Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies Picks and Predictions September 7th 2024

First pitch for Saturday’s Phillies vs. Marlins matchup is set for 4:10 PM ET from loanDepot Park in Miami. The Phillies are 85-56 this season, and they have won six straight games, putting them in 1st place in the NL East. Miami is 52-89 and they are +198 on the money line today. The over/under line is currently 8.5 runs.

NSPPH has Phillies money line odds of -240, while the Marlins are the heavy underdogs at +198. Aaron Nola is starting for the Phillies, and he is facing off against Darren McCaughan. Miami is currently on a two-game losing streak.

Philadelphia vs. Miami Key Information

• Teams: Phillies at Marlins
• Where: loanDepot Park Miami
• Date: Saturday, September 7th
• Betting Odds PHI -240 | MIA +198 O/U 8.5

The Phillies Can Win If…

Right-hander Aaron Nola is starting for the Phillies today as he faces the Marlins on the road. Nola has made 28 starts this year and has a record of 12-6 with an ERA of 3.29. This season, he has one complete game shutout and 18 quality starts. Nola’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.15, and he is averaging 8.46 strikeouts per nine innings. In his last outing, Nola finished with a no-decision, giving up two earned runs in six innings of work. Before that, he hadn’t allowed more than two earned runs in four straight starts.

So far this season, the Phillies are one of the league’s best offensive teams, averaging 4.9 runs per game (5th) and batting a collective .260 (3rd). They have been even better at home, averaging 5.1 runs per game, which is the 2nd best mark in the league. Overall, they are 8th in home runs and have the league’s 3rd best on-base percentage at .329.

Kyle Schwarber has been on a tear of late for the Phillies, going 11/24 in his last five games with five homers and 10 RBIs. For the season, he is hitting .249 with 33 homers, which is 9th in the league. His 92 RBIs are also good for 9th in the MLB. Schwarber’s 33 homers are the top mark on the team, with Bryce Harper’s 26 homers being the 2nd best mark for the Phillies. Harper comes into the game with a batting average of .284 and 78 RBIs.

• The Phillies are 8-2 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Phillies are 3-2 vs. the run line.
• Philadelphia has an over/under record of 4-5-1 in their last ten games.
• The Phillies have an average of 7.6 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten road games, the Phillies are 7-3
• Looking back across the Phillies last five games as the favorite, they are 5-0
• Philadelphia has gone 1-2 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Phillies have averaged 6.7 runs per game on offense

The Marlins Can Win If…

Miami is giving the start to right-hander Darren McCaughan today vs. the Phillies. He has made one start and six appearances this season and has a record of 0-0 with an ERA of 8.24. McCaughan’s WHIP for the season is 1.98. In his last outing, he faced the Giants and finished with a no-decision, giving up three earned runs in four innings of work. Looking back at his last three outings, McCaughan has finished with a no-decision in all three and has allowed at least one homer in each appearance. Per nine innings, he has 4.58 walks and 4.58 strikeouts.

The Marlins offense has been one of the worst in the league this season, averaging just 3.8 runs per game, which is the worst mark in the league. They have been slightly better at home, averaging 4 runs per game. Miami is also near the bottom of the league in home runs and on-base percentage. As a team, the Marlins are batting just .239.

Jake Burger and Jesús Sánchez have been the Marlins’ top power threats this season, with 25 and 17 home runs, respectively. Burger also leads the team with 60 RBIs, while Sánchez is 2nd with 58. Derek Hill and Otto Lopez have been swinging the bat well of late, with Hill going 5/18 with three homers in his last six games and Lopez hitting .308 over his last 10 games.

• The Marlins are 5-5 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Marlins are 2-3 vs. the run line.
• Miami has an over/under record of 4-6 in their last ten games.
• The Marlins have an average of 3.4 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten home games, the Marlins are 5-5
• Looking back across the Marlins last five games as the favorite, they are 3-2
• Miami has gone 1-2 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Marlins have averaged 4.3 runs per game on offense

The Lean

Today’s Phillies vs. Marlins matchup should be a low-scoring game, but with the line sitting at 8.5 runs, we are still leaning towards taking the over. As for who we like on the money line, we are leaning towards the Marlins to come out on top. Darren McCaughan is our lowest projected starter of the day in terms of strikeouts, but we still like the Marlins to pick up the win. Aaron Nola is 19th in our projections in terms of strikeouts.

Phillies Look to Keep Winning Streak Alive Despite Injuries Against the Marlins

The Philadelphia Phillies are on fire with a six-game winning streak, and they’re inching closer to their first division title since 2011. Sitting pretty with an 85-56 record, the Phillies have been dominating the National League East. But as they prepare to take on the Miami Marlins in the third of a four-game series, a few injury concerns are hanging over the team.

Injury Setbacks Threaten Phillies’ Hot Streak

While the Phillies are riding high, they’re not without their challenges. Injuries are threatening to slow down their momentum. Third baseman Alec Bohm has been on the injured list since August 29 with a strained left hand, and things aren’t progressing as quickly as the team hoped. Manager Rob Thomson isn’t taking any chances.

“We’re being cautious,” Thomson said. “We want to make sure we’re not rushing him back too soon. Hopefully, another 10 days and he’ll be good to go.”

On top of that, catcher J.T. Realmuto, a former Marlins player, got hit with a left knee contusion during Friday’s massive 16-2 win over Miami. Realmuto fouled a ball off his knee, tried to stick it out, but was replaced by Garrett Stubbs in the fourth inning. Stubbs, who was already lined up to start on Saturday, took over but went 0-for-3 with an RBI.

“J.T.’s fine,” said Thomson, sounding optimistic about his recovery. “A day off will do him some good.”

Phillies’ Bench Steps Up When It Counts

Despite losing two key players, the Phillies’ depth is shining. Kody Clemens, who’s filling in for Bohm at third base, put on a show on Friday, going 3-for-6 with an RBI double. Having solid backups like Clemens will be crucial as the team aims for the division title and gears up for the postseason.

Garrett Stubbs, even though he didn’t have much luck at the plate, did a solid job behind it, managing the pitching staff effectively. The Phillies have been able to count on their bench to step up when needed, and it’s been a huge part of their recent success. Injuries are always tough, but this team is showing they can handle adversity and still keep winning.

Marlins Struggling with Pitching Woes

On the other side of the field, the Miami Marlins are going through a rough patch. With a 52-89 record, their season has been one long slog of injuries and trades that have left their pitching staff in tatters.

Their latest setback came on Friday when starting pitcher Edward Cabrera was scratched due to a migraine. That left manager Skip Schumaker scrambling, turning to rookie Austin Kitchen for his first big-league start. Unfortunately for the Marlins, Kitchen struggled against the Phillies’ high-powered offense, giving up seven runs (six earned) and nine hits in just two innings.

“I got the call around 5:30 p.m.,” Schumaker said. “(Cabrera) called the trainer saying he had a migraine and was heading to the hospital. We had to adjust quickly, and it turned into a bullpen game. It wasn’t easy, but our guys did their best.”

The Marlins’ bullpen was already stretched thin, and the situation only got worse when they had to use five different relievers, including outfielder David Hensley, to cover the final two innings. Schumaker knows the team is in a tough spot without fresh arms to bring in.

Marlins’ Depleted Rotation a Major Concern

Miami’s pitching woes are far from over. They’ve been hit hard by injuries, losing key starters like former Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara, Eury Perez, Jesus Luzardo, and Braxton Garrett. The Marlins also traded away Trevor Rogers and have been without other important pitchers like Sixto Sanchez and Ryan Weathers.

To make matters worse, the bullpen has been decimated by trades that sent closer Tanner Scott and relievers A.J. Puk, Huascar Brazoban, and JT Chargois to other teams. Injuries to Andrew Nardi and Anthony Bender have left Miami’s relief staff seriously undermanned.

Looking ahead to Saturday, the Marlins are starting 28-year-old right-hander Darren McCaughan, who holds an 8.24 ERA in 12 career appearances. This will be his third major league start, and he has yet to face the Phillies. With the way he’s been pitching lately, things aren’t looking great for Miami, especially with a bullpen running on empty.

Aaron Nola Poised to Take Advantage of Marlins’ Struggles

For the Phillies, they’re sending out veteran right-hander Aaron Nola, who’s had a strong season with a 12-6 record and a 3.29 ERA. Nola’s been a reliable workhorse for the Phillies, racking up double-digit wins for the sixth year in a row. Even though his career record against the Marlins (5-11) is less than stellar, his 2.97 ERA in 11 starts in Miami shows he can handle this matchup.

Nola’s most recent start saw him go six innings and give up just two runs against the Atlanta Braves, though he didn’t factor in the decision. The Phillies are hoping he can keep rolling and take full advantage of the Marlins’ struggling lineup and depleted pitching rotation.

Phillies’ Offense Keeps Rolling

The Phillies’ bats were on fire Friday, setting season highs in both runs (16) and hits (22). The offense is clicking at the right time, which bodes well as they push toward the playoffs.

With stars like Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, and Kyle Schwarber leading the charge, the Phillies have one of the most dangerous lineups in the league. They’ve been overwhelming opponents, and with the Marlins’ pitching staff in shambles, Saturday could be another big day for Philadelphia’s offense. Keeping the momentum going will be key as they look to extend their winning streak and cement their playoff spot.

Conclusion: Phillies in Control, Marlins Struggling to Keep Up

Even with some key injuries to Alec Bohm and J.T. Realmuto, the Phillies are in a great position to keep their winning streak alive and strengthen their hold on a playoff spot. Their depth, along with a favorable pitching matchup, puts them in the driver’s seat heading into Saturday’s game.

Meanwhile, the Marlins are in survival mode. With their rotation and bullpen stretched to the limit by injuries and trades, they’re facing an uphill battle. Darren McCaughan will have his work cut out for him against a red-hot Phillies lineup. Unless the Marlins can pull off something miraculous, it looks like their tough season will continue.