Seattle Mariners vs Tampa Bay Rays Picks and Predictions August 28th 2024

Rays, boosted by clutch homers, seek series win over M’s

At 4:10 PM ET, the Rays and Mariners square off in an AL matchup. This one is being played at T-Mobile Park in Seattle, and the Mariners are favored on the money line (-175). The money line odds for the Rays are sitting at +145, and the over/under line is at 7 runs.

Tampa Bay will be starting Tyler Alexander, while the Mariners are sending Luis Castillo to the mound. The Rays are 66-66 this season, while the Mariners are above .500 at 67-66 and are 2nd in the AL West. The Rays are 4th in the AL East. RSNW will be televising this game.

Tampa Bay vs. Seattle Key Information

• Teams: Rays at Mariners
• Where: T-Mobile Park Seattle
• Date: Wednesday, August 28th
• Betting Odds SEA -175 | TB +145 O/U 7

The Rays Can Win If…

Tyler Alexander is getting the start for the Rays today as he faces the Mariners on the road. So far, he has made 17 appearances and seven starts. Alexander’s record for the season is 5-3, and his ERA is 5.22. Looking at his overall numbers, he has a WHIP of 1.30 and has pitched much better on the road, coming in with a record of 3-1 and 3.57 ERA. At home, his ERA is 6.14. In his last outing, Alexander went 4 1/3 innings, giving up three earned runs, and he finished with a no-decision. He has finished with a no-decision in each of his last three outings.

Yandy Diaz has been one of the few bright spots in the Rays lineup this season, as he is batting .275 and has a team-high 57 RBIs. He is also on a three-game hitting streak and has gone 10/32 in his last nine games. Jose Siri and Christopher Morel are the Rays’ top home run hitters this season, but both have struggled in terms of batting average.

Overall, the Rays are 28th in the MLB in runs scored, averaging just 3.8 runs per game. They have been slightly better on the road, averaging 4.0 runs per contest. As a team, they are batting just .230 and have the 22nd ranked on-base percentage in the league.

• The Rays are 5-5 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Rays are 2-3 vs. the run line.
• Tampa Bay has an over/under record of 3-7 in their last ten games.
• The Rays have an average of 3.4 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten road games, the Rays are 5-5
• Looking back across the Rays last five games as the favorite, they are 2-3
• Tampa Bay has gone 1-2 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Rays have averaged 2.9 runs per game on offense

The Mariners Can Win If…

Luis Castillo gets the start for the Mariners today vs. the Rays and comes in with a record of 10-12 and an ERA of 3.66. So far this season, he has made 27 starts, and opponents are batting .233 off the right-hander. In his 27 appearances, Castillo has turned in 17 quality starts and is averaging 9.19 strikeouts per nine innings. Looking back at his last outing, Castillo finished with a no-decision vs. the Giants, giving up five earned runs in six innings of work. Before that, he had won two straight starts.

Heading into today’s game, the Mariners are averaging just 3.9 runs per game, which is 26th in the majors. They have been even worse at home, averaging only 3.7 runs per game. As a team, they are batting just .215, which is the worst mark in the league. However, they do have the 13th most home runs in the league and are 4th in walks.

Cal Raleigh has been the team’s most consistent power threat this season, as his 27 home runs are the best on the team and 9th in the league. He is also on a three-game hitting streak. Julio Rodriguez has also been a solid power threat, with 11 homers of his own and a team-leading 40 RBIs. Over his last five games, Randy Arozarena has gone 4/19 with one home run and four RBIs.

• The Mariners are 4-6 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Mariners are 2-3 vs. the run line.
• Seattle has an over/under record of 5-3-2 in their last ten games.
• The Mariners have an average of 4.0 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten home games, the Mariners are 1-9
• Looking back across the Mariners last five games as the favorite, they are 4-1
• Seattle has gone 0-3 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Mariners have averaged 2.8 runs per game on offense

The Lean

Today’s Rays and Mariners matchup should feature plenty of offense, as this is projected to be the 3rd highest-scoring game of the day. For an over/under pick, our lean is on the over. As for who is going to take this one straight up, we have our lean on the Rays to pick up the win. Tampa Bay’s offense has our 2nd highest team hits projection and 3rd highest team runs projection. Looking at today’s starters, we have Luis Castillo as the 4th best strikeout option.

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Tampa Bay Rays manager Kevin Cash knows that every matchup against the Seattle Mariners often hinges on a single run. This was precisely the case Tuesday night, as the Rays clinched a narrow 3-2 victory, evening the three-game series at one win apiece, thanks to late-inning heroics from Jose Siri and Yandy Diaz.

The decisive game is set for Wednesday afternoon, with both teams eager to claim the series.

Late-Inning Heroics Propel Rays to Victory

The game was a tense affair, with the Rays trailing 1-0 until the seventh inning. Jose Siri, despite his struggles this season, came through in a clutch moment. With two outs and down 0-2 in the count against Mariners reliever JT Chargois, Siri battled back, fouling off three consecutive pitches before launching a 418-foot home run to straightaway center field. This two-run blast gave the Rays a 2-1 lead and marked Siri’s 17th home run of the season. Notably, eight of those homers have either tied the game or put the Rays ahead.

“That was a huge hit in the moment,” Kevin Cash said, acknowledging the significance of Siri’s timely contribution.

In the eighth inning, Yandy Diaz extended the Rays’ lead with a 416-foot solo home run to left-center off Collin Snider. This insurance run proved crucial as the Mariners threatened to come back late in the game.

Pitching Duel Highlights Game Two

The Rays’ win was also supported by strong pitching performances. Left-hander Jeffrey Springs delivered five shutout innings, striking out a season-high nine batters. Springs, returning from Tommy John surgery last year, allowed just one hit—a two-out single in the fourth inning by former teammate Randy Arozarena.

“Definitely felt a lot better than the last one in Oakland,” Springs commented, referring to his previous start where he struggled to find his rhythm. “I was able to locate my fastball early, and everything works off that for me.”

On the other side, Mariners starter Logan Gilbert was equally impressive, pitching six scoreless innings and setting a season high with 10 strikeouts. Gilbert retired the first 11 Rays batters before allowing an infield single to Josh Lowe in the fourth. However, despite his dominant performance, Gilbert did not receive the necessary run support to secure a win.

“I feel like my stuff has been good, but good games or bad games depend on my mentality and recommitting to my plan at every at-bat,” Gilbert said, reflecting on his outing.

Series Decider on the Horizon

The series finale promises to be another closely contested game. The Rays plan to use right-hander Drew Rasmussen (0-0, 2.70 ERA) as an opener. Rasmussen, a Washington native, has excelled against the Mariners in his career, boasting a 2-0 record with an 0.71 ERA in three appearances, including two starts.

“He’s about as self-motivated a player as I’ve ever been around and easily as hard a worker as I’ve been around,” Rays pitching coach Kyle Snyder said of Rasmussen, highlighting his dedication and resilience in returning from multiple elbow procedures.

Opposing Rasmussen will be Mariners ace Luis Castillo (10-12, 3.66 ERA). Castillo is looking to bounce back from a tough outing against the Rays earlier this season, where he allowed four runs on five hits and four walks over 5 1/3 innings in an 11-3 loss. Castillo has been solid against Tampa Bay in his career, with a 3.33 ERA over four starts.

Mariners Miss Opportunity to Close Gap in AL West

Tuesday’s loss was a missed opportunity for the Mariners, who remain in a tight race in the AL West. Under interim manager Dan Wilson, the Mariners have won three of their last five games, but the failure to capitalize on Gilbert’s strong start and close the gap on the division-leading Houston Astros is a setback.

The Mariners will need to regroup quickly as they face the challenge of securing a series win in the finale, with Castillo leading the charge on the mound.

Conclusion

As the Rays and Mariners prepare for the decisive third game, the series stands as a testament to the importance of late-inning performances and clutch moments in baseball. With both teams vying for crucial wins in their respective playoff races, the outcome of Wednesday’s game could have significant implications for the remainder of the season.