The Best NFL Parlays For Week 12

Many teams have a victory Monday to celebrate their win over the weekend and take a lighter approach to practice or cancel practice altogether. Well, we’re rolling into this week after a triumphant Week 11 where we nailed a five-leg parlay. And, we definitely had a victory Monday!

Last week, our top confident picks were the Detroit Lions and Houston Texans. Both teams won by at least 24 points. In the case of the Lions, they won by 46 points and return to our NFL parlay picks for this week as well.

In addition to those two teams, we also took the Green Bay Packers, Los Angeles Rams and Minnesota Vikings. The Rams and Vikings pulled away in the fourth quarter to allow us some breathing room. The Packers nearly ruined our five-team parlay ticket as they almost lost to the Bears by a last second field goal. Thankfully, things went our way and we score our first five-leg parlay win out of two tries.

In addition to the Lions, we are extremely high on the Kansas City Chiefs to bounce back this week. It’s going to be a bad day for the Panthers. We also love the Washington Commanders to crush the Dallas Cowboys. All three of those teams have our highest confidence.

The one game that is a tick lower in confidence is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers versus the New York Giants. With that said, the Giants are a mess and the Buccaneers are coming off a Bye Week where they face Tommy DeVito who replaces the benched Daniel Jones. Additionally, the Bucs need to put it in another gear to stay in reach of the Playoffs.

Let’s dive deeper into our NFL parlay picks for Week 12 and see what our free NFL parlay card is paying out this week.  

NFL Picks and Parlays

Monitor the NFL odds throughout the week. As the odds change, the parlay payouts will change as well. 

Team	Odds	Payout Per Leg	Confidence Level
Kansas City Chiefs	-600	NA	5/5
Washington Commanders	-525	$38.89	5/5
Detroit Lions	-380	$75.44	5/5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	-230	$151.72	4/5

NFL Parlay Picks

Our weekly NFL parlay picks are based on order of confidence. Additionally, you can choose any combination of these NFL football picks for your own parlay card or use them all for the total payout listed above. 

NFL Parlay Pick 1: Chiefs (-600) vs. Panthers (+450)

Last week, the Carolina Panthers were on a Bye Week and the Kansas City Chiefs suffered their first loss of the season as they dropped the game to the Buffalo Bills.

The Panthers are still a dysfunctional team that is struggling on both sides of the ball. It’s hard to imagine that this front office will stand still in the offseason when it comes to the coaching staff.

Additionally, I imagine many players are playing for their roster spots the rest of this season. Sure, the team will need to focus on developing Bryce Young, but they also need to determine which players are building blocks and which are dead weight.

In the case of the Chiefs, this team is all up in their feelings after losing to Buffalo. Yet, it’s a good thing for this franchise because they have extra motivation after the sting of losing. That’s bad news for the Panthers this weekend as Kansas City isn’t a team to mess with when playing angry.

KC is 4-1 on the road and will play their second consecutive game away from home. The Panthers are 2-3 at home and have won two games in a row. Keep in mind, one of those home wins was in Germany when they were listed as the home team.

These two teams have played against each other seven times. The Chiefs hold the advantage with a 5-2 series record. Additionally, KC has won three games in a row. They last played in 2020, and the Chiefs won 33 to 30. KC is 2-1 all-time in games at Carolina.

Why We Like The Kansas City Chiefs

The big picture goal is still intact for the Chiefs as they focus on winning a third Super Bowl in a row. A loss in Week 11 doesn’t stop that. If anything, that loss just motivates the Chiefs even more.

Carolina is in the wrong place at the wrong time. They will be a sacrificial lamb as the Chiefs come into town and blowout the Panthers.

I fully expect KC to win by double digits. The Panthers have arguably the worst defense in the league. They give up the most points at 31 ppg. Additionally, they give up the 4^th most yards at 386.9 ypg. Carolina allows 3.6 TDs per game which is dead last in the league.

The hits keep rolling for this defense as they are the worst run defense in the NFL. The Panthers allow 160.1 ypg, which bodes well for Hunt and company as they should lead this offense in chewing up yards.

The Panthers also allow 226.8 passing yards per game. Basically, whatever the Chiefs decide to do on offense, they should have success at. I expect big games by Hunt and Mahomes as they put up at least 24 points on the Panthers.

On the flip side, this KC defense was hailed as one of the best in the league. They had a bad day in Buffalo last weekend after giving up 30 points and failing to get a sack. I expect the KC defense to feast this weekend on Carolina who averages 16.7 ppg which is the 4^th lowest in the league.

The Carolina offense is going to have a long day as Chris Jones wreaks havoc on the offensive line and plays most of the game in the Panthers’ backfield.

Chiefs are winning this game by at least 10 or 14 points.

NFL Parlay Pick 2: Cowboys (+390) vs. Commanders (-550)

The Dallas Cowboys (3-7) have become the laughing stock of the league. This team was talking about Super Bowl aspirations in the preseason and are now looking as if they could end up with a Top 10 pick in the 2025 NFL Draft.

Sure, not having Dak Prescott is going to play a big part in this team probably losing the rest of their games this season. However, there’s plenty of blame to go around. From Jerry Jones to Mike McCarthy and his staff, this franchise is in disarray.

Like the Panthers, the Cowboys will make some major changes this offseason which includes firing McCarthy. In fact, he’s lucky that the team doesn’t make him the next coach fired.

The Washington Commanders (7-4) have been a pleasant surprise this season. They weren’t expected to be a winning team, let alone contend for the NFC East division. Yet, the Commanders are currently a game back of the Eagles in the division but would make the Playoffs as a Wild Card team if the postseason started today.

Dallas is 3-2 in road games but have lost their last two. Additionally, they’re mired in a five-game losing streak. The Commanders are 4-1 at home but have dropped two games in a row. This weekend’s divisional matchup versus the Cowboys is a “get right” game for Washington.

Dallas holds a commanding lead in this rivalry with a 78-48-2 record. Additionally, the Cowboys have won two games in a row against the Commanders.

Yet, I don’t see a scenario where Dallas wins this matchup on Sunday. You can throw all of those past stats out the window.

Why We Like The Washington Commanders

Even before Prescott suffered a season ending injury, the Cowboys were in disarray. They have the second worst run game in the league at 81.7 yards per game. Washington gives up the third most rushing yards per game at 149.9 ypg. Unfortunately for Dallas, they still have no shot at success in the running game.

Washington will load up the box and force Cooper Rush to beat them, which will not happen. The Commanders have the 5^th best pass defense and are 7^th in sacks. Dallas averages 18.7 ppg which won’t cut it this weekend. Defensively, the Commanders have a big advantage.

Washington also has a big advantage on the offensive side as well. The Dallas defense ranks 31^st in points allowed (29.3 ppg), TDs allowed (3.4), and rushing yards allowed (151.0 ypg).

The Commanders are a run first team that averages 148 rushing yards per game which is 6^th best in the league. I fully expect Brian Robinson and company to put up big numbers on this awful Dallas team.

This will take the pressure off Jayden Daniels who should have an easy day managing the offense and making timely throws.

Look for Washington to run early and often, which will open up the play action pass. I would be surprised if Dallas can keep this game within seven points. I expect another blowout loss for the Cowboys.  

NFL Parlay Pick 3: Lions (-280) vs. Colts (+300)

As mentioned, the Detroit Lions (9-1) was our top pick last weekend at home versus the Jaguars. I predicted a 30-point victory. And, yet, I came up well below their 46-point win.

The Lions have moved into the top spot for Super Bowl odds and weekly power rankings following the Chiefs loss. In fact, Detroit was considered the top team even before KC suffered their first defeat.

Detroit’s offense is a juggernaut that steamrolls the competition. We’ll get more into that unit, in the section below. Currently, the Lions are a perfect 5-0 on the road. In fact, they just won three road games in their last five outings: Vikings, Packers and Texans.

All three of those teams are better than the Colts (5-6) who are 3-2 at home. Indy is fighting for the final Wild Card spot in the AFC but remain on the outside looking in even after an impressive road victory over the New York Jets last weekend.

That victory snapped a three-game losing skid where Indy suffered defeats to the Bills, Vikings and Texans. Two of those three teams, the Lions just beat over the last month.

These two franchises have played against each other 44 times and the Colts hold a slight advantage with a 22-20-2 record. Additionally, Indy has won four of the last five meetings.

With that said, the Lions are a far better team and I like them to go into Indianapolis to pick up another victory. In fact, Indy residents better hide the women and children because this packs of Lions is going to devour the hometown heroes.

Why We Like The Detroit Lions

The Colts are a decent team, but decent isn’t going to get the job done this weekend. For starters, Indy’s defense is going to be overmatched in this game.

Indy might only give up 22.7 ppg, but they’re going to struggle against the league’s top scoring offense who averages 33.6 points per game.

Typically, the Colts play a bend, but don’t break defense. Well, that defense is going to break this weekend.

Indy allows 143.1 rushing yards per game, which is the 5^th most rushing yards allowed per game. Detroit has the 3^rd best run offense at 152.2 yards per game. You can expect both Montgomery and Gibbs to have big outings this weekend.

Indy also allows 231.5 passing yards per game which is the 7^th most in the league. Detroit has the 6^th best passing attack at 242.5 yards per game.

So, whether they pass or throw the ball, Detroit will eat up this Indy defense. If the Colts can keep the game within single digits, then it’s a moral victory.

NFL Parlay Pick 4: Buccaneers (-230) vs. Giants (+190)

Of our four picks, this one has the least confidence. With that said, we still like the matchup as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-6) are coming off a Bye Week and face Tommy DeVito.

The New York Giants (2-8) decided to finally bench Daniel Jones. In fact, they’ve made him the third-string QB moving forward. It’s safe to say that Jones’ time in New York is about to come to an end.

Speaking of “in New York,” the Giants play in New Jersey and they’re 0-5 at home on the season. The Bucs are 2-2 in road games.

Both teams come into this weekend’s game on losing streaks. The Buccaneers have dropped four games in a row. Yet, it needs to be put into perspective the teams that they lost to: 49ers, Chiefs, Falcons and Ravens.

The Giants have lost five games in a row. Although some of those defeats were against teams like the Commanders, Steelers and Eagles, they did lose to Carolina in Germany via an overtime field goal.

The difference between the two teams’ losing streaks is that New York is just a bad team. However, the Bucs have been losing because they suffered crushing injuries as their top two receivers in Godwin and Evans have been out. The latter could be returning this weekend, which would be a big boost.

These two teams have played against each other 25 times. The Giants hold the advantage with a 16-9 record. However, the Bucs have won the last two meetings between these teams.

Why We Like The Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Let me start by saying that I don’t believe a change in QB is going to help the Giants win this weekend. It might not make them as bad, but DeVito isn’t a big step up from Jones. Additionally, this offensive line is still subpar and they will be susceptible to Tampa’s blitzing.

If Evans plays, then this game won’t be nearly as close. If he doesn’t then I think the Giants can keep this to a one-score contest.

Even though the Bucs could be operating at a lower level in their passing game, they still have a good shot at winning due to their rushing attack. In fact, this is how I see the Tampa offense having a lot of success on Sunday.

The Giants have the 4^th worst rushing defense in the league as they give up 147.1 yards per game. The Bucs have the 10^th best rushing attack at 125.3 yards per game. However, it’s gotten better over the last month or so with the duo of Irving and White leading the charge.

I think the Bucs run all over this Giants defense, control the clock, put up points and force DeVito to try and win the game. That won’t happen.

I like the Bucs to win by at least four points.

NFL Parlay Total Payout

If you decide to take all four legs of our parlay, a $100 wager will net you $151.72 in winnings and a total payout of $251.72.

The Chiefs, Lions and Commanders are “no-brainers” when it comes to our NFL parlay picks. I wouldn’t be surprised if each team won by two or more touchdowns this weekend.

The Lions are the best team in football and will dominate the Colts this weekend. The Chiefs will rebound in a big way from their first loss. I expect KC to steamroll the Panthers as they play with a chip on their shoulder. I expect both the Lions and Chiefs to have put their games away by the fourth quarter.

The Commanders will be at home where they are very difficult to beat. Dallas is a bad team from ownership down to the on-field product. Washington’s rushing attack is going to chew up the Cowboys defense. Offensively, I don’t expect to see much out of Dallas. This could be over by halftime.

Bake Mayfield will outplay Tommy DeVito and the Bucs’ ground game will plow through a weak Giants rushing unit. Eventually, Tampa’s defense will force DeVito to make some mistakes and seal the win.