Mississippi State Bulldogs vs Toledo Rockets Picks and Predictions September 14th 2024

Mississippi State is the -11.5 point favorite as they prepare to host the Toledo Rockets in a week three non-conference matchup. Kick-off is scheduled for 7:30 ET from Davis Wade Stadium in Starkville on Saturday, September 14th. ESNU will be handling the TV coverage. The over/under line is currently set at 59.5 points. Toledo comes in with a 2-0 record, while Mississippi State is 1-1 on the season.

Toledo vs. Mississippi State Key Information

• Teams: Rockets at Bulldogs
• Where: Davis Wade Stadium Starkville
• Date: Saturday, September 14th
• Betting Odds MSPST -448 | TOLEDO +340 O/U 59.5

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The Rockets Can Win If…

Toledo improved to 2-0 for the season after defeating UMass in a non-conference matchup. The Rockets were -17.5 point favorites but won by a score of 38-23, resulting in a push for bettors. The game’s total score of 61 points surpassed the over/under line of 51.5 points.

After taking a 7-0 lead in the first quarter, Toledo allowed UMass to close the gap to 17-13 by halftime. The Rockets then outscored UMass 7-3 in the third quarter and 14-7 in the fourth to secure the win.

Quarterback Tucker Gleason led Toledo’s offense to a 38-23 win over UMass, throwing for 175 yards and three touchdowns. Junior Vandeross III was his top target, catching three passes for 115 yards and one touchdown.

The Rockets’ offense totaled 267 yards, with 92 yards coming on the ground. Gleason himself added 34 yards on three rushing attempts. Toledo’s offense moved the chains 12 times and found the end zone three times through the air.

After giving up 384 total yards in their most recent game, Toledo’s defense will be looking to improve. UMass found success through the air, throwing for 259 yards and a touchdown on 26 completions. Toledo’s defense did manage to force one interception. On the ground, the Rockets allowed 125 yards and one rushing touchdown.

• Over their last three games, the Toledo Rockets have gone 2-1 straight up. In addition, their ATS record over this stretch is 2-1 while posting a 2-1 over-under mark.
• Through their last ten regular season contests, Toledo has a record of 8-2. In these contests, the team went just 6-4 against the spread, while going 4-6 on the over-under.

The Bulldogs Can Win If…

Mississippi State is looking to bounce back after a 30-23 road loss to Arizona State, bringing their season record to 1-1. The Bulldogs were +6 point underdogs and failed to cover the spread, losing by seven points. The combined score of 53 points was lower than the over/under line of 58 points.

Mississippi State fell behind early, trailing 10-0 after the first quarter and 27-3 at halftime. They managed to outscore Arizona State 7-3 in the third quarter and added 13 points in the fourth, but it wasn’t enough to complete the comeback.

In Mississippi State’s 30-23 loss to Arizona State, the Bulldogs’ offense put up 298 yards, with 268 of those coming through the air. Blake Shapen completed 64.3% of his passes for 268 yards, throwing two touchdowns and finishing with a passer rating of 119.35. Kevin Coleman Jr. led the receiving corps with 103 yards on four receptions, and one of those catches went for a touchdown.

The Bulldogs’ offense moved the chains 18 times but struggled to establish a ground game, finishing with just 30 rushing yards on 26 attempts. Keyvone Lee led the team in rushing with 35 yards on nine carries and added a rushing touchdown.

Mississippi State’s defense will be looking to bounce back after giving up 428 yards in their last game. The Bulldogs had particular trouble stopping the run, allowing 359 rushing yards and two touchdowns. Arizona State’s ground game was dominant, with 54 carries and an average of 6.7 yards per rush. However, Mississippi State’s pass defense was solid, holding the Sun Devils to just 69 yards on 10 completions.

• The Mississippi State Bulldogs have posted a 2-1 record in their previous three games. The team has also been excellent vs the spread, going 2-0-1. Their over-under record in these games was 2-1.
• Over their last ten regular season games, the Mississippi State Bulldogs have gone 6-4 straight up. Their record against the spread in this stretch is 4-5-1 to go along with an over-under mark of 6-4.

The Lean

Our projections for this week three matchup between Mississippi State and Toledo have the Bulldogs coming out on top, with a final score of 36-28. Even though Mississippi State is the -11.5 point favorite, we like Toledo to cover the spread.

With the over/under line set at 59.5 points, our model is projecting a combined 64 points, making the over the best bet for this game.

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Mississippi State, Toledo Seek Offensive Improvements in Starkville Showdown

Mississippi State (1-1) and Toledo (2-0) will meet in Starkville on Saturday, both teams seeking answers to their offensive struggles in a crucial nonconference matchup. The Bulldogs are looking to bounce back from a tough loss to Arizona State, while the Rockets aim to build on a victory over Massachusetts, despite battling their own offensive inefficiencies.

Mississippi State’s Run Game Woes

Struggles on Both Sides of the Ball

The biggest concern for Mississippi State revolves around their run game—both offensively and defensively. In their recent 30-23 loss to Arizona State, the Bulldogs allowed a staggering 346 rushing yards, with Arizona State’s Cam Skattebo alone accounting for 262 yards, the most Mississippi State has allowed in a single game since 2016. On the offensive side, Mississippi State managed a meager 24 rushing yards on 27 carries, adding to the team’s frustrations.

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Head coach Jeff Lebby acknowledged that the problem lies with more than just the running backs.

“You look at the running backs, the offensive line, the decision making from a quarterback standpoint… Just way too many inconsistencies,” Lebby said. “We had the right people, but fundamentally we did not play clean.”

Tackling Issues Plague Defense

On defense, poor tackling has been a glaring issue for the Bulldogs. Lebby highlighted the Bulldogs’ struggles in this area, pointing to missed opportunities that led to significant yardage for Arizona State.

“It’s one story, and it’s tackling,” Lebby explained. “Twenty-five missed tackles, over 250 yards after contact… There were plenty of times we were in position, and we got to get the guy on the ground.”

For Mississippi State, improving their run defense and tackling fundamentals will be crucial if they hope to stop Toledo and prepare for their SEC opener against Florida on September 21.

Toledo’s Offensive Struggles

Inconsistent Offense Despite Wins

Although Toledo enters the game with a 2-0 record, their offensive performance has been far from smooth. In their 38-23 win over Massachusetts, the Rockets generated just 102 total yards until late in the third quarter, eventually finishing with 258 yards. Quarterback Tucker Gleason struggled, completing only 8 of 23 passes, and Toledo’s rushing attack was largely ineffective, managing just 83 yards on 22 carries.

Toledo head coach Jason Candle acknowledged that his team will face a much tougher test in Starkville.

“We’ve got a massive opponent in Mississippi State this weekend, going to the SEC,” Candle said. “I know it will be a great crowd, great environment, and I know these kids are looking forward to the challenges that lie ahead.”

For Toledo, offensive efficiency and avoiding sluggish starts will be critical if they hope to pull off the upset against the Bulldogs.

Key Matchup: Bulldogs vs. Rockets

Mississippi State’s Redemption Quest

Mississippi State’s primary focus will be addressing the run game, both in terms of production and run defense. The Bulldogs need to tighten up their defense, especially after giving up over 250 yards after contact last week. Offensively, Lebby knows his team must find consistency in the run game to take pressure off their passing attack.

With their SEC opener against Florida looming, Mississippi State can’t afford to overlook Toledo. Coach Lebby emphasized the importance of staying focused on the Rockets.

“Their program is incredibly established, and they’ve had a ton of success,” Lebby said. “For them to be able to come down here Saturday night, it will be no big deal for their program.”

Toledo’s Opportunity for an Upset

Toledo, despite their offensive struggles, has the opportunity to turn things around in Starkville. However, the Rockets will need a much sharper performance from quarterback Tucker Gleason and the offensive line, particularly against a Mississippi State defense eager to prove itself after last week’s collapse.

If Toledo can limit turnovers and find a way to keep Mississippi State’s defense on their heels, they may be able to keep pace with the Bulldogs and create opportunities for an upset.