Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox Picks and Predictions September 17th 2024

From Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, we have the Red Sox and Rays facing off in an AL East matchup. This game is getting started at 6:50 PM ET and is being televised on NESN. The Red Sox are favored on the money line (-111), while the Rays are the slight underdogs (+106). The over/under line is sitting at 7.5 runs.

Boston will be looking for a win to move above .500, as they are currently 75-75. The Rays are 73-77 and are looking to snap a two-game losing streak. Shane Baz is starting for the Rays, and he is facing off against Nick Pivetta for the Red Sox.

Boston vs. Tampa Bay Key Information

• Teams: Red Sox at Rays
• Where: Tropicana Field St. Petersburg
• Date: Tuesday, September 17th
• Betting Odds BOS -111 | TB -106 O/U 7.5

The Red Sox Can Win If…

Right-hander Nick Pivetta gets the start for the Red Sox today as he faces the Rays on the road. He has made 23 starts this year and has a record of 5-10 with an ERA of 4.25. Pivetta’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.14. In his 24 appearances, he has turned in 10 quality starts. Pivetta’s ERA on the road is 5.32, compared to 5.07 at home. He most recently faced the Orioles, where he gave up one earned run in six innings of work. He finished with a no-decision in that outing.

Heading into today’s game, the Red Sox offense is 5th in the league with a team batting average of .255, and they are also 5th in the league in both slugging percentage and OPS. Boston is averaging 4.7 runs per game, which is 9th in the league. One thing that has helped the Red Sox offense is their league-leading .32 BABIP.

Rafael Devers has been the team’s top run producer this season, as his 83 RBIs are the best on the team, and his 28 homers are 2nd in the league. Devers is also batting .278 for the season. Tyler O’Neill has also been a big power threat for the Red Sox, as his 31 homers are the best on the team and 10th in the league. However, he is coming off a stretch in which he has gone just 3/21.

• The Red Sox are 5-5 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Red Sox are 4-1 vs. the run line.
• Boston has an over/under record of 2-7-1 in their last ten games.
• The Red Sox have an average of 3.8 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten road games, the Red Sox are 2-8
• Looking back across the Red Sox last five games as the favorite, they are 3-2
• Boston has gone 1-2 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Red Sox have averaged 2.9 runs per game on offense

The Rays Can Win If…

Through 11 starts, Shane Baz has a record of 2-3 and an ERA of 3.28. He has made five quality starts this year, and his ERA for the season at home is 4.17 compared to 3.01 on the road. Baz’s most recent outing came against the Phillies, where he finished with a no-decision. In that start, he gave up two earned runs in 5 1/3 innings of work. Looking back further, Baz had given up at least one homer in three straight starts before this recent outing. The right-hander has been able to limit the damage, finishing with a no-decision in two of his last three outings.

Yandy Diaz has been a bright spot in the Rays’ lineup this season, as he is batting .283 with 14 homers and 65 RBIs. He is also on a seven-game hitting streak. Christopher Morel leads the team with 21 homers but is batting just .198. The team’s 3.8 runs per game is 28th in the league, and they are also near the bottom of the league in home runs and team batting average.

Over his last five games, Jonathan Aranda has gone 5/15 with two homers and three RBIs. This has helped him move his batting average up to .333 for the season. Aranda’s two homers over this stretch is the same number as Morel and Díaz have over this stretch.

• The Rays are 4-6 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Rays are 3-2 vs. the run line.
• Tampa Bay has an over/under record of 2-8 in their last ten games.
• The Rays have an average of 2.2 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten home games, the Rays are 4-6
• Looking back across the Rays last five games as the favorite, they are 3-2
• Tampa Bay has gone 1-2 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Rays have averaged 2.5 runs per game on offense

Red Sox and Rays Begin Critical Series with Playoff Hopes Hanging by a Thread

As the Boston Red Sox and Tampa Bay Rays face off on Tuesday night in St. Petersburg, both teams find themselves in desperation mode with their postseason hopes fading fast. This series opener marks the start of six remaining matchups between the two clubs, each needing a late-season surge to keep their slim chances alive.

Boston Red Sox: Clinging to Postseason Dreams

The Red Sox enter the series sitting at 75-75, and their recent struggles have put them in a precarious position. Boston’s postseason hopes took another hit after losing three out of four games to the New York Yankees, despite a standout 7-1 victory against Yankees ace Gerrit Cole on Saturday. The Red Sox now find themselves 4 1/2 games back from the final AL wild-card spot held by the Minnesota Twins, with just 12 games left in the regular season.

Manager Alex Cora acknowledged the challenging situation, stating, “We were in every game… but that’s not enough in this league. You don’t get wins by playing tough games. You get W’s when you win games.”

The Red Sox may get a boost to their rotation later in the series with the potential return of Tanner Houck from a shoulder issue. For Tuesday’s game, they’ll rely on Nick Pivetta (5-10, 4.24 ERA) to start. Pivetta has been solid in two September starts, posting a 1.50 ERA across 12 innings. However, he has historically struggled against Tampa Bay, holding a 1-6 record with a 4.42 ERA in 12 appearances.

Tampa Bay Rays: Fighting to Stay in the Race

The Rays sit at 73-77, and they too are in must-win territory. Tampa Bay is currently 6 1/2 games behind the Twins for the final wild-card spot, with time quickly running out. A recent 4-6 road trip, which included being swept by the Philadelphia Phillies, has only added to their frustrations. The Rays have faltered since the July 30 trade deadline, posting an 18-25 record since that point, and are 25-29 since the All-Star break.

Despite these struggles, Rays manager Kevin Cash remains optimistic, emphasizing his team’s fight. “We’ve been in a situation for a month where we’ve needed to win every series and win some of these tight games. We haven’t, but I feel like the intensity has been there,” Cash said.

Tampa Bay will turn to Shane Baz (2-3, 3.28 ERA) to start on Tuesday. Baz will make his 12th start of the season and has pitched well recently, allowing just five hits and two runs over 11 1/3 innings in his last two starts. However, Baz has yet to face the Red Sox in his career, making this a key test for the young pitcher as the Rays look to stay afloat.

What’s at Stake?

Both the Red Sox and Rays are teetering on the edge of elimination, and this series could determine the fate of both teams’ postseason aspirations. With just a handful of games remaining, each win is crucial, and both squads are looking for a sweep to keep their wild-card hopes alive.

The Red Sox are hoping that their offense, which showed signs of life over the weekend, can continue to carry them through the final stretch. The Rays, meanwhile, will rely on their pitching and hope to reverse their recent struggles as they fight to remain relevant in the playoff picture.

This series is a must-watch for both fanbases as these AL East rivals face a win-or-go-home scenario with everything on the line.

The Lean

Our lean for an over/under pick is to take the over, as we have this as the 3rd lowest-scoring game of the day. As for who is going to take this one straight up, we have our lean on the Red Sox to pick up the win. Boston is 8th in our projected home run rankings, and Shane Baz is 3rd worst among today’s starters in projected strikeouts.