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Week 2 of the NFL season was a chaotic one. Not only did many NFL bettors lose on the favorites this past weekend, but I’m willing to proclaim that many Survivor Pools were destroyed as well. The Baltimore Ravens, Dallas Cowboys, San Francisco 49ers, Philadelphia Eagles and Detroit Lions were all big favorites that lost.
With that said, I believe we’ll get back to normalcy with the favorites coming out on top. In our Week 3 parlay, we’re featuring three home teams taking on dreadful opponents. The one road team is a divisional matchup in the same state.
After two weeks, Home Teams are only 17-15 SU. However, the favorites still remain 21-11 SU on the season despite a rough Week 2. Surprisingly, Away Favorites are 6-2 SU on the season. That bodes well for our San Francisco 49ers pick.
Let’s dive deeper into our NFL parlay picks for Week 3 and see what our free NFL parlay picks are paying out this week.
NFL Picks and Parlays
Monitor the NFL odds throughout the week. As the odds change, the parlay payouts will change as well.
| Team | Odds | Payout Per Leg | Confidence Level |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills | -255 | NA | 5/5 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | -375 | $76.35 | 4.5/5 |
| Cleveland Browns | -275 | $140.48 | 4.5/5 |
| San Francisco 49ers | -370 | $205.47 | 4.5/5 |
NFL Parlay Picks
Our weekly NFL parlay picks are based on order of confidence. Additionally, you can choose any combination of these NFL parlay picks for your own parlay card or use them all for the total payout listed above.
NFL Parlay Pick 1: Jaguars (+215) vs. Bills (-255)
The top sports betting sites have the Buffalo Bills (-255) listed as a sizable betting favorite over the Jacksonville Jaguars (+215) on Monday Night Football in Week 3.
This MNF game is actually the first of two that will be played on September 23. The other is the Commanders vs. Bengals, which you can see is also on our Week 3 Parlay card.
The Jaguars have stumbled out the gate with losses to the Dolphins and the Browns. Their Week 1 loss to Miami was a last second field goal after leading the entire game. Their Week 2 loss was an abysmal performance at home against the Browns. In fact, the Week 2 performance has unveiled many concerns about this Jacksonville offense.
The Buffalo Bills have not only won both of their games so far, but they have looked very impressive along the way. In fact, their last six quarters of football have been extremely impressive as they’ve been unstoppable on offense while displaying a dominating defense despite the early season injuries.
Bills Mafia will be out in full force on Monday Night Football, so you can expect the Jaguars to have some issues with the crowd noise. Additionally, Buffalo is looking for revenge from last year’s loss to the Jags in London that also saw the team lose multiple defenders for most of the year.
Why We Like The Bills
Due to the win last year, the Jaguars pulled ahead in the all-time series with a 10-9 record. They’ve now won two in a row against the Bills and three out of the last four.
However, not only is Buffalo by far the better team with the eye test, but the stats back it up as well.
Currently, Buffalo is scoring 32.5 ppg on offense. They’ve been so efficient that Buffalo hasn’t had to put up big numbers in their two wins. They rank in the middle of the pack for most offensive categories but I expect that to change on Monday.
The Jaguars give up 245.5 passing yards per game which is 30th in the league. Look for Josh Allen to have a big passing performance and the Bills to mix in the run to keep the Jags on their heels. Last week against Miami, the Bills ran all over the Dolphins. The week prior, Allen diced up the Cardinals defense.
Buffalo’s offense will find their opponent’s weakness and exploit it. Clearly, the Jags can’t stop the pass, which was evident in their loss to the Dolphins in Week 1. They played against a struggling Browns in Week 2 and gave up roughly 300 total yards. Buffalo should easily eclipse that mark.
On the other side of the ball, the Jags will need to lean on their running game to have any hope of moving the sticks. Buffalo has put together a fierce pass rush in addition to causing turnovers.
Trevor Lawrence is going to be harassed all game long and the Bills are going to cruise to a double-digit win.
NFL Parlay Pick 2: Commanders (+305) vs. Bengals (-375)
The Washington Commanders (+305) picked up their first win of the season when they defeated their NFC East divisional rival the New York Giants in a field goal battle. Washington kicked seven field goals to beat the Giants 21-18.
The Cincinnati Bengals (-375) fell to 0-2 on the season for the third straight year. However, they should’ve beat the Chiefs on the road in Week 2, but their defense made some questionable plays including a late pass interference that put KC in line for a game winning field goal.
Additionally, you have to question why the Bengals rushed only three defenders on the 4th down play that led to the pass interference. Mahomes had all day to throw the ball.
With that said, these two teams will meet in the second game of Monday Night Football in Week 3. Additionally, this matchup features two former LSU Tigers quarterbacks in Washington’s Jayden Daniels and Cincy’s Joe Burrow.
Why We Like The Bengals
These two teams have played against each other 11 times and the series is tied at 5-5-1. Washington won their last meeting, which took place in 2020. Prior to that, the Bengals went 3-0-1 in the previous four matchups.
The Bengals have yet to hit their full stride on offense. Injuries to Tee Higgins has limited this unit from their full potential. Yet, they looked solid against the Chiefs defense on the road.
Washington’s defense has allowed 27.5 ppg, which is 29th in the league. They’re also giving up 120.5 rushing yards per game (16), 227.5 passing yards per game (22), and 348 total yards per game (21). In other words, this is a “get right” game for the Bengals.
Over the last three years, Cincy has started 0-2 and bounced back in a big way. I expect that trend to continue this week at home on Monday Night Football.
Washington has put up 176.5 rushing yards per game which is 6th best in the league. The Bengals have given up 159.5 rushing yards per game which is 26th overall. This will be Washington’s best chance at winning.
Look for Cincy to pressure Daniels, stuff the box, and make the rookie QB beat them with his arm. Washington is only averaged 185.5 passing yards per game. Cincy has the #2 pass defense as they allow just 128.5 passing yards per game.
One other stat that favors the Bengals is that Washington gave up five sacks to the Giants in Week 2. Look for this Cincy front four to get at least four sacks in this game and lead the Bengals to a comfortable home win on MNF.
NFL Parlay Pick 3: Giants (+230) vs. Browns (-275)
The Cleveland Browns (-275) and the New York Giants (+230) have played against each other 52 times and it’s the Browns that hold the advantage with a 28-22 series record. However, it’s the Giants that are 6-2 SU in the last eight meetings between these two teams.
New York is 0-2 on the year and has looked dreadful. This is one of the most anemic offenses in the league, which is evident by their inability to score touchdowns. Not to mention, they have the most overpaid quarterback in the league with Daniel Jones.
The Cleveland Browns bounced back last weekend in Jacksonville and picked up a hard-fought road win. It was a good response after getting trounced at home versus the Cowboys in Week 1.
The Giants are not the Cowboys. In fact, they’re not even close when it comes to comparing the talent on both rosters. Cleveland should have a much easier time at home against the Giants than they have over the last two weeks.
Why We Like The Browns
The Browns gave up 33 points to the Cowboys in Week 1, where Dallas put up big numbers across the board. Cleveland came out flat and got beat in all phases of the game. The defense bounced back in Week 2 as they only allowed 13 points on the road against the Jaguars.
The Giants are 31st in the NFL with just 12 points scored per game. They’re also just 24th with 272 total yards per game. I believe this Browns defense will hold the Giants to that total or fewer. I also believe this Cleveland defense will force Jones into some turnovers while getting a handful of sacks as well.
The Giants defense is giving up 24.5 ppg, 368.5 total yards per game, and allow 163 rushing yards per game. These stats all rank near the bottom of the league. You can expect Cleveland to exploit the Giants on the ground and score at least 24 points at home. The Giants will be lucky to get over 14 points in this matchup.
Cleveland has yet to get and takeaways on the season. You can expect that to change this weekend. Look for a dominant performance by the Browns in Week 3.
NFL Parlay Pick 4: 49ers (-370) vs. Rams (+300)
These two NFC West divisional rivals have played against each other 150 times. The San Francisco 49ers (-370) own the advantage in this rivalry with a 78-69-3 record. However, it’s what the 49ers have done in recent years that have made this rivalry a one-sided affair.
Since 2019, the 49ers are 8-2 SU against the Los Angeles Rams (+300). Making matters even worse for the Rams is the fact that the 49ers are 5-1 SU in their last six trips to Los Angeles. They’ve won the last two games in LA by an average of 12 ppg.
The Rams are 0-2 on the year and are limping into this Week 3 matchup as they will be down both Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp. The 49ers will be without Deebo Samuel and Christian McCaffrey. So, both teams won’t be 100%.
With that said, the 49ers still have more talent on both sides of the ball compared to the Rams. Additionally, Jordan Mason has filled in admirably for McCaffrey. The Rams will struggle mightily without Kupp and Nacua.
Why We Like The 49ers
The 49ers played awful in Minnesota and still had a chance to pull out the win in Week 2. The Rams lost 41-10 in Week 2 to the Cardinals and never had a chance at winning. It was a complete meltdown after their Week 1 loss to the Lions in OT.
Not only are the Rams going to struggle on offense without two of their top playmakers, but this defense has been awful over the first two weeks.
Los Angeles is allowing 33.5 ppg (31), 426 total yards per game (32), and 197 passing yards per game (30). This clearly shows that the Rams have the worst defense after the first two weeks.
Brock Purdy and the 49ers are going to steamroll this defense. The 49ers have put up 24.5 ppg (9), 400 total yards per game (4), and 259 passing yards per game (3). They’re also 11th with 141 rushing yards per game. This offense can get it done through the air and on the ground despite not having McCaffrey.
Deebo Samuel’s absence will be felt but the 49ers till have plenty of talent to throw the ball to like Aiyuk and Kittle. Not to mention, Jennings is a reliable receiver as well. Mason is a wrecking ball in the running game and Purdy is leading the league in passing yards.
The Rams don’t have the defense to stop this San Francsico offense. Additionally, the Rams don’t have the offensive line to protect Stafford and they don’t have the passing game to compete in this game.
NFL Parlay Total Payout
If you decide to take all four legs of our parlay, a $100 wager will net you $205.47 in winnings and a total payout of $305.47.
However, you can mix and match our NFL parlay picks or go down the list of our highest confidence plays. This week, we’re the most confident in the Buffalo Bills at home on Monday Night Football. They have the better team and a wild crowd to create plenty of chaos for the Jaguars.
With that said, we feel confident in the rest of the picks as well. The Browns and Bengals are by far the better teams in their matchups against the Giants and Commanders respectively. Additionally, the 49ers have owned their rivalry against the Rams in recent years. Not to mention, LA is down numerous starters on offense and have one of the worst defenses in the league.
