cave is also swinging a hot bat right now, going 8/17 in his last four games.

• The Rockies are 4-6 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Rockies are 2-3 vs. the run line.
• Colorado has an over/under record of 5-5 in their last ten games.
• The Rockies have an average of 4.6 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten home games, the Rockies are 2-8
• Looking back across the Rockies last five games as the favorite, they are 1-4
• Colorado has gone 2-1 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Rockies have averaged 3.2 runs per game on offense

The Lean

Our lean for a money-line pick in this Marlins vs. Rockies matchup is to take the Rockies to come out on top. We are also leaning towards the under, as this is projected to be the 4th lowest-scoring game of the day. Colorado starter Kyle Freeland has the 6th best team run support average in the league, and he is 16th to pick up a win today. On the other side, Max Meyer has the highest strikeout projection among today’s starters.

The Colorado Rockies have faced their fair share of challenges on the road this season, but home has been a different story. As the Rockies continue their four-game series against the Miami Marlins, they are determined to shake off a crushing ninth-inning collapse and secure their fifth home series win since July 1.

Home Sweet Home: Rockies’ Strong Performance at Coors Field

Despite a rocky overall season, the Rockies have found some solace in Denver, winning four of their last five home series. This success at Coors Field offers a silver lining in an otherwise tough year, with the team sitting at a 30-34 home record compared to a dismal 19-50 on the road. As they face the Marlins this week, the Rockies are looking to capitalize on their home-field advantage once again.

The Aftermath of a Demoralizing Loss

The Rockies opened the series with a tight 3-2 victory over Miami, but the second game was a gut-wrenching defeat. Leading 8-4 in the ninth inning, the Rockies saw their bullpen falter, allowing the Marlins to storm back and steal a 9-8 win. This heartbreaking loss overshadowed a stellar performance by rising star Ezequiel Tovar, who blasted two home runs. The Rockies now need to regroup and refocus as they head into the next crucial matchups.

Kyle Freeland: The Hometown Hero’s Redemption

Taking the mound for Colorado on Wednesday is left-hander Kyle Freeland, a Denver native with a 3-6 record and a 5.70 ERA this season. Freeland’s return from a 60-day injured list due to a left elbow strain has shown promising signs of improvement. In his 11 starts since returning, he has posted a respectable 3.84 ERA, though he has only secured three wins during this stretch.

Freeland’s ability to command his pitches, particularly his secondary offerings, has been a key factor in his recent form. Rockies manager Bud Black praised Freeland’s focus on keeping the ball down, noting that “the secondary pitches have been consistently in good spots.” With a career 2-0 record and a 3.60 ERA against the Marlins, Freeland has the potential to deliver the strong performance the Rockies need to bounce back.

Max Meyer: Marlins’ Young Ace in the Making

Opposing Freeland will be Miami’s right-hander Max Meyer, who is still finding his rhythm after missing the entire 2023 season due to Tommy John surgery. Meyer started the 2024 season on a high note, winning two of his first three starts and posting a 2.12 ERA. However, his return to the majors in late July has been marked by inconsistency, with four consecutive starts allowing four or more runs before a solid six-inning performance against the Chicago Cubs last Friday.

Meyer, who has never faced the Rockies before, is working to diversify his pitching arsenal by incorporating his changeup more frequently. Marlins manager Skip Schumaker believes this pitch could become a “real weapon” for Meyer as he continues to develop his game.

Keys to the Game: Command and Composure

For the Rockies, the key to rebounding lies in solid pitching from Freeland and avoiding the bullpen meltdowns that have plagued them recently. A strong start from Freeland, combined with timely hitting from the likes of Tovar, could set the stage for a much-needed series victory.

The Marlins, on the other hand, will look to Meyer to keep the Rockies’ offense in check. If Meyer can effectively mix his pitches and keep the Rockies off balance, Miami could continue to exploit Colorado’s vulnerabilities.

What’s at Stake?

A win on Wednesday would not only help the Rockies erase the bitter taste of Tuesday’s loss but also put them in position to claim their fifth home series win since July 1. For a team that has struggled mightily on the road, continued success at Coors Field is essential to finishing the season on a high note.

As the Rockies and Marlins prepare to clash again, all eyes will be on the mound. Can Freeland deliver a performance that reaffirms his standing as the Rockies’ hometown hero? Or will Meyer, with his evolving arsenal, stymie the Rockies and push the Marlins closer to a series win?

Conclusion

Wednesday’s game is more than just a rematch—it’s a test of resilience and adaptation for both teams. For the Rockies, it’s about proving that they can rebound from adversity and protect their home turf. For the Marlins, it’s an opportunity to build on their momentum and secure a rare road victory. The outcome could set the tone for the remainder of the series, making this matchup one to watch.

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