Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves Picks and Predictions September 10th 2024

At 6:45 PM ET, the Braves and Nationals face off in an NL East matchup. This one is taking place at Nationals Park in Washington, and the Braves are the betting favorite, with their money line odds sitting at -160. The Nationals are +135 on the money line, and the over/under line is at 8 runs.

Reynaldo Lopez is starting for the Braves, and he is facing off against MacKenzie Gore. The Braves are currently 3rd in the NL East, while the Nationals are 4th with a record of 64-79.

Atlanta vs. Washington Key Information

• Teams: Braves at Nationals
• Where: Nationals Park Washington
• Date: Tuesday, September 10th
• Betting Odds ATL -160 | WSH +135 O/U 8

The Braves Can Win If…

Braves starter Reynaldo López comes into today’s game with a record of 8-5 and an ERA of 2.04. Looking at his overall numbers, López has made 23 starts, and opponents are batting .219 this season. He has turned in 13 quality starts and is averaging 9.59 strikeouts per nine innings. In his last outing, López took the loss, giving up two earned runs in six innings of work. Before that, he had won two straight starts. López has been much better on the road, coming in with a record of 4-3 and an ERA of 2.34 compared to 4-2 with a 1.83 ERA at home.

For the season, the Braves are averaging 4.2 runs per game, which is 17th in the league. However, they have been a better offensive team on the road, averaging 4.6 runs per game. As a team, they are batting .240, which is 15th in the league, and are 5th in the league in home runs. The Braves are also one of the league’s best at avoiding strikeouts.

Marcell Ozuna has been one of the league’s best power hitters this season, as his 37 homers and 98 RBIs are both good for 5th in the league. He is also batting .304 for the season. Matt Olson is 2nd on the team with 25 homers but has a batting average of just .233.

• The Braves are 5-5 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Braves are 1-4 vs. the run line.
• Atlanta has an over/under record of 2-8 in their last ten games.
• The Braves have an average of 2.6 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten road games, the Braves are 6-4
• Looking back across the Braves last five games as the favorite, they are 2-3
• Atlanta has gone 1-2 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Braves have averaged 5.2 runs per game on offense

The Nationals Can Win If…

Washington is sending left-hander MacKenzie Gore to the mound today vs. the Braves. He has made 28 starts this season and has a record of 8-11 with an ERA of 4.32. Gore’s WHIP for the season is 1.50. In his last outing, he finished with a no-decision, going six innings and giving up one earned run on one homer vs. the Marlins. Looking back over his last three outings, Gore has finished with a no-decision in each one. He has allowed just one earned run in each of his last three outings. Against the Braves on August 23rd, he finished with a no-decision, going six innings and giving up one earned run. Gore has made eight quality starts this season.

Heading into today’s game, the Nationals offense is averaging 4.2 runs per game, which is 20th in the league. They have been a bit better on the road, averaging 4.3 runs per contest. As a team, they are batting .245, which is 12th in the league, and are 5th in the league in fewest strikeouts per game. However, they are near the bottom of the league in home runs and isolated power.

Luis Garcia Jr. comes into the game with a batting average of .285 and is 2nd on the team with 15 homers. CJ Abrams has gone deep 19 times this season but is hitting just .238. Over his last 8 games, Andres Chaparro has 3 homers and 10 RBIs, but is batting just .242 in that stretch.

• The Nationals are 4-6 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Nationals are 2-3 vs. the run line.
• Washington has an over/under record of 5-5 in their last ten games.
• The Nationals have an average of 4.6 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten home games, the Nationals are 5-5
• Looking back across the Nationals last five games as the favorite, they are 3-2
• Washington has gone 2-1 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Nationals have averaged 4.4 runs per game on offense

Braves Battling to Secure Final NL Wild-Card Spot

The Atlanta Braves are heading into a pivotal two-game series against the Washington Nationals, hoping to stay alive in the race for a National League wild-card spot. After a tough 1-0 loss to the Cincinnati Reds on Monday night, Atlanta (78-66) finds themselves trailing the New York Mets by just one game for that last playoff position.

Monday’s game saw the Braves waste a brilliant performance from Charlie Morton, who delivered 6 2/3 innings of one-run ball. Despite his efforts, Atlanta’s offense struggled, managing only two hits in the shutout loss. First baseman Matt Olson, who recorded both of those hits, urged the team to focus on the road ahead. “What’s done is done. All we can worry about is tomorrow.”

The Braves have been a bit inconsistent lately, going 5-6 in their last 11 games, while the Mets have been surging with a 10-1 run. This series in Washington is crucial as the Braves prepare for a tough four-game showdown against the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Reynaldo Lopez Set to Start for Braves

Reynaldo Lopez (8-5, 2.04 ERA) will take the mound for Atlanta on Tuesday, looking to keep his team’s playoff hopes alive. Since returning from a forearm injury, Lopez has been sharp, posting a 1.96 ERA in his last four starts. One of those outings came against the Nationals in late August, where he allowed just one run over six innings.

Lopez’s last start was another strong performance, where he struck out 11 batters and gave up only two solo home runs in six innings during a 2-0 loss to the Colorado Rockies. Despite the defeat, Lopez didn’t issue any walks and showed excellent control.

Historically, Lopez has struggled against the Nationals, with a 0-1 record and a 5.06 ERA in three starts. However, he’s been better this season, holding Washington to a 2.25 ERA in two outings.

Nationals Send MacKenzie Gore to the Mound

Facing off against Lopez will be MacKenzie Gore (8-11, 4.32 ERA), who has been in good form recently. Over his last three starts, Gore has gone 1-0 with a 2.00 ERA, including a stellar outing against the Miami Marlins where he allowed just one run on one hit over six innings.

Gore credits his recent success to a more aggressive mindset. “When I’m aggressive, I execute better,” Gore said. His numbers against the Braves reflect that aggression, as he has a 3-1 career record with a 3.09 ERA against Atlanta. This season, he’s been even better, going 2-0 with a 1.65 ERA in three starts against them.

Braves Offense Needs to Step Up

Atlanta’s bats went quiet on Monday, marking the 10th time they’ve been shut out since June. The Braves’ offense has been inconsistent over the past few weeks, and with their playoff chances hanging in the balance, they’ll need to find a spark.

Adding to the challenge, the Braves are without catcher Travis d’Arnaud, who left the team on Monday for the birth of his child. He is expected to rejoin the team for their upcoming series against the Dodgers, but for now, his absence leaves a gap in the lineup.

Nationals Looking to Play Spoiler

While the Washington Nationals (66-78) are out of the playoff picture, they have the opportunity to play spoiler as they host Atlanta. The Nationals have been struggling themselves, dropping a 7-3 game to the Pittsburgh Pirates on Sunday.

One bright spot for Washington has been shortstop CJ Abrams, who hit a leadoff home run in Sunday’s loss. Abrams has been mired in a slump since the All-Star break, hitting just .170 in his last 41 games, but he hopes his recent home run will turn things around. “You’ve just got to believe in yourself and keep working,” Abrams said after the game.

What’s at Stake

For the Braves, these two games against Washington are must-wins if they want to stay in the hunt for the final NL wild-card spot. With tough matchups ahead, including four games against the Dodgers, Atlanta needs to capitalize on this opportunity against the Nationals.

The Nationals, on the other hand, are looking to build some momentum for next season while potentially derailing the Braves’ playoff push. Players like Abrams have a chance to find their groove, while Gore will aim to continue his dominance against Atlanta.

Key Players to Watch

• Reynaldo Lopez (ATL): Lopez has been excellent since returning from injury, and the Braves need him to keep it going as they fight for a wild-card spot.
• MacKenzie Gore (WAS): Gore has been solid against the Braves this season and will be a key factor in Washington’s chances of playing spoiler.
• Matt Olson (ATL): Olson has been the Braves’ most reliable hitter lately, and with the offense sputtering, he’ll be counted on to provide the spark they need.
• CJ Abrams (WAS): After hitting a home run on Sunday, Abrams hopes to break out of his slump and make an impact in the series against Atlanta.

With the Braves’ playoff hopes hanging by a thread, Tuesday’s game against the Nationals is critical. Reynaldo Lopez will look to continue his strong run of form, while MacKenzie Gore hopes to extend his dominance over Atlanta. As the Braves fight to stay in the wild-card race and the Nationals aim to play spoiler, this series could have big implications for both teams.

The Lean

For a money-line pick, we would be leaning toward the Nationals to come out on top at home. As for how we would play the over/under line, we would go with the over, as this is projected to be the 3rd lowest-scoring game of the day, but the line is sitting at 8 runs. MacKenzie Gore has the highest strikeout projections on the day, and Reynaldo López has the 9th highest among today’s starters.