Philadelphia Phillies vs Tampa Bay Rays Picks and Predictions September 10th 2024

At 6:40 PM ET, the Rays and Phillies face off in an interleague matchup. This one is being played at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, and the Phillies are the heavy favorite on the money line at -167. The money line odds for the Rays are sitting at +142. The over/under line is currently at 7.5 runs.

Tampa Bay will be starting Taj Bradley, while the Phillies are sending Ranger Suarez to the mound. The Rays are 71-73 this season, while the Phillies are 86-58 and are first in the NL East. The Phillies are 4-1 in their last five games, while the Rays have won three of their last five.

Tampa Bay vs. Philadelphia Key Information

• Teams: Rays at Phillies
• Where: Citizens Bank Park Philadelphia
• Date: Tuesday, September 10th
• Betting Odds PHI -167 | TB +142 O/U 7.5

The Rays Can Win If…

Taj Bradley gets the start for the Rays today as he faces the Phillies on the road. He has made 21 starts this season and has a record of 6-10 with an ERA of 4.40. Bradley’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.21, and opponents are batting .232 off the right-hander this year. In his last outing, Bradley took the loss, giving up four earned runs in seven innings of work. Before that, he had given up at least three earned runs in three straight starts. Bradley has allowed a total of six earned runs in two of his past four outings.

Yandy Diaz has been one of the few bright spots in the Rays lineup this season, as he is batting .281 and has gone 9/20 in his last five games. Over this stretch, he has two homers and five RBIs. Diaz’s 64 RBIs are the best mark on the team, and he is 3rd on the team with 14 homers. Christopher Morel and Jose Siri are also 1-2 in homers for the Rays, but both players are batting under .200 for the season.

Overall, the Rays are one of the worst offensive teams in the league, as they are 28th in runs per game (3.9) and have the 22nd home run total in the league. As a team, they are batting just .231 and have the league’s 25th OPS. Tampa Bay’s team on-base percentage is also just 18th in the league.

• The Rays are 5-5 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Rays are 4-1 vs. the run line.
• Tampa Bay has an over/under record of 4-4-2 in their last ten games.
• The Rays have an average of 2.6 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten road games, the Rays are 4-6
• Looking back across the Rays last five games as the favorite, they are 3-2
• Tampa Bay has gone 2-1 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Rays have averaged 2.9 runs per game on offense

The Phillies Can Win If…

Ranger Suárez gets the start for the Phillies today and comes in with a record of 12-6 and an ERA of 2.90. Looking at his overall numbers, Suárez has made 23 starts, and opponents are batting .219 this season. He has one complete game shutout and 11 quality starts. In his most recent outing, Suárez picked up the win, going five innings and not giving up a run. Before that, he had given up at least one homer in three straight starts. Suárez’s ERA at home is 3.57 compared to 2.79 on the road.

Philadelphia’s offense is one of the best in the league this season, averaging 4.9 runs per game, which is 5th in the league. They are also among the league leaders in batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage. The Phillies have been even better at home this season, averaging 5 runs per game.

Over his last seven games, Kyle Schwarber has been on fire, going 13/30 with six home runs and 12 RBIs. This has helped him take over the team lead in homers (34) and RBIs (94). Schwarber’s eight-game hitting streak is the longest on the team. Alec Bohm and Bryce Harper are also having good seasons, with Bohm batting .290 and Harper at .285.

• The Phillies are 7-3 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Phillies are 2-3 vs. the run line.
• Philadelphia has an over/under record of 5-5 in their last ten games.
• The Phillies have an average of 5.8 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten home games, the Phillies are 6-4
• Looking back across the Phillies last five games as the favorite, they are 3-2
• Philadelphia has gone 1-2 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Phillies have averaged 6.9 runs per game on offense

Ranger Suarez’s Return: Cautious but Steady

The Philadelphia Phillies are taking it easy with All-Star lefty Ranger Suarez as he works his way back from injury, but he’s still delivering solid outings. On Tuesday night, Suarez will take the mound for Game 2 of a three-game series against the Tampa Bay Rays. His job? Build on the momentum from his controlled but impressive return to the Phillies’ rotation.

Suarez (12-6, 2.90 ERA) missed almost a month with lower back soreness, but since coming back in late August, he’s been showing signs of his pre-injury form. In his last three starts, he’s posted a 3.21 ERA. However, the Phillies are being smart with his workload — he hasn’t pitched more than five innings in those outings.

His last game against the Miami Marlins was a step in the right direction. Suarez tossed 82 pitches over five scoreless innings, allowing just three hits to secure the win. “He’s Ranger,” Phillies second baseman Bryson Stott said. “If he doesn’t have his sinker, he’s got seven other pitches… He’s smart and knows how to outthink hitters.”

Tuesday’s matchup pits Suarez against a Tampa Bay lineup that’s been struggling to score, managing just two runs or fewer in three of their last four games.

Rays’ Offense: Where’s the Spark?

Tampa Bay (71-73) is in a rough spot. Their offense has been sputtering, and Monday’s 2-1 loss to the Phillies in the series opener was another example of their struggles at the plate. Their only run came from a pinch-hit homer by Brandon Lowe in the ninth inning, almost robbing the Phillies of a win, but it wasn’t enough.

The Rays have dropped seven of their last 10 games, and their offensive slump has put extra pressure on their pitchers. If they want to stay alive in the playoff race, they’ve got to find some rhythm at the plate — fast.

Phillies Ride Momentum After Walk-Off Win

Monday’s game was a much-needed boost for the Phillies (86-58) after back-to-back losses over the weekend to the Miami Marlins, where they were outscored 19-6. But that’s behind them now. In the series opener against the Rays, Kody Clemens came through in the clutch, delivering a walk-off single in the ninth inning to drive in Bryce Harper and seal a 2-1 victory.

Phillies manager Rob Thomson knows how important it was to snap the losing streak. “They’re all big, but it’s good to get the momentum back,” Thomson said. “To come home, have the fans behind us, and win this ballgame — it could get us going again.”

One minor setback came when closer Carlos Estevez gave up Lowe’s game-tying home run in the ninth and later took a line drive off his leg. He’s day-to-day with a knee contusion, which could keep him out of Tuesday’s game.

Rays’ Taj Bradley: Looking to End the Slump

The Rays will hand the ball to 23-year-old right-hander Taj Bradley (6-10, 4.40 ERA), who’s been searching for a win over his last seven starts. His most recent outing, a loss to the Minnesota Twins, saw him give up two home runs in the first three innings before settling down to throw seven innings of solid ball. While Bradley showed resilience, he needs to cut down on the early mistakes if the Rays want to turn things around.

Tuesday’s game is a big test for Bradley as he faces a red-hot Phillies lineup that features slugger Kyle Schwarber, who’s been tearing it up with six home runs in his last seven games, including his 34th of the season on Monday. Schwarber has been on fire this month, recording hits in all eight games.

What’s on the Line?

For the Phillies, Tuesday’s game is another opportunity to keep their foot on the gas as they chase down a top playoff spot. Suarez’s continued comeback will be key as Philadelphia looks to keep building momentum. The Phillies have a powerful lineup, a solid bullpen, and they’re hoping Suarez can provide more innings as he regains full strength.

For the Rays, the stakes are even higher. They’ve been slipping in the standings and can’t afford to lose more ground in the playoff race. A strong outing from Bradley and some much-needed offensive production could help them stop the skid and stay in contention.

Tuesday night’s game between the Phillies and Rays promises to be another hard-fought battle. With Ranger Suarez continuing his comeback and Taj Bradley searching for consistency, both teams will need strong pitching performances. The Phillies are riding high after their walk-off win, while the Rays are desperate to get back on track. Can Tampa Bay’s offense wake up in time to stop Philadelphia, or will the Phillies keep rolling? All eyes are on this key matchup as the postseason looms.

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The Lean

Today’s game between the Rays and Phillies has the 2nd lowest combined runs projection and 4th lowest total hits projection. However, with the line sitting at 7.5 runs, we are leaning towards taking the over. As for who is going to take this one straight up, we have our lean on the Rays to pick up the win. Tampa Bay’s offense is our 6th highest projected strikeout team, and we have Ranger Suárez as the 8th lowest strikeout pitcher in today’s slate.