San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants Picks and Predictions September 7th 2024

At 8:40 PM ET, the Giants and Padres square off in an NL West matchup. This one is being played at PETCO Park in San Diego, and the Padres are the heavy favorites on the money line at -152. The money line odds for a Giants win are sitting at +129, and the over/under line is at 7 runs.

Logan Webb is starting for the Giants, and he is facing off against Dylan Cease for the Padres. San Francisco is currently 4th in the NL West, while the Padres are 2nd with a record of 81-62.

If you’re following the latest betting lines, make sure to review the MLB Odds to stay updated on the most current numbers.

San Francisco vs. San Diego Key Information

Teams: Giants at Padres
Where: PETCO Park San Diego
Date: Saturday, September 7th
Betting Odds SD -152 | SF +129 O/U 7

The Giants Can Win If…

Right-hander Logan Webb is on the mound for the Giants today as he faces the Padres on the road. This year, he has made 29 starts and has a record of 11-9 with a 3.43 ERA. Webb’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.20. In his last outing, he took the loss, giving up six earned runs in six innings of work. Before that, he had turned in three straight solid outings, giving up two earned runs or fewer in each of those starts. Webb has one complete game shutout this year and 18 quality starts. Per nine innings, he is averaging 7.55 strikeouts and just 2.16 walks.

San Francisco’s offense has been right around the league average this season, averaging 4.2 runs per game, which is 17th in the league. They have been an average home run hitting team and are batting .239 as a team. The Giants are also right around the league average in terms of on-base percentage and slugging percentage.

Matt Chapman and Heliot Ramos have been the Giants’ top power threats this season, with Chapman leading the team with 22 homers and Ramos right behind him at 20. Chapman also leads the team with 69 RBIs. Over his last five games, Mike Yastrzemski has gone 4/17 with two homers, but he has struck out 13 times in his last 17 at-bats. Tyler Fitzgerald is hitting .368 over his last five games.

For fans interested in betting on the game, check out this MLB Betting Guide for insights on wagering strategies.

The Giants are 3-7 in their last ten games.
Over their last five games, the Giants are 1-4 vs. the run line.
San Francisco has an over/under record of 4-5-1 in their last ten games.
The Giants have an average of 4.0 runs per game over their last five games.
Across their last ten road games, the Giants are 4-6
Looking back across the Giants last five games as the favorite, they are 3-2
San Francisco has gone 0-3 in their last three games as the underdog
In their ten most recent road games, the Giants have averaged 3.4 runs per game on offense

The Padres Can Win If…

Dylan Cease will be looking to bounce back from his last outing, where he finished with a no-decision. Against the Rays on September 1st, Cease went five innings, giving up three earned runs, and he issued three walks. Cease has made 29 starts this season and has a record of 12-10 with an ERA of 3.62. Looking at his overall numbers, Cease has a WHIP of 1.08 and opponents are batting .198 off him this year. Cease has one complete game shutout this year and 14 quality starts. Per nine innings, Cease is averaging 11.03 strikeouts.

As a team, the Padres are the top-hitting team in the league with a batting average of .264 and are also the top home run hitting team in the league. They have two players with over 20 home runs, with Manny Machado leading the team with 25 homers and Luis Arraez and Jurickson Profar each have 22. Machado’s 89 RBIs are the best mark on the team and 11th best in the MLB. Over his last 10 games, Machado is batting .302 with four homers.

Arraez has been hot of late, going 16/38 in his last nine games and is currently on a six-game hitting streak. For the season, he is batting .310 and has four homers. Jackson Merrill is also having a good season at the plate, as he is batting .290 and is 2nd on the team with 82 RBIs.

The Padres are 6-4 in their last ten games.
Over their last five games, the Padres are 2-3 vs. the run line.
San Diego has an over/under record of 4-5-1 in their last ten games.
The Padres have an average of 4.2 runs per game over their last five games.
Across their last ten home games, the Padres are 5-5
Looking back across the Padres last five games as the favorite, they are 4-1
San Diego has gone 2-1 in their last three games as the underdog
In their ten most recent road games, the Padres have averaged 5.2 runs per game on offense

The Lean

There should be no shortage of offense in today’s Giants and Padres matchup, and not only are we leaning towards the Giants to pick up the win, but we like our chances of this game going over the over/under line of 7 runs. The Giants have our 3rd highest team hits projection and 2nd highest runs scored projection. On the other side, Dylan Cease has the highest innings pitched projection among today’s starters.

Padres’ Manny Machado on the Verge of History in Crucial Matchup vs. Giants

For 50 years, Nate Colbert has held the crown as the San Diego Padres’ home run king. While other legendary players like Dave Winfield, Ken Caminiti, Phil Nevin, Adrian Gonzalez, Tony Gwynn, and even Fernando Tatis Jr. made their mark, none could top Colbert’s 163-home run record.

But that was until Friday night, when Manny Machado stepped up and tied Colbert’s long-standing record with two solo homers, leading the Padres to a 5-1 victory over the San Francisco Giants. Now, Machado is on the brink of rewriting the Padres’ history books, aiming to become the franchise’s undisputed home run leader.

At 32, Machado—who’s only been with the Padres for six seasons—has reached this moment faster than many would have guessed. “It’s a huge honor,” Machado said after the game. “I’ve only been here a short time, so to be in this position and a part of Padres history is something special.”

On Saturday night, he’ll get his first shot at breaking the record outright as the Padres face off against the Giants again. With both personal history and a playoff berth on the line, the stakes couldn’t be higher for Machado and his team.

Facing a Tough Opponent: Logan Webb

Standing between Machado and his historic moment is Giants’ ace Logan Webb, who’s set to start on the mound. Webb comes into the game with an 11-9 record and a 3.43 ERA this season. While he had a rough outing against the Miami Marlins last time out, giving up six runs over six innings, Webb has historically dominated the Padres. Over 12 career appearances, he’s posted an impressive 2.55 ERA and has allowed only two home runs across more than 70 innings.

Webb knows he needs to bounce back, especially after taking responsibility for his last loss. “Everyone did their job except for me today,” Webb said after the defeat. “I didn’t feel good about it. That one’s on me.”

However, despite Webb’s solid history against San Diego, Machado is riding a hot streak, and the Padres have momentum on their side. That combination makes this matchup even more intriguing as Machado faces one of his toughest challenges yet in his quest for the home run record.

Padres in the Heat of a Playoff Race

While Machado chases history, the Padres are chasing something just as important—a spot in the playoffs. Their win against the Giants on Friday pushed them 1.5 games ahead of the Arizona Diamondbacks for the National League’s top wild-card spot. On top of that, they’re inching closer to the NL West division title, trailing the Los Angeles Dodgers by just four games. Thanks to their season series win over the Dodgers, San Diego holds the tiebreaker if both teams finish with the same record.

Every game counts now, and Saturday’s matchup could help the Padres lock in home-field advantage for the first round of the playoffs. A win would also keep them hot on the heels of the Dodgers, who lost 3-1 to the Cleveland Guardians on Friday, opening the door for San Diego to make up ground in the division race.

Dylan Cease on the Mound for San Diego

To counter Webb, the Padres are sending out their ace, Dylan Cease. With a 12-10 record and a 3.62 ERA, Cease has been a reliable arm for San Diego this season. His track record against the Giants is equally impressive, boasting a 2.61 ERA across four career starts. Though Cease hasn’t yet earned a win against San Francisco in 2024—allowing four earned runs in two starts—he’s consistently kept them in check, giving the Padres a solid chance every time he takes the mound.

Cease is coming off a strong no-decision against the Tampa Bay Rays, where he allowed just three runs on two hits over five innings. With the Padres’ bullpen behind him, Cease will be looking to shut down San Francisco’s lineup and give Machado the chance to break the home run record in style.

Injury Watch: Jackson Merrill

One potential concern for the Padres heading into this critical stretch is the health of rookie sensation Jackson Merrill. Merrill, a contender for Rookie of the Year, suffered a left patella contusion after fouling a ball off his knee during Friday’s game. He had to leave the game in the sixth inning, but the good news is that X-rays came back negative. While his condition will be closely monitored, it’s unclear if he’ll be available for Saturday’s game, which could impact the Padres’ lineup as they push for the postseason.

A Night of History in the Making

All the ingredients are there for a memorable night at Petco Park. With Manny Machado on the verge of breaking the Padres’ all-time home run record and the team deep in the heat of a playoff race, the excitement is palpable.

Facing off against the Giants’ ace Logan Webb, Machado will have to work for his shot at making history. But with the Padres surging and Machado in peak form, fans have every reason to believe that Saturday night could be the moment they’ve been waiting for.

A win wouldn’t just secure Machado’s place in Padres lore; it would also strengthen San Diego’s playoff hopes as they continue their chase for home-field advantage and a possible division title. With so much at stake, all eyes will be on Machado as he takes aim at setting a new franchise record.