Philadelphia Phillies vs Ny Mets Mets Picks and Predictions September 14th 2024

At 4:05 PM ET, the Mets and Phillies face off in an NL East matchup. This one is being played at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia and the Mets are favored on the money line, with their payout sitting at -111 compared to the Phillies at -108. The over/under line is at 9 runs.

Luis Severino will start for the Mets, while the Phillies are sending Kolby Allard to the mound. New York is 81-66 this season, and the Phillies are leading the NL East with a record of 88-59.

New York vs. Philadelphia Key Information

• Teams: Mets at Phillies
• Where: Citizens Bank Park Philadelphia
• Date: Saturday, September 14th
• Betting Odds NYM -111 | PHI -108 O/U 9

The Mets Can Win If…

Luis Severino gets the start for the Mets today as he faces the Phillies on the road. So far this season, he has made 28 starts and has a record of 10-6 with an ERA of 3.74. Opponents have a batting average of .232 off Severino this year. In his 28 appearances, Severino has turned in 12 quality starts and is averaging 7.81 strikeouts per nine innings. The right-hander’s most recent outing came on September 8th, where he finished with a no-decision, going 6 2/3 innings and giving up one earned run on five hits.

Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso have been two of the Mets’ top power threats this season, as Alonso’s 32 homers is 10th in the league and Lindor has gone deep 31 times. Lindor is also 15th in the MLB with 86 RBIs. Lindor comes into the game on a three-game hitting streak, while Jose Iglesias has gone 6/17 in his last five games and is currently on a seven-game hitting streak.

As a team, the Mets are 6th in the league in scoring at 4.8 runs per game. They have been even better on the road this season, averaging 5 runs per contest. Overall, they are the league’s 5th ranked home run hitting team and have the 7th best isolated power mark in the MLB.

• The Mets are 8-2 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Mets are 2-3 vs. the run line.
• New York has an over/under record of 5-4-1 in their last ten games.
• The Mets have an average of 4.6 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten road games, the Mets are 8-2
• Looking back across the Mets last five games as the favorite, they are 3-2
• New York has gone 3-0 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Mets have averaged 5.0 runs per game on offense

The Phillies Can Win If…

Kolby Allard will be making his 3rd start of the season, and his 2nd at home. He has picked up wins in his first two outings, with his most recent start coming on the road against the Royals. In that game, he went 5 innings, allowing 2 earned runs and striking out 5.

As a team, the Phillies are averaging 4.9 runs per game, which is 4th in the league. They have been even better at home, averaging 5 runs per contest. Overall, they are 4th in team batting average (.258) and have the 8th most home runs in the league. Philadelphia’s offense has been led by Kyle Schwarber, who is 7th in the league with 35 homers and is also 10th in the MLB with 95 RBIs. Bryce Harper is 2nd on the team with 26 homers and is batting .289 for the season.

Harper has been hot of late, going 8/19 in his last five games, and Schwarber has also been swinging a hot bat, going 4/11 in his last four games. Schwarber also comes into the game on a 10-game hitting streak. Alec Bohm is also a player to watch, as he is hitting .290 for the season and has 13 homers.

• The Phillies are 7-3 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Phillies are 1-4 vs. the run line.
• Philadelphia has an over/under record of 6-4 in their last ten games.
• The Phillies have an average of 3.6 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten home games, the Phillies are 6-4
• Looking back across the Phillies last five games as the favorite, they are 3-2
• Philadelphia has gone 1-2 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Phillies have averaged 6.9 runs per game on offense

The Lean

For a money-line pick in this Mets vs. Phillies matchup, we are leaning toward the Mets to come out on top. As for how we would play the over/under line, we would go with the over, as this is projected to be the 4th lowest-scoring game of the day, and this one has our lowest total hits projection. Looking at today’s starters, we have Luis Severino as the better strikeout option over Kolby Allard.

Kolby Allard Set to Rejoin Phillies for Crucial Showdown Against Surging Mets: A Late-Season Matchup with Big Playoff Stakes

As the New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies battle it out in a heated September series, the pressure is at an all-time high for both teams. With the Mets coming off an explosive 11-3 victory in the series opener, they’re inching closer to the Phillies’ lead in the National League East. Meanwhile, the Phillies, sitting in first place, are determined to hold on to their division lead and secure a strong position as they head into the postseason. Every game matters, and with only 15 games left, this is the definition of must-win baseball.

On Saturday, the spotlight will be on an exciting pitching duel, with the Phillies calling on left-hander Kolby Allard from Triple-A to take on the Mets’ in-form right-hander, Luis Severino. It’s a game with serious playoff implications, and both teams know what’s at stake.

You can always refer to the current MLB Odds to stay up to date with the latest betting lines.

Mets Are Riding a Serious Wave of Momentum

The Mets (81-66) are catching fire at just the right time. They’ve won 12 of their last 14 games, and Friday’s dominant win put the rest of the division on notice. That victory closed the gap between them and the Phillies (88-59) to just seven games. With more head-to-head matchups looming, this series could define the season for both squads.

Manager Carlos Mendoza’s team has found its rhythm, and the momentum is undeniable. José Quintana set the tone in Game 1, throwing seven scoreless innings, while the Mets’ bats came alive, launching four home runs. Francisco Alvarez, Brandon Nimmo, Harrison Bader, and Pete Alonso all went deep, with Alvarez and Nimmo each crushing three-run shots that left no doubt about who owned the night.

“We’re playing great baseball right now,” said Mendoza after the game. “We always knew we had the talent, and now everything’s starting to click.”

The Mets are riding high, but there’s one concern: star shortstop Francisco Lindor left Friday’s game with a sore back. While that might sound alarming, Mendoza isn’t sweating it just yet. “I’m not too worried,” Mendoza said with a grin. “Knowing Francisco, he’ll probably tell me he’s ready for Saturday.”

Phillies Looking to Rebound After a Rough Game 1

For the Phillies, Friday night was one to forget. They struggled to generate offense, managing only a three-run homer from Brandon Marsh in the ninth inning, their first time advancing a runner to third base all game. It was a frustrating night for a team that’s been so strong all season, but they know one bad game won’t define them.

To bounce back, the Phillies will be relying on Kolby Allard, who’s being recalled from Triple-A Lehigh Valley for this crucial start. Allard has shown potential in his limited outings this season. His most recent performance, a five-inning, two-run showing against Kansas City, earned him high praise from manager Rob Thomson.

“Kolby’s got the right mindset for these moments,” said Thomson. “He worked his way out of a tough spot early in his last start, and that tells me he’s ready for the challenge. The changeup was working well for him, and that’s going to be key against the Mets.”

Allard will be facing the Mets for the first time, and his ability to keep their red-hot lineup in check could be the turning point the Phillies need in this series.

Severino’s Dominant Run Powers the Mets

On the other side, the Mets will be sending their ace of the moment, Luis Severino, to the mound. Severino has been lights out lately, posting a 1.95 ERA over his last five starts. In September alone, he’s allowed just two runs in 13 2/3 innings, proving himself as one of the most reliable arms in the Mets’ rotation down the stretch.

“We’re not too focused on the standings,” Severino said. “We just want to keep winning series and let everything else take care of itself.”

Severino has faced the Phillies just once in his career, all the way back in 2018 when he was still with the Yankees. In that outing, he threw seven scoreless innings, and the Mets are counting on him to bring that same level of dominance on Saturday. His experience in big games will be crucial as the Mets look to claw their way closer to the Phillies in the standings.

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Playoff Vibes Are in Full Swing

It’s not officially the postseason yet, but the atmosphere feels like playoff baseball already. The Mets are surging at just the right time, putting pressure on the Phillies, who have led the division for most of the year. Both teams have their eyes set on October, with the Mets currently holding the third and final NL Wild Card spot. For them, this series is about more than just keeping pace—it’s about gaining ground and building momentum for a deeper playoff run.

For the Phillies, the mission is clear: fend off the Mets, keep their division lead intact, and secure a strong position heading into the postseason. They’ve controlled the season series so far, holding a 4-3 advantage, but these games are taking on a different intensity now that October is just around the corner.

As Brandon Nimmo, one of the Mets’ leaders, put it: “This feels like playoff baseball. Every at-bat, every pitch—it’s all magnified right now. These are the games you live for.”

Key Matchups to Watch on Saturday

Mets’ Momentum: With 12 wins in their last 14 games, the Mets are riding a massive wave of momentum. They’ve closed the gap in the NL East and are pushing hard for a playoff spot.

Pitching Showdown: Kolby Allard (2-0, 3.50 ERA) will take the mound for the Phillies, looking to provide some much-needed consistency at the back end of the rotation. On the flip side, Luis Severino (10-6, 3.74 ERA) is on a tear, having allowed just two runs in September.

Lindor’s Status: Francisco Lindor’s sore back could be a game-changer, but manager Carlos Mendoza is hopeful the Mets’ star shortstop will be ready to go.

Playoff Atmosphere: Both teams are playing with a playoff mentality, knowing that every game could shift the standings and impact their postseason fate.

As the Mets and Phillies continue this intense series, both teams are laser-focused on securing wins to boost their playoff chances. Saturday’s game, with Allard and Severino on the mound, promises to be another must-watch chapter in what’s shaping up to be an epic finish to the regular season.