2025 NASCAR Championship Odds and Predictions

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The 2024 NASCAR Cup Series season concluded on Sunday, November 10, with Joey Logano winning the Championship in Phoenix. Logano held on in the final laps to beat out Ryan Blaney, William Byron and Tyler Reddick to win the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race.

This was Logano’s third NASCAR Cup Series Championship as he’s also won the sport’s most coveted crown in 2018 and 2022. However, despite being a three-time champ, NASCAR betting sites are still not respecting Logano as they have five other drivers listed with better 2025 Cup Series Championship than the reigning champ.

With the 2025 NASCAR Championship odds just being released, sportsbooks have Kyle Larson listed as the odds-on favorite to win this title next year. He’s followed by Christopher Bell, Blaney, Denny Hamlin and Byron.  

Two of those favorites (Blaney, Byron) made it to the Final 4 of the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs. All of those odds-on favorites made it to the Round of 8. The final member of the 2024 Cup Series Final 4 drivers, Tyler Reddick, is listed with the same odds as Logano despite the latter actually winning the Championship.

With that said, let’s take a look at the opening 2025 NASCAR Cup Series Championship odds, courtesy of the best sports betting sites, and make our way too early NASCAR Cup Series Championship predictions.

2025 NASCAR Cup Series Championship Odds

NASCAR Championship Betting Favorites

The following drivers are considered the odds-on favorites to win the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series Championship. Each driver listed below, features their 2024 Cup Series season stats along with their career best finish:

Kyle Larson +500

• Wins: 6
• Top 5: 15
• Top 10: 18
• 2024 Finish: 6^th
• Career Best: 2021 Champion

As a Kyle Larson fan, I was very disappointed to see that my favorite driver couldn’t make it to the Championship Race despite leading the series in wins (6) and Top 5s (15).

His six victories were the most since he blew away the field with 10 wins in 2021. That was the year that the #5 car finished as the Cup Series Champion.

I really thought 2024 was going to be his year. Just about every week, Larson was one of the betting favorites to win the race.

He won at Las Vegas in the spring, Kansas, Sonoma, Indianapolis, Bristol and Charlotte ROVAL. The two latter races were both in the Playoffs, which made it even more baffling that Larson was unable to crack the Final 4.

Outside of his 2020 debacle of a season, Larson has made the Playoffs every year since 2016. He’s consistently made it out of the first round in every appearance.

However, his 6^th place finish in 2024, was a big step back from finishing 2^nd to Blaney in 2023. Larson has 23 wins over the last four years, which is the most out of any driver in the field.

Larson seems to be hitting his stride as a driver and is part of the best team in all of NASCAR – Hendrick Motorsports. But will we actually see Larson win a second Championship next year?

Christopher Bell +550

• Wins: 3
• Top 5: 15
• Top 10: 3
• 2024 Finish: 5^th
• Career Best: 3^rd in 2022

Christopher Bell has just wrapped up his 5^th season as a full-time participant in the Cup Series. And, the talented Joe Gibbs Racing driver put up his best numbers of his young career.

Bell finished with three wins, which tied him for third last season. It also tied him for the most wins in any of his Cup Series campaigns. However, Bell’s Top 5s (15) and Top 10s (23) were the most he’s tallied in his career. In fact, the 15 Top 5s tied him with Larson for the most in the Cup Series. And his 23 Top 10s were the most of any driver.

Bell also ended up with a 12.8 average finish in 2024, which was the second best behind Chase Elliott’s 11.7 average finish.

The #20 car was constantly considered a race favorite every week, just like Larson. He won at Phoenix in the spring, Charlotte in the Summer, and at Loudon.

Unfortunately, Bell was unable to pick up a Playoff win. Additionally, he was robbed of advancing to the Final 4 for a third consecutive postseason as NASCAR ruled the 29-year-old to have violated a safety rule at the end of the Xfinity 500 in Martinsville to close out the Round of 8.

Bell has made the Playoffs in four consecutive seasons and has three straight Top 5 finishes on the year. His best result was 3^rd in 2022, which I think he could’ve matched or surpassed if he wasn’t unfairly disqualified in Martinsville.

With that said, Bell is a true contender for the 2025 NASCAR Championship just like Larson and a few others. However, will he be our opening pick to win it all next year?

Ryan Blaney +700       

• Wins: 3
• Top 5: 12
• Top 10: 18
• 2024 Finish: 2^nd  
• Career Best: 2023 Champion

Ryan Blaney came a few laps away from winning a second consecutive NASCAR Championship. That’s a feat that hasn’t been accomplished since the sport went to its current Playoff Format nearly a decade ago. And, the Cup Series hasn’t seen a back-to-back champ since the Jimmie Johnson era.

With that said, Blaney surprised many with a strong postseason run after a lackluster regular season finish.

For the first half of the year, Blaney was a middle of the pack driver with not much to show for his 2024 resume. Yet, that changed at Iowa when he picked up his first win of the season. He then followed it up with a Pocono victory four weeks later.

Those two victories locked Blaney into the Playoffs and announced to the rest of the field that the #12 car was ready to truly defend his crown.

In the postseason, Blaney had some rough finishes over the first two rounds with crashes in Watkins Glen and Talladega. He was on the verge of being eliminated on more than one occasion over the first three rounds.

But Blaney, who I faded on multiple occasions, showed the heart of a champion by winning the Xfinity 500 race in Martinsville to advance to the Final 4. He edged out Elliott and Larson who were both fighting to move on.

Unfortunately, Blaney’s second half run ended in Phoenix as he came up short in beating out his Penske teammate in Joey Logano.

Currently, the #12 car is listed as the third odds-on favorite with sportsbooks. However, I think Blaney should get the edge over Bell at the very least. I’m not the biggest of Blaney fans, but he’s won a championship, finished runner-up in 2024, and is less than two years older than Bell.

In other words, Blaney is just entering his prime and is definitely going to be a Championship contender for the next several years.

A potential betting strategy for Blaney next year, is to let him get off to a slow start once again and then ride his second half momentum.

Denny Hamlin +700

• Wins: 3
• Top 5: 11
• Top 10: 18
• 2024 Finish: 8^th
• Career Best: 3^rd in 2014 and 2021.

I’ve labeled Denny Hamlin this on more than one occasion, but for me, Hamlin is always the bride’s maid but never the bride. In other words, he’s always close to being a Champion but never wins it.

Over the first half of 2024, Hamlin was the best driver along with Larson. The #11 car had three wins in the first 1/3^rd of the season at Bristol, Richmond and Dover. He tallied five consecutive Top 5 finishes heading into the summer and appeared to be on his way to a 4^th Championship 4 appearance in the last six postseasons.

Unfortunately, Hamlin fell short in the Round of 8 just like Larson, Elliott and others. He put together an eight-race streak of Top 14 finishes. Yet, while he was steadily finishing in the Top 10, others were winning and finishing higher on stages.

Ultimately, Hamlin couldn’t keep up with the rest of the top drivers and he faded to an 8^th place finish on the season, which was his lowest result since an 11^th in 2019. It’s his second lowest finish since 2015, which was the second year of this current Playoff format.

At 43, I think Hamlin’s days as a true Championship contender are over. In fact, he has a better shot at winning a title as a car owner (23XL Racing) than as a driver. I would avoid betting on Hamlin for this NASCAR futures bet. If anything, take a flier on his drivers in Reddick and Bubba Wallace, over the #11 car.

William Byron +700   

• Wins: 3
• Top 5: 13
• Top 10: 21
• 2024 Finish: 3^rd
• Career Best: 3^rd in 2023 and 2024

William Byron completed another strong season as he’s becoming one of the best drivers in the Cup Series. For the second straight year, Byron finished 3^rd on the season.

Although his numbers dipped from last year’s breakout, Byron still finished with three wins, two less Top 5s and the same amount of Top 10s as last year.

Byron kicked off the 2024 season with a Dayton 500 win, which is the second biggest prize in NASCAR outside of the championship. He also won in Texas and the spring Martinsville race.

Then Byron seemed to stall out compared to the rest of the field. He quickly fell down the standings and wasn’t much of a thought to win the 2024 Championship.

However, that all changed after he luckily advanced to the Round of 12. Starting in that round, Byron would go on to score seven straight Top 6 finishes to close out the Playoffs. Four of those results were Top 3 finishes including the Championship Race where he finished third behind Logano and Blaney.

I was so impressed with Byron’s consistency that I picked him to win the Championship by winning the Championship Race in Phoenix. However, for the final two rounds, I also kept telling bettors to take a flier on Logano because his odds were juicy and he was highly capable of winning the title.

Heading into next year, I rank Byron as the second-best driver at Hendrick Motorsports. That’s quite the statement considering I’m putting him ahead of Elliott (2020 Champ) and Alex Bowman. I still give Larson the title of captain and best driver at Hendrick, but Byron has closed the gap over the last two years.

In fact, over the last two years, Byron’s nine wins are just one shy of Larson’s 10 race wins. However, Byron has seven more wins than Elliott and Bowman combined.

I have Byron as one of my Top 5 drivers heading into next year and he’s definitely worthy of consideration for winning the 2025 Cup Series Championship.

Joey Logano +900

• Wins: 4
• Top 5: 7
• Top 10: 13
• 2024 Finish: First
• Career Best: 2018, 2022, 2024 Champion

I’ve never shared this story before, but my son’s favorite driver is Joey Logano. He’s rooted for Logano for over the last 10 years all because the #22 was his number way back in kindergarten. So, we’ve always cheered for Logano throughout these years.

Now, he’s not my favorite driver as that label belongs to Larson. Yet, outside of Larson and Truex, Logano is one of the only other drivers that I’ve rooted for on a consistent basis since Dale Earnhardt Jr. retired. I will always be an Earnhardt fan from the old man to junior.

With that said, I do have Logano as one of my Top 5 drivers for the 2025 Cup Series season. And, I think his odds to win the 2025 NASCAR Championship should be higher than what they are now. In fact, I would list Logano just behind Larson for the second odds-on favorite spot.

Logano is a three-time Cup Series Champion and has won this crown in two of the last three seasons. Only his Team Penske teammate has a title in-between Logano’s two latest wins.

Now, I understand the criticism over Logano this year and how luck helped him advance through rounds. In fact, some would say that he was lucky to even have won at Nashville in late June. It was his only victory of the regular season, which happened to be one of the worst regular seasons of his career.

And, yet, the luck didn’t stop for Logano. He was fortunate to pull off his second victory of the season by winning the first Playoff race which took place in Atlanta.

However, we knew he had the luck of a leprechaun when Logano should’ve been eliminated at the conclusion of the Round of 12. Instead, Bowman was disqualified for a violation and the #22 car advanced.

Then Logano picked up his third win of the season, second in the Playoffs, by snagging victory in Las Vegas to kick off the Round of 8. He was the benefactor of a “perfect” caution that helped him win the race in the end.

Logano cruised through the next two weeks before winning the Championship Race in Phoenix and capturing his third Cup Series Championship.

Sure, luck helped Logano, as did a Playoff format that many critics thinks needs to be changed, but that doesn’t discount what he and his team accomplished. They won three of the 10 postseason races including the first and last Playoff events.

Can Logano win a second consecutive NASCAR Championship and third in the last four years? Is Logano the new Jimmie Johnson?

Best NASCAR Championship Betting Value

The following drivers offer betting value to win the NASCAR Cup Series Championship based on their current odds and previous racing success:

Chase Elliott +1000

• Wins: 1
• Top 5: 11
• Top 10: 19
• 2024 Finish: 7^th
• Career Best: 2020 Champion

Despite finishing 7^th, it’s safe to say that Chase Elliott had a disappointing season. In fact, it’s his second straight disappointing season in the Cup Series.

Elliott missed the Playoffs last year as he failed to qualify due to competing in just 27 of 36 races. So, he has an excuse for last year as it was injury related. However, this year, there’s no excuse for his poor results.

Not including last year’s incomplete season, Elliott had his lowest win total (1) since 2017 when he had zero. He also had his lowest Top 5s (11) and Top 10s (19) since 2019. Yet, that year, Elliott did have three wins but finished 10^th.

Elliott is still considered one of the best road course drivers in the sport. Yet, he was unable to win a road race in 2024. In fact, in the Playoffs, Elliott struggled at the road courses based on his standards.

With that said, I’m not ready to rule out Elliott as a contender in 2025. His odds place him well behind the favorites above. The flip side is that his odds offer better value than the favorites above.

Keep in mind, Elliott has already won a NASCAR Championship (2020). That year, he won five races. Additionally, Elliott has made it to the Final 4 in three Playoffs over the last five years.

This is a driver, on a great team, that is in his prime and can still race with the best of them. I have faith that the #9 team and Hendrick Motorsports as a whole, will help turn things around for the former champ.

Chase Briscoe +2000

• Wins: 1
• Top 5: 3
• Top 10: 9
• 2024 Finish: 14^th
• Career Best: 9^th in 2022

Some of you might be surprised that I’m listing Chase Briscoe as one of the two best value bets based on the 2025 NASCAR Championship opening odds. Well, before you pass out from the shock of it all, let me give you a few reasons why Briscoe needs to be on your radar heading into the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series season.

The biggest reason why Briscoe offers value and should be on your radar next year is due to the fact that he’s heading to Joe Gibbs Racing next year. Along with Hendrick, JGR is the best team in the Cup Series. So, getting a spot on one of the elite teams speaks volumes about Briscoe.

Yet, don’t take my word on it. Joe Gibbs made the following comments about Briscoe joining his racing organization:

“The most important thing we (have) is our people and the people that you have on your team. And so for us really here, it always starts with character. You’re always looking at what kind of a person you’re getting. … But also, we have to win. So we came down to the end. We think Chase can win. And so that’s where we are and it’s a thrill for us to have him coming on board.”

For his career, Briscoe has two Cup Series victories, 11 Xfinity Series wins and two Craftsman Tuck Series wins. He’s made the Playoffs in two of the last three seasons and twice in his four-year career as a full-time Cup Series driver.

Briscoe solidified a spot in the postseason by winning the final race of the regular season – the Cook Out Southern 500 from Darlington.

Unfortunately, Briscoe wasn’t able to advance out of the opening round. However, he’s moving from Stewart-Haas Racing to Joe Gibbs Racing where the cars and teams are better.

I would not be surprised if this move cements Briscoe as a Top 10 driver next year and a Playoff contender. To me, that screams betting value.

Top Longshot To Win NASCAR Championship

Alex Bowman (+3300) is my top longshot choice to win the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series Championship. Many of the reasons why I like Briscoe to have success next year, are the same for why I think Bowman can have success in 2025. He drivers for Hendrick Motorsports which is one of the two elite racing teams in the sport today.

Bowman finished 9^th this year, but as we covered above, he should’ve advanced to the Round of 8. Unfortunately, he was disqualified and Logano advanced. And, as they say, the rest is history.

Nevertheless, Bowman picked up his momentum in the Playoffs. He had two Top 9 finishes in the opening round and a 10.6 average finish which was notably higher than his 14.8 average finish on the season.

If it weren’t for the DQ, Bowman would’ve advanced to the Round of 8 where he finished with an 8.3 average finish, two Top 7 finishes, and three Top 13 finishes in the round. There’s a chance that he could’ve advanced to the Final 4 if given the chance.

Bowman is clearly the 4^th best driver for Hendrick. However, he does have eight wins in his Cup Series career with six of those coming over the last four seasons. Additionally, he had his best marks for Top 5 (8) and Top 10 (17) finishes in his career so far.

I think Bowman will be extra motivated heading into next season considering his DQ and strong postseason finish. Let’s not discount that Bowman still finished 9^th on the year. All four Hendrick Motorsports drivers finished in the Top 10. I expect that trend to continue next year.

What About Kyle Busch or Brad Keselowski?

Two former champs will both be in their 40s next year and they both are coming off highly disappointing seasons.

For Kyle Busch, he failed to make the Playoffs since the current format started in 2014. Even worse, he failed to pick up a win for the first time since 2004. In fact, he finished with his lowest season totals since 2004, which was his first year competing part time in the Cup Series.

After the conclusion of the season, Busch tweeted the following statement:

“Arguably the toughest year of my career. Full of trials, n heartbreaks. I know my RCR guys r gonna get after it this winter n we’ll come back stronger nxt season. Grateful for all of our partners, helping us do what we love. Thx Rowdy Nation for sticking w me. Y’all r the best.”

Unfortunately, I don’t see Busch returning to championship contender status. I think his best days are behind him. He might be able to get back up to Denny Hamlin status, a driver in his 40s that still wins races, but that’s as high as it goes for Busch.

I feel the same way about Brad Keselowski as well. Keselowski won the championship in 2012, but has not been a contender for another title since then, except for 2020 when he finished 2^nd. He was 4^th in 2017, but Martin Truex Jr. won the championship that year.

Keselowski at least made the Playoffs this year and won a race. Both feats were too difficult for Busch to accomplish. Yet, Keselowski was really only a contender in three or four races at the most this season.

Since leaving Team Penske, Keselowski’s success has fallen off a cliff and I don’t see things turning around. Keselowski didn’t win a race in 2022 and 2023. In fact, he has just two wins in the last four years. Busch has six wins in the last four years.

I think both drivers will be lucky to get into the winner circle more than once next year. Like we see in sports on a regular basis, the old guard slowly fades away and the new guard takes over.

Like Truex this year, I think Keselowski and Busch have one foot in retiring from full-time racing. I wouldn’t be surprised if we see one or both of them announce this by the 2026 season.

Who Wins the 2025 NASCAR Championship?

My Top 5 drivers heading into the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series season are Larson, Bell, Byron, Logano, and Blaney. In other words, the three top teams (JGR, Hendrick, Penske) will contend for another NASCAR Championship.

Team Penske have won the last three Cup Series Championships with Logano winning in 2022 and 2024, while Blaney snagged the 2023 Championship and finished 2^nd this year. Despite these two not winning many races during the regular season (3), compared to JGR and Hendrick, Penske flexes their muscles at the right time – the Playoffs.

Prior to Penske’s run, Hendrick Motorsports captured two titles in a row when Elliott won in 2020 and Larson in 2021. Hendrick also snagged one in 2016 with Jimmie Johnson.

Joe Gibbs Racing has two championships since the current format was implemented in 2014. JGR won both titles with Kyle Busch. They came in 2015 and 2019.

Of the three top Cup Series teams, I put JGR in third for next year’s championship potential. For starters, you can’t put this team above Penske when they haven’t won a title since 2019. Additionally, none of their current drivers (Bell, Hamlin, Gibbs, Briscoe) have won a Cup Series Championship.

Despite winning the last three Cup Series Championships, I have Penske ranked as the second-best team. They really only have success with Blaney and Logano. Yes, that has equated to four titles since 2018, but that doesn’t guarantee that they will win it next year.

The team that has the best shot of winning the title next year is Hendrick Motorsports. Despite having not won since 2021, all four drivers finished in the Top 9 of the standings. And, since Elliott’s 2020 title, Hendrick has had drivers compete in the Final 4 race each season. This year, it was Byron.

To me, Kyle Larson is still the best driver in the Cup Series. Yet, I think William Byron has a chance to become one of the best and contend for another title. I also think both Elliott and Byron will rebound from disappointing finishes and statistical seasons.

With that in mind, Larson is my choice to win next year. Sure, things can change between now and February 2025, when the season begins. And, yes, things will definitely change by next fall when the 2025 Playoffs begin. But if there’s one driver with the potential to win each week, and to win a title, it’s definitely Larson.

Bet: Kyle Larson (+500)

Recent NASCAR Champions

The following list only includes the winners during the current Playoff format, which began in 2015: