Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins Picks and Predictions September 12th 2024

Thursday’s matchup between the Marlins and Nationals has a first pitch set for 6:45 PM ET from Nationals Park in Washington, DC. The forecast for the game calls for temperatures in the low 80s and partly cloudy skies. Miami is currently on a three-game losing streak and has an overall record of 54-92, which places them 5th in the NL East. The Nationals are 4th in the NL East with a record of 65-80.

Washington is the heavy favorite on the money line, with odds of -182 compared to the Marlins at +152. The over/under line is currently at 9 runs, and BSFL will be televising this one. Darren McCaughan is starting for the Marlins, while the Nationals are going with Mitchell Parker.

Miami vs. Washington Key Information

• Teams: Marlins at Nationals
• Where: Nationals Park Washington
• Date: Thursday, September 12th
• Betting Odds WSH -182 | MIA +152 O/U 9

The Marlins Can Win If…

Miami is sending right-hander Darren McCaughan to the mound today as he faces the Nationals on the road. McCaughan has made two starts and seven appearances this season and has a record of 0-0 with a 7.40 ERA. Opposing batters are hitting .333 this season off McCaughan, and his WHIP is 1.85. In his most recent outing, McCaughan went 4 2/3 innings, giving up two earned runs, and six hits. He finished with a no-decision in that outing. McCaughan has finished with a no-decision in each of his last four appearances.

For the season, the Marlins are averaging just 3.8 runs per game, which is 29th in the league. They have been even worse on the road, averaging only 3.4 runs per contest. As a team, the Marlins are batting .241, which is 13th in the league, but they are 22nd in home runs and have the worst walk rate in the league.

Jake Burger is the Marlins’ top power threat, as he is 15th in the league with 25 homers and is batting .239. Burger also leads the team with 61 RBIs. Jesús Sánchez is 2nd on the team with 17 homers and is batting .246. Otto Lopez has been hot of late, going 8/20 in his last five games, and is currently on a six-game hitting streak.

• The Marlins are 4-6 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Marlins are 3-2 vs. the run line.
• Miami has an over/under record of 5-5 in their last ten games.
• The Marlins have an average of 5.2 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten road games, the Marlins are 4-6
• Looking back across the Marlins last five games as the favorite, they are 3-2
• Miami has gone 0-3 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Marlins have averaged 4.4 runs per game on offense

The Nationals Can Win If…

Washington is sending left-hander Mitchell Parker to the mound today vs. the Marlins. He has made 26 starts this season and has a record of 7-9 with an ERA of 4.43. Parker’s WHIP for the season is 1.31, and he has pitched much better at home, coming in with a 3.76 ERA compared to 11.06 on the road. In his last outing, Parker finished with a no-decision, giving up four earned runs in 3 1/3 innings of work. Before that, he had lost three straight starts. The left-hander has allowed at least one homer in three straight outings.

Washington’s offense has been below average this season, averaging 4.2 runs per game (21st in the MLB). They are also near the bottom of the league in home runs and isolated power. As a team, the Nationals are batting .245, which is 11th in the league, and they have done a good job of putting the ball in play, as they have the 5th fewest strikeouts in the league.

CJ Abrams comes into the game as the Nationals’ leader in home runs, but he is hitting just .239 for the season and has gone just 5/31 in his last eight games. Luis Garcia Jr. is batting .284 for the season and is 2nd on the team with 63 RBIs. Over his last nine games, Andres Chaparro has hit two homers but is just 8/35.

• The Nationals are 4-6 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Nationals are 3-2 vs. the run line.
• Washington has an over/under record of 5-5 in their last ten games.
• The Nationals have an average of 4.2 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten home games, the Nationals are 5-5
• Looking back across the Nationals last five games as the favorite, they are 3-2
• Washington has gone 1-2 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Nationals have averaged 4.4 runs per game on offense

The Washington Nationals are set to host the Miami Marlins in a four-game series beginning Thursday night at Nationals Park. After winning eight of their nine meetings this season, the Nationals will look to continue their strong run against a Marlins team struggling to find consistency. Washington is coming off a confidence-boosting win against the Braves, while Miami aims to turn things around after a tough series against the Pirates.

Washington’s Dominance Over Miami This Season

Turning the Tables on Miami

The Nationals (65-80) have turned the tables on the Marlins (54-92) this season. Last year, Washington was dominated by Miami, dropping 11 of 13 matchups. However, this season, it’s been a completely different story, with Washington taking eight of the nine games played so far. The Marlins managed to snap the Nationals’ win streak on Sept. 4, pulling off a 4-3 win in extra innings. Still, Washington has had the upper hand throughout the season and will be eager to regain that momentum.

Recent Success Against the Braves

Washington enters this series on a positive note, having split a two-game series against the NL East-leading Atlanta Braves. The Nationals secured a 5-1 win on Wednesday, showing resilience against one of the best teams in baseball. Rookie Dylan Crews contributed two hits and an RBI in the victory, expressing optimism about the team’s form.

With young stars like Crews playing a key role, Washington is hoping to finish the season strong and build on their recent success.

Marlins Looking to Rebound

Struggles Against Pittsburgh

On the other side, the Marlins are coming off a rough three-game sweep at the hands of the Pittsburgh Pirates. Miami’s offense faltered in the final game of that series, managing just one run in a 3-1 loss on Wednesday. Despite the tough stretch, Marlins manager Skip Schumaker remains hopeful, praising his team’s effort even though the results haven’t gone their way.

“Those guys fought,” Schumaker said. “There’s no doubt about it, they fought all three games. We just couldn’t come up with the big hit late.”

With a fresh series against a familiar opponent, Miami will be looking to snap their losing streak and turn their fortunes around.

Pitching Matchup: Mitchell Parker vs. Darren McCaughan

Nationals Turn to Parker

Mitchell Parker (7-9, 4.43 ERA) will get the start for Washington. The left-hander has been a solid presence in the Nationals’ rotation, though he’s searching for his first win since Aug. 21. In his last outing, Parker allowed four runs over 3 1/3 innings against the Pirates but didn’t factor into the decision. This season, Parker has faced the Marlins twice, putting together solid performances. He earned a no-decision in April but picked up a win in June with a strong six-inning, one-run outing.

With just two more wins, Parker can set a Nationals rookie record for most wins in a season since the franchise moved to Washington.

McCaughan’s Struggles on the Road

Miami will counter with Darren McCaughan (0-0, 7.40 ERA), who will be making his fifth appearance of the season. McCaughan has had a tough time away from home, posting a 10.66 ERA in three road games. His last start came against the Philadelphia Phillies, where he allowed three runs (two earned) in 4 2/3 innings. This will be McCaughan’s first career start against the Nationals, and he’ll be looking to improve on his previous road struggles.

Washington’s Rising Stars Continue to Shine

Dylan Crews and James Wood Leading the Charge

Washington’s success this season has been fueled by a talented young core, and rookies Dylan Crews and James Wood have been at the forefront. Crews, the No. 1 overall prospect according to MLB Pipeline, has reached base in 11 of his first 14 games since joining the major league club. His consistent play has been a major boost for the Nationals’ offense.

James Wood has been equally impressive, reaching base in 12 consecutive games and 18 of his last 19. The young outfielder has shown poise beyond his years, giving Nationals fans a lot to be excited about moving forward.

The continued development of Crews and Wood is crucial for Washington as they look to finish the season on a high note and carry momentum into next year.

Miami’s Bright Spots and Injury Woes

Otto Lopez’s Hot Streak

While the Marlins have struggled overall, rookie second baseman Otto Lopez has been a bright spot. Lopez is riding a six-game hitting streak, batting .458 over that stretch with three doubles, a home run, and four RBIs. His ability to provide a spark at the top of the lineup has been a rare positive for Miami during this tough stretch of the season.

Injury Concerns for the Marlins

Miami’s bullpen took a hit on Wednesday when reliever John McMillon exited the game against the Pirates with right elbow tightness after facing just one batter. His status is still uncertain, which could put additional strain on an already struggling Marlins pitching staff. The team will need to rally around its remaining arms to avoid further breakdowns during this series.

What’s at Stake for Both Teams

Nationals’ Building Momentum

Though both teams are well out of playoff contention, there’s still plenty to play for. Washington is in full rebuild mode, and their strong performances against Miami this season are a testament to the progress they’ve made with their young talent. With the likes of Crews, Wood, and other young stars leading the way, the Nationals are looking to finish the season strong and lay the groundwork for 2024.

Marlins Searching for a Strong Finish

For Miami, the goal is to end the season on a positive note despite their struggles. A win in this series would be a step in the right direction, and the Marlins will be eager to avoid another lopsided season series against Washington. With their pitching staff in flux and the offense inconsistent, finding a way to string together wins will be critical as they head into the final weeks of the season.

The Lean

For an over/under pick, our lean is on the under, as this is our lowest projected scoring game of the day. As for a play on the money line, we would be leaning toward the Nationals to come out on top. Looking at the starters for this matchup, we have Mitchell Parker as today’s 11th best strikeout option compared to Darren McCaughan, who is projected to finish with 0.0 strikeouts.