Pittsburgh Pirates vs Miami Marlins Picks and Predictions September 11th 2024

With bullpen in need of rest, Pirates go for sweep vs. Marlins

The forecast for Wednesday’s Marlins vs. Pirates game calls for clear skies and temperatures in the low 60s. This one is getting started at 12:35 PM ET from PNC Park in Pittsburgh. The money line odds have the Pirates at -178 compared to the Marlins at +150. The over/under line is currently 8.5 runs.

Jonathan Bermudez is starting for the Marlins, and he is facing off against Bailey Falter for the Pirates. Miami is 54-91, and they are 5th in the NL East, while the Pirates have won three straight and are 5th in the NL Central.

Miami vs. Pittsburgh Key Information

• Teams: Marlins at Pirates
• Where: PNC Park Pittsburgh
• Date: Wednesday, September 11th
• Betting Odds PIT -178 | MIA +150 O/U 8.5

The Marlins Can Win If…

Jonathan Bermúdez is getting his first start of the season for the Marlins, and it comes on the road against the Pirates. Bermúdez has made two appearances out of the bullpen so far, and he has yet to factor into a decision. In his most recent outing, he went one inning and gave up one earned run on a home run.

Heading into today’s game, the Marlins are 29th in the league in runs scored, averaging just 3.8 runs per game. They have been even worse on the road, averaging only 3.4 runs per contest. As a team, the Marlins are batting .241, which is 12th in the league, and have the 21st slugging percentage in the league.

Jake Burger has been the Marlins’ top power threat this season, as his 25 home runs are 15th in the league and leads the team. He is also the team’s leader in RBIs, with 61. Over his last four games, Connor Norby has gone 5/17 with three homers, while Otto Lopez is hitting .476 over his last five games.

• The Marlins are 5-5 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Marlins are 3-2 vs. the run line.
• Miami has an over/under record of 5-5 in their last ten games.
• The Marlins have an average of 5.4 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten road games, the Marlins are 5-5
• Looking back across the Marlins last five games as the favorite, they are 3-2
• Miami has gone 1-2 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Marlins have averaged 4.6 runs per game on offense

The Pirates Can Win If…

Bailey Falter gets the start for the Pirates today vs. the Marlins and comes in with a record of 7-7 and an ERA of 4.45. So far this year, he has made 24 starts, and opponents are batting .263 off the left-hander. Falter’s WHIP for the season is 1.31, and he has turned in seven quality starts. In his last outing, he picked up the win, going five innings and giving up three earned runs on seven hits. Before that, he had given up at least four earned runs in three straight starts. Per nine innings, Falter is averaging 6.23 strikeouts and 2.67 walks.

Andrew McCutchen has been swinging a hot bat of late for the Pirates, going 5/14 over his last four games with two homers and four RBIs. McCutchen is 2nd on the team with 20 homers this season but is batting just .241 for the year. Bryan Reynolds has been a bright spot for the Pirates this season, leading the team with a batting average of .277 and 83 RBIs.

As a team, the Pirates are averaging 4.2 runs per game and are 22nd in the league in home runs. Overall, they are batting just .236 and have the 26th worst strikeout rate in the league. Pittsburgh’s team OPS of .674 is also 20th in the MLB.

• The Pirates are 6-4 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Pirates are 2-3 vs. the run line.
• Pittsburgh has an over/under record of 6-4 in their last ten games.
• The Pirates have an average of 5.0 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten home games, the Pirates are 4-6
• Looking back across the Pirates last five games as the favorite, they are 3-2
• Pittsburgh has gone 1-2 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Pirates have averaged 3.1 runs per game on offense

The Lean

For an over/under pick, our lean is on the under, as this is our lowest projected scoring game of the day. As for a straight-up pick, we are leaning toward the Pirates to come out on top. Bailey Falter is our 2nd lowest projected starting pitcher in terms of strikeouts, but we still have him working deeper into the game than Jonathan Bermúdez for the Marlins.

The Pittsburgh Pirates are gearing up to sweep the Miami Marlins in a three-game series, with Wednesday’s game posing a unique challenge due to their overworked bullpen. After using seven relievers in Tuesday’s 6-4 victory, the Pirates will be leaning heavily on starting pitcher Bailey Falter to deliver a lengthy outing, reducing the need for bullpen support.

Pirates Bullpen Strained, Falter to the Rescue?

Following back-to-back games where key relievers Dennis Santana and Aroldis Chapman were utilized, and three relievers pitched multiple innings, the Pirates’ bullpen is in desperate need of rest. Manager Derek Shelton expressed concerns about their availability for Wednesday’s game, stating that the team would need to assess which arms are ready to go. However, the silver lining for Pittsburgh is that they have an off-day on Thursday.

Key Concern:

• The Pirates have depleted their bullpen, using top relievers Santana and Chapman in consecutive games. This adds pressure on Falter to go deep into the game and minimize the bullpen’s workload.

Bailey Falter’s Recent Performance: Inconsistent, But Supported by Offense

Bailey Falter (7-7, 4.45 ERA) will be the starting pitcher for the Pirates. He’s been inconsistent, with a 5.52 ERA in his last seven starts, but has benefited from solid run support. The Pirates have averaged nearly six runs per game in his recent outings, helping him maintain a 3-0 record in that span.

Falter’s most recent start came against the Washington Nationals, where he allowed three runs on seven hits over five innings in a 9-4 win. After a rough first inning, Falter settled in, throwing 94 pitches through five innings. His ability to recover after shaky starts could be critical in this game.

Key Facts:

• Falter has only gone beyond five innings twice in his last seven starts, which has stretched the bullpen thin.
• The Pirates have provided significant run support in his starts, often masking his early-game struggles.

Falter’s History Against the Marlins: A Rocky Start

Falter’s first appearance of the season came against the Marlins, and it wasn’t smooth. He gave up five runs in the first inning and six total over four innings, but the Pirates managed to escape with a 9-7 win in extra innings. Falter has a career 2-0 record against the Marlins but with a 5.73 ERA over seven appearances, indicating he’s struggled to keep them off the scoreboard.

Key Concern:

• Falter has a history of allowing early runs against Miami, and given the bullpen’s state, the Pirates can’t afford to fall behind early.

Marlins Counter with Unproven Bermudez

Miami will send Jonathan Bermudez to the mound, a pitcher with limited Major League experience. Bermudez (0-0, 5.79 ERA) has made just two relief appearances this season, and Wednesday’s game will mark his first start. His lack of experience at the Major League level adds unpredictability to the Marlins’ pitching strategy.

Bermudez gave up two runs in 3 2/3 innings in a win over the Colorado Rockies on August 27, and allowed one run in one inning of relief in his most recent outing on Sunday. His inexperience as a starter could make him vulnerable against a Pirates lineup that’s been productive in recent games.

Key Facts:

• Bermudez has limited experience in the majors and has yet to prove himself as a reliable starter.
• The Pirates’ offense has been solid, particularly in games when Falter starts, giving them an edge if they can capitalize early against Bermudez.

Pirates’ Offensive Momentum and Marlins’ Key Contributors

The Pirates’ offense has been crucial in backing up Falter, often compensating for his shaky starts. In Tuesday’s game, they relied on a balanced attack to overcome the Marlins, with key contributions from players like Bryan Reynolds and Jack Suwinski. If the Pirates can continue to score early, it will relieve pressure on Falter and the bullpen.

On the Marlins’ side, catcher Jhonny Pereda had a strong game on Tuesday with three hits, and Kyle Stowers, who had been in a September slump, broke out with two doubles. Stowers’ resurgence could spell trouble for Falter if he continues to struggle in the first inning.

Key Performances:

• Jhonny Pereda and Kyle Stowers showed signs of life for the Marlins in Tuesday’s game, providing potential threats for Falter in the early innings.
• The Pirates’ offense has been consistent in supporting Falter, and they’ll need to maintain that momentum to protect their taxed bullpen.

Potential Impact of Michael Petersen for Miami

Newly acquired reliever Michael Petersen could also play a role for Miami in Wednesday’s game. The Marlins claimed Petersen off waivers from the Los Angeles Dodgers, where he went 3-0 with a 6.43 ERA in 11 appearances. Despite his struggles at the MLB level, Petersen has been impressive in Triple-A, boasting a 1.64 ERA and 10 saves.

If Bermudez struggles early, Petersen may be called upon to stabilize the game for the Marlins, adding another layer of complexity to the Pirates’ offensive approach.

Key Fact:

• Michael Petersen has been dominant in the minors and could be a wildcard for the Marlins if their bullpen is called into action early.

What’s at Stake for Both Teams?

For the Pirates (69-76), winning the series finale would not only secure a sweep but also help maintain momentum as they finish the season. They are well out of playoff contention but playing for pride and the development of younger players.

For the Marlins (54-91), they are simply looking to avoid a sweep and finish the season on a more positive note, especially with a young roster. Jonathan Bermudez will be auditioning for a spot in the Marlins’ future rotation, while players like Jhonny Pereda and Kyle Stowers aim to keep their bats hot.

Key Stakes:

• The Pirates want to end the series on a high note, while the Marlins are battling to avoid a sweep and build confidence in their young core.

Conclusion: Pirates Need Falter to Step Up for the Sweep

With the Pirates’ bullpen running on fumes, Bailey Falter’s ability to go deep into the game is critical. If Falter can avoid early trouble and the Pirates’ offense continues to deliver, Pittsburgh stands a good chance of securing the sweep. On the other hand, the Marlins, with an inexperienced starter in Bermudez and hot hitters like Pereda and Stowers, will aim to capitalize on Falter’s inconsistencies.

As both teams face uncertainties on the mound, the game could come down to which starter settles in first, and whose offense can take advantage of the opponent’s pitching weakness.

The best MLB Handicappers