St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates Picks and Predictions September 17th 2024

From Busch Stadium in St. Louis, we have the Pirates and Cardinals facing off in an NL Central matchup. This one gets started at 7:45 PM ET, and the Cardinals are favored on the money line, with the odds sitting at -138 compared to the Pirates at +118. The over/under line is at 8 runs.

Pittsburgh will be starting Bailey Falter, while the Cardinals are sending Lance Lynn to the mound. The Pirates are 71-79 this season, while the Cardinals are at .500, with a record of 75-75. St. Louis is currently 3rd in the NL Central, while the Pirates are 5th.

Pittsburgh vs. St. Louis Key Information

• Teams: Pirates at Cardinals
• Where: Busch Stadium St. Louis
• Date: Tuesday, September 17th
• Betting Odds STL -138 | PIT +118 O/U 8

The Pirates Can Win If…

Bailey Falter gets the start for the Pirates today and will be looking to build off his last outing, where he didn’t give up a run. In that start vs. the Marlins, he went 7 1/3 innings and didn’t give up a homer. Looking back further, he has given up at least one homer in three straight starts. Falter’s ERA for the season is 4.20, along with a record of 8-7. Opponents are batting .255 off the left-hander this season. Per nine innings, he has 6.23 strikeouts and 2.73 walks.

As a team, the Pirates are averaging 4.2 runs per game, which is 21st in the league. They have been slightly better at home, averaging 4.3 runs per game. Overall, the Pirates are 23rd in home runs and are also near the bottom of the league in terms of batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage. One positive for the Pirates is that they have the 8th best BABIP in the league this season.

Andrew McCutchen has been one of the Pirates’ top power threats this season, with 20 homers, but he has struggled at the plate of late, going just 2/13 in his last four games. Overall, he is batting just .237 for the season. Bryan Reynolds has been a bright spot for the Pirates, as he is batting .280 for the season and leads the team with 85 RBIs and 22 homers.

• The Pirates are 5-5 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Pirates are 2-3 vs. the run line.
• Pittsburgh has an over/under record of 4-6 in their last ten games.
• The Pirates have an average of 2.2 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten road games, the Pirates are 4-6
• Looking back across the Pirates last five games as the favorite, they are 4-1
• Pittsburgh has gone 1-2 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Pirates have averaged 2.9 runs per game on offense

The Cardinals Can Win If…

St. Louis is sending right-hander Lance Lynn to the mound today vs. the Pirates. He has made 22 starts this year and has a record of 6-4 with a 3.96 ERA. Lynn’s WHIP for the season is 1.36, and opponents are batting .242 off him this year. In his 22 appearances, Lynn has turned in six quality starts. The right-hander has a BB/9 figure of 3.4 compared to 8.41 strikeouts per nine innings. Looking back at his most recent outing, Lynn finished with a no-decision vs. the Reds, giving up one earned run in five innings of work. He struck out seven in that outing.

Heading into today’s game, the Cardinals are 25th in the MLB at 4.1 runs per game. They are also in the bottom half of the league in home runs and have a team batting average of just .246. St. Louis does have two players who have gone deep over 20 times this season, with Alec Burleson and Paul Goldschmidt both having 21 homers. Burleson also leads the team with 73 RBIs.

Over his last seven games, Brendan Donovan has gone 8/23, which is good for a batting average of .348. He also has one home run and three RBIs during this stretch. Jordan Walker comes into the game on a three-game hitting streak but is batting just .208 over his last nine games.

• The Cardinals are 4-6 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Cardinals are 4-1 vs. the run line.
• St. Louis has an over/under record of 2-7-1 in their last ten games.
• The Cardinals have an average of 3.4 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten home games, the Cardinals are 5-5
• Looking back across the Cardinals last five games as the favorite, they are 3-2
• St. Louis has gone 1-2 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Cardinals have averaged 4.6 runs per game on offense

Lance Lynn Aims to Continue Milestone Season as Cardinals Face Pirates

The St. Louis Cardinals will turn to Lance Lynn on Tuesday as they seek to extend their momentum against the Pittsburgh Pirates in the second game of a four-game series at Busch Stadium. Fresh off a 4-0 shutout victory in the series opener, the Cardinals will be hoping Lynn can build on his milestone-filled season and recent strong performances.

Lance Lynn’s Milestone Season

Lynn (6-4, 3.96 ERA) recently celebrated crossing two significant career marks, notching his 2,000th strikeout and surpassing 2,000 innings. He returned from a right knee injury last Wednesday, holding the Cincinnati Reds to just one run over five innings, while striking out seven in a 2-1 Cardinals victory.

Manager Oliver Marmol praised Lynn’s competitive spirit, which has energized the Cardinals during his second stint with the team. The veteran right-hander has been sharp against the Pirates this season, posting a 2.89 ERA in two starts. Over his career, Lynn holds a 7-9 record with a 5.13 ERA in 26 appearances against Pittsburgh.

With the Cardinals out of playoff contention, the focus has been on player development and seeing how Lynn can contribute moving forward. His performance on Tuesday will be crucial as the Cardinals continue evaluating their rotation for next season.

Pirates’ Bailey Falter Looks to Build on Strong Start

The Pittsburgh Pirates will counter with left-hander Bailey Falter (8-7, 4.20 ERA), who is coming off one of his best starts of the season. Last Wednesday, Falter threw 7 1/3 shutout innings, allowing just two hits and striking out five in a 2-0 victory over the Miami Marlins.

Manager Derek Shelton lauded Falter’s execution of his fastball and slider, calling it one of the left-hander’s most impressive outings in the past two years. However, Falter has had mixed results against the Cardinals. He took a loss in his only start against St. Louis this season, allowing three runs on eight hits in four innings. Over his career, Falter holds a 1-1 record with a 4.08 ERA in four appearances against St. Louis.

Young Talent in Focus for Pittsburgh

The Pirates continue to integrate young talent into their lineup, including infield/outfield prospect Nick Yorke, who joined the team after being acquired at the trade deadline. Yorke made his debut at second base in Monday’s game, although he went 0-for-3 at the plate. Shelton expressed optimism about Yorke’s development, indicating that the remaining two weeks of the season will be important for assessing his role in Pittsburgh’s future plans.

Center fielder Oneil Cruz missed Monday’s game due to soreness stemming from a previous ankle injury, but Shelton suggested Cruz could return to the lineup on Tuesday. The Pirates also saw reliever Kyle Nicolas exit Monday’s game in the eighth inning due to a side injury. His condition will be closely monitored ahead of Game 2.

Cardinals Look to Sustain Momentum

With Lance Lynn back in form and several key players contributing, the Cardinals will look to continue their strong play. Monday’s win featured solo home runs from Andrew Knizner and Paul Goldschmidt, while the bullpen helped close out the shutout. As Lynn takes the mound on Tuesday, St. Louis will hope to sustain this momentum as they aim for a series win against their division rivals.

For the Pirates, bouncing back from Monday’s loss will require both strong pitching from Bailey Falter and contributions from their young core. With the season winding down, the Pirates’ focus remains on development, making every performance crucial for players like Yorke and Cruz.

Injury Updates

• Cardinals: St. Louis is monitoring several players for injuries, though Lynn is expected to be fully healthy following his return from a knee issue.
• Pirates: In addition to Oneil Cruz’s status, the team will evaluate Kyle Nicolas after his early exit in Game 1. Nick Yorke will continue to see playing time as the Pirates assess their future roster.

What’s at Stake

For the Cardinals, the final games of the season are about building for the future and seeing what their veteran arms, like Lance Lynn, can provide moving forward. For the Pirates, the focus remains on developing young talent and evaluating their roster heading into next year. Both teams will be looking to finish the series strong, with each game providing valuable insight as they look toward 2024.

The Lean

For a money-line pick, we are leaning towards the Pirates to come out on top on the road vs. the Cardinals. And as for how we would play the over/under line, we would go with the over, as this is projected to be the 6th highest-scoring game of the day, and this one has the 4th highest total hits projection. St. Louis starter Lance Lynn has the lowest projected innings pitched total among today’s starters, and Bailey Falter is our lowest projected starter in terms of strikeouts.