Tampa Bay Rays vs San Diego Padres Picks and Predictions September 1st 2024

San Diego is the favorite on the money line today, with their odds sitting at -139 compared to the Rays, who are at +119. First pitch from Tropicana Field is set for 1:40 PM ET, and BSSUN is carrying this one on TV.

The over/under line is currently at 7 runs, and the forecast for St. Petersburg calls for partly cloudy skies and temperatures in the mid-80s. Ryan Pepiot is starting for the Rays, and the Padres are starting Dylan Cease. San Diego is 77-61, while the Rays are 67-68.

Dylan Cease will be looking to bounce back from his last outing, where he finished with a no-decision. Against the Cardinals, Cease gave up four earned runs in 4 1/3 innings of work. He only gave up one earned run in each of his two outings before that. Cease has a record of 12-10 this season and an ERA of 3.57. Looking at his overall numbers, Cease has a WHIP of 1.09 and is averaging 11.15 strikeouts per nine innings. Cease has one complete game shutout this year and 14 quality starts. For the season, he has allowed 17 homers.

San Diego comes into today’s game as the league’s top hitting team, with a batting average of .265. They are also the top home run hitting team in the league and have been very good at avoiding strikeouts this season. The Padres have been even better on the road this season, averaging 5.1 runs per game.

Manny Machado and Jurickson Profar have been the Padres’ top power threats this season, as Machado’s 23 homers are 1st on the team and 13th in the MLB, while Profar is right behind him with 21 homers. Over his last eight games, Machado has gone 11/33 with three homers and nine RBIs. Luis Arraez is hitting .309 this season and is 2nd on the team with 39 RBIs.

The Rays are sending Ryan Pepiot to the mound today vs. the Padres, and he will be looking to bounce back from a rough outing vs. the Mariners. In that start, he took the loss, giving up five earned runs in six innings of work. Before that outing, he had pitched well, going 2-0 with a 1.29 ERA in his previous three starts. Pepiot’s overall record is 7-6, and he has an ERA of 3.61. Opponents are batting .202 off the right-hander this season. Out of his 20 starts, Pepiot has turned in eight quality starts and is averaging 9.46 strikeouts per nine innings.

Heading into today’s game, the Rays offense is averaging just 3.9 runs per game, which is 28th in the MLB. They have been even worse at home this season, averaging just 3.8 runs per game. As a team, the Rays are batting just .231, and their team on-base percentage of .306 is 15th in the league. Tampa Bay does have a few hitters who have been swinging the bat well of late, as Josh Lowe is hitting .474 over his last five games, and Yandy Diaz has gone 4/10 in his last three games, with two homers over that stretch.

Yandy Diaz has been a bright spot for the Rays this season, as he is batting .276 with a team-high 59 RBIs and 12 homers. Christopher Morel leads the team with 21 homers but is batting just .197 for the season. Morel has also struck out a lot this season, as his 56 RBIs are the 2nd most on the team, but he also has the 15th most strikeouts in the league.

Padres’ Resilience and Offensive Momentum

The San Diego Padres (77-61) are coming into Sunday’s rubber match against the Rays with determination, despite a tough loss on Saturday. After a dominant 13-5 victory in the series opener, they stumbled with an 11-4 defeat but remain focused on their bigger goal: securing a National League wild-card spot and possibly catching the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NL West.

Manager Mike Shildt remains optimistic, highlighting the team’s fighting spirit, even in challenging moments.

The Padres’ offense has been firing on all cylinders, racking up 23 hits over the first two games of the series. However, the pitching staff has struggled, with starters failing to go deep into games consistently. On Sunday, they’ll look to Dylan Cease (12-10, 3.57 ERA) to step up. Cease, however, has had mixed results against the Rays, with a 1-2 record and a 5.40 ERA in five career starts.

Rays’ Balanced Attack and Rising Stars

The Tampa Bay Rays (67-68) bounced back in a big way on Saturday, with every player in the lineup reaching base at least once. A standout has been rookie Junior Caminero, who continues to impress, hitting his first career home run at Tropicana Field and his third in the past eight games. The 21-year-old shortstop, who was called up on August 13, has quickly established himself as a key player for Tampa Bay.

Tampa Bay will turn to right-hander Ryan Pepiot (7-6, 3.61 ERA) for Sunday’s game. In his most recent start against Seattle, Pepiot gave up five runs (only two earned) over six innings, striking out six and walking one in a 5-1 loss. Pepiot has faced the Padres twice in his career, once as a starter, and holds a 0-1 record with a 4.50 ERA, allowing four earned runs over eight innings.

Game Outlook

Sunday’s rubber match presents an opportunity for both teams to close out the series on a high note. The Padres will look to maintain their offensive momentum while hoping for a solid performance from Cease on the mound. Meanwhile, the Rays will aim to capitalize on their balanced lineup and Pepiot’s steady presence to secure the series win. With both teams vying for crucial wins as the season winds down, the final game of this series promises to be a competitive and exciting showdown.

We have this matchup between the Padres and Rays as a low-scoring game, but with the line sitting at 7 runs, we are still leaning towards taking the over. As for a straight-up pick, we are leaning towards the Padres to pick up the win. San Diego starter Dylan Cease has the highest strikeout projection among today’s starters, and Ryan Pepiot has the 3rd lowest among today’s starters for the Rays.