Florida State Seminoles vs Memphis Tigers Picks and Predictions September 14th 2024

ESPN will be covering the week three non-conference matchup between the Memphis Tigers and the Florida State Seminoles, scheduled for 12:00 ET on Saturday, September 14th. The game will be played at Doak Campbell Stadium in Tallahassee. Memphis is 2-0 to start the season, while Florida State is 0-2. The Seminoles are -6.5 point favorites at home, with the over/under line set at 52 points.

Memphis vs. Florida State Key Information

• Teams: Tigers at Seminoles
• Where: Doak Campbell Stadium Tallahassee
• Date: Saturday, September 14th
• Betting Odds FLST -248 | MPHS +200 O/U 52

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The Tigers Can Win If…

Memphis is off to a strong start this season, moving to 2-0 after a 38-17 win over Troy. The Tigers, who were -18.5 point favorites, not only won but also covered the spread. This game’s over/under was set at 56 points, but the combined score fell just short at 55 points.

Memphis took control early, leading 7-0 after the first quarter and extending their lead to 21-7 by halftime. The Tigers outscored Troy 10-3 in the third quarter and finished the game with a 7-7 tie in the fourth quarter.

Memphis’ offense was powered by their ground game in their 38-17 win over Troy, as they rushed for 211 yards and four touchdowns. The Tigers picked up 25 first downs and finished with 372 total yards. Seth Henigan completed 66.7% of his passes for 161 yards and one touchdown, ending the game with a passer rating of 91.11.

Mario Anderson Jr. was instrumental in the rushing attack, gaining 125 yards on 17 carries and scoring two touchdowns. Demeer Blankumsee led the receiving corps with four catches for 50 yards.

Memphis’ defense will be looking to improve after allowing 251 yards and 17 first downs to Troy in their last game. The Tigers gave up 150 passing yards on 16 completions, but they were more effective against the run, holding Troy to 101 rushing yards. Despite their overall performance, Memphis did not allow a passing touchdown, but they did give up two scores on the ground.

• The Memphis Tigers have posted a 3-0 record in their previous three games. The team has also been excellent vs the spread, going 3-0. Their over-under record in these games was 1-2.
• Over their last ten regular season games, the Memphis Tigers have gone 8-2 straight up. In these contests, the team went just 6-4 against the spread, while going 7-3 on the over-under.

The Seminoles Can Win If…

Florida State is looking to bounce back after a disappointing start to the season, currently sitting at 0-2. In their most recent game, the Seminoles were upset by Boston College, who came into the game as +16.5 point underdogs. Florida State not only lost, but they also failed to cover the spread, losing 28-13. The over/under line for the game was 51.5 points, but the total score ended at 41 points, resulting in the under hitting.

After a scoreless first quarter, Boston College took control of the game, and the Seminoles found themselves trailing 14-6 at halftime. Florida State managed to score in the third quarter, but Boston College outscored them 14-7 in the quarter, and the Seminoles were unable to score in the fourth quarter.

Florida State’s offense struggled to establish the run in their last game, finishing with just 21 rushing yards on 16 attempts. Despite this, the Seminoles managed to pick up 13 first downs and 293 total yards. Most of their offensive production came through the air, with DJ Uiagalelei throwing for 272 yards on 21 completions. Uiagalelei’s pass attempts were 42, and he threw one touchdown and one interception, ending the game with a passer rating of 68.75.

Kentron Poitier was the top receiver for the Seminoles, recording 79 yards on three receptions. The Florida State offense will need to find a way to get their ground game going to take some pressure off Uiagalelei and the passing attack.

Florida State’s defense will be looking for a major improvement after giving up 563 total yards in their last game. Boston College’s ground game was particularly effective, rushing for 306 yards and three touchdowns. The Seminoles also allowed 257 passing yards and four touchdowns through the air, with Boston College completing 11 of 13 pass attempts.

• Florida State has put together a record of 1-2 in their last three games (regular season). This includes going 1-2 vs. the spread along with an over-under mark of 1-2.
• Through their last ten regular season contests, Florida State has a record of 8-2. In these matchups, they ended with an ATS record of 5-5 and an over-under mark of 6-4.

The Lean

Memphis comes into this game as the -6.5 point spread favorite over Florida State, and we have them winning by a score of 27-22. Given the spread, we like Memphis to cover as the road favorite.

For the over/under, with the line set at 52 points, our projection of 49 points makes the under the best play for this matchup.

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Florida State Desperate to Avoid 0-3 Start as Memphis Visits Tallahassee

Florida State (0-2) is on the brink of disaster as they prepare to host Memphis (2-0) this Saturday in Tallahassee, Florida. The Seminoles are desperate to avoid starting the season 0-3, while the Tigers look to capitalize on Florida State’s struggles and make a statement in this key non-conference showdown.

Familiar Faces on Opposing Sidelines

This game carries extra weight for Florida State head coach Mike Norvell, who spent four seasons as the head coach at Memphis (2016-2019). During his time there, Norvell led the Tigers to unprecedented success, and now, facing his former program adds an emotional dimension to this matchup.

On the other side, Memphis head coach Ryan Silverfield was one of Norvell’s key assistants during his tenure at Memphis. While their ties run deep, Silverfield insists that Saturday’s game isn’t about the coaches:

“Obviously, there’s a great relationship with Mike Norvell and everything he meant to this university, but this game will not be a Silverfield vs. Norvell,” Silverfield said.

Florida State’s Struggles

Offensive Issues

After entering the season with high expectations, Florida State’s 0-2 start has been jarring. Following back-to-back losses to Georgia Tech and Boston College, the Seminoles have fallen out of the rankings and are struggling to find their rhythm on both sides of the ball.

The Seminoles rank last in the ACC in scoring offense, total offense, and rushing offense. Despite a talented roster, they’ve failed to execute offensively, leaving head coach Norvell searching for answers.

One of the key issues has been the inconsistent play of quarterback DJ Uiagalelei, a transfer from Oregon State. Uiagalelei currently ranks 14th in the ACC in passer rating (116.5) and has struggled to find a rhythm with his new team.

Despite the slow start, Norvell has confidence in Uiagalelei’s leadership:

“It’s definitely not all on him. I’ve really liked his mindset and his approach. He understands how to respond to good and to some of the challenges that showed up,” Norvell said.

Defensive Concerns

Florida State’s defense has also been inconsistent, particularly in the secondary, where they’ve struggled to contain opposing quarterbacks. As they face a potent Memphis offense, the Seminoles will need to shore up their defensive play to avoid another disappointment.

Memphis Eyes Major Upset

Strong Start for the Tigers

Memphis, meanwhile, has started the season in strong fashion, defeating North Alabama and Troy with relative ease. The Tigers have averaged 39 points per game and come into this game full of confidence. Memphis has their sights set on a potential College Football Playoff berth as a Group of Five team, and a win over a Power Five program like Florida State could be a defining moment.

Quarterback Seth Henigan has been highly efficient, completing 70% of his passes for 469 yards, three touchdowns, and no interceptions through two games. Henigan’s decision-making and accuracy will be critical as Memphis aims to expose Florida State’s defensive weaknesses.

Running back Mario Anderson has also been a standout, rushing for 171 yards and four touchdowns, averaging 6.3 yards per carry. His ability to keep the chains moving will be key against Florida State’s defense.

After making your picks, it's key to understand how odds impact your winnings. Check out our NCAAF Odds page for more details.

Key Players to Watch

DJ Uiagalelei (Florida State QB)

Uiagalelei is under pressure to right the ship for the Seminoles after a rocky start to the season. His performance against Memphis could determine Florida State’s fate in this pivotal matchup.

Seth Henigan (Memphis QB)

Henigan has been sharp so far, and his efficient passing could be the difference-maker against a Florida State defense that has struggled in coverage.

Mario Anderson (Memphis RB)

Anderson has been a crucial part of Memphis’ offense, and his ability to maintain balance in the Tigers’ attack will be vital. If Anderson can establish the run early, it could open up the passing game for Henigan.

Series History

Florida State holds a 10-7-1 edge in the all-time series, and the Seminoles have won the last four meetings. However, the two teams haven’t faced each other since 1990, making this year’s matchup one with plenty of uncertainty and intrigue.

What’s at Stake

Florida State’s Desperation

For Florida State, this game is critical. An 0-3 start would be disastrous for a team that entered the season as the reigning ACC champions. The pressure is mounting for Mike Norvell to find answers and get his team back on track.

Memphis’ Big Opportunity

For Memphis, this game represents a major opportunity to earn a signature win. The Tigers are eyeing a New Year’s Six bowl game or even a longshot bid for the College Football Playoff, and a win against Florida State would significantly bolster their resume.